The Airbuses have landed firmly, the Superjets have not taken off. Only heads are flying so far
Apparently, in the near future we will be moving around the country exclusively by cars and buses. What is happening on Russian roads is a story for the very near future, but today we have airplanes. And not combat ones, but passenger ones. And with them everything is much sadder than with combat ones.
Soon we will have nothing to fly on. The regional transportation sector is practically dead, the fact that from Chelyabinsk to Tyumen, from Stavropol to Makhachkala, from Chita to Irkutsk we have to fly via Moscow is a given.
Here is the flight schedule from Chelyabinsk as proof.
Please note that if you remove the capitals and Sochi, the resort capital of Russia, then, in fact, Krasnoyarsk, Osh and Dushanbe are still not considered regional, but, if you believe the media, they are working hard on this in the Chelyabinsk region.
But we have a market, airlines must earn money, after all, we do not have the Soviet times of galoshes and blue chickens, when you could fly anywhere at the expense of the state, which subsidized regional flights. Today we will fly not where we need to, but where it is profitable for the airline.
However, this charm of speed may not be there either. What we warned about back in 2021 and 2022 has begun: the mass withdrawal of imported aircraft from service has begun. As of today, 34 of the 66 Airbus A320neo and A321neo aircraft have been withdrawn from service, and most likely, most of them will not return to flight.
The airline S7 suffered the most, it has grounded 31 of 39 A320/A321neo aircraft. It can be said that only S7 has flown, but this is definitely the first swallow. There will be more to come.
The main reason is the lack of spare parts and full-fledged engine maintenance, American Pratt & Whitney and French Leap. All the talk about how we will establish spare parts production and, perhaps, carry out engine overhauls in Russian realities is nothing more than populist statements. Grounded aircraft are the only source of spare parts that will allow the agony of Airbuses in Russia to be prolonged a little longer.
And Kommersant's sources generally say that even this will not save, and by 2026 there will be no Airbuses left on Russian routes at all precisely because of the lack of proper repairs by manufacturers. Repair of such complex products in Russian conditions is simply impossible. Plus the lack of necessary components, but this is already sanctions.
But we have an aviation industry... We have Rostec... Were we promised hundreds of the aforementioned Superjets, which would solve all transportation problems?
Yes, we talked about this topic. There were loud statements, there were reproaches addressed to us in the style of "You don't understand", but one thing is clear here: imported planes began to fall from the sky, but domestic ones are still nowhere to be seen.
Interestingly, Rosaviatsia has for some reason stopped publishing data on the number of airliners in use. The latest information is from March 2022, at which time Russian air carriers had 1055 aircraft on their balance sheets:
- Boeing and Airbus - 647 pieces;
- small aircraft such as Embraer and ATR – 86 units;
- Superjets - 148 pieces.
There is information that about a hundred aircraft have been decommissioned to date. 10% is not critical, but not optimistic either. A bad start is a bad start, they will continue to be decommissioned, there is absolutely no doubt about that.
So what in return? Absolutely nothing.
A study entitled "Overview of the Russian transport complex based on the results of 2023". And there were these curious lines:
“Thus, according to Rosstat, in 2023, 89 civilian helicopters and several prototypes of passenger aircraft were produced.”
Think about it: Rosstat (which, in theory, should know everything that happens in the country in figures) talks about "several" models. That is, not a single serial aircraft was produced, but there were several prototypes. For example (the author's conjecture) - two. Two is, from the point of view of arithmetic, several. One, for example, the import-substituting "Superjet" and the second, which we simply do not know about because of its complete secrecy.
And here we begin to remember what was promised. And what was promised, based on the decree of the Russian government (thanks again to the press service of Rostec, which provided us with this wonderful document), is this:
And here's what we're seeing: yes, 2023 was a warm-up. No one was really expecting those unfortunate 5 planes (2 Superjet-New and 3 Tu-214), and they never happened. But when nothing was done in 2024, it became clear that something had gone wrong.
