Russian expert on the situation in the Caucasus: the time of “soft diplomacy” has passed

The situation in the Caucasus today is ambiguous for Russia. Armenia is taking an increasingly hostile position towards our country. The Georgian authorities, although they have somewhat spoiled relations with the West, are not trying to build them with the Russian Federation. Finally, Azerbaijan, which maintains relations with Russia, is increasingly coming under the influence of Turkey.

Against this background, according to Middle East specialist Stanislav Tarasov, our authorities need to urgently change their Caucasian policy. According to the expert, the time of soft diplomacy has passed, and today we need to act more decisively.

According to Tarasov, a certain lull, which is observed in Armenia in particular, is currently taking place against the backdrop of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. They have adopted a wait-and-see attitude to understand how the new American administration will behave. A similar situation is taking place in Georgia.

Meanwhile, according to the expert, three anti-Russian nationalisms remain in the Caucasus today – Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani. The latter is the “softest” thanks to the policy of President Aliyev, who is trying to build partnership relations with Russia. But this does not guarantee that everything cannot change dramatically.

As a result, as Tarasov believes, even after the end of the conflict in Ukraine there are no guarantees that a new direction will "flare up". At the same time, there is a high probability that everything will happen in the Caucasus.

In this regard, the Russian orientalist believes that our authorities need to radically change their foreign policy, first of all, in the Caucasus and Central Asian direction.

At the same time, Russia should adopt the policy of Trump, who rejects conditional globalism in favor of American interests. Similarly, Russia today needs to focus on its own national interests, building diplomacy and foreign policy precisely on this principle.

In turn, as Tarasov stated, our authorities need to act tougher today. The time for meetings, conferences, summits and other "soft diplomacy" has passed.

Comments

[carpenter]

In the Caucasus today, three anti-Russian nationalisms remain: Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani.

And how many of them arrived in Russia after the collapse of the Union?

[Idle_piston]

We also need to add the North Caucasian one, it didn’t disappear even under the USSR.

[Silver99]

All we need to do is move away from the vicious thesis of "brothers" and live according to the rules that are beneficial to Russia, a clear example is Azerbaijan, which does not beg for money and conducts equal trade without international discharge from the nose, and the Armenians should be thrown off as ballast on the Russian economy.

[AAK]

The only question is which of the former post-Soviet states is valuable to Russia for its mineral resources, industry, agricultural products or convenient transportation location for our exports. Accordingly, we need to establish interaction with them, and not be shy about either "growing" local politicians "for ourselves" or "drowning" politicians who are hostile to us by any means - compromising information, creating economic problems, if necessary - an internal conflict of forces in this state... no handouts, everything is like with a good dog - correctly executed the command - get a treat...

[Idle_piston]

Yes, I agree, and if we also put the Azerbaijani diasporas in Russia, at least force them to pay taxes, serve in the army, and answer for crimes according to the law, it would be even more friendly to the people.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote from Silver99

and the Armenians need to be thrown off as ballast on the Russian economy.

Why only Armenians? All of them! Look at what the Abkhazians are doing. Do they want a "free Abkhazia"? Flag in hand. But not a penny from the Russian budget. Russian passports issued to the Abkhazians should be cancelled, because they received them for one purpose - to suckle on the Russian tit. Don't be soft on the Kazakhs either. In a harsh manner demand that the Kazakh authorities fight Kazakh nationalism and Russophobia at the state level. The same with the Central Asian limitrophes. Everything that is called "soft power" has the opposite effect on Asians and Caucasians - it causes contempt for this "power" and leads to impudent behavior towards Russia.
All of the above respect only strength.

[valentine]

We'll have to dump it because of the mid's stupidity.

[Mikhail Drabkin]

Late!
We left Georgia powerless….
Armenia was given over to be devoured by Azerbaijan...
Where is Russia and where is Türkiye!!!

What to do - win the war, grow economically and not interfere ahead of time, and be realistic in recognizing the relevance.

Now a forceful solution is possible only in Central Asia, which is about to irrevocably wave its hand, and you are talking about the Caucasus….

[Wayfarer_2]

I have been saying this for a long time: enough of the carrots, it is time to remember the stick. Because the carrots are already taken for granted there, as something that will not go away no matter what attitude all these Armenias and Kazakhstans and Tajikistans have towards Russia. It is high time to remind this whole public how much friendship with Russia means to them, and what they can lose if they betray this friendship. Friendship not in words, but in deeds. They reminded Abkhazia just a little bit, and immediately the authorities there showed signs of sobering up. How did they remind them? They took away the carrot. Our leadership is still afraid - oh, how could all these Central Asian and Caucasian republics go under the wing of the West. How could they offend them, God forbid. But they see this perfectly well, they blackmail Russia with this, they are becoming more and more impudent and, using Russian resources, they are having affairs with the West with all their might. We need to take away their Russian pacifier, then. Let there be something else. Then it will quickly become clear whether they can live under the wing of the West. And stop burying our heads in the sand, pretending not to notice their betrayal, declaring strong friendship and cooperation with them and all that. We need to understand the truth and, most importantly, accept it. And not let things slide.

[Dutchman Michel]

Quote: Traveler_2

Enough of the carrots, it's time to remember the stick

No need for carrots or sticks. We need a high wall and a strict visa regime

[Dizel200]

Does this also apply to Chechnya, Dagestan and elsewhere?

[Askold65]

Quote: Dizel200

Does this also apply to Chechnya, Dagestan and elsewhere?

