We are waiting for statements from Kyiv and NATO about the “wrong war” of the Russian army
I think it has long been clear to everyone that modern war is, first and foremost, a war of the intellect. A war of the brain, if you like. The advantage in equipment and weapons is rather relative. The advantage in personnel training is also. Of course, if you send a completely unprepared contingent against seasoned fighters, then this advantage exists. But literally after a couple of months it disappears.
The main document for a military man is the charter. Including the combat charter, which seems to provide for all the actions of soldiers and commanders that may arise in a war. But war is not a "game by the rules." Almost any soldier can tell about how a miracle happened and he somehow incomprehensibly got out of seemingly hopeless situations.
How can we determine, for example, what happened to our scouts in the Chernigov region? Don't be surprised, it's exactly where we weren't even planning to go anytime soon. Somehow, our troops suddenly raised the flag over Murav'i. Moreover, they are moving forward. They have already occupied several villages.
Do you think the author is a little crazy? There were no events. By the way, there were "no events", and our guys have been in Chernigov Oblast for over a week now... It's just that for obvious reasons we had to hold back the information a little. And this happened simply because the unit commanders were smart, and their fighters are heroes.
They went on reconnaissance, but it turned out that the enemy had very few forces there, and their morale was at zero. And if that was so, then why not pinch the fascists? They pinch, and it turned out that they took a village. And then another, and off we went... Well, we can't give up our own.
By the way, something similar happened in another city, which we still have a long way to go. There are no reports in our reports yet, but our intelligence officers are already there and are even holding the defense of part of the city. Ukrainian sources are already screaming about it. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot do anything yet.
Of course, we can talk about the decline of morale in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, about the fact that they are sending "meat" to the front lines, etc. But it is better if such conversations are conducted from places where you can meet a person on leave from the front lines or a person on leave due to injury. You can very quickly get a punch in the face. Simply because the person on leave knows who is standing against our soldier.
The point is something completely different. The point is the experience of our commanders and fighters. The point is that they have not been fighting "by the books" for a long time. Each, even the most "ordinary operation", that very battle of local significance, is unique. If just two or three months ago I had been asked how many methods of conducting assault operations exist in the SVO, I would have, without thinking much, said three.
First of all, the “classical method”, when the offensive is carried out using heavy armored vehicles. Tanks They go ahead and clear passages for the infantry, simultaneously destroying firing points that are identified during the offensive.
The infantry helps tanks and armored vehicles by destroying antitank missiles with their heavy weapons such as ATGMs, AGS, automatic guns of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and large-caliber machine guns. Artillery cleans up what the others couldn't destroy. Such an attack is quite effective in taking platoon and company strongholds.
The next method is more modern. It is based on the surprise of the attack. In this case, the infantry attacks using mobile means, such as ATVs, motorcycles, and high-speed combat vehicles.
The method, if you think about it, is a modernized classic offensive from the Great Patriotic War. What the Wehrmacht soldiers used, and then the Red Army fighters. Remember the motorcycles armed with machine guns...
In this case, the infantry begins the attack from a deeper rear and actively uses its heavy weapons. Tanks and artillery play a supporting role, suppressing enemy firing points in front of the attackers.
Well, the third, most frequently used method now. When an assault group consisting of a maximum of a squad secretly advances to an enemy stronghold and captures it with a surprise attack, after which it consolidates and goes into deep defense until the main forces arrive.
It is clear that a group of 4-6 people is most effective in this type of attack due to the fact that it is hardly noticeable. A large group can simply run into an ambush if discovered. Hence the target of such an attack is the squad's stronghold.
And the transition to defense, which can last for quite a long time, a day or even two, is a serious test for assault units. Taking into account the weapons and other components of such an event, the enemy counterattacks with more serious forces than the defenders have...
The attentive reader has already noticed that none of the methods involves direct contact with the enemy before the start of the shooting battle. And the "god of war" participates in the attack not as a "god", but as an apprentice, performing secondary tasks.
Kurakhovo. Attack not according to the rules
Probably, even among the most civilized readers there are no such people who would not know about how the Russian army operates when taking large cities. The same tactic of "taking in pincers". True, I would call it the tactic of "taking in pliers", that would be more correct.