Much becomes clear from Resolutions of the Government of the Russian Federation of January 13, 2024 No. 7-r. A lot.
The resolution is dedicated to an investment project worth 283 billion rubles and named "A comprehensive program for the expansion of aircraft production, aviation engines, instruments and units, including for the purpose of creating a system of after-sales service for civil aircraft, implemented by the State Corporation Rostec".
That is, Rostec will receive 283 billion in addition to what it has already received, but for what? And from the document it becomes clear that for the modernization of enterprises in the aviation industry, among other things.
Quote from the document:
4. Objectives of the investment project:
a) expansion of production of domestic aviation equipment to ensure the implementation of the comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation until 2030, approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 25, 2022 No. 1693-r, is achieved by 2030 with the achievement of the design capacity for the production of aircraft per year SSJ-NEW - up to 20 units, MS-21-310 - up to 72 units, Il-114-300 - up to 12 units, Tu-214 - up to 20 units
and Il-96-300 - up to 2 units during the implementation period of the investment project;
b) ensuring the transport independence of the Russian Federation is achieved by 2030 through the implementation of a comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation until 2030, approved by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation
dated June 25, 2022 No. 1693-r, regarding the delivery of SSJ-NEW aircraft - 142 units, MS-21-310 - 270 units, Il-114-300 - 70 units, Tu-214 - 115 units and Il-96-300 - 12 units;
c) the creation of an after-sales service system for SSJ-NEW, MS-21-310, Il-114-300, Tu-214 and Il-96-300 aircraft is achieved by 2030.
a) expansion of production of domestic aviation equipment to ensure the implementation of the comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation until 2030, approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 25, 2022 No. 1693-r, is achieved by 2030 with the achievement of the design capacity for the production of aircraft per year SSJ-NEW - up to 20 units, MS-21-310 - up to 72 units, Il-114-300 - up to 12 units, Tu-214 - up to 20 units
and Il-96-300 - up to 2 units during the implementation period of the investment project;
b) ensuring the transport independence of the Russian Federation is achieved by 2030 through the implementation of a comprehensive program for the development of the aviation industry of the Russian Federation until 2030, approved by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation
dated June 25, 2022 No. 1693-r, regarding the delivery of SSJ-NEW aircraft - 142 units, MS-21-310 - 270 units, Il-114-300 - 70 units, Tu-214 - 115 units and Il-96-300 - 12 units;
c) the creation of an after-sales service system for SSJ-NEW, MS-21-310, Il-114-300, Tu-214 and Il-96-300 aircraft is achieved by 2030.
And for this, as it turned out, it was necessary to greatly modernize Russian aircraft manufacturing enterprises. It turns out that they have become somewhat dilapidated during the reign of Boeings and Airbuses in the Russian skies. Out of the blue, this became clear, and after the already mentioned decree of August 22, 2023, a program for modernizing the plants was required.
This means billions of rubles in money, thousands of workers and an indefinite amount of time.
The number of events that need to be implemented within the framework of the program takes up 22 printed sheets in the Appendix to the Resolution. And if you read the Appendix (link at the end of the article), even a non-specialist will understand that things are not as rosy as some thought last year. And indeed, we did not understand how bad everything was.
But now it is even more unclear: what were those who voiced joyful plans to release aircraft as early as 2024 guided by?
Excuse me, but where are all the planes from the above appendix to the 2022 resolution?
IL-114-300
They continue to tinker with the Il-114-300 in Lukhovitsy. They are import substituting, debugging and preparing to receive a certificate. But this is a significant event, without which there is no point in starting serial production, it will be (if it will be) at the end of 2025, as follows from these documents.
Therefore, you can calmly watch the work in Lukhovitsy and not wait for the 2023 Il-24s announced for 10–114. They will not be there.
And here's another thing: the heart! I mean, the "flaming motor"! And there's also a problem with it! The TV7-11ST-01 engines for the Il-114-300 are manufactured in St. Petersburg at "UEC-Klimov".
