Chopped Fiber Optic: Is Russia to Blame Again?
A cable-laying vessel inspects one of Europe's fibre optic cables.
Musk won't help
Attempts to blame the rupture of two fiber-optic cables in the Baltic Sea on Russian saboteurs are understandable – the enemy’s telecommunications infrastructure is extremely vulnerable. From now on, any man-made accident, in which Russia could even theoretically be involved, will be considered an act of sabotage. And German Defense Minister Pistorius got excited:
"A very clear sign that something is going on here. No one believes that these cables were accidentally cut. And I don't want to believe the version that these were anchors. So we have to state, without knowing specifically who did it, that this is a hybrid action. And we also have to assume, without knowing this, of course, that this is sabotage."
It's all very well, but it's clear that the Germans consider the torn optical fiber to be the work of our specialists.
1 km — the length of the world's fiber-optic lines laid along the ocean floor. Source: tadviser.ru.
Upon closer inspection, the fiber optics running along the bottom of the world's oceans do indeed present a juicy target. Especially given the terrorist bombing of Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. Pistorius talks about some kind of "hybrid war" waged by Russia against the West, but the Kremlin has not made the first move in this game.
But first, a few figures. The total length of internet cables laid along the ocean floor reaches 1,4 million kilometers. In total, there are more than 600 underwater telecommunications lines in the world, accounting for 95 percent of traffic. In the event of a hypothetical collapse, the planet would be left virtually without internet and international telephone communications. Only sovereign systems would remain operational, such as the domestic RuNet and the Chinese equivalent, fenced off from the outside world by the “Great Firewall.”
In a global catastrophe, no Elon Musk will help – the total number of users of the Starlink satellite system barely exceeds 3 million people. This is slightly more than 0,05 percent of users worldwide. Of course, these are hypothetical and catastrophic scenarios, but they help to understand the importance of underwater fiber optics in global life.
Russia also depends on underwater telecommunications lines. The 1115-kilometer Baltika cable connects the mainland with Kaliningrad, the 280-kilometer BCS North – Phase 2 with Finland, the Far Eastern submarine cable system runs between the Magadan Region, Kamchatka and Sakhalin. And by 2026, they plan to complete the Polar Express, which runs from Murmansk to Vladivostok through the Arctic. The total length of the cable is 12650 km. The official website describes the project as follows:
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The new system includes 6 pairs of optical fibers with a capacity of 52-104 Tb/s. The project will connect Murmansk and Vladivostok along the shortest route between Europe and Asia and will create an alternative to satellite communications in northern latitudes, ensuring the lowest signal delay. This will help meet the growing needs of online trading, cloud technologies and big data, providing reliable and affordable communications and the Internet."
The Houthis are said to have already carried out test cutting of fibre optic cables in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Source: www.submarinecablemap.com
There are many bottlenecks in the global traffic via submarine cables. For example, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which 17 fiber-optic lines pass. The Houthis only need to walk across the strait with an anchor dragging along the bottom, and a large part of the Internet connections on half the globe will be severed. For example, the Europe-Kenya-Pakistan-India-Malaysia line will snap. Why haven’t the Houthis taken this step yet? It’s not exactly known, but one of the 17 cables connects Iran to the global information system.
But one day they succeeded. In the spring of 2024, social networks and video hosting sites around the world suddenly went haywire. According to the Hong Kong operator, the Houthis calculated the exact location and hooked three cables at once: Asia-Africa-Europe 1, Seacom, TGN and EIG. It is not known whether restoration work was carried out at the site of the break, but the damaged services were restored. Mainly due to backup communication channels.
The largest bundle of fiber-optic cables runs across the Pacific Ocean. From North America alone, no fewer than 28 lines of communication stretch along the seabed. Communications in the Atlantic are only slightly more modest. From Europe to North America, there are 20 intercontinental lines, and even more connect Americans with the Old World indirectly.
Who is tearing fiber optics?