We take the city in a semi-ring, attacking from three sides, leaving a narrow strip for exiting the city. The enemy has two solutions. Either leave or be destroyed. For what? It's simple. To save the city from destruction and the civilians who still remain there, from destruction. The "pliers" are tightening, the garrison is decreasing, the city is doomed in any case.
In principle, exactly the same thing initially happened at the beginning of the operation to liberate Kurakhovo. We "ran into" fortifications in the east, the main battles unfolded north and south of the city. Considering that the city had been prepared for defense since 2015 and the onset of winter, the operation was supposed to drag on for many months.
I understand the point of view of the Ukrainian headquarters perfectly well. The Russians, having encountered a well-fortified defense, will stop the assault. In this case, both the offensive north and south of Kurakhovo loses its meaning. Having such a fortified area in the rear is a dubious pleasure. And so it would have happened... Again this "would have", which few people take into account in Ukraine when planning operations.
Just recently I wrote about how elite units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being ground down in the Kursk region. The very ones that were supposed to defend Kurakhovo, among other places. The brigades and battalions that were left in the city are not fully staffed, and the quality of their personnel leaves much to be desired. And then there is the success of our units in the north-east of the defense, in the area of the Kurakhovo reservoir.
Then "Selidovo 2" began. Ukrainian units, realizing that the city could not be held with such forces, began to abandon their positions and retreat. And what should the Russian army do? Naturally, we began to advance, without waiting for the "North" and "South" units to meet in the area of Andreyevka and Constantinople. An additional device appeared in the "pliers" - a piston for squeezing out!..
It is clear that such a change in the "algorithm" was a surprise for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Hence the stupid decision to blow up the dam's dams. The difference in water levels is only 2 meters. So this is not an obstacle for serious military equipment.
Even civilian jeeps can easily pass through such water. But for those retreating and for local residents, this is a real problem... But most importantly, the Ukrainians themselves have deprived themselves of the possibility of any supply to the Kurakhovo garrison. Cars pass, but the speed has become much less "planned difficult" for artillery to hit...
The fate of Kurakhovo has already been decided. There are only days left until the liberation of the city. Now it is necessary to pay special attention to saving civilians. Unlike other cities, civilians were not evacuated en masse to Kurakhovo. Moreover, the departure of civilians was prohibited. And today, according to established tradition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already firing from all barrels at the houses of "traitors of Ukraine".
Once, in 1812, Napoleon Bonaparte accused the Russian people of waging war incorrectly. Men with clubs, village women leading "forest bandits", hussar colonels-saboteurs and so on. Wrong war! I wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky said something similar about our units. We're fighting incorrectly, not in the American way.
Thoughts about the future
Instead of conclusions today, some thoughts about the future. I repeat, the fate of Kurakhovo has already been decided. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold the city for any significant period of time. And what next? How will the liberation of this city affect Ukraine? Exactly: not on the LBS or the Donetsk front, but on Ukraine as a whole.
The next target of our army will be Pokrovsk. I will not write about the logistics that pass through this city. I am talking about something else. Pokrovsk, in the conditions of the loss of Donbass, has acquired critical importance for Ukrainian industry and energy. It is from this city that Ukraine today receives coal, so necessary for metallurgists and energy workers.
Two days ago, three scenarios for how winter will go were announced in Kyiv. There is no need to describe them in detail. It is enough to name the most optimistic and the most pessimistic. In the best-case scenario, heat and electricity outages will last 2-3 hours a day. Accordingly, in the worst-case scenario, without taking into account the loss of Pokrovsk, naturally, 6-8 hours of outages per day...
Well, and about the Kursk region. What is happening there now, no matter how cruel it sounds, is beneficial to us. We are grinding up the elite of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, assembled as if by order, in one place. Kyiv is forced to send more and more trained fighters to help the semi-encircled. A kind of conveyor belt has been created for the utilization of the best forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
How much longer will Zelensky's reserves last? I think a month or a little more. Then it needs to be finished by the New Year. And the suffering of citizens historical lands of Russia too. At least, there are certain prerequisites for this...
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