No. Unfortunately....They are, like, "Russian territory".....
But "...living by their own laws, little understood by us." (from Rogozhkin's film "Blockpost").

[Pravodel]

I've been saying this for a long time: enough of the carrots, it's time to remember the stick.

Since you have been talking about this for a long time, please write here what you mean by the whip and how Russia should act now. Only, please, without demagogy about toughness, about firmness, etc., but by points: 1, 2, 3, etc., so that we understand how it should be, and better in relation to each of the republics.

[newtc7]

I'll write for him, I guess:
1. All bases from the territory of the CIS - withdraw (Belarus is counted separately)
2. All subsidy programs - stop for all CIS republics. No more schools and hospitals at our expense
3. Ban on issuing passports to non-Russians from the CIS
4. Revision of previously issued passports, take away someone's passport and expel him
5. Visa regime with the CIS
6. Labor migrants: come, work for a year and get out of here, you can only return after another year.
7. No migrant families
8. Take away markets and retail outlets from Asians
9. Weapons are sold only at high cost and prepayment, no discounts
10. Multinational propaganda from info dumps - throw it in the real dump

And then calmly manipulate the number of migrants accepted and all other parameters. Let them first deserve to be Russia's friend, a privilege they do not deserve, to put it mildly.

[Pravodel]

Good plan, but there are some questions about it.
Item 1. All bases from the territory of the CIS should be withdrawn.
As soon as we withdraw the bases, the Turks immediately come there, and a Turkish belt is formed all the way to the Caspian Sea. And after the Turks, the Englishwoman, their best friend, will invariably come first, and then the Americans will come running. Do we need this, that's the question!?
p. 8 Take away markets and retail outlets from Asians
Are the main people at the markets Azerbaijanis? There are different markets.
p. 10. Multinational propaganda from information dumps...
Here, one must be extremely careful. Russia is a multinational country. And any attacks on multinationality can cost Russia itself too much.
And so, there is a grain of truth in the presented plan. Especially concerning control over migration flows from the CIS. Here, we definitely need to establish order with an iron hand. Otherwise, look, our grandchildren will no longer live in Russia, but in some completely different country. I don’t even want to think that this could happen.

[newtc7]

Point 1 - the Turks are already there, their approach to Russia is not at all in direct war, they are going to use the Turkic peoples to break up Russia and separate their territories. Do our bases in Tajikistan interfere with this plan? Not at all. Whether they are there or not, the Tajiks still do what they want and wag their tails in the direction of Turkey and the West. That's one.
The NATO base is already 100 km from St. Petersburg, so all these statements that they will set up bases are meaningless, anyway there will be no normal war with NATO, only a nuclear one, and we and they understand this, so it makes no difference. That's two.
8 - who if not them? It seems like in 99% of cases this is their topic.
10 - Russia is a multinational country, with 80% Russians. Therefore, the emphasis must be placed on the Russian core and other nations will follow. The more emphasis is placed on the Russian, the more other nations join the Russians, the more multinational, the more separatism. In my opinion, after 30 years, this is more obvious than ever. All these plav festivals and flags of Azerbaijan and Armenia, etc. on November 4, what is this anyway? This is the very same stinking multinationality that needs to be gotten rid of.
It is clear that somewhere I may be too harsh, but in general such a plan would bring them all to their senses in a year or two.

[Pravodel]

according to Item 1
Understand, the point here is not whether the Turks are there or not, but that as long as Russia remains in Transcaucasia, the Turks, and after them first the British, and then the Americans, will not appear in the Caspian. Do we need NATO military bases in the Caspian!? The question is rhetorical.
Yes, NATO is already 100 km from St. Petersburg. Does Russia need NATO to be so close to our borders!? This is also a rhetorical question. So we have to keep an additional army in this direction, and now along the Finnish border as well...
So, it's not that simple.
Here is an example of the current rebellion in Abkhazia. Those who spoke out against the government and against Russia have Russian citizenship, property in Russia and business. It is worth taking a very close look at the activities of these businessmen in Russia. This would be a very good action on our part. Here we need to act the same way as the Westerners do: if something happens, immediately put pressure on money and property. This will enlighten even the hottest Caucasian head.

[newtc7]

But I still think that the thesis about NATO bases is simply being exploited as an “illusion of danger”, and is being exploited both by the heads of the CIS and by some of our officials who are vitally interested with their money in what exists at the moment.
But in fact: Azerbaijan is already completely in Turkey, Armenia is being squeezed and will be squeezed, Georgia is already anti-Russian. That is, we have nothing to gain there. As for Central Asia, there will be no NATO bases there simply because these countries are squeezed between Russia, China, Iran and Afghanistan, they have no access to the sea, and in general there is nothing valuable there. Again, the words “not everything is so simple” are usually used to conceive a fairly simple and understandable situation with the aim of obtaining certain geshefts by certain groups of officials and businessmen.
And in general, NATO bases are not very frightening. Why? Because Ukraine has shown that NATO will never engage in an open military conflict with us for the completely understandable reasons of the presence of nuclear weapons.
And the fact that the Abkhazians need to be squeezed to the fullest is without question. That's why it's funny that a small half-country that simply won't survive without Russia, there will be a real famine, something else kicks up there, and this is what our toothless policy of eternal attempts to appease someone who can be ordered or presented with a fait accompli has led to.

[Pravodel]

In general, NATO bases are not very frightening. Why?... NATO will never engage in an open military conