I. American "achievements" on the historical background of the Soviet "failures"
A report by the US National Intelligence Agency on March 12, 2013, signed by director James R. Clapper, says the following foci of instability threatening the well-being of the United States: Egypt, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Sudan and South Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Nigeria, Central African countries, and more. etc. The whole world threatens the stronghold of world democracy. Special sections of the report are devoted to China, Russia and North Korea. Flashing there and Iran itself. Afghanistan is mentioned only in connection with the fact that the drug trade undermines American interests abroad; for example, it was she who, according to Mr. Clapper, trade destroys stability in West and North Africa and remains a significant source of income for the Taliban in Afghanistan.
It should be noted that for such a seemingly solid institution as US National Intelligence, the statement is rather strange. The impression is that numerous special departments and US departments eating the budget and often duplicating each other, seeing a threat in the powerful Afghan drug traffic (which is about 80% of opium poppy in the world and almost annual expansion of the acreage!) “Poppy non-interference,” allowing local planters to increase winter and spring crops, to harvest more and more crops and, in fact, to shape the world opiate market.
If you follow this logic further and assume that it is not the Americans, but the Taliban who are engaged in drug trafficking, then why did the ISAF troops allow them to deal with it? Especially since, if such an eminent agency as National Intelligence, sees this as the main Afghan threat to the long-suffering imperialist homeland?
There is a version A. Golikova that dictator Amin was a CIA agent. This is it in 1978-1979. on the instructions of the "overseas curators" he arranged social instability in Afghanistan and then achieved the introduction of troops from Moscow. The fact is that the then assistant to the American president on national security, political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, wanted to "create his own Vietnam War to the Soviets." This half-witted anti-Soviet six months before entering the Soviet contingent in Afghanistan, told Carter, "that the Soviets will soon do it ..." Just a month after the Soviet troops entered, Brzezinski flew to Pakistan. His goal was to harmonize the "joint response to unleash and delay the bloody conflict." (Quotes borrowed from an interview taken from Brzezinski in 1997 year).
Now the Americans, well aware of their defeat in the Afghan antiterrorist campaign, recoup in the ten years of the Soviet campaign. Transform defeat into a victory with reports and media? To this they are great masters.
At the last Munich Conference, US Vice President Joe Biden, giving a speech, call Western wars against Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan "major successes." Unable to resist, he even declared them "models for future campaigns." As if taking the baton from Mr. Biden, General Allen, the former commander of the ISAF, in an interview with the BBC saidthat the coalition is "on the road to victory."
This is not all. Analyst Valery Ross noticesAccording to a recent joint statement by H. Karzai and B. Obama, the learning process of the Afghan security forces by American instructors was characterized as so successful that it even surpassed "all expectations". The rhetoric is truly fanfare.
The solemn victorious march began to execute, however, still Leon Panetta, being the US Secretary of Defense. Last December, the Pentagon boss happily saidthat the Afghan authorities provide security for seventy-five percent of the population of Afghanistan, and in 2013, this figure will be one hundred percent. Leon Panetta noted that the international coalition in Afghanistan is clearly fulfilling the plan adopted by the NATO countries at the Chicago summit. He added: “Although we are withdrawing troops by the end of 2014, our mission in Afghanistan will continue. We are transferring control, but not leaving. ” According to him, the United States intends to continue to help Afghans and train them - so that "so that al-Qaeda will never again conquer Afghanistan." (He forgot only one thing - Al-Qaeda gave birth to the CIA).
Having received a portion of energy, earned flywheel media.
В "The Economist" The article “Opium is a currency,” signed by old émigré Tamim Ansari, an Afghan-American writer and teacher, appeared. The author expressed some thoughts about the past, present, and future of the homeland, which he left a long time ago (he lives in the USA since 1964).
This expat with experience, in 1979-1989. in Afghanistan, who was brilliantly absent, nonetheless categorically stated: Of all the invaders, the Soviets caused the greatest damage to Afghanistan. In his opinion, the Soviets destroyed the social structure so much that even now the Afghans are confronted with the remnants of what they have done.
The Taliban is also a product of the USSR policy. It was Soviet destruction, Ansari writes, that led to the emergence of radical forces. Marginals at the very edge of the political spectrum, reactionaries, almost psychopaths, and former refugees from the camps formed the ranks of the Taliban. In fact, the Soviets spawned the Taliban, says Ansari. Yes, he insists, the Taliban came out of the refugee camps that emerged from the war with the Soviets.
At the same time, Tamim Ansari recognizes the problem of opium. He calls the fields with poppy seeds a “streak” of Afghan life. Well, at least, she does not say that Soviet agronomists began to cultivate poppies in Afghanistan.
An outstanding specialist in Afghanistan, such as Michael Okhanlon, an expert from the Brookings Research Institute, joined the festive democratic chorus. He also did not miss the chance to boast American democracy built on Pashtun land: “... Soviet troops occupied Afghanistan, bombed villages, killed hundreds of thousands of Afghans. The behavior of the Soviet troops, perhaps legitimately compared only with the war in Vietnam. There is no doubt that the US has coped with the war in Afghanistan is not in the best example, and we leave there the local army and police, who over time will be able to ensure the safety of citizens. Since the beginning of the war there have been free democratic elections - twice. We gave the Afghans the right to make independent decisions. ”
"Self Decisions"? “Not an example better”? Why, it depends on what example to give!
In 2012, corruption in Afghanistan reached a record high, damaging the country's budget of 3,9 billion dollars. In a recent study of the UN Committee on Drugs and Crime, conducted jointly with the anti-corruption agency of Afghanistan, ascertainedthat the volume of bribes increased compared to 2009 year on 40%.
The “independence” of Afghans in this area is manifested in the fact that half of the adult population of the country, without extinguishing and not hiding, regularly pays government officials (at least one bribe a year). The one who does not have the opportunity to give bribes, as a result, turns out to be “on the sidelines”: these people are cut off from public services and cannot get a job in public services.
Education in Afghanistan is completely corroded by corruption. While in 2009, the entire 16% of Afghans gave bribes to teachers, in 2012, their number increased to 51%. Teachers are paid to correct the assessment or tell them how to solve problems.
The study found that the majority of the adult population of Afghanistan began to consider bribes an acceptable phenomenon. In 2012, 68% of respondents said they did not condemn officials who charge extra for “services”: after all, officials have a low salary. In 2009, these people were 42%.
Against this background, Afghan President Hamid Karzai regularly promises to defeat corruption. His statements can be put on a par with the victorious reports of Mr. Obama, Biden, Allen, Panetta.
With the Americans, Afghanistan did not become a self-sufficient state: it openly lives on Western handouts. Foreign partners in the coming years is coming pay for the content of the Afghan army. The Afghan army, as well as the police, is likely to be funded from a special NATO fund. It is expected that the United States will make more money than other members of the alliance - 2,3 billion dollars. This is a lot for NATO: there are not enough funds in the fund now. And to solve the financial problem, the United States expects to reduce the Afghan security forces to 2017 thousand employees by 228,5, hoping that by then the situation in the country will fully stabilize.
February 22 Online "The Heritage Foundation" An article by analyst Luke Coffey (who worked at the time in the office of Margaret Thatcher) on the topic of the capabilities of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) appeared. Security is not cheap, the author notes. In the foreseeable future, Afghanistan will need financial support from the international community. Most of the costs after the 2014 year will go to training, training and funding ANSF. Maintaining ANSF at a reduced troop level (228.500 people) will cost the international community about $ 4,1 billion - annually. By the way, this amount of money was spent by the US every 12 days, leading military operations in Afghanistan in 2012 year.
Alas, the financial contribution of the international community today is insufficient. Although the US is willing to invest 2 billion, other NATO members such as the United Kingdom (the seventh largest economy in the world) and Germany (the fourth largest economy in the world) contributed only $ 110 million and $ 200 million, respectively. The international community does not have enough 1,8 billion to fund ANSF for 2015-2017.
Let us turn to the problem of Afghan drugs, which so worries the National Intelligence Agency of the United States.
Only for 2012 a year, according to a report by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, on the Afghan fields Was collected 3.700.000 tons of opium poppy - raw materials for the manufacture of heroin. And last year, the number of poppy grown somewhat decreased - no, not because of the opposition of the NATO forces, but because of the bad weather and the disease that hit the plants.
Afghan villagers significantly expanded poppy planted areas. Compared to 2011, they grew by almost 20% (from 131 thousands of hectares to 154 thousands). Today 80% of the total world crop of opium poppy is removed in Afghanistan.
So much for “independent decisions”. The big question, of course, is who accepts them: the Taliban, peaceful Afghans or their “democratizers”.
