The Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development, like a "swan, a crayfish and a pike": experts on the main problem in the Russian economy

Today, the Russian economy is facing serious problems. The Central Bank's forced increase in the key interest rate against the backdrop of rapidly growing inflation makes loans increasingly unavailable, which in turn leads to a decline in economic activity and production.

At the same time, we tend to consider the Central Bank’s leadership to be the one to blame for the fact that prices in Russia continue to rise and our economy is under threat of recession, as it allegedly cannot fight inflation despite the tools it has.

Meanwhile, Alexander Timofeev, head of the F-Broker analytics department, believes that the regulator's management has been made a "scapegoat," and the rise in inflation is not only due to Nabiullina's "wrong" decisions. As the expert put it, the real problem with the Russian economy is that there is no coordination between key departments.

In his words, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are like "a swan, a crayfish and a pike". Each of them has their own goals and vision of the situation, different from the others.

For example, the Bank of Russia has only two instruments that can somehow influence inflation - these are reserves and rate increases. At the same time, as Timofeev stated, the resource of the first instrument has already been exhausted, and further use of the second creates serious risks for the economy.

In turn, the government does not take steps to develop national programs, support manufacturers and other projects. As a result, with current rates, it is easier for businesses to put money in the bank than to take risks and invest it in expansion.

At the same time, according to the expert, if the Central Bank, under pressure from the government and parliament, begins to lower the rate in December, this will turn into a disaster - inflation will skyrocket, since no other measures are being taken to contain it.

Moreover, as Timofeev put it, even its indicator is calculated incorrectly today. According to him, Rosstat uses the "old" formula to calculate inflation, which does not work in the current reality. So it turns out that pensions are indexed by one figure, and food prices in stores are rising much faster.

Comments

[foxes]

Dumb, dumber and retarded.

[Silver99]

Remove the Central Bank of Russia from the control of the IMF, introduce gold backing for the ruble, remove all obstacles to the market economy in the form of numerous inspectors and predatory taxes, and you will not recognize Russia, which will revive economically.

[Sergey_O]

Your proposal is unrealistic! The previous speaker explained. I can only add to what he said that he is also a stupid and stubborn enemy. USAID wrote us the robbery taxes.

[Fangaro]

"... The Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are like the "swan, the crayfish and the pike". Each of them has their own goals and vision of the situation, different from the others."

And this dashing trio also has a coachman.

[Uncle lee]

Quote from Fangaro

And this dashing trio also has a coachman.

If horses are not changed midstream, then it is better to replace the coachman...
P.S. My opinion does not coincide with the official one.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote from Fangaro

And this dashing trio also has a coachman.

The coachman has no clue about economics, so he listens to the one who speaks louder and more beautifully, and that is Khabibulina.
What to do? Put all three of them up against the wall - the highest measure of social protection. If they cannot sit down and agree on the coordination of actions for the benefit of Russia and its people.
I would have been fired from the plant for such a result of my work. And this trinity, God forgive me, "managers" are also paid a salary that is a million more than my pension.

[Sergey_O]

You are mistaken about one thing - the salary there is seriously more than a lemon.

[Sanya Terek]

In his words, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are like "a swan, a crayfish and a pike". Each of them has its own goals and vision of the situation, different from the others... In turn, the government does not take steps to develop national programs, support manufacturers and other projects...

Do we live in a state or a gang? No one is responsible for anything, no one can make decisions.

[Vasilenko Vladimir]

Quote: Sanya Tersky

No one is responsible for anything, no one can make decisions.

that's why everyone steals

[paul3390]

In order to respond and make decisions, you first need to understand what is happening, to have at least a somewhat clear picture of the world. But this is where the biggest problems lie. Because this whole crowd is mindlessly blabbering on liberal Western manuals published for the natives.

[Old Horseradish]

In 1991, these comrades stole the money of the entire population of the Soviet Union and didn't choke. Then, for more than 30 years, they took all the most valuable things out of the country. They zeroed out the pensions of old men and women. And the main conclusion: they still can't get enough. Don't worry, it will get even more interesting...

[Sergey_O]

Colleague, you did not mention such a stable process as natural population decline, a process that has been the most stable since 1992.

