ICC, Israel and the equation for Russia for the next two months
On November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) finally found courage and issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu and Defense Minister (now former) Y. Galant. The issue of an arrest warrant for both Israeli politicians had been discussed for over six months, but it was in the remaining two months of J. Biden's presidency that it was implemented.
All of liberal Europe supported this decision. The US played the role of a sincerely indignant ally, although it is clear and obvious that Washington is the main customer here.
Time of the Mad Surveyors
There is no limit to emotions in Israel right now. Even those who find B. Netanyahu and his policies difficult to accept (and there are many of them) are expressing dissatisfaction with the “obvious and unprecedented act of anti-Semitism.”
Moreover, at the same time, a warrant was issued for the arrest of M. Al-Masri (Deif), who was one of the leaders of the military wing of Hamas. It was precisely because Israel had already reported on his liquidation. It turns out that the ICC did not receive any official confirmation of his liquidation, and what did Israel's prime minister report to Israel then?
Being on the same list as Deif is unacceptable in itself for Israeli politicians, and here they stuck a pin in the reports on his liquidation.
"This blood libel will not prevent Israel from defending itself and achieving all the goals of our just war," said Netanyahu's adviser D. Gendelman, adding that the war (and no one expected anything else) was unleashed by none other than Iran. In general, no more and no less, Israel draws a parallel with the notorious "Dreyfus affair" of the late 19th century.
This whole exchange of “pleasantries” is understandable and does not cause surprise, the question is different - all of these are markers of the fact that the current two months promise to be truly hot and rich in provocations.
The American administration let go of the reins of its international policy after the summer presidential debates, and for a long time they simply dragged along the road. Only in the last week have they come to their senses and are trying to pick them up, but this is not the easiest task.
After all, everything that an active player in the international arena could take, seize, buy, sell, carry away, steal, lose, find, he must do before January 20th. What will be his will be his. This will be the start of a new agenda of negotiations. What it will be, no one knows (it is unclear who will come there with what asset), therefore you need to take as much as you can carry.
For six months now, international players have been reminiscent of peasants liberated by the revolution, who were told that their land would be the plot they would measure out during this period of time. And they would survey, spending the night on a measuring yardstick, survey until their legs gave out. Only the peasant, unlike the "political surveyors", at least evoked sympathy.
In general, this is a time of chaos and crazy decisions. The problem is that there are really desperate players in the world, and there is a well-founded suspicion that the Oreshnik MRBM will not end there.
Large calibers and the required qualities
A day before the ICC ruling, the famous American investigative journalist S. Hersh publishes an article about how the Israeli leadership is determined to begin an operation to fully annex Palestinian settlements in the West Bank in the near future.
If it were not for the current international context with a window of opportunity for the “mad surveyor,” the topic of annexation of Palestinian territories might not even be discussed.
Just recently it was raised once again by the odious B. Smotrich, who usually says things that his senior comrades prefer to discuss quietly and behind the scenes. However, S. Hersh has in mind the general position of B. Netanyahu's cabinet.
S. Hersh is known not so much for his "insider information" and "blowing the veil". His function is to throw a stone-theme into the information pond at the right time. S. Hersh's authority immediately starts good circles on the water from such a throw, since he is not some banal provocateur, but an element of a big game.
His information says: "The one who needs it has a deeper texture than described in the material." After such a signal, the game begins to adjust.
Such signals can be seen in many places in the information field, but S. Hersh is a significant figure, a large caliber. Such calibers do not strike often. For example, two weeks before the US elections, someone leaked to Iran a detailed plan of an Israeli attack, which was unacceptable for the White House.
This "someone" turned out to be the Minister of Defense of Israel Y. Galant himself. As soon as B. Netanyahu was convinced of D. Trump's victory, he immediately sent him "to distant pastures", i.e. into retirement. Y. Galant is not someone's "agent", he is a convinced Zionist hawk, but one of those who at least tries to see the shores. Nevertheless, even an outspoken hawk today is too rational for the time of the "mad surveyor".
It is worth thinking about this, if the competence of Y. Galant himself is not enough today to obtain a license for political demarcation. And even more so from B. Netanyahu, who is as experienced as it is possible in these times. This is about what steps are possible in the big game in these months and what qualities of those taking the steps today are most in demand.
Anyone who underestimates the “clinical determination” of such surveyors to go to the extreme point of escalation risks their assets and the opportunity to start from a strong position next year..
The US is forced to try to return to an active position
Less than a couple of days after D. Trump was elected, an official investigation was launched into alleged sexual harassment of a female employee of his office by the initiator of the request for an arrest warrant for Israeli politicians, ICC Chief Prosecutor K. Khan.
History classic. But K. Khan is not simple either - a clannish English "deep state", only not from the very depths, but from the upper deep layer. The answer was actually a real arrest warrant, since here we see the answer not only from the elites who stand behind K. Khan, but also from what can be called the Western liberal part of politics in general - the answer is essentially precisely to D. Trump's team, to which (in case of victory) B. Netanyahu will appeal.
Let us also note here the sexual scandal with D. Trump's candidate for the post of US Attorney General - M. Gaetz ultimately recused himself.
