Waiting for January 20, 2025: Escalation for Peace or Shameful Defeat
High expectations
If we analyze the information posted in Russian media and in the Russian-language segment of the Internet, we get the impression that after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, everything will get better for us – we will start living in a new way.
Part of the Russian population, and what’s worse, a number of representatives of the Russian political elite, have begun to hope that after the inauguration of the US President, which is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will at most stop the war in Ukraine, and at least “ditch” Ukraine and the countries of Europe and focus on domestic American problems.
Based on this conclusion, the strategy of “we need to be patient for a little while” is built – not to respond to provocations, to try to get by “at the minimum”, not to participate in escalation on our part, to intensify military actions only on the line of combat contact (LBC) in order to capture as much territory as possible, which can then be “staken out” for ourselves, although bloody ground battles usually lead to the greatest losses for the warring parties.
If for every new step of escalation made by the enemy, we respond with another “regular” high-precision strike weapons long range, then such blows no longer make any impression on the enemy; for him, it’s just a “tickling”.
The Western masters of Ukraine are not impressed by either the exploits or the sacrifices of either Russia or Ukraine, but they clearly perceive the lack of a tough reaction to each subsequent crossing of “red lines” as our weakness.
Moreover, we do not attack the USA and European countries, and they do not care about Ukraine and its population, as long as it maintains its "functionality" for conducting military operations with Russia. On the contrary, it is good, more corpses and wounded - more organs will end up in European transplant centers, the population becomes poorer - more Ukrainian women will go to OnlyFans and prostitution.
In general, there is a feeling that the contours of the future peace agreement have already been determined by the enemy – it will be based on a ceasefire and the division of territories according to the LBS without legal recognition of this fact by the parties.
There will be no "denazification" and rights of the Russian-speaking population, the Russian language will be banned, Ukraine will be pumped full of weapons, troops will be brought in, covertly or openly. Well, joining NATO is a situational issue, at first you can promise a ten-year "moratorium", because this is very little - time will fly by quickly, and in the process it will be as it happens, if Russia weakens, then it can be "ditched" early.
Image opermap.mash.ru
In general, it is planned to create a classic Anglo-Saxon point-line of tension, where at any moment it will be possible to initiate a war again, if necessary, and the enemy will fight with a former part of its own country - this is what they did with North Korea and South Korea, China and Taiwan, India and Pakistan.
For us, this is nothing more than a shameful defeat and a postponed war, even more difficult, prolonged and bloody, but this is only if we “bend over.”
It can be assumed that the US has another “pacification” scenario, in which Ukraine will be reduced to “horns and legs” – some regions will go to Russia, some to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and the most useless “remnants” will be transformed into an independent Western Ukraine with a clown president at the helm.
This is indirectly indicated by some murky surveys conducted recently in Ukraine on the topic "Do we need Eastern Ukraine?", "Are we ready to give up pro-Russian regions for the sake of the European Union and NATO?".
But for the sake of a favorable scenario we will have to try, and for now, in order to improve their negotiating positions, the US, apparently, has decided to “rip out” Russia completely.
Unilateral escalation
Of what has already been implemented recently and can potentially be implemented in the near future, we can highlight:
- Strikes carried out by Ukraine with long-range precision weapons provided by Western countries deep into Russian territory.
The West may increase the escalation in this direction by the fact that, in addition to the previously set operational and tactical missiles (OTR) ATACMS and cruise missiles (CM) Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG, German CM Taurus will also be delivered, as well as the American CM JASSM-ER, which is especially dangerous for us, with a flight range of up to 960 kilometers.
The stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles pose a significant threat – Ukraine already has carriers for them.
In this context, we must not forget about the threat of the use of long-range precision weapons against our strategic facilities – the Crimean Bridge, nuclear power plants, and particularly important and particularly dangerous industrial enterprises.
- Ongoing coup attempt in Georgia, "democratic" riots organized by liberal separatists.
In essence, this is an attempt to create a “second front” in order to distract attention and disperse our forces; most likely, the “rocking” of Georgia will continue in the near future.
If the opposition achieves any success, it can be assumed that steps will be taken to destabilize the situation in North Ossetia and Abkhazia, especially since our relations with the latter have now cooled somewhat.
By the way, a laser beam can easily damage your eyesight, irreversibly. It's unclear what the police are waiting for, maybe when they start burning them alive? A couple of AGS-30s would easily solve the problem with the riots...
- We have just received a strong blow in Syria. from “friend” Recep Erdogan, judging by the dynamics of the development of events, we cannot exclude the risk that we will have to leave Syria, and this will lead to a weakening of all positions in the entire region.
Turkey's influence on these events is visible to the naked eye, they will become more and more brazen, so if they build a nuclear power plant, then only with the expectation that it will explode in two or three years.
- The lifting of US objections to Turkey's use of previously supplied S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM), as well as the start of negotiations on the supply of F-35A fighters.
The question is why did this happen now and what did "friend" Erdogan promise the US in return? Given past and current events, there are serious doubts that this will benefit Russia.
Another potential target for Oreshnik
- Invasion of Transnistria.
There is some calm there now, but it cannot be ruled out that as the situation on the battlefield worsens, Ukraine will again need a "victory". In this case, the invasion can be carried out by both the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the armed forces of NATO countries.
Together they will quickly break the resistance of the limited Russian peacekeeping contingent and commit genocide there, similar to what happened during the war in Yugoslavia.
In addition, Ukraine will get huge warehouses of weapons, although outdated, but, as we have already said earlier, Expired ammunition is perfectly suitable for use on kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and kamikaze unmanned boats (UBKs).
