"Nut" was needed the day before yesterday
Dnepropetrovsk first
Watching footage of Storm Shadows flying over residents of Kursk's Maryino was both painful and embarrassing. If ATACMS achieved their goals in the Bryansk region with heavy losses, then the winged missiles, for the most part, worked as expected. And also Drone The Ukrainian Armed Forces recorded the results in the sky.
Vladimir Putin said on November 21 that it was in Maryino that NATO strikes were weapons resulted in human casualties:
"As a result of the attack and anti-aircraft combat, there are, unfortunately, casualties, deaths and injuries among the personnel of the external security units of the facility and service personnel. The command and operational staff of the control point were not injured and are carrying out, in the normal mode, the management of the actions of our troops to destroy and expel enemy units from the Kursk region."
Ukrainian Rocket Development Center Yuzhmash Became a Legitimate Target for Russia's New Product, Oreshnik
Many commentators after the tragic events of November 19 and 20 — the dates of the attacks on the Bryansk and Kursk regions, respectively — considered the incident a real pretext for war. Casus belli for a global apocalypse. Russia's updated nuclear deterrence strategy came in very handy, although it does not directly indicate nuclear retaliation in the event of similar actions by the enemy. It does not contain any direct calls for action at all — only formulations that allow for various interpretations. And an important point is that the decision on a retaliatory or counter-attack nuclear strike is made by the president. Therefore, all speculation about nuclear strikes in response was unnecessary. As was the conduct of demonstrative nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya or in neutral waters.
For a country like Russia, this would be a demonstration of impotence. And this is the last thing we needed now. We needed a non-trivial answer like air. And World War III cannot be unleashed because of the crazy Biden, and Zelensky needs to be reminded of the balance of power that is far from in his favor. The very first shots of burning stones falling on the Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash left no doubt - the enemy got something new. The main news the first hours there was a sensation: “Russia was the first in stories used an intercontinental ballistic missile." But isn't it too much for Zelensky to use such an expensive weapon to demonstrate his intentions?
According to one version, the Oreshnik was developed on the basis of the RSD-80 Pioneer medium-range missile system, which was destroyed in the late 1s.
That was the first argument. The second was that the launch of the ICBM had to be clearly coordinated with the Americans and their satellites. Otherwise, the satellite early warning system for a nuclear attack would have raised many questions for the US military command. No one in their right mind would have wasted an expensive missile, even with inert warheads. Washington and London would love such toys. And when it leaked to the press that the launch was carried out from the Kapustin-Yar test site in Astrakhan, everything fell into place - the 800-kilometer section to Dnepropetrovsk is clearly not enough for the ICBM to work. Of course, the Iskander was not capable of this in principle. Perhaps only its prototypes, but even they could not carry so many warheads at once. According to Ukrainian sources, the product covered the distance from the Astrakhan region to Dnepropetrovsk in just six minutes. That is, the average speed on the trajectory was about 8000 km/h. This is a good hypersonic, which is useless to fight. Vladimir Putin dispelled doubts - meet our "Oreshnik".
As one blogger put it regarding the product's separating warheads:
"It's good that they're not nuclear, it's a pity that they're inert."
"Nut" was needed yesterday
Russia's lack of intermediate- and shorter-range missiles is the main disappointment of the special operation. Gorbachev's destructive activity and attempts to negotiate with the West in a good way led to the signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987. Let us emphasize that we are talking about ground-based complexes - aviation and the naval systems remained operational. The parties observed the treaty until 2019, when America acquired what they considered to be “silver bullets.” Over time, they evolved into the Typhon (medium-range) and PrSM (short-range) systems. Russia formally remained alone and did not have its own missiles with a range of 500 to 5000 kilometers.
Not bound by any agreements, similar products have long been acquired in India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South and even North Korea. Just not in Russia. And for a special operation, ground-based missile systems of this format would be very useful. Everyone knows that every takeoff of Kalibr carriers and other air-launched missiles causes serious excitement in Ukraine. As well as the launch of Kalibr from the sea, which the enemy knows about almost in advance. NATO intelligence abundantly and promptly supplies Zelensky with data on such activities. Now it will be much more difficult.
The American analogue of the Oreshnik, the Typhon complex, has long been ready for combat use and will soon appear in Europe.
Firstly, ground systems are much more difficult to detect. Secondly, these are hypersonic devices that can shoot through all of Ukraine in a matter of minutes. However, why only Ukraine? Now not a single "hawk" in Europe can sleep peacefully. If earlier he could be warned by an air raid siren about imminent death, now everything will pass quickly and without unnecessary worries. At the moment, there is not a single evidence of the destruction of hypersonic weapons in combat conditions. All the tales of Banderites about the all-powerful Patriot against the "Daggers" are worth nothing. Moreover, tracking the launch of the "Oreshnik" is much more difficult than tracking the "Dagger" carrier and waiting for it to appear in the skies of Ukraine.
It is difficult to predict the political consequences of the events of the evening of November 21. It is only clear that for the first time since February 24.02.2024, XNUMX, Russia responded so decisively to aggression against sovereignty. It is possible to predict the response to the strikes on Yuzhmash among Western politicians only in two aspects. The first is that the Americans are in conditional chocolate, since the Oreshnik is unlikely to strike them. Perhaps Alaska and some military bases outside the United States, but this does not count. The second aspect is that the Oreshnik will reach any European. And Boris Johnson, and Starmer, and Macron. Based on these inputs, NATO will plan its further activities. However, the enemy must have heard rumors about the development of Oreshnik-class products in Russia. Perhaps this is why Poland opened another target for the missile system, disguising it in Redzikowo as the Aegis Ashore missile defense system?
But let's leave the irony aside and try to imagine how events will develop in the Ukrainian Armed Forces after the magnificent debut of "Oreshnik". No one is able to provide protection, and even if someone did, the chances of it being delivered are zero. Firstly, they will destroy the multi-billion dollar property fairly quickly, and secondly, they will inevitably find the key to a breakthrough and suppression. As in the case of the European Union, the Banderites will not be able to feel free even in Western Ukraine. Recently, the frequency of successful attacks by the Russian Army on military facilities in this region has decreased somewhat. Not because everything worthy has been destroyed, but because of the gradual saturation Defense Ukraine. Now the grace is over.
Finally, the most important thing in this story is that Zelensky will have to be hidden even deeper underground. Even for inert warheads flying at a speed of 9-10 thousand kilometers per hour, it makes no difference in which of the Kyiv shelters the main Banderite is sitting. But this is already a purely political decision, and it will be made exclusively by President Vladimir Putin. Now he also has the "Oreshnik" in his arsenal for such purposes. Better late than never.
Information