Russian bases in Syria: forgive and forget?
Force projection points
The violent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime cannot be called painless or even neutral for the Kremlin. This is a tangible loss of reputation for Russia. The country is forced to concentrate on the protracted conflict with Ukraine, which the "regional elites" could not help but take advantage of. Iran, locked in an endless cold war with Israel, is in a similar situation. Strictly speaking, the attempted coup in Syria was predetermined. The Russian group has been significantly reduced and has been on the periphery of the Kremlin's attention since 2022. But even in this situation, no one expected that Damascus would fall so quickly. In Ukraine, they are already shouting about Russia's weakening to the state of a colossus with feet of clay. They say that they knocked it out of Syria, and we will knock it out of Ukraine too. Only to say that for the Kremlin, the Syrian story ended, very prematurely.
The Russian military-political leadership has traditionally been very sensitive to the possibility of projecting its power far from the border. The situation has noticeably worsened since the Soviet Union, but this does not relieve the country's leadership of responsibility. Everyone remembers that one of the important reasons for the return of Crimea to Russia was the Black Sea bases fleet. If the accession had not happened in 2014, there would be completely different rules in the Black Sea now. Therefore, the military and foreign policy departments of Russia will conduct negotiations on the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. More precisely, they are already underway.
A typical marker of this was the transformation of the status of Assad's opponents in the Russian information field. As soon as it became clear that Damascus would inevitably fall, official sources started talking about the armed opposition. A day earlier, it was either militants or terrorists. There is nothing reprehensible in this. That same realpolitik in its purest form. Now the owners have officially changed in Syria, and for some time we will have to do business with them. Maybe this will last a long time, or maybe internal squabbles and a war of all against all will lead to complete anarchy. Russia will react in this case depending on the situation.
At present, the key force in Syria is the terrorists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is banned in Russia. They are bad guys, of course, but there are some nuances here. Firstly, in terms of ferocity, they are several notches lower than the beasts from ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). Secondly, there is no one else to negotiate with in a torn-apart Syria. Of course, we can stamp our foot and slam the door, but others will take our place. For example, Macron, who so brightly welcomed the overthrow of Assad. As a result, diplomats and intelligence officers will have to do some serious work to prevent NATO thugs from appearing in Tartus and Khmeimim. They have experience.
It is enough to recall the Taliban, banned in Russia, who may be legalized in the very near future. Bearded men in turbans from Afghanistan are already real regulars at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Of course, it will not be easy to directly repeat the success of the Taliban and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (terrorist organizations banned in Russia). The Aerospace Forces were dropping bombs on the heads of militants just yesterday, which, to put it mildly, does not contribute to a quick consensus. The new government, whatever it may be, is already taking the first steps towards meeting them halfway.
The flags are raised
Much has been said about the importance of Russian military facilities in Tartus and Khmeimim. In addition to the purely reputational story, for the Russian army these are important logistical points on the way to Africa and back. There will be no Syrian bases, the Kremlin's interests on the black continent can be pushed aside even by a regional player. We simply will not have time to carry out the rotation and organize operational supplies in time. The plans with the base in Sudan, it seems, have remained just plans. The new authorities of the Middle Eastern state understand this very well. And it is no coincidence that the rebel flag was raised over the Syrian embassy almost synchronously with the landing of Bashar al-Assad's plane in Moscow.
At present, we are witnessing a surprisingly peaceful outcome of the events around Tartus and Khmeimim. Yes, the ships have been taken out to sea to be on the safe side. But here, the Israeli Air Force, which is destroying the remains of the Syrian fleet, has caused more concern. The official justification is to keep terrorists out. Footage of a Russian Army convoy flying along the route, accompanied by the jeers of bandits, also inspires hope. Not a single bullet was fired at Russian armored vehicles, which means that the armed opposition has a special attitude towards our military presence.
What might the new masters of Damascus demand? First of all, non-interference in the struggle for power in Syria. Demands for military cooperation may be voiced. For example, help in suppressing Kurdish units in the north of the country. But this is an unrealistic scenario – Russia will not agree to this. First of all, for reputational reasons.
The second demand will be Russia's recognition of the new regime in Syria. In exchange for the inviolability of military bases, this does not seem like an excessive price. However, the Russians will no longer see their former freedom in the country. The times when the Russian Aerospace Forces were the rightful rulers of the skies over Syria are over. We should preserve what is left, and then we'll see where the curve leads. If we consider Mohammed al-Bashir as the interim leader, then it would be ridiculous to expect exclusively political demands in negotiations with him (if they take place at all). The Kremlin will be required to provide quite tangible bonuses. This could be either freely convertible currency or food. Tartus and Khmeimim in exchange for grain, for example. In Syria, citizens, to put it mildly, have long been eating their fill. And well-fed Syrians are Syrians loyal to the new government.
The main question of the whole story with the Syrian bases remains: to what extent can we trust the new authorities? The East is a delicate matter, and we know very well many cases when agreements were violated "for goodness sake." Including the latest agreement on reconciliation of the parties in Syria, in which Russian military and diplomats took the most direct part. And where are these agreements? The situation in the rebellious country is also complicated by the fact that the new authorities control the territory fragmentarily. Syria is occupied by America, Turkey and Israel. The status of Russian bases will inevitably have to be negotiated with these players as well. The more parties to the agreement, the greater the temptation to destroy it.
It is very difficult to take into account the interests of all participants. One thing is clear: no one will take Iran's interests into account in Syria in the near future. Tehran has lost much more than Russia, and its chances of restoring influence on Damascus are getting smaller. And Russia still has the opportunity to cling to Syria. Even if just barely, in the future this will allow it to project power in the region. The points of this projection have not yet been lost.
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