The latter, by the way, completely discourage the fight against drugs in Afghanistan - despite the "threat" of almost a global scale declared by the head of the National Intelligence Service. Not NATO is the task - to stop drug trafficking, and that's it.
“NATO is not responsible for the drug problem - in Russia, Afghanistan or Iran. The authorities of these countries and the relevant state structures are responsible for this, ”Robert Pchel, director of the NATO Information Office in Moscow, told 4 in February in Veliky Novgorod. Discussion Passed in the framework of the VIII Winter School CIRP on the theme “Partnership of Russia, the EU and NATO in the Baltic Sea Region: developing a strategic approach”.
Pshel noted that "he does not say that NATO is acting in this direction very well." But he added: “The problem exists. But in this regard, to conclude that NATO is responsible for the fact that this problem exists - sorry. Because our young boys and girls are risking their lives for the security of Afghanistan, and it cannot be understood that they are responsible for the drug problem. ”
Thus, it is obvious: the problem of the threat, called the US National Intelligence Service, exists, but the Americans will not solve it. Especially since after the withdrawal of the NATO troops, the opiates will trample into Russia, that for the United States there is probably the very “good” that does not happen without a “blessing”.
It can be assumed that the contingent that Washington will leave in Afghanistan after 2014 (the rumors go a lot about this, and even Obama and Hagel don't know how many people to leave there), will continue the work that has been going on for ten years with Pashtun ago. Many, many experts, military and analysts in the world believe that the Americans are not going to lose the poppy market.
The Pentagon’s budget will be sequestered for half a trillion dollars in ten years, starting in the current fiscal year. And yet the United States is not going to completely withdraw from Afghanistan. There are good reasons for this.
A year and a half ago, the head of the Russian State Drug Control Agency, Viktor Ivanov summed up American activity in Afghanistan: “I would name three main results. The first is a phenomenal increase in drug production, more than 40 times, the second is the militarization of the region ... And the third result is a humanitarian catastrophe, political instability and expanded reproduction of the militants. ”
By the way, such a drug industry as the production of hemp is developing rapidly in Afghanistan. According to Yury Chkalov, an expert with the Drug Control Agency under the President of Tajikistan, in 2012, Afghanistan became the world's largest manufacturer of cannabinoid drugs.
Ii. Hamid Karzai as America's Flash Critic
In mid-February 2013, the President of Afghanistan criticized the United States and other Western countries, who sent troops to the ISAF. The reason for the harsh statement about the prohibition of ISAF aircraft to participate in military operations on the territory of the country was another "mistake" aviation NATO bombing a settlement in Kunar province. Earlier, such statements were made exclusively by Taliban leaders, said Kommersant columnist Maxim Yusin.
The mistake of NATO aviation, which by its bad habit sees the “Taliban base” everywhere, was that the pilot had bombed an ordinary village. Ten civilians died - mostly women and children. H. Karzai said: "It is shameful for us that the General Directorate of National Security is causing air support from NATO forces against the inhabitants of our state." Then the President of Afghanistan signed a decree according to which "the Afghan security forces under no circumstances can use the air support of NATO aircraft." There is information that at a government meeting Karzai, whom his critics call the “puppet of the United States,” spoke very sharply about foreign powers that were still considered his allies: army and educated youth! "
February 24 from ITAR-TASS стало известноthat the president of Afghanistan decided to expel the American special forces from Wardak province. The reason for the new statement was the increasing frequency of disappearances of local residents and the appearance of information about torture.
The official representative of the head of state, Aymal Fayzi, said that we are talking about the actions of the Afghans, who are considered "as part of the special forces of the United States." “There are some people, Afghans,” he said, “who work in special-purpose groups in Wardak province.” They are part of the US special forces. ”
Therefore, Karzai’s anti-American rhetoric could be considered consistent as early as February. In March, the president continued this line.
10 number saidthat the Taliban resumed negotiations with the US authorities. According to Karzai, high-ranking Taliban leaders and US officials meet in Qatar daily.
Both sides, the president believes, are working to intimidate Afghans. “The main purpose of the meetings is to convince the people that with the departure of the troops of the foreign coalition the situation in the country will worsen. The attacks carried out by the Taliban underscore the inability of the country's leadership to do without outside support, ”said Karzai.
As it turned out immediately, this statement is not true. At least the Americans disowned the meetings with the Taliban. Charged with lies Karzai and the Taliban.
