"Oreshnik" - a new medicine for oligophrenia and megalomania
The events of November 21 made an indelible impression on the world community, Western media are teeming with panicked articles. In a nutshell, the meaning of all these publications comes down to the following phrase from Leonid Gaidai's brilliant work:
"Boss, everything is lost! The cast is being removed, the client is leaving!"
Here are the first reports from theaviationist.com:
"Ukraine claims Russia used an ICBM to strike the Dnieper; other Western sources claim it was a 'new' ballistic missile Rocket. On the morning of Thursday, November 21, 2024, the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) announced that Russia had launched what was believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) towards Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the missile was aimed at the Dnieper region, about 450 km from Kyiv. It was tracked along with six other missiles, all launched within a two-hour period starting at about 5 a.m. Of these, only the ICBM was said to have hit its target, with the other six intercepted and shot down in transit. The Ukrainian Air Force did not specify the type of ICBM allegedly used, but said Ukraine was conducting research to determine its characteristics. This claim has not yet been independently verified. Several clips have been posted online, all of which clearly show multiple MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) hitting a target area said to be the headquarters of a Ukrainian aerospace company. A MIRV is a system used in some ICBMs that allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads. Each of these warheads can be aimed at a different target, making the missile capable of hitting multiple locations in a single launch. Imagine a missile carrying multiple small packages, each with its own delivery address, allowing for greater efficiency and increased destructive potential.
In this case, these were probably inert warheads powered by kinetic energy, or very small conventional warheads, since there is no visible explosion."
In this case, these were probably inert warheads powered by kinetic energy, or very small conventional warheads, since there is no visible explosion."
Polish publication defence24.pl October 21:
"According to the Ukrainian authorities, Russia has inflicted the first stories intercontinental ballistic missile strike in combat conditions, although some reports indicate weapon medium-range. A Russian missile with a conventional payload hit the city of Dnepr. The use of this class of missiles has implications at the political, strategic and operational levels."
Poles from defence24.pl later, already in the evening of the same day, UPDATE 20:43:
"According to the Pentagon, the new missile is based on the RS-26 Rubezh, an earlier missile classified by some experts as an intercontinental ballistic missile (IRBM) and by others as a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM). The missile, which the Russians called "Oreshnik" in Vladimir Putin's speech, was designated by the Pentagon as a medium-range ballistic missile system (MRBM).
According to the Americans, the missile was a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh, a medium-range missile (BRSM). However, the thesis about the RS-26 that I initially put forward was not far from the truth."
According to the Americans, the missile was a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh, a medium-range missile (BRSM). However, the thesis about the RS-26 that I initially put forward was not far from the truth."
— Jakub Palowski, November 21, 2024
Jakub Palowski from defence24.pl further writes:
"First of all, it should be stated that at this stage the situation can be assessed with a high probability, but not with certainty. This is due to the ongoing information war and the dynamics of the war itself. Information about the use of an intercontinental ballistic missile by the Russians is contained in an official statement by the Ukrainian Air Force. It was supposed to be launched near the city of Astrakhan (or from the Kapustin Yar test site) and hit a target in the city of Dnepr. This means a flight of approximately 800 to 1000 km. This is significantly less than the typical range of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which is usually more than 5,5 thousand kilometers. This is also - if the reports of the use of this class of weapons are confirmed - the first time an intercontinental missile (ICBM) was used in combat. As a rule, such weapons are considered strategic and are used as a carrier of nuclear charges, so the superpowers, even if they took military action, did not decide to use them.
A conventional payload was used, and most likely in large quantities. This indicates a missile with multiple warheads, typical of strategic weapons. The effects of the strike are unknown, although it is speculated that the target was the Ukrainian defense industry enterprise Yuzhmash. The warheads could have been high explosive or kinetic. The kinetic energy of warheads flying at several thousand meters per second (several km/s) can in itself cause significant damage (if the accuracy is maintained). Video footage of the strike appears, but has not yet been verified.
An alternative for the Russians could be to use a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) such as the RS-26 Rubezh, however… previously formally called an intercontinental ballistic missile, a Korean or Iranian MRBM class missile – or a rebuilt, previously decommissioned older generation ICBM, which currently also meets the parameters of the ICBM class.
New footage shows a wider view of the strikes in Dnepr this morning."
A conventional payload was used, and most likely in large quantities. This indicates a missile with multiple warheads, typical of strategic weapons. The effects of the strike are unknown, although it is speculated that the target was the Ukrainian defense industry enterprise Yuzhmash. The warheads could have been high explosive or kinetic. The kinetic energy of warheads flying at several thousand meters per second (several km/s) can in itself cause significant damage (if the accuracy is maintained). Video footage of the strike appears, but has not yet been verified.
