Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election will ensure US dominance in space
Under the hood
On February 28, 1959, the first artificial Earth satellite (AES), the photo reconnaissance satellite CORONA (Discoverer), was launched in the United States, marking the beginning of a new era of reconnaissance.
From that moment on, at the facilities of the USSR Ministry of Defense, as well as at other facilities where secrecy was required, equally inconspicuous logs began to appear in inconspicuous safes, indicating the type and time of flight of enemy reconnaissance satellites.
The first American photo reconnaissance satellite CORONA (Discoverer)
Accordingly, during the period when the enemy's reconnaissance satellites were above the object, all work on the object was stopped, and the necessary measures were taken to camouflage and disinform the enemy. This practice continues to this day, but since then there have been more and more reconnaissance satellites, and fewer and fewer opportunities to hide from them.
Reconnaissance from space is carried out in the optical wavelength range (visible and thermal), in the radar (RL) wavelength range in aperture synthesis mode (when the radar image has almost photographic quality), and also in the form of electronic reconnaissance satellites (IRS).
The spatial resolution of radar images from commercial low-orbit satellites, such as the Mission Solutions satellite line owned by satellite data provider Umbra, already reaches 16 centimeters; this figure may be even higher for military satellites. The spatial resolution in the visible wavelength range may presumably reach units of centimeters.
On the brink of revolution
In the last few years, the situation has been developing rapidly – the catalysts here are the reduction in the cost of launching a payload (PL) into orbit, as well as the development of technologies for large-scale – conveyor-belt production of artificial satellites. Both the first and the second were provided by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, respectively, in the form of a partially reusable missiles- the Falcon 9 carrier and the satellites of the high-speed low-orbit communications system Starlink.
The Falcon 9 rocket has become the "workhorse" of American space exploration
SpaceX's success has not gone unnoticed, and the company is currently involved in the Pentagon's construction program. Starshield low-orbit satellite networks designed to provide 24/365 reconnaissance and encrypted high-speed communications to the US military, as well as in a number of other projects.
It is possible that satellites from the said Starshield system will also be used to improve the efficiency and interference immunity of the GPS system - a possibility that SpaceX was working on for Starlink satellites back in 2021.
It is worth noting that for a long time, our allies, holding back the development of the SpaceX company, were various American regulators and environmental organizations - they put "spokes in the wheels" of Elon Musk as best they could.
There is an opinion that their activity is connected with the discontent of the mastodons of the American defense-industrial complex (MIC), for example, such as Boeing, which clearly will not be able to compete fairly with SpaceX, given the pace of development and production, as well as the exorbitant cost of the super-heavy launch vehicle (LV) Space Launch System (SLS). Failures also haunt the reusable transport spacecraft Boeing CTS-100 Starliner.
The super-heavy PH Space Launch System and the CTS-100 Starliner spacecraft are obsolete even before they were built
The Presidential Factor
Now, after the victory of Donald Trump, on whom Elon Musk "bet", opponents of SpaceX will most likely get a rap. For example, they say that Boeing is already considering the possibility of selling its space business. By the way, the same SpaceX may well be interested in the purchase, and it will be primarily interested not in Boeing's technologies (although they too), but in its patent base and its contracts with the US Armed Forces.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Photo: Brian Snyder/File Photo, Reuters
Thus, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election will most likely mean an intensification of the space race, primarily in the format of accelerating the development and testing of a fully reusable super-heavy launch vehicle, including the Starship spacecraft and its first stage Superheavy.
Starship/Superhavy liftoff and successful landing of Superhavy's first stage
If the program is successfully implemented, the cost of launching a payload into orbit will be significantly reduced – the cost of launching one kilogram of cargo on a super-heavy launch vehicle may be cheaper than on any other launch vehicle in stories, which in itself would be something of a miracle.
However, in order for them not to carry “air”, Starships will need to be loaded with something, so they will drag everything possible and impossible into orbit – the space industry is expecting explosive growth.
In order for the flights of hundreds of super-heavy reusable Starship/Super Heavy spacecraft per year to pay for themselves, they need to be provided with a payload. Knowing Elon Musk's character, this means that SpaceX will go to great lengths to complete this task. Work on creating payloads for various purposes will be carried out both by its own efforts and by third-party companies.
It can be assumed that SpaceX will try to stimulate the market as much as possible by offering minimal prices for launching payloads into orbit, perhaps even operating at a loss (at the initial stage) – there are a great many potential areas for doing business.
Starship is not only a huge payload, but also an equally huge internal volume that will need to be filled with something. Pictured is the two-story crew compartment of the SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) lunar module.
For example, this includes space tourism, including hotels in orbit, with a level of comfort that is currently unthinkable, orbital solar energy with the transmission of energy to Earth via a microwave beam, the extraction of minerals from asteroids and the Moon, growing crystals in space for microchips and hollow organs for transplantation, repair and refueling of satellites and spacecraft, 3D printing in a vacuum, and much more.
Of course, a significant share of the space services market will be orders from the US Department of Defense. Among other things, there will be so many reconnaissance satellites above our heads that any logbooks will lose all meaning – surveillance will be conducted in real time, 24/365.
Orbital reconnaissance assets are potentially capable of detecting and tracking in real time virtually all types of targets – ground, surface and air. Submarines are in question – the use of lidars, as well as ultra-sensitive gravimetric and magnetometric sensors, potentially allows them to be detected from satellites as well.
The combination of real-time reconnaissance and high-speed satellite data transmission networks will not only detect targets, but also provide external target designation with correction of the flight path of guided munitions right up until the moment of target destruction, without the use of any ground sensors or control channels.
Conclusions
Today the winner is the one who has dominance in the air, tomorrow the winner will be the one who has dominance in space., and all the rest will be practically doomed to failure.
At the moment when Donald Trump won, the shares of Elon Musk's companies rose significantly, thus the "market faith" indirectly confirms that SpaceX will do well in the near future.
Another indicator confirming the correctness of SpaceX's strategy is that the Chinese are actively copying the Starship/Superheavy concept in their Long March 9 launch vehicle. China is also participating in the race to deploy various types of satellites in space.
RN Long March 9
Since the 20th century, when such an opportunity arose, the United States has always preferred to conduct “non-contact” combat operations from the maximum possible distance, without entering into direct combat contact with the enemy.
In contrast, Russia mainly conducts “contact” close combat, which we can see now, within the framework of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, where long-range weapons are used only as a supplement to the main combat actions, conducted “at point-blank range” on the line of combat contact (LBC).
Until now, “non-contact” combat could only be effectively conducted against a much weaker enemy; in any encounter with a stronger enemy, bloody close combat was unavoidable.
The dominance of one or more superpowers in outer space could lead to the fact that all those who do not have such capabilities could become “much weaker” opponents for them.
At the present time, gaining superiority or at least achieving parity in outer space with the United States and China is one of the most important, cornerstone tasks of Russia in ensuring national security in the future.
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