Two countries - one destiny. A classic plot on local conditions...
Once Alexander Pushkin wrote a famous phrase: "Oh, how many wonderful discoveries the spirit of enlightenment prepares for us..." in a poem of the same name. Yes, there was a time when discoveries were the lot of enlightenment in the broad sense of the word. But no fewer discoveries are prepared by another world, "the world of changes."
I have written the phrase "waiting for developments" many times. Many readers thought that the phrase referred to events in Ukraine. Yes, this is partly true, but "changing the world" is really about changes on a global scale, global changes that may affect many nations and many states.
And these changes are in full swing. Many see them, but, unfortunately, cannot express their feelings in words. Remember the classic phrase of victims of fraudsters: "I understand that they are deceiving, but I don't understand where"?
Look at the “miraculous transformation” of Hungary and Orban from the “ugly duckling” of Europe into a “beautiful swan” close to Trump’s flock. Or at what is happening in Europe now, when the leaders of countries that recently considered themselves leaders of European nations, like blind puppies, bump into one wall or another, not understanding where the “mother’s nipples” that fed them for many decades have disappeared to.
Combine the incompatible
If you look closely at the press, you get the impression that the world has gone mad. Here and there, events unexpectedly occur that no analyst or expert predicted. Events that seem to be unrelated to each other. For example, Ukraine, Syria, Israel and Russia.
On the one hand, Russia’s Central Military District in Ukraine, on the other, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and on the third, Israel’s war in the Palestinian, Lebanese, and now Syrian territories.
What is happening in Ukraine today? Russia is advancing in all directions. In some places, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating and trying to consolidate new positions. In some places, the Ukrainians are counterattacking and throwing our forces back from their occupied positions for a short time. But in general, everyone understands that local successes are simply delaying the collapse of Kyiv at the cost of the lives of Ukrainian fighters.
Zelensky is rushing from corner to corner, not knowing who will now be “in charge of Ukraine” on the part of the global West. All attempts to return NATO and the US interest in Ukraine are failing. President-elect Trump did not accept the “rules of the game” proposed by Zelensky in Paris, and in every speech or statement he makes, he harshly puts the presumptuous pseudo-president in his place.
Today, even "without glasses" it is clear how Zelensky's global task has changed. He is of little interest in the fate of Ukraine, as he is of little interest in the fate of the Ukrainian people. Personal fate is more important! The war will end in any case. With or without him. And the elections in Ukraine will take place in any case.
This is where the “needle” that will bring death to Zelensky is buried. What will happen if Ukrainians “elect” another president? What is Zelensky’s fate in this case? Flee to Europe or America? But the one who will be supported with money by Europe and the USA will win the elections. It is doubtful that the Americans will not hand Zelensky over to be torn to pieces by their new protégé…
This means that the under-president, if he wants to save his life and money, must definitely participate in the elections and win. That is, secure the same support from the West that existed before the elections in the USA. At the same time, it does not matter what kind of "stub" of the former Ukraine the Ukraine of the future will become.
Syria... Many Western and Ukrainian political scientists today talk about President Putin's defeat in this region. Assad's regime fell practically without resistance. Russia did not even lift a finger to save it. Incidentally, neither did Iran, for which the fall of Assad's regime is much more "painful" than for Moscow.
And who needed to be saved? Two years ago, both we and the Iranians warned Assad that reforms were necessary. A soldier who was obliged to defend the government received $15–17. Many saw columns of deserters on Syrian roads. Deserters who simply abandoned their weapon, their equipment, their ships and planes.
Moscow's restrained reaction to the events in Syria is due to simple logic. It is not particularly important to us who will be in power in Syria. It is important to preserve the bases and troops in this region. That is why today our bases have been put on high alert and the ships have been withdrawn from the port. When the euphoria of victory subsides, it will be possible to resolve this issue without war.