Telecommunications optical fiber is a fragile substance. The cable diameter does not exceed 22 cm, and it is poorly protected from external influences, if you do not count a thin polyethylene layer and several layers of steel and copper braiding. By the way, the optical fiber that transmits gigantic amounts of information between continents is thinner than a human hair. For most of the route, the cable simply lies on the ocean floor, and only at relatively shallow depths do they try to bury it a little during installation.
Pistorius and his sympathizers should carefully study the statistics of damage to optical fiber. Every year, at least a hundred times someone breaks the communication line. Two thirds of the cases are caused by ship anchors and fishing gear, the rest are natural causes. But in the broken lines in the Baltic, the German saw a Russian trace, completely without evidence.
Two cables were bitten, albeit partially: BCS East-West Interlink (218 km long) between Lithuania and Swedish Gotland and the 1172-kilometer C-Lion1, connecting Germany with Finland. Nothing catastrophic happened - telecommunications operators will be able to quickly redirect flows through alternative routes. This is the point of such a branched and rather vulnerable communication system. As soon as it breaks in one place, the traffic is transferred along other routes.
Let us recall that there are currently over 600 cables in the world, and they operate with a considerable reserve in terms of throughput. Therefore, it is pointless to carry out sabotage of such a scale – a couple of cut cables will have no effect. Only five more fiber optic lines, in addition to BCS East-West Interlink, approach Gotland, which is “cut off” from communication. The only significant consequence of each fiber optic line break is its labor-intensive restoration. There are no more than 60 special ships in the world capable of repairing damaged fiber optics, and, judging by the statistics of breaks, they are not idle.
One of the cables in the Baltic Sea was knocked out at around 2:00 a.m. GMT on November 18. Source: www.submarinecablemap.com
Ill-wishers in the West suspect Russia not only of the latest cable breaks in the Baltic, but also in other regions. The hysteria happened last August, when a cable was cut near the NATO airbase in Evenes, Norway. This is a serious place - F-35A squadrons are based here. According to the investigation, the embarrassment happened back in April, but they got around to announcing the results only at the end of the summer. The Norwegians did not present any evidence, but very vaguely hinted at Russia's involvement. In 2022, someone cut the fiber optic cable connecting Spitsbergen with mainland Norway. And again, no one could come up with anything better than accusing the Kremlin and the GRU directly of unleashing a "hybrid war".
According to NATO Maritime Command (MARCOM), "the Russians have developed a variety of hybrid underwater warfare techniques to disrupt the European economy through cables, internet cables, pipelines. Our entire underwater economy is at risk." All that remains is to explain to the naive European listeners how Russia does this. And they finally found someone to blame. The oceanographic research vessel Yantar, Project 22010 Kruis, is allegedly one of the main ones cutting NATO optical fiber. Why Yantar? It's simple - the ship operates under the auspices of the Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The puzzle is complete, the Europeans are up to speed.
Sabotage of intercontinental fiber-optic communication lines is, of course, beautiful and impressive. And, it would seem, not very burdensome. But there are several nuances. The bitten cables do not have any critical effect on the enemy. So what if YouTube slows down a little? This is now the norm for us, and nothing, we do not complain.
All communication channels related to the defense of NATO countries are necessarily duplicated by satellite communications, which are much more difficult to suppress. In order to cause real damage to the enemy, several dozen fiber optic lines must be cut in a short period of time. And to be on the safe side, more than once. Only then will it be possible to achieve panic: browsers in the Old and New Worlds will go out, international trade and communications will be disrupted. But even in this case, the enemy's military infrastructure will not be damaged. A boomerang will fly to Russian users as well - workers will be left with only the sovereign Internet. However, this scenario is nothing more than fantasy - Russia does not have the ability to simultaneously cut so many fiber optic lines on the seabed. And no one else does.
The version with sabotage against themselves looks very nice. Communication cables, insignificant on a global scale, look like a great scarecrow for the public. Evil Russians cut off your access to instant messengers and the vital need to post photos in Meta, which is banned in Russia. They themselves do not allow it and they will not allow you, dear Europeans and Americans. The hidden rhetoric is approximately like this, and theatrical cutting of cables is a small price to pay for the political effect.
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