An alternative for the Russians could be to use a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) such as the RS-26 Rubezh, however… previously formally called an intercontinental ballistic missile, a Korean or Iranian MRBM class missile – or a rebuilt, previously decommissioned older generation ICBM, which currently also meets the parameters of the ICBM class.
New footage shows a wider view of the strikes in Dnepr this morning."
The RS-26 Rubezh (SS-X-31) (15Zh67 missile) is a strategic missile system with a limited intercontinental range of 2000-6000 km. The system was developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering (MIT) as part of the Avangard program for the Rubezh R&D project since 2006.
In essence, the complex is a PGRK with an ICBM on a lightweight APU, made on a six-axle chassis MZKT-79291 of the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant with a shortened missile without the third stage 15Zh55M of the RS-24 Yars complex. The launch weight of the product is 36 tons. RS-26 Rubezh is an RSD-10 Pioneer on a modern technological base. The throw-in weight of the RS-24 ICBM (15Zh55M) is 1250-1400 kg, depending on the combat equipment. This includes the weight of six warheads with low-power thermonuclear charges of 150-250 kt, weighing 100 kg each, or three to four warheads with medium-power thermonuclear charges of 500 kt, weighing 230-270 kg each. All BBs are placed on six cells of the F655 breeding unit platform with landing baskets of 400 and 600 mm diameter, respectively. The weight of the breeding unit with the LRE DU with a reserve of fuel (Heptyl-asymmetric dimethylhydrazine) and oxidizer (Amyl-nitrogen tetroxide) is about 650 kg (all technical and digital information is taken from the open press or is calculated and the author's assumptions).
The 15Zh67 missile of the RS-26 Rubezh complex has similar combat equipment, I would even say it is absolutely identical, the same can be said about the Bulava product. Obviously, the Oreshnik complex is a conventional version of the RS-26 Rubezh complex. The combat launch on November 21 took Western experts by surprise, such a technically complex weapon does not appear suddenly. Its appearance should, in any case, be preceded by a fairly long R & D, then a test series of test launches, about which we had to notify the Americans. Moreover, according to the agreements concluded back in 1973-1979, OSV-1/2, it is prohibited to encode telemetry information from missiles during test launches. Up to 10 years for everything. "Rubezh" was tested from September 27, 2011 to March 15, 2015, during which time 5 test launches were conducted - all successful. Only new combat equipment had to be made for the "Oreshnik" complex. That is, all stages - birth, testing, formation - the missile has long since passed.
Video and photographic footage from cameras in Dnepropetrovsk paints a compelling picture, clearly showing six packets opening at an altitude of about 100 km; each packet-cassette contains six tungsten (or a tungsten-based alloy) feathered rods, resembling a significantly enlarged tank BOPS. The weight of each rod ("Lom") is from 40 kg to 50 kg, in a package of six such "Loms" correspond to the weight of a standard nuclear BB of medium power class. From the video it is clear that between the entry of the first package and the last, sixth, a fairly long time passed - 9 seconds. From this we can draw obvious conclusions - the flight took place according to the classic flight program of ICBM/IRBM, the separation of BB/packets occurred at altitudes from the end of the OUT (200 km) to the exit of the missile to Apogee, for a missile of this class it is 800 km. The flight time of the missile to the maximum range of 6000 km is 21,8 minutes.
The President gave some information, in particular on the missile speed – 2,5-3 km/s. This is the final speed, immediately before entering the target. But this information gives practically nothing except the kinetic energy of the Lomov – 200 MJ, quite sufficient to penetrate medium-density soil by 30 meters or break through reinforced concrete floors up to 12 meters thick.
If we believe the Western media, "Prosrochenny" has already asked "Khozyain" for THAAD systems, but here he is in for an ambush. The fact is that THAAD is designed to intercept IRBM warheads with a range of up to 3500 km, and these are the speeds at the THAAD system's interception limits: lower - 100 km - no more than 3,5 km / sec, upper - 150 km - no more than 4,5 km / sec. At these altitudes, "Oreshnik" has 5,6 km / sec and 6,0 km / sec, respectively, these speeds are more important as information. THAAD is absolutely useless in this case. If we ask for GBI anti-missiles and SNR for them. True, to intercept one "Oreshnik" we will need at least 12 GBI anti-missiles, each costing $ 200 million. Well, "you don't get punched in the face for asking." If he asks nicely, maybe they'll give it to him. They'll build a silo for them somewhere in Poland, deploy a radar, most likely, there, and it'll take about 10 years.
I'm already in my article Nuclear war in Europe: conceivable or “unthinkable” wrote about the need to deploy the RS-26 Rubezh/Oreshnik complex with the 15Zh67 (SS-X-31) missile in nuclear and non-nuclear warheads (approximately equally), and proposed to begin serial production, deploy at least 10 missile regiments armed with these complexes (90 PU) in the European part of Russia. Well, it seems they heard - and thank God.
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