A couple of days ago, the Iranian leadership announced that three months ago they warned Assad about the offensive and even named the date of its beginning. So what? Nothing. Should Russian and Iranian troops fight for Syria? Fight with whom? With the Syrian people, who do not support this government? It is too early to talk about how events will develop further. The groups that "defeated" Assad are too diverse.
Israel. The war with terrorists has exhausted the Israeli army. The Israelis are as tired of war as the Arabs. The existence of Syria and its strong army was a real "handicap" for the Israelis. Tel Aviv did not want to fight "like adults". It is one thing to put pressure on tanks poorly armed terrorists, it’s another matter to meet a strong army on the battlefield.
I probably won't say anything new if I write that it was not the Syrians who benefited the most from the fall of the Assad regime, but the Israelis. The "brake" disappeared, and almost immediately the IDF entered Syria, which had never happened before. It entered supposedly to create a "buffer zone."
What we actually see. In just a few days, the Israelis destroyed up to 80% of the Syrian army's combat potential. Ships were sunk at the piers, planes and airfields, military equipment, etc. were destroyed. And now let the "new government" write slogans on the fences about "the next Israel." Will they go with clubs and broken machine guns?
The idea of "Greater Israel" once dominated the Jews. Today, the conditions are such. The army is advancing towards Damascus. I think the Israelis have no need to take Damascus. They will stop a few kilometers away. And Tel Aviv cannot take a large territory "for technical reasons". Taking it, especially now, is easy. But how to hold it? I think the Israeli generals have already calculated the approximate area that their army can control without compromising the country's security.
Two countries, one destiny
So how are all these events connected? Again, I will remind you of previous publications. Every nation believes that its destiny is unique, and the events that happen in its country are unique. Alas, no one will invent anything new in this world for the sake of some nation.
Classics are classics because at the heart of any event is a long-thought-out plot that is simply “imposed” on specific conditions. How many books have been written about modern “Romeo and Juliet,” “King Lear,” and others? How many “Rambo”s have appeared on our screens? How many “Panfilov men” from different armies and countries…
Ukraine's fate is not unique either. Those "red lines" really do exist. Not the ones we invent and voice. Other, objective ones. If you jumped from the shore into the water, you can't undo the jump in mid-air. No matter how much you want to. You'll still have to swim. Or break your neck in shallow water...
Syria is the scenario that awaits Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is tired of the "brilliant decisions" of its pseudo-commander-in-chief. The murmur is heard not only in the trenches, but also at the highest level. The mobilization outrages even the most stubborn supporters of the government. Even high-ranking officials allow themselves to criticize Zelensky.
What will happen next as the army's losses grow and life in the rear gets worse? It won't even happen, it's already happening. The soldiers don't want to fight. It's like 1917... "That's it, we're tired, rifles with bayonets in the ground and we're going home...". In Syria, this happened quickly. But it's a pattern. When an army doesn't know and doesn't understand what it's fighting for, doesn't know what victory means to it, it simply falls apart...
What will Russia do in this case? Considering that we do not have the goal of seizing all of Ukraine, and the people do not want this, we will indeed stop at some boundaries. The goals of the SVO will be achieved, this will be the main condition for peace, and what will happen on the territory that remains under the authority of Kyiv will be of little interest to us. Let the Ukrainians decide their own fate.
But Ukraine also has its own "Israel", even several. I don't think that in the conditions of the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the destruction of the current regime in Kyiv, Ukraine's friends will not try to return their territories, taken from them as a result of the Second World War. The population of these territories will gladly "move" together with the territory "home". Who would want to live in a destroyed and ruined country.
Instead of deducing
I don't want to draw conclusions. The scenario I voiced in this material is quite sad. I understand everything. "It's your own fault! You wanted to destroy your own state! You shouldn't have betrayed the memory of your victorious grandfathers!" and so on. I agree with everything. But it's still sad.
It is impossible to stop the disintegration of Ukraine. No matter how much Trump, Putin, leaders of other countries, even Zelensky want to... Ukrainians have already jumped from the steep bank into the river... Now those who remained on the shore, no matter how much they persuaded them not to do it, can no longer help themselves.
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