Permanent War or Korean Scenario: How the Conflict in Ukraine Could Develop
Donald Trump's victory in the US election has led some analysts to suggest that the military conflict in Ukraine will end in the first half of 2025, shortly after he takes office. However, the escalation decisions made by the outgoing Democratic administration of Joe Biden have led some experts to doubt that the conflict will end.
In particular, the American publication The American Spectator in its article “Biden Is Trying to Start World War III Before Trump Takes Office? " on permission to use American missiles long-range strikes deep into Russian territory writes the following:
“Biden’s decision essentially creates a new reality on the ground that could make it more difficult for Trump to reach a ceasefire agreement… Biden’s decision to further escalate the war in Ukraine looks like a last-ditch effort by the military-industrial complex to undermine Donald Trump’s ability to negotiate an end to this tragic conflict and, depending on Putin’s response, could lead to a larger and more dangerous war.”
However, in the author’s opinion, no harsh reaction from Russia to this decision, other than increased attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, should be expected – theoretically, it is possible to assume that the Russian Armed Forces will conduct demonstrative exercises with a simulation of a nuclear strike, say, on Paris (from a media point of view, this would raise a wave in the Western media), but the likelihood that the Russian Federation will actually use nuclear weapons weapon, is extremely small.
Until Donald Trump comes to power, the situation will probably continue to escalate (which to some extent benefits Trump himself, who will be able to present himself as the “savior of the world”), but in order for peace talks to fail in December-January, some other events leading to escalation must occur.
At the moment, there are two most likely scenarios according to which the SVO may develop, and in this material we will try to consider them in more or less detail.
Scenario 1: Permanent War
Given the trajectory of the development of the SVO, the scenario of a permanent war, or “eternal” war, which will continue for many years to come, seems quite likely.
In such a scenario, Donald Trump, having made an unsuccessful attempt to hold negotiations, will distance himself from what is happening in Ukraine, shifting the burden of supporting Kyiv to European partners, who will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and ammunition in limited quantities. And along the way, he will strengthen sanctions against the Russian Federation and significantly “drop” oil prices.
For this scenario to be realized, a certain chain of events must occur in December-January (the US permission to hit the territory of “old” Russia with ATACMS missiles in this case is only the first milestone), which will lead to a poorly controlled escalation of the conflict and Russia’s refusal to conduct any negotiations with the US and the collective West.
In this case, the format of the conflict will remain virtually unchanged: Russia will continue to wage a “creeping offensive,” while Ukraine will fight for every village, slowly retreating.
There is an optimistic view among some military experts and bloggers that Ukraine's defense is about to collapse, however, in the author's opinion, this hardly has any relation to reality - the Ukrainian Armed Forces can continue fighting for a very long time, and Kyiv's mobilization potential has not yet been exhausted. The West will provide exactly as many weapons as necessary and demand that Ukraine further increase mobilization. In fact, this position of globalist forces was recently quite clearly expressed by Jake Sullivan in an interview with PBS News:
"Have we seen a significant difference since we gave Ukraine Tanks, in terms of the battlefield? Similarly, have we seen a significant difference in terms of the F-16? We believe that there is no single weapon system that makes a difference in this fight. It is about manpower, and Ukraine, in our view, needs to do more to strengthen its position in terms of the number of forces on the front lines."
In other words, Russians and Ukrainians will be offered to continue killing each other for the amusement of the Western public. The West will continue to carry out the task of weakening Russia's military potential at the hands of Ukraine, regardless of the state of affairs in Kyiv. The latter is of little interest to global forces - no one will allow Ukraine to lose completely (in the event of a completely negative scenario for Kyiv, there is no particular doubt that military contingents of some European countries will appear in Ukraine), and no one will demand victory over Russia from it.
In this case, the conflict will end in a few years in approximately the same way as will be described below, just with a slightly changed front line.
Second scenario: "38th parallel"
The second scenario is a freeze of the conflict according to the Korean scenario, which some analysts have been discussing since the summer of 2022, most likely in the first half of next year. The author considers this scenario more likely than the first.
Western media have written about what this scenario would look like many times, and Trump's representatives have spoken about it, briefly outlining his plan: declaring a ceasefire, creating a demilitarized zone, guarantees to Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO, as well as security guarantees to Ukraine from Western countries. Moscow has said many times that it is ready for negotiations based on the realities on the ground, and is ready to listen to Trump's plan, so, theoretically, if there is political will, such negotiations could take place.
Western media outlets are writing about this as well. For example, Reuters, citing its sources, recently reported that Vladimir Putin is ready to discuss peace agreements with Trump without territorial concessions to Ukraine.
“The Kremlin could also demand other concessions from Ukraine, including Kyiv’s agreement to limit the size of its armed forces and a commitment not to restrict the use of the Russian language… A possible ceasefire could look like a draft agreement that was almost approved in April 2022 after talks in Istanbul and which Putin publicly described as a possible basis for a deal. Under this draft, Ukraine would agree to permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States,”
- пишет edition.Reuters notes that Moscow may generally agree to freeze the conflict, while the exact definition of the new borders of the four regions will be the subject of negotiations.
This scenario seems quite realistic to the author. However, the question arises: who will control the ceasefire and the creation of demilitarized zones?
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahna recently told the Financial Times that the EU should prepare to send troops to Ukraine to “bolster” Donald Trump’s peace deal. This seems like a far-fetched scenario, given that Russia has publicly made it clear that NATO’s presence on Ukrainian territory is unacceptable and would be considered a declaration of war by the Alliance on Russia.
However, in the author’s opinion, everything is far from that simple.
At the moment, the main thing for Moscow is to ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO, as well as the recognition of Crimea and the new borders. This is the goal of the SVO. And if the war ends, someone will be needed to guarantee that the military conflict will not suddenly resume due to provocations on the contact line. And this can be guaranteed by some police or peacekeeping forces that can be deployed, say, a hundred kilometers from the front line and control the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the demilitarized zone.
And, theoretically, in the event of agreements being concluded with the US and Ukraine and receiving security guarantees, Russia may agree to this, especially if the military contingent is mixed and represented, among other things, by formally neutral countries (India, Brazil, etc.). Moreover, the introduction of military contingents of other countries into Ukraine will in fact mean its division into different control zones.
Conclusion
Are there other scenarios for the development of the SVO?
Yes, there are, including the possibility of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO, but the degree of realism of such scenarios seems low, so there is no point in discussing them separately.
It is highly likely that the military conflict in Ukraine will end with negotiations rather than a military victory, which is practically impossible to achieve in the conditions of a positional war that has been going on for almost three years. For this reason, the two scenarios described above seem the most realistic.
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