"Let's have a blast! We'll definitely have a blast, and more than once. The whole world will go to hell. But then..."
Picture from the site https://podolyaka.ru
Well, we can all be congratulated on the fact that we have now seen things that previous generations did not even dare to think about. We have seen the use of what was previously considered taboo and weapons the last day of humanity - intercontinental ballistic missile missiles.
And let the perfectionists grumble that "it's an IRBM", it's different. Place such a missile in Kamchatka, and without a magic wand it will turn into an intercontinental one with all the ensuing consequences on another continent - North America.
Now the whole world is feverishly trying to figure out what the Russians have launched there. The nonsense will be off the charts, there are already such hypotheses that it makes your hair stand on end. Therefore, we will not interfere with the professionals in their perversions, including reinterpreting the laws of physics of this Universe, but will talk about slightly different matters.
Question one: Is it really that important what flew there?
It doesn't matter at all, but there are a couple of nuances. If it was an IRBM, then we withdrew from the Treaty a year ago. That is, either our specialists created a new missile in a year on the old backlog (for example, on the RSD-10 "Pioneer", which is their SS-20 Sabre), because at the time the destruction of the INF began, there was already a metal "Pioneer-3", maximally unified with the "Topol".
In fact, it's hard to believe. We can't bring an aircraft engine up to standard in ten years, and here we have an ICBM. Or, as an option, the INF Treaty is a treaty, but the work never stopped. Then - easy.
Or the third option - they hit us with what they had. I believe in this, because in the Strategic Missile Forces we still have enough specialists of the highest category who are able to recalculate the trajectory of a missile practically "for themselves" - at ranges from 5 to 10 thousand kilometers, these 800 km from KapYar to Dnepropetrovsk - consider dropping them under your feet. You really have to be able to do this, and some parties considering this case are confident that this is exactly what happened.
Is it good or bad? It's hard to say, but Mr. Scholz (who, according to our information, has a small interest in the shares of the Rheinmetall concern) is right to squeal: if it hits the Rheinmetall plants, it will be unpleasant. It's not necessary to send such a gift to Dusseldorf, although it will be much easier to aim at Dusseldorf than at Dnepropetrovsk. You could, for example, hit the city of Unterluss, which is in Northern Saxony. And destroy the shell factory.
So, in fact, it doesn't matter at all what the Russian Strategic Missile Forces have at their disposal. Topol-M, Yars, Pioneer-4, Rubezh, Oreshnik or Podsnezhnik - what difference does it make what you call them? The main thing is that there are weapons, and now the whole world has become convinced that not only does Russia have missiles, but they are not just a scarecrow that can only be used to threaten, but a real club that can beat anyone.
And here even full-weight charges are not necessary: a steel blank accelerated to a speed of 10-11 km/h at the finish will have such a quantity of kinetic energy that when it hits an object it will explode no worse than a high-explosive warhead of a cruise missile, and even more effectively. Which is what actually happened in Dnepropetrovsk.
"Everyone was very interested in "Oreshnik" because of the interesting Soviet tradition of giving missile launchers names of plants instead of something threatening. There is even a certain humorous tone to this, although we are discussing an absolutely sad subject. In addition, the hazel is an interesting tree. According to mythology, it was used to drive out the forces of darkness. The name has a subtext," writer Sergei Lukyanenko shared with the publication Abzats.
Question two: was it really necessary for us to become first?
The championship, it must be said, is very dubious, but: what else, excuse me, could we do? ATACMS and Storm Shadow in Crimea, Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions – is that normal? Moreover, to hell with it, with the "Shadow of the Storm", but as has already been written, ATACMS cannot be launched without very powerful assistance from NATO structures. This missile cannot fly "to whomever God sends", it needs a clear program according to which it will carry out its flight mission.
And so, through another "red line" ATACMS flew to our side. The case when it is simply impossible not to respond, because this will testify to the complete weakness of Russia and, accordingly, to the fact that further on it is possible to commit complete lawlessness, not paying attention to all these "latest Chinese" warnings and words about an adequate response.
And, it should be noted that no one in the world made any predictions. After all the rather toothless statements, drawing "red lines", well, really, what can I say, these Russians, they were supposed to take all of Ukraine in a month, and they...
Now everything is quite nervous, because here you are, receiving food for thought in the form in which it arrived.
