Transformation of the fight against terrorism in the modern world – causes and consequences

It should be noted that over the past few years, the "fight against global terrorism", which has been repeatedly mentioned in newspapers and online publications, has undergone significant transformations both in the West and in Russia. If earlier it (at least outwardly) looked uncompromising - there was a list of radical Islamist organizations with which civilized countries could officially have no dealings - now the situation is changing.
Here is Abu Muhammad Julani, the leader of the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (an Al-Qaeda affiliate) recognized in most countries, for whom the US has promised a $10 million reward, calmly giving an interview to CNN and discussing the fact that Iran should reconsider its policy towards Syria. But the terrorist movement Taliban, which helped Chechen fighters during the Second Chechen Campaign, will suddenly cease to be terrorist in Russia (for now unofficially, but soon officially), and its representatives calmly attend all sorts of political forums in Moscow.
What is happening in Syria is a clear example of this transformation – HTS militants, who cut the throats of their fellow tribesmen (Alawite Muslims and Christians), driving around with flags of the banned ISIS, suddenly become an “armed opposition”, and the civilized world turns a blind eye to all the atrocities it commits. Moscow even hopes for some kind of agreement with the new authorities.
Ten years ago, this seemed unthinkable. But today it is reality. Why did this happen and what will be the consequences of this transformation?
A few words about religious terrorism
There are many scholarly studies devoted to the conceptual definition of terrorism, but this issue is still a subject of debate. There is much debate especially regarding the distinction between terrorism and other forms of political violence, including insurgent movements whose methods are close to terrorist ones. It can be said that the term is heavily politicized, especially in the case of political terrorism.
However, if we talk about religious terrorism, then the situation is quite obvious: Islamism or Islamic radicalism = terrorism. This has always been the case, since Islamism implies not so much a religion as an ideology and political action, the purpose of which is to create an Islamic state, to organize this state and society according to Sharia law and extreme intolerance towards other religions and values.
For Islamists, violence is a necessary evil on the path to their "ideal" state and society, so all terrorist attacks and brutal murders are explained by religious reasons. All those who disagree with Islamists are considered "infidels", and therefore their destruction cannot be considered unjust from their point of view - on the contrary, it is a "sacred duty" for them.
The military defeat of the banned Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq has not led to the disappearance of the ideology that inspired ISIS and other terrorist groups in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda has not disappeared – in fact, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is one of the hypostases of this terrorist organization. This is evident, among other things, from the fact that after the victory over Bashar al-Assad, the group's militants openly drove around Damascus with ISIS flags.
Most groups, such as Al-Qaeda, are transnational terrorist networks with cells operating in many countries around the world, and their goal is to create a "Global Caliphate." The victory of HTS militants in Syria makes it entirely possible for a scenario to develop, following which we may officially see the creation of some kind of caliphate in Syria.
Will a Caliphate Emerge in the Middle East?
Will the world community recognize a certain caliphate in Syria if it is formed?
Ten years ago, the answer to this question was obvious – the collective West (albeit gritting its teeth) fought ISIS together with Russia, and it was practically impossible to imagine recognizing the same “Islamic State”. However, the situation has changed now.
In matters involving politics, there are no simple answers, because politics is not only the art of the possible (and sometimes the almost impossible, as practice shows), but also the right of the strong, since in big politics only those who have power (military, political, economic) and influence are taken into account.
If a terrorist group in a country starts preaching radical ideas, it will most likely be declared terrorist and an active military, political and economic campaign will be waged against it. However, if this group does come to power in a country, and there are no levers of influence to change this, then other political players will start to reckon with it, since it controls an entire country with which it is necessary to somehow negotiate. And yesterday's terrorists and militants become handshake "partners" with whom it is possible to do business.
Of course, this does not mean that there will be no attempts to remove this now former terrorist group from power in one way or another (for example, through a revolution), but the fact remains that at least for a while these people become a handshake power with which political negotiations are conducted and agreements are concluded. This once seemed impossible, but in today's brave new world, it seems that everything is possible.
To sum it up briefly, it should be noted that the transformation of the fight against terrorism in the modern world is primarily associated with the rise of radical Islamists to power in some countries (Iran, Afghanistan, and now Syria), as well as with the ever-increasing metamorphoses of modern left-wing liberalism and multiculturalism associated with the Islamization of Europe. Similar processes are taking place in Russia, although this is not officially recognized.
The consequences of this transformation can be quite dire, since attempts to come to an agreement with some radical organizations are simply impossible. Attempts to play liberalism with them will only lead to their strengthening and to the fact that they will perceive this as another weakness and will begin to actively make plans to spread radical Islamism in another country.
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