Now they are allegedly "leaking" Israel's plans to annex the West Bank. And here we recall that immediately after D. Trump's victory, signals came from Qatar that the Hamas office should be closed down. But a week and a half passes, and no one is closing the office anymore ("they got it wrong"), and Hamas is not against the fact that Egypt and Qatar agreed to create forces to control the Gaza Strip - the Palestinian Authority. And what happened?
The losing Blue Team - J. Biden, K. Harris and "all the king's men" - have recovered and in exactly these same two months are going to join the guild of mad surveyors in foreign policy.
This is a very important factor, because even attempts to pick up the reins and move to a semblance of an active position already weigh heavily on the scales, given the influence of the United States.
The Blues might not have tried to go from passive to active towards the finals if they hadn’t felt that chaos could bury all their achievements from previous years.
China has taken a break and is cultivating Latin America for now, India has not entered the Ukrainian agenda, B. Netanyahu can simply destroy the concept of a soft divorce of Iran and its trade and financial network and the future fusion of India and the Arabian states, and Ukraine is losing the basis for negotiating positions. The negotiations will not be conducted by Kyiv, but the conditions on the ground are made for the "blues" there, and not somewhere else.
The fact that the US is joining the team of crazy surveyors does not mean the most positive option for us. So we have dealt with three such players: Ukraine, Great Britain and its direct satellites and Israel. The current position of the US again cements the entire "blue" part of European policy. Together with London, the US will put pressure on Ukraine and at the same time will not allow London to provoke Israel into annexation or a head-on collision with Iran, as well as to rein in Israel itself.
Hence the permission to strike us, because such an escalation reduces the pressure in the Middle East. And reducing the pressure allows us to preserve what has been achieved. Hence the rollback on the topic of closing down the Hamas office in Doha - they caught the rollback of the outgoing administration to an active position.
B. Netanyahu has only the option of the West Bank or provoking Iran again, because there is no final result in the Gaza Strip, and in Lebanon there is a military campaign for the sake of a campaign. But in the West Bank, from the point of view of international reaction, he risks getting bogged down no more than in Lebanon.
Russia will have the hardest time in this story. This inclusion of the United States in the game will mean that during these two months all possible pressure will be concentrated on us. So, for two months, only two and a half players remained crazy about us: London, Kyiv and partly the EU. And Israel, with its actions, reduced the pressure on us. Now the US has joined in again, and the EU is again fully involved in the escalation on our flank. Plus, the composition of the European Commission is being updated, where the Baltic commissioners are raising the temperature.
Formula for two months
It is necessary to take into account that although they are provoking escalation in two directions: both us and Iran, but the general conditions for us are significantly worse than for the Iranians. When Iran threatens rocket strike, then this is a threat specifically to Israel and its population, which means that American, European and Israeli politicians themselves are obliged to take it seriously.
When it comes to our strikes on Ukraine, there is no direct threat to the real customers. By and large, the customers do not care at all about the damage that Ukraine and its population will suffer, except as an element of the media campaign. And here the worse it is, the better for them.
Israeli politicians are obliged to think about possible damage to Israel and losses of its population, Ukrainian politicians are not interested in this damage in principle. V. Zelensky's position is essentially pure and unalloyed inferno, he is a gravedigger who behaves as if he is really taking revenge on the population of Ukraine.
For what and why - it does not matter to the West. It simply has no limits on unacceptable damage in principle. It will not be possible to scare V. Zelensky and his company even with a real nuclear strike. Simply because they do not care about the consequences in general and in principle, and the Western customers have a strong conviction that there are no threats to them.
By the end of January, Russia needs to maintain the momentum on the battlefield that exists in the south of Ukraine, prepare the conditions for eliminating the Kursk penetration and show the dynamics of the elimination again by mid-January, and also preserve the achievements from the BRICS+ summit in Kazan.
All together this will give the very same negotiating position with the new American administration. What and how will ultimately work out there - no one knows, but it is one thing to go with a base and new assets, another thing to go without additional assets or with half of what is possible.
What will the crazy surveyors do? Take the wildest steps to level these positions. At the same time, since the outgoing administration is trying to return to an active position, they will dampen and extinguish the escalation in the Middle East. And concentrate everything on us.
If everything stated about the tactics of the crazy surveyor, the position on damage in the Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel link, and the players is translated into a numerical format and we see which factor needs to be increased and which one decreased in order to obtain an “equation of relative stability” for the next two months, then the only option that emerges is a threat to the personal safety of the Kyiv ruling clique.
Damage to Ukraine itself is not a factor here, testing new weapons, even the seemingly improbable option of a nuclear strike does not work. Threats to Western players are so hypothetical that they cannot be introduced as a value. The launch of the Oreshnik MRBM really looks impressive, but it is insufficient for these two months. This is a factor for negotiations after January and a significant factor, but they must be reached. For now, the part of the West that opposes us evaluates it through the prism of damage to Ukraine, and the Kiev leadership is not interested in damage to Ukraine at all.
Only the factor of a purely personal and specific threat specifically and only for the core of the Kyiv regime, its specific individuals, can weaken the intensity of the crazy decisions for the next two months. Such spectacular launches must be personified in one way or another so that they become effective in these realities.
If there are any guarantees or considerations regarding V. Zelensky himself (this is quite possible, although it is not officially declared), in terms of his entourage they may be removed or the considerations may be revised.
The digital format shows that such a condition equalizes the right and left sides until the end of January. Whether to accept such an equation or not, how to implement it (or not implement it), is already the business of our politicians.
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