Let's look back and remember what we were talking about here on the pages of "Obozreniye" just a few days ago? The calmer part of the audience was talking about another massive missile strike on the objects of the Ukrainian energy system, those who have a poor view of the shores, as always, however, were broadcasting about a nuclear strike.
But in reality, the third option came out, in which cruise and ballistic missiles were simply a backdrop for His Majesty the ICBM. Although Ukraine was again without electricity, because while the ICBM was shocking everyone who watched its flight, cruise missiles were routinely hammering Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
And here it does not matter whether the missile that hit Yuzhmash was created quickly, or it was simply pulled out of storage and hastily painted. What is important is the result, which many saw. A spectacle that captivates with its appearance, because you understand: this is exactly how it will come, the End of all human civilization.
As the great American science fiction writer Ray Bradbury wrote in his immortal novel Fahrenheit 451, “…at that moment the War began and ended…”
Moreover, everything was done beautifully: they warned those who are partners. Like, we'll hit Ukraine there, don't get too nervous. We'll do without the "nuclear loaf". Otherwise, someone weak on nerves will press the wrong button... No, but such a situation could easily have happened! What should the Americans have thought when they watched on their radars and satellite cameras how a ballistic monster entered orbit and turned in the opposite direction from Kura, where Russian ICBMs usually fly for testing?
Sorry, you could make the white uniform brown or yellow. And there would be nothing shameful about it, because rehearsals for the Apocalypse don't happen every day.
When ours fired a salvo from underwater for the first time in the world, the world was also seriously tense. Many on the other side of the world remembered 21:9 p.m. on August 6, 1991 for a long time. But then no one was warned about anything, now it’s exactly the opposite: dear partners, don’t worry, we’ll just shoot with dummy shells, everything will be fine. And tell the Ukrainians – it would be better to walk five kilometers from Yuzhmash, or better yet, ten. To avoid it.
But Defense... The air defense can try to portray something. It is even desirable, we ourselves are interested in what will come out of this in the end.
By the way, the air defense could do absolutely nothing. More precisely, 36 nothing, based on the number of warheads in the six blocks of the MIRV missile. Not the speeds to take, much less destroy. The Patriots have nothing to do here, and THAAD, as you understand, no one will give Ukraine.
The fact that the warned Ukrainian authorities did not utter a word, not even half a word, at their “telethon” only once again testifies to the fact that there are practically no people left there.
As a result, 36 blanks, accelerated to a speed of 10-11 km/h and heated by friction with the atmosphere, plunged into the Yuzhmash workshops. The earth shook, say eyewitnesses living about a kilometer from the plant.
Question three. What next?
And then nothing for now. Then it’s up to all of Europe to think about it, because, speaking on this topic, Putin, as usual, somehow blurted everything out. There was a very complex phrase there, regarding the fact that Russia could “…to use weapons against the objects of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian objects.”
Very vague and without specifics. That is, we can, but where - Rzeszow or Dusseldorf, Unterluss or Bolton, which is in Bedfordshire (Storm Shadow is made there) - you decide for yourself in Europe.
There is little food for thought. The ruins of Yuzhmash are not quite the same, especially since the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces threw up their hands: "Well, they couldn't do it!" It is clear that a whole horde of experts of various kinds will now come galloping to Dnepropetrovsk, whose fuss will be reduced to one thing: to assess the damaging factor of the Russian missile.
Perhaps they will not have enough information. Never mind, they will give another set of coordinates for launching ATACMS on objects on Russian territory, so that we can apply it again from our side. For example, the Lviv railway junction. Where cargo from Germany and other goodies are transshipped. Although I personally prefer Rzeszow with its terminals or, at worst, the pilot training center in Romania. But it is a matter of taste, as they say. In general, there are more than enough targets, forgive me for such a pun.
I was watching very carefully what they were saying and writing on the other side, and there, having recovered from the shock, they started to spin the yarn about how it was a one-off action, that Russia had a couple of such missiles, and that you could and should sleep peacefully. And wait until the TCK comes for your soul. And Dnepr was not a strategically important city, so the air defense there was so-so...
In general, calls for calm, everything is going according to plan. But the overall impression is that Kyiv will run into another test. With a normal warhead, not blanks. But not with special ammunition either, that's clear.
Putin made it clear that we have enough missiles and we can use them if necessary. On November 22.11, such an explanation was given at a meeting in the Kremlin with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the military-industrial complex and developers of missile weapons.
The phrase that the tests would continue was especially interesting. Without specifics, whether at our special testing grounds or in Europe. With a mock-up part or a combat high-explosive warhead. It is no secret that any of our ICBMs could have a regular warhead in addition to a special warhead.
In general, it is clear and understandable that if attacks deep into Russian territory do not cease, then massive strikes on Ukrainian targets will also follow with enviable regularity.
The last question. Who needs to turn on their brains and start thinking?
It is clear that it is not Zelensky. He lives in his own interesting little world, apparently, inspired by what the not-quite-president deigns to consume.
And in general, there is nothing to think about, it's a clinic. If a person does not understand what he is doing, then who is his judge? Only the Ukrainian people, who voted for this phenomenon.
By the way, I'm not even talking about the strikes on Russian cities. I'm talking about the fact that this strange organization called the Ukrainian government did not inspire its own citizens to protect themselves from ICBMs. They knew. They were warned. But, apparently, they were waiting for it to fly somewhere inappropriate (like a school or a hospital), so that there would be many victims. So that they could scream to their heart's content about this topic and beg for more money and weapons from the West. So far they've been giving it.
You need to turn on your brains in Europe. And the arrival of the product with the working title "Oreshnik" is a wonderful occasion for this. I would say - more than wonderful, because here is the very Russian "we can do it again" in all its glory.
It can be repeated, and even should be. Perhaps in the same non-combat configuration. According to the enterprises that produce Tanks, guns, shells, missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, especially cruise missiles.
The situation itself is strange: all of Europe provides weapons, but why is only Ukraine paying for them? No, gentlemen, the concept of "justice" requires that the burden of war be borne by all those participating in it.
Yes, by the way, Russia is often reproached for the fact that Kalashnikov assault rifles kill many people all over the world. But if, say, you take a terrorist who sprayed booths with an AK on the territory of that very dance festival that started it all in Gaza, then it is very difficult to trace the path of his assault rifle. It could have traveled half the world and taken part in several conflicts.
Cruise missile – excuse me, but it’s a bit more complicated. It’s a precision weapon that can’t be bought on the world’s “black market” for just a handful of dollars. It’s not an AK after all.
And there is absolutely no need to hire detectives to trace the path of, say, Storm Shadow from British arsenals to launchers in Ukraine. Everything is clear and understandable there. Therefore, an arrival to where these missiles are manufactured would be, to put it mildly, logical.
Although it is necessary to strike at the decision-making centers. What is the fault of the British, German, French workers who produce weapons? Yes, they are ordinary workers, and, most likely, patriots of their country, working for its good and in the name of security.
But those who made decisions such as supplying weapons to Ukraine, they should think about it.
Although, of course, the whole of Europe will have to be beaten to death, starting with our former Warsaw Pact allies. We remember how all these Bulgarias, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic rushed, losing their slippers, to supply Kyiv with Soviet equipment and ammunition, in the hope that the good "older European brothers" would supply them with new European weapons.
There are more than enough targets. But those who must pay must pay. Here are the F-16s, which are doing something in the Ukrainian sky: who should be hit, the Lockheed Martin factories in the US, where these planes were manufactured, or the residences of certain individuals in Denmark, who kindly handed over the decommissioned planes to Ukraine?
In theory, after yet another thousandth warning, patience may snap. And it will fly not over Ukrainian land, which we will then have to restore (you understand, THAT part, which...) tearing up the budget, but to where anti-Russian decisions are made.
Of course, it is savagery. Especially from the point of view of those who will get it. It is barbarity. Especially from the point of view of those who shamelessly steal Russian money, arrest state assets, and so on. But we live in a world where savagery and barbarity take place and sit in expensive suits in Brussels, The Hague, London, and other interesting places.
It's time for Europe to start thinking. Yes, the Bundeswehr is already preparing for war, the French semblance of an army too. They were shown a war they could end up in. One ICBM is nothing compared to hundreds and thousands of cruise and hypersonic missiles, which will quickly throw such a civilized and ennobled (at first glance) Europe back to the era of barbarism. Fortunately, the Europeans have already brought in barbarians in abundance.
We must start thinking. In the shade of the poplar and hazel, while this shade does not yet block out the sun. Yes, it is not very nice to declare that we can "...the whole world into dust", but such are the times we live in. And as is well known, Extremis malis extrema remedia, desperate times require desperate measures. So said the man who saved Rome from Hannibal, Quintus Fabius Maximus, who understood both war and politics.
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