[OlegEKB]

Well, that's why they are different departments, and they have different tasks and different approaches

It's exactly the same at my enterprise, the manufacturers want cool equipment, the employees want to work less, and I, as a financier, want to pay everyone less, since it's not profitable

[Sanya Terek]

It's exactly the same at my enterprise, the manufacturers want cool equipment, the employees want to work less, and I, as a financier, want to pay everyone less, since it's not profitable

Your boss - "the president of the enterprise" (there are many such "presidents" nowadays), the general director, or whoever he is, is obliged to formulate production tasks, set tasks for the production workers, employees and financiers, and then ensure that they are fulfilled. If he is not able to do this, your enterprise will go under. And God grant that your enterprise produces "product No. 2", and not something necessary for the power of the state.

[OlegEKB]

Your boss - "president of the enterprise" (there are many such "presidents" nowadays), general director, or whoever he is, is obliged to formulate production tasks

I'll tell you one thing, don't be offended, but you're a little naive
The boss, who is also the president, is not a specialist in all areas; he makes decisions based on information and reports from the same functional managers.
and there you can leave something unsaid, embellish something, or just make real mistakes

I'm telling you a real situation, when engineers and creators come up with a new thing or technology, such that uhhhh, Musk nervously smokes on the sidelines
technologists tell engineers, when you were creating, for some reason you didn't think that our production doesn't have the appropriate equipment, we need to buy awesome machines, in general, a new plant would be better
and financiers say, this is all great, but it is not clear where to get the money for this, and most importantly, in general this product is probably not in demand on the market now and show us how we will recoup all this

as a result, everyone is offended by each other and runs to complain to the director, "they say these financial earthworms are not allowing progress to develop in production"

Your enterprise will go out of business. And God grant that your enterprise produces "product #2" and not something necessary for the power of the state.

our enterprise lives (I told you just one funny moment), the defense capability of our Motherland has not suffered

[Alexander Rasmukhambetov]

The boss is put in place to see how his orders are carried out or not carried out, and if they are not carried out, and the executors remain in their positions, then such a boss must be fired.

[OlegEKB]

The boss is appointed to see that his orders are carried out.

It's good that he specifies where he gets the information from? ))
(he is not a specialist in marketing, production, accounting)

[Sergey_O]

I feel sorry for you. You've lived your life in vain. Don't thank me for the truth. Try to read more.

[OlegEKB]

Do you have the gift of judging a person's life and how much he has read from a distance?
You know, in Russia we say "don't judge others, lest you be judged"

[Peter Yakovlev]

" supervisor F-Broker's analytical directions Alexander Timofeev"...

Another know-it-all guru? Where do they get Xperds? Who is he?

[Santa Fe]

The rise in inflation is not only due to Nabiullina's "wrong" decisions

It is caused by war.

Throwing out money supply that is not backed by anything

They allocated half the budget for payments and production of weapons. Millions of people's salaries have increased tenfold. And they do not create any benefit or profit. The tank or drone they assembled burns up at the front the next day

These people themselves do not live in a tank; they want to buy housing.

everyone pretends not to notice the obvious, looking around with naive questions "who did this?" "who is to blame?" and they are looking for a miracle cure so that the war will continue for years, and inflation will be the same as before the war

[Sergey_O]

Inflation is ensured by the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. Only by it.

[Jacques sekavar]

“loans are becoming increasingly unaffordable”

For some it depends. Loans to systemically important enterprises are covered by benefits and subsidies, and therefore they don’t give a damn about interest rates.


“The regulator’s management was made a “scapegoat,” and the rise in inflation is due not only to Nabiullina’s “wrong” decisions”

Of course, the head of the main bank is not the only one to blame.
One of the reasons for inflation is the price scissors in the external and internal markets.
The other is in the imbalance between the money and commodity supply.
The main thing is to focus on price, on profit, and not on physical real indicators.


“The problem with the Russian economy is that there is no coordination between key departments”

To bring things to a common denominator, we need a State Planning Committee with the appropriate powers, as well as structural reforms in the government – ​​the main bank cannot be independent and solve state problems in isolation from government structures.


“the government is not taking steps to develop national programs, support producers and other projects”

What nonsense!
If it weren’t for the government, the economy would have collapsed long ago and the Russian Federation would have fallen apart.


“With current rates, it’s easier for businesses to put money in the bank than to take risks and invest it in expansion”

Putting money in a bank increases its capitalization, and interest on deposits does not compensate for the growth of inflation. It would be better to buy gold or real estate, it would be more reliable.