- Western countries also periodically “stir up the wave” regarding Ukraine’s entry into NATO, as well as the introduction of Western “peacekeepers” into Ukraine, that is, the “partners” in the negotiations are testing the waters for further possible steps of escalation.
If the escalation is one-sided, only on the enemy’s side, then we will get that extremely negative “pacification” scenario for us that we discussed above.
In order to reach a favorable scenario for concluding peace, we need our own “escalation for the sake of peace”, that is, by the beginning of negotiations we need to obtain...
Competitive advantages
To achieve an ideal negotiating position by January 20, 2025, Ukraine should be a smoking ruin with citizens occasionally appearing outside their homes, trying to beat a distracted dog with a stick or collect rainwater.
Okay, we are unlikely to be able to do that, even if we leave aside the trials that the population of Ukraine will have to endure - for those who do not want to fight with Russia, it is better to sit for a couple of months without electricity and water than to be caught by the TCC man-catchers and perish on the battlefield. And I don’t feel sorry for the “conscious” at all, even if they are just idiots “at the behest of their souls” - after all, in three years they could at least become a little smarter.
Escalation in the name of peace on our part may include options within the framework of the “minimum” program and the “maximum” program.
Minimum program:
- systematic attacks on electrical substations and power plants before a blackout occurs.
First of all, regarding high-voltage 750 kV substations, especially nodal substations, whose destruction will break the unified energy system of Ukraine into its components and will not allow the transfer of power from region to region.
The work must be completed
This should become one of the priorities - by the beginning of 2025, there should be practically no electricity in Ukraine, first of all, so that industrial enterprises stop working - why destroy the Yuzhmash plant if you can simply make it inoperative due to the lack of electricity?
- Systematic attacks on the cascade of transport structures on the Dnieper.
Including the dams of the Dnieper hydroelectric power station (HPP) cascade – the Ukrainian Armed Forces will blow them up anyway if we get close to them, so why delay, giving the enemy an advantage?
This will not only have a deterrent effect, but will also significantly complicate the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces between the western and eastern banks of the Dnieper.
- Destruction of Ukrainian satellites in space.
This is not only a show of force, but also a hint of what might happen to the satellites of other hostile countries.
By the way, it is also quite possible to slowly “approach” the satellites of Western countries, but not to destroy them yet, but to play with them using the combat laser complex (BLK) “Peresvet”, to launch a couple of inspector satellites into a parallel orbit.
You can start with civilian satellites, for example, the Finnish Iceye Earth remote sensing satellites – read, synthetic aperture radar reconnaissance satellites, which are working hard for Ukraine.
Stop shooting at your old satellites – it’s time to practice on real targets
- Elimination or attempted elimination of any official officials or politicians visiting Ukraine.
That is, if some Blinken or Scholz shows up in Ukraine, then a targeted hunt should be declared for him – attack government buildings, train stations, so that it is clear that we intend to destroy them. And this should not be just a show – we really need to “bleed” our real enemy when he exposes himself by coming to Ukrainian territory.
In general, the destruction of foreigners on Ukrainian territory should become one of the highest priorities – no negotiations, no exchanges, everyone who came to fight against Russia should have only one road – to the morgue.
- Elimination of opposition leaders in Georgia and their advisers and curators from Western countries.
Demonstratively, so that others would learn to do the same. The same must be done with separatists in all bordering areas.
Maximum program:
- Destruction of the underwater cables between the US and Europe, at least part of them.
Here we will have to take into account the interests of “partners”, primarily China, whose companies, apparently, own a significant part of this system.
- The destruction by the Houthis of at least one major NATO warship using modern anti-ship missiles (ASMs) “created by them.”
True, there is a problem - the most powerful fleets For some reason, the world is keeping its distance from the Houthis, if possible beyond the range of modern anti-ship missiles.
Ideal target
- Destruction or damage of British SSBNs in the Clyde naval base by unknown kamikaze submarines.
The same could be done with regard to the French SSBNs.
This is not about eliminating the nuclear potential of Great Britain or France, although this is quite possible, but about “anonymously” sending them a message about the possibility of such a thing.
- "Accidental" leak of weapons shipments to freedom fighters in the Americas.
Trump was going to build a wall there? We'll have to make it higher and stronger.
- Elimination of officials and journalists from Western countries who visited the Kursk region after the invasion of our territory by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There are not many of them, but if at least some of them are liquidated, then there will be no more people willing to wander around Russian territory.
- Elimination of the most hostile politicians from some EU countries.
The Baltic countries, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium — the military potential of these countries is extremely insignificant, but there is a lot of "stink" from them. If you shoot a couple of dozen of their politicians — especially active instigators of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, then NATO will not start a war because of them, and they themselves do not have enough strength.
- Conducting nuclear weapons tests on Novaya Zemlya.
This is just before the inauguration, a gift, so to speak, if the US behaves very badly all this time.
Conclusions
Wars are not won through concessions and compromises – when will the Russian political elites begin to understand this simple fact?
Our opponents, the Western countries, like to portray themselves as lions and eagles, but in essence they are jackals, and the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, etc., which have joined them relatively recently, are nothing more than garbage mongrels.
And the behavior patterns of jackals and garbage mongrels are approximately the same - to attack only the weak and pick up everything that their mouths can reach. But when meeting a strong opponent, the above-mentioned characters always run away with their tails between their legs.
The main reason for the rudeness of Western countries towards Russia is not the weakness of our Armed Forces or economy, but a disgusting caution, bordering on cowardice, in attempts to maintain relations with the “civilized world”.
But in reality everything is completely different, In order to peacefully coexist with Western countries, we do not need to “butter up” them, but to use force at the slightest pressure from them – no mercy or hesitation, only maximum severity, bordering on cruelty.
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