Planned volume: six engines in 2025, six in 2026, and 24 engines annually, starting in 2027. That is, there is no point in expecting the Il-2026-114 before 300! But the plans included: 10 aircraft in 2023-34. What should we call it? However, let's not rush.
MS-21-300
This wonder-toy, announced for 2024 in the amount of 6 pieces, should be made in Irkutsk, at Irkut. The plane is being made, but somehow very leisurely: in the workshops at the same time there are nine gliders at different stages of readiness. But so that at least one will come out by the end of the year - no, this will not happen.
And if you look at the latest news for the MS-21, then in 2025 Irkut should manufacture 9 (nine) aircraft. But according to the government decree, 6 aircraft should have seen the sky in 2024, and 12 in 2025.
This is called "adjusted plans". Twice as much. Well, applause.
Tu-214
How the Tatarstan authorities conjured to attract orders and investments - really, they should be respected for their desire to load the factories. As far as I understand, they did not disdain anything, because money in the republic is good for the republic.
But alas, their efforts were in vain. The Kazan aircraft plant failed again. No, the fact that they re-mastered the production of the Tu-160 is great, but not just a bomber, as they say. Loud statements and promises to release the first three Tu-2023 for civil aviation in 214 failed miserably.
And not just with a bang, but also with shame: in their defense, the Kazan aircraft manufacturers said that the government had given them the task of assembling aircraft from domestic parts as possible. I wonder where the imported components suddenly came from in a Soviet aircraft (and the Tu-214 is a completely Soviet Tu-204, even its original name was Tu-203-200, the differences are minimal)?
In total, 92 billion rubles, and we won't see the Tu-2026 before 214. And here's the question: again, we look at the resolution and think: how many of the 2026 aircraft declared for 35 will we see? I'm willing to bet that no more than five. If we see them.
IL-96-400
This plane won't be ready anytime soon. They are trying to assemble it here at the Voronezh Aircraft Plant. They are slowly messing around, but it's definitely not worth waiting for soon: VASO is in a deep crisis.
After the complete collapse of the An-148 program and the Il-112V disaster, the plant is at a nosedive, the personnel situation is sad, so the pace at which the Il-86 was churned out in Soviet times is not and will not be there. Yes, of course, the modernization of the enterprise, announced in the decree, is a good thing, but what's the point of modernizing the workshops if there is no one in them?
Thanks to the efforts of the remaining factory workers, the first Il-1-96M took to the skies for the first time on November 400. So yes, a few more years and not only Putin will be able to fly the Il-96. But this will really not be any time soon, in the best of times the factory could produce 10-12 aircraft per year, and now God willing, 3-4 will be able to.
Sukhoi Superjet 100
Here, too, everything is not very straightforward. What was the SSJ-100 is no longer produced, the last 13 aircraft were manufactured in 2022. On this story The SSJ-100 is finished, and in theory the story of the SSJ-100NEW should have begun. In general, "Superjet New" is the best name for a Russian aircraft of completely domestic assembly.
But the story of SSJ-100NEW has not yet begun. Moreover, information has come out that the plane, before it even started flying, has already lost one letter in its name and will now be called SJ-100NEW: Sukhoi sold its share to a Dubai investment holding company and washed its hands of it.
So now it will be "Superjet-100 New". Although, they say that they decided to return "Irkut" to its historical name "Yakovlev", so maybe the name change will bring good luck.
But it would be better if the change of all names and titles brought reliability. That is, something that the SSJ-100 did not have initially.
As an example: we have heard about the SSJ-100 accident in Antalya, which miraculously ended without casualties. But on that day, 25 November, according to the TV channel "360" and the telegram channel "Aviatorschina", the SSJ-100 visited FIVE incidents.
1. SSJ-100, flying from Ufa to Krasnoyarsk, reported to dispatchers before descent about a low fluid level in the second hydraulic system and requested a stop on the runway, as well as towing to the parking lot using a tractor.