“according to the expert, if the Central Bank, under pressure from the government and parliament, starts to lower the rate in December, it will turn into a disaster – inflation will skyrocket”

On the contrary, experts expect an increase in the rate and Nabiullina did not rule it out.
Superinflation causes economic collapse and revolt of the population, which threatens the collapse of the Russian Federation and civil war. Everyone understands this and will not allow it under any circumstances.


“Rosstat’s inflation calculations”

Since the Russian Federation has a market economy integrated into the global economy, Rosstat also operates according to international standards.

[Sergey_O]

Don't you find it funny to talk about a market economy? Tell me another joke about 13%. The tax burden in Russia is 5-7 times higher than in the US and Canada. And you're talking about the market. Oh, and about capitalism and the private sector.

[was-witek]

They've produced, damn it, super economists who can't handle the economy. They all have the highest educations. It's time to fire them all. Have you ever heard from the Minister of Economic Development about some kind of program for the country's development for 3 years... The Minister of Finance counts rubles, the Minister of Economic Development counts dollars, and the Central Bank counts the dollar to ruble exchange rate, and THAT'S IT!! They can only count money, or maybe we're going in the wrong direction??? If the command of our Armed Forces treated their duties like that, then there would be nothing left of Russia...

[Sergey_O]

In the previous government there were 50% + 1 economist-sociologist.

[yuriy55]

Stop looking for a black cat in a dark room.
A quarter-century policy of concentrating eccentrics and utter incompetents in the government has led to the people beginning to understand where the grain is and where the chaff is...
* * *
Next year, electricity tariffs are planned to increase. Why is that? Given that the selling price per kW/h fluctuates between 0,6 and 1 rubles... Is it taking too little money from the population? Or have enterprises started producing competitive goods?
All paths of real development have been tested and exclude speculation and parasitism as such...
You can't take care of Moscow just because 1/10 of Russia's population lives there (by the way, why exactly?) and subsidize some territories with "gratuitous receipts" (because they can't do anything but grab a dagger)...

[Blaster]

In Tula, connecting electricity to a garage costs 7000 rubles. This is not a typo.
https://www.bloha.info/view/articles/1118668/

[yuriy55]

Quote: Blaster

In Tula, connecting electricity to a garage costs 7 rubles.

?
Cost of technological connections in Kemerovo:
https://skek.ru/upload/iblock/3c6/29y5gv5x4b2w2lc9b5nco6mkbuzd2en3/Razmer-platy-za-tekhnologicheskoe-prisoedinenie-k-elektricheskim-setyam-na-2024-god.pdf
Simply put:

In 2024, in the Kemerovo region, the price for connection to electrical networks is 6022,32₽ per 1 kW, i.e. the standard 15 kW will cost ~91 thousand rubles.

I don't even know where you get such prices from...

[Blaster]

They say that they calculated using a formula...

[Million]

Who created such a system and why doesn’t they want to change anything?

[yuriy55]

Quote: Million

Who created such a system and why doesn’t they want to change anything?

They want to change, but those who want to do so have not coordinated their efforts.
* * *
This system has been known for a long time. In Russia they cultivated it:

[Sergey_O]

I know who created it, if you ask, I will answer. I find it difficult to answer the second question.

[Andrey Andreev_2]

A huge number of officials, trying to defend their place at the trough, built the management system in such a way that none of them is responsible for anything, spreading responsibility between departments, divisions... This is where many of the problems in the management of our state come from. Regarding the current situation with the refinancing rate - it will only grow while Russians' money lies in banks at interest. It will be possible to reduce the rate after freezing deposits and interest payments on them... Otherwise, most banks will simply go bankrupt, because they will not be able to answer to people for deposits and accounts (interest).

[Sergey_O]

I will only add that the growth of the number of officials, and there are twice as many of them as in the USSR, was ensured by the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, which was written for Russia by USAID.

[Dutchman Michel]

Yes! After Chubais and Gaidar, there are still "economists" in Rus'

[storm]

It is high time to merge the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance into a single structure with direct subordination to the Prime Minister. If he is responsible for the state of the economy and finances in the country, then he should manage these structures.

[Idle_piston]

Here it seems to me that the entire state system in Russia is built not for the development and prosperity of the country, but for the provision and comfortable existence of the state itself, i.e. the class of officials.

[DO]

Handing out magic kicks to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development in order to give them the necessary vector of development is the main responsibility of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers of the government. This routine task seems quite feasible for the top government officials.
But in order to harness the Central Bank to this harness, it must also be subordinated to the government, as a ministry. As in China.