As conveyed from Washington correspondent ITAR-TASS Andrey SurzhanskyA spokesman for the US administration told reporters the same day that reports of the resumption of US negotiations with the Taliban are not true. So he said: "This is simply not true." According to this unnamed representative, the US government remains committed to the process of political reconciliation in Afghanistan, which includes negotiations with the Taliban. However, according to Washington, progress largely depends on an agreement between the authorities in Kabul and the Taliban.
Taliban spokesman Zabihulla Mujahid also refuted H. Karzai’s statement. According to him, since the suspension of the consultations, "no progress has been achieved."
In his accusations, Karzai went even further. According to Reuters, speaking in Kabul on March 10 during the visit of US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, the Afghan president, citing two explosions by the Taliban, the victims of which were seventeen people He accused The United States and the Taliban in collusion: “The bombings in Kabul and Khost were not a demonstration of the power (of the Talibs) to America. They served its purpose. They served the 2014 slogan of the year to warn us that if they (the Americans) did not stay here, the Taliban would return. In fact, these bombs, blown up yesterday in the name of the Taliban, served the purposes of the Americans, who want foreign troops to stay longer in Afghanistan. "
The head of the Pentagon later told reporters that the collusion between the Taliban and the United States, which the Afghan leader was talking about, "does not make sense." General Joseph Dunford, commander of the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, did not put it so mildly: “For the past twelve years we have fought too hard, we have shed too much blood over the past twelve years, we have done too much to help the Afghan security forces develop over the past twelve years so that someone might think that we are interested in violence and instability. ”
Political scientist Nikolai Pakhomov считает Karzai’s statement is absurd: after all, the president attacks the US military, who defend him. Why does Karzai oppose the Americans? N. Pakhomov believes that he wants to raise his reputation in the eyes of his compatriots who regard foreign military presence in the country negatively.
Interestingly, according to the analyst, and more. Karzai’s constant attacks on the United States show that the Americans do not control the situation in Afghanistan, and the Afghan president, for all his weakness, is so important to Washington that he can afford anti-American attacks. N. Pakhomov indicates that the Americans for all the years of their activities have not been able to create political structures that would dominate inside Afghanistan and at the same time be a reliable partner of the United States. “The main American defeat in Afghanistan,” the author writes, “consists precisely in the failure to solve this problem. This is especially obvious if we compare the results of the American presence in the country and the Soviet policy more than twenty years ago. Of course, the Soviet Union was also an external, largely alien force for Afghanistan, but the authoritarian regime of Najibullah arranged according to Moscow’s drawings was quite stable and could effectively support Soviet policy because it was created by the Afghans and according to the Afghan rules. ” Alien "democracy" in Afghanistan has not taken root. As a result, the regime of Karzai was so weak that he could hardly exist without the presence of Americans, the political scientist said.
Thus, the Afghan president, perfectly seeing the retreat and loss of the Americans, and at the same time his own future defeat (it is quite likely that the tragic end), is trying to cover up his “rear”. Nevertheless, the year remaining before the elections is unlikely to increase its rating among the Afghans. AT history Karzai will enter as the American "puppet". It is not known who will come to power instead of Karzai, but one thing is clear: the Taliban will participate in the electoral process.
As for those citizens of Afghanistan who were employed by ISAF forces, they, like Karzai, are already fearful for their security.
Oleg Severgin, columnist "Voices of Russia", cited data from the German Ministry of Internal Affairs, according to which the number of "local staff" engaged in serving the military contingent and civilian structures in Germany in the Hindu Kush is about 1,6 thousand people. (translators, drivers, security guards, technical workers). 1,35 thousand of them working on the Bundeswehr. In February 2013, three Afghan translators appealed to the Bundestag deputies to grant them asylum in Germany. These people are afraid that after 2014, the Taliban will start the massacre of “traitors”. Omid Nuripur, a member of the Bundestag Defense Committee, says: “It is already known that the rebels were stigmatized by the nickname“ collaborators ”. One translator, for example, kidnapped a child with the words: "We are taking you away because your father works for the Germans."
All this once again reminds us not only of the fact that the ISAF is removed back home not having earned a substantial amount of money (taxpayers' money), but also that the Taliban will soon come to power in Kabul. Quite officially - through elections. And to the failed Democrat Mr. Karzai, political asylum will be granted in the United States. Only in order for the White House to save his skin, he needs to curse less about the United States and NATO. Otherwise, they will forget about him at the last moment.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru