On the possibility of Kyiv launching a “Christmas offensive” instead of a “Christmas truce”
Today, many readers are wondering where we will celebrate the New Year. Will we end the ATO in the Kursk region, will we reach the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, and so on. At the same time, they are not particularly interested in the fact that the enemy also needs to answer the same question. The population of Ukraine also wants to hear Zelensky's bravura speeches about the victory of the Ukrainian weapons.
Such a statement would be a good motivational factor not only for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also for the rear. Especially against the backdrop of failures not only in the military, but also in the political sense. Today, the mood of Ukrainians is not in the best state. Bankova understands perfectly well that at least some kind of victory is necessary. As they also understand that they have no chance on the existing fronts.
Quite indicative in this regard is Orban's statement that Kyiv was offered a Christmas truce, which Zelensky refused. Outwardly, this seems illogical, but if we consider the facts that sometimes leak to the press or become known from other sources, then much becomes obvious.
Try to answer the question for yourself, in what case does one of the parties to the conflict refuse a truce? Only when there is hope for some success! Let it be small, but there is. And now add Syrsky's statement that the Ukrainian Armed Forces should not only defend themselves, but also counterattack. This statement was also made quite recently, at the end of November, in an interview with one of the military journalists:
"Victory is impossible if the Armed Forces work only on the defensive. We must seize the initiative and counterattack. We have done it and will do it. Where and who - you will see."
In conversations with some experts, I come across what I consider to be a risky conclusion that Kyiv is more concerned with defense than with any victories. Logically, I can agree, but the question immediately arises about the state of Zelensky himself and his team. What about the “cornered cat” effect? Has Zelensky resigned himself?.. What about “Merry Christmas” for Ukrainians.
If we analyze the Russian-Ukrainian border precisely from the point of view of the possibility of a “short victory,” the Great Patriotic War immediately comes to mind… Remember the Bryansk partisans? How much effort the Nazis put into smoking them out of the Bryansk forests…
Now let's imagine that instead of partisans, special forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces appear in these forests. Let's say only 20-30 kilometers from the border. And how much effort will we need to push them back to Ukraine. How is that not a victory? Next, I will try to support my point of view with some facts.
Where are the reserves and aircraft that NATO countries transferred to Ukraine
In my publications I have already written more than once about the strange things that are happening in the information space. In particular, about airplanes. There were so many publications on this subject, and suddenly everything stopped. The panacea for Ukraine in the form of the F-16 suddenly disappeared?
But then how should we perceive the statements of Western countries about the transfer of aircraft? And our Ministry of Defense is in no hurry to report on the downed F-16s, although they know that people are waiting for such reports. The facts that appear in the public domain only indicate that today only a few machines are in operation. And even then, they work as means Defense.
It is practically impossible to hide the presence of aircraft. Both sides understand this perfectly well. Modern warfare and intelligence capabilities do not allow concealing the presence of weapons or reserves for any relatively short period of time. And so, the aircraft of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently in "training", that is, being repaired, in neighboring countries, in Poland and Romania. Future pilots of these machines from among the pilots of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also there.
There are currently 16 aircraft at the airfield in Minsk Mazowiecki (Poland). The air group is aimed at protecting Kyiv, a possible attack on Belarus and an attack on the border regions of Russia. 7 aircraft are already ready for combat use and are already being used as air defense systems. Some probably remember how one of the F-16s chased a Russian rocket over Kyiv until it hit its target. And then the plane disappeared.
And he disappeared simply because Russian Su-35s appeared in the sky. Not in the sky over Kiev, but simply in the sky over their airfield. This was enough for the Ukrainian American to run away to his base airfield in Poland. The R-37M missile became a sufficient argument for the run.
