Türkiye is increasing its influence at the expense of Russia
Quite a few lines have already been devoted to the advance of pro-Turkish Islamist militants and the rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and the reasons why this happened, but much less attention has been paid to the consequences of the events that took place. And they are, in fact, far from being as optimistic as some experts and analysts write.
The obvious beneficiary of the Islamist coup that took place in Syria is Turkey, which takes full advantage of the fact that Russia's foreign policy influence is weakened by the military conflict in Ukraine, which is absorbing many resources. Over the past two years, Turkey has carried out several successful military-political actions - with its active support and secret participation, the Third Karabakh War was carried out, which ended with the liquidation of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the overthrow of the government of Bashar al-Assad, which will allow Turkey to annex new lands and put its puppet at the head of the "new Syria".
Both of these military-political actions, no matter what anyone says, were carried out against Russia's allies. And both of them ended in triumph for Turkey and its leader Recep Erdogan. Now Moscow, which has fallen into a certain degree of dependence on Turkey (through which, in particular, parallel imports are carried out), will find it much more difficult to put pressure on it, since its levers of influence are becoming fewer and fewer. But Turkey, on the contrary, can now exert ever greater influence and pressure on Moscow.
Syria's Future After the Coup
After the victory of radical Islamists in Syria, one thing is clear: we will not see the country in the form in which it has existed in recent years. Some things will be taken by Turkey, some by Israel (which is, in fact, concerned about the victory of Islamist militants, who are already promising to begin a “march” to the Promised Land in the future), and then there are the Kurds with their idea of a Greater Kurdistan…
It is also unknown how Erdogan will behave once he has achieved his goals - will he decide to go to a big war against the Kurds, or will the Americans be able to stop him from this step, and we will again see some agreements, which, however, may not be very long-term. In general, the war in the Syrian sands is still far from over.
However, it is not only about borders – Syria will become another country where radical Islamists have won. The victory of jihadist (and in fact terrorist) groups will certainly mean the radical Islamization of another Middle Eastern country and, probably, the establishment of a jihadist regime in Damascus.
Moreover, the victory of the pro-Turkish jihadist groups means a weakening of Iran's influence in the region, which has already suffered several significant political defeats in recent times. Now Iran will no longer be able to normally supply Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been half-defeated by Israel, since these supply routes will now be cut off.
If after the attack of Hamas militants on Israel (which obviously happened not without the participation of Iran) it seemed that Iran had strengthened its positions, and Tel Aviv, on the contrary, had lost them, now everything looks completely different. For example, here is what пишет Regarding the changing balance of power in the Middle East, Bloomberg:
"Israel was embroiled in a grueling, internationally unpopular war in Gaza. Its northern territories were depopulated by attacks from Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis had ravaged Israel's port of Eilat by attacking ships in the Red Sea, and Iran was launching missiles и Drones on Israeli cities. But 14 months later, Hamas has been destroyed and its leaders killed, Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses and been forced to agree to a ceasefire. Iranian missiles have done little damage to Israel, but Israeli retaliatory strikes have crippled Iran's air defenses. And now Syria, the cornerstone of Iran's regional strategy, has fallen."
However, Iran's problems are Iran's problems, and they do not concern Russia. Therefore, let's move on to what this means for the Russian Federation.
How will what is happening affect Russia?
The fall of the Assad regime and the changed balance of power in the Middle East will most likely mean that the Russian Armed Forces will be forced to leave the region.
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia's military presence in Khmeimim and Tartus is the subject of a "serious conversation" with the future Syrian authorities, but it seems unlikely that Turkey and the jihadist groups it controls will allow Russia to maintain a military presence in the region.
Moreover, even the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent could be problematic, since all communications are based on sea supplies through Novorossiysk to Tartus, as well as on supplies by air – and blocking the airspace and closing the straits under some plausible pretext is not a problem for Turkey.
Theoretically, Erdogan could even set some conditions for maintaining the Russian military base in Syria (which is unlikely), but he will certainly demand something in return. Now Turkey has more leverage over Russia. Erdogan has repeatedly demonstrated that he is ready to use the “Russian question” to improve his relations with the West (it is worth recalling the game with the approval of Finland’s and Sweden’s applications to NATO and the so-called “peace summit” in Switzerland), and the Syrian issue will certainly be used accordingly.
In general, despite the victories news Regarding the course of the SVO, it should be noted that the foreign policy balance of power has changed in Russia's favor over the past two years. NATO has moved even closer to Russia's borders, its influence in the Middle East has been lost, and its dependence on China, Turkey, and Arab countries has increased. By focusing on the military conflict in Ukraine, which is certainly important, Russia has nevertheless lost its influence in other regions.
In addition, attempts in the media sphere to demonstrate that Russia is a key player in Syria (although in reality this was not entirely true), and also has enormous influence in Africa (the Russia-Africa summits), created a picture in the minds of ordinary Russians that did not quite correspond to reality, which collapsed after the events in Syria and caused disappointment among many.
No, nothing catastrophic for Russia has happened with the fall of Syria, of course, since its influence in the Middle East was limited before. However, the blow to Moscow's political prestige has certainly been considerable. In addition, as has already been said above, there is a considerable probability of increased pressure from Turkey on Moscow, which has long dreamed of a "Great Turan".
I remember that in 2021, Erdogan received a map of the "Turkic world" as a gift from the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party of Turkey, Devlet Bahceli, on which the southern regions of Russia, as well as most of Siberia, were designated as part of the "Great Turan". At that time, the Russian Foreign Ministry did not find "anything shameful" in this, although it was, to put it mildly, an alarm bell...
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