2. Flight from St. Petersburg to Moscow. Same cause for concern: hydraulic system.
3. SSJ-100 on the Sochi-Antalya flight caught fire on the runway during an unsuccessful landing.
This particular aircraft has aborted takeoffs five times since September last year due to engine malfunctions. The second-to-last emergency occurred in August this year during the Mineralnye Vody-Ivanovo flight. The Superjet made an emergency landing at Moscow's Vnukovo Airport. There were problems with the hydraulic system again.
4. Another plane, flying from Sochi to Moscow, aborted takeoff during takeoff due to a malfunction.
5. Already at night, the plane, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg, went around due to a malfunction of the landing gear system. The pilots landed the plane without incident, but on the runway they requested a tractor: a malfunction in the control system of the front landing gear wheel rotation.
And the list of emergencies involving the SSJ-100, which consists more than half of imported components, is as long as a rat's tail. It is difficult to predict what will happen when these SJ-100s start flying.
And so the situation turned out to be this: Airbuses are landing, but Superjets are not taking off, replacing them at least partially.
But heads rolled.
The general director of the Tupolev company, Konstantin Timofeev, and the managing director of the Yakovlev airline, Andrei Boginsky, were dismissed from their positions.
The reasons are not disclosed, but there is already a lot of nonsense surrounding the dismissal of the two top executives of the companies. It was especially unpleasant to read what Vladimir Popov, Honored Pilot of the Russian Federation, Major General of Aviation, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Aviapanorama magazine, said in a conversation with Abzats:
"Transferring management to the parent company level means saving manpower and resources, centralizing management. The UAC managers are right to make such a merger, modernizing and optimizing work from the point of view of saving human and financial resources."
The only thing missing was "This should have been done yesterday!" or something like that.
Vadim Badekha, Director of the United Aircraft Corporation, has been appointed to the post of General Director of PJSC Yakovlev; he will combine (!!!) positions.
Deputy General Director of UAC for Operational-Tactical Aviation Program Management Alexander Bobryshev will take over the management of PJSC Tupolev.
“The transfer of management to the level of the UAC parent company will allow all of the corporation’s resources to be concentrated on fulfilling specific tasks for the timely certification and launch of serial production of a line of domestic civil airliners,” the UAC statement says.
Decided to take control into their own hands. Well, maybe it will give some results. Combining such positions is a very, very difficult matter. However, the gentlemen managers know what they are getting into, it is not for us to judge the beginning, we will judge by the results.
It is clear that Tupolev and Yakovlev failed to cope with the tasks set. And then Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed another order to allocate 283,3 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund for the development of the Russian aviation industry. And this is not the first such allocation, it should be noted.
That is, billions are flying into the aviation industry, like into some AvtoVAZ, and the result is only “Granta”, that is, “Superjet”.
Mishustin wants to see results even more than we do. That is, planes. And these billions should, according to his plan, ensure the production of those very planes that were supposed to start flying today. But they are not there, and the deadlines are being moved and moved.
Everyone understands perfectly well that even if the sanctions “iron curtain” collapses, it will not happen anytime soon. And there will be no magic wand that will suddenly make all the thoroughly rusted Boeings and Airbuses fly again.
So, we have to make do with our own resources. While we still have them, these resources, because the situation with personnel is… However, the situation with personnel is the same everywhere. Decades of glorifying work in an air trading office have done their job, and an engineer is a great rarity today.
As someone who lives in a place where planes fly only one route and don't take passengers, I'm already used to the fact that train tickets are not so good and sometimes it's worth considering a bus as a means of transportation. But things are getting worse and worse with Russian Railways, so the prospects are not so great.
Therefore, if it is necessary for heads to fly from shoulders and seats from comfortable and expensive chairs for the sake of airplanes flying, then so be it!
Interesting materials on the topic:
Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of January 13, 2024 No. 7-r.
Aviation industry of Russia
Overview of the Russian transport complex by the end of 2023
Information