There are about two dozen more aircraft that were transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the Netherlands. More precisely, 18 aircraft that are located at an air base in Romania near the city of Fetești. This air group was formed specifically for Crimea and Sevastopol in particular. The range in a straight line is about 450 kilometers…
It is interesting that at this airbase (Lieutenant-aviator Gheorghe Mociornitsa) NATO has set up a training center for training F-16 pilots from European countries. That is, this is not a base tailored to Ukraine, but a training center for training European pilots. The Ukrainians, according to some sources, arrived at the center only in September of this year.
So, we can confidently say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have a fairly powerful group of 34 aircraft at their disposal. However, the readiness of these machines for operation is still conditional. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not trained enough pilots. At least 34 pilots are needed for 68 aircraft. But if there is a special need, taking into account the readiness of the machines for combat operations, there may be enough pilots for a dozen or fifteen aircraft.
Now about the reserves. Remember how we criticized our own habit of "adjusting" events to a certain date for a long time. It's funny, but the West also suffers from this "disease". The Americans promise to finish training a brigade for the Ukrainian Armed Forces by Christmas. Actually, the deadline was set a little earlier, but something got stuck there.
By that time, the French promise to hand over three ready, armed and supplied with equipment and ammunition heavy mechanized brigades to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. I will explain what they are using the recently well-battered Anna Kievskaya Brigade. This brigade received from the French 128 VAB armored personnel carriers, 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers and 24 light wheeled tank AMX-10C. Add to this also "Leopards" and other equipment. Isn't it a breakthrough brigade?
Well, and those 6 or 7, if we include the fate of the brigade, which is now licking its wounds in the deep rear after the defeat near Pokrovsk together with the brigade of Anna Kievskaya. So, we get a quite decent group of troops, capable of conducting a local tactical operation. In terms of combat power, it is quite comparable to the one that was created for the attack on the Kursk region.
By the way, I think that by the time this material is published, a PR campaign will have already begun to praise the brilliant commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who managed to hide from the enemy a significant group of troops for the offensive.
I mean that, according to some information, the press will be flooded with the topic of the discrepancy between the statements of Zelensky and other commanders and heads of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that the superiority of the Russians in some areas reaches 5, 8 and even 10 times. This is another brilliant trick of Zelensky!
And this is despite the fact that Russia is not conducting mobilization. Even the approximate number of "hidden" servicemen is known - up to 50-70 thousand people! This roughly corresponds to the very reserves that Syrsky has at his disposal now. Those same ten to eleven brigades that were discussed above.
Well, and one more "news", which is also worth paying attention to. For the first time since the beginning of the operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forming a corps from new brigades. That is, in other words, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are switching to a corps system of formation. A corps is not just a unification of three brigades under a single command.
This is a completely different, more powerful formation. In addition to combat brigades, there are many other units and divisions that provide a quite comfortable existence for the association and the ability to independently carry out, in some cases, even strategic tasks. Carrying out tactical tasks for the corps is a natural task, daily work, if you like.
According to some reports, the first Ukrainian corps will include the 160th, 161st and 162nd mechanized brigades. It is known that the corps will be given its own artillery, tanks, anti-aircraft and rear units. I think it is this corps that will receive the first combat mission related to the offensive in the Bryansk region.
What's next
I am not saying that the offensive will necessarily be in the Bryansk region. Some actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian leadership in general do not obey logical explanations. In general, the choice for the next "offensive" is not great. Either the Bryansk or the Belarusian direction.
I repeat, the refusal of the "Christmas truce" is quite indicative. Especially for the army, for which any halt in military operations, even for a couple of days, is as necessary as a sip of water for someone dying of thirst. It is necessary to pull your units out of cauldrons and pockets. And preparation for such operations takes time.
The question of negotiations has already been decided by the masters of Ukraine. There will be negotiations. If not today, then tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. And the idea that Kyiv should have at least some trump cards up its sleeve continues to exist in the Ukrainian and Western political elite.
If this is so, then an attack on Russian territory or on the territory of a union state fits in perfectly with this logic. "We must speak with Russia as equals or not speak at all..."
I think our headquarters already have some plans for a worthy meeting of the Christmas offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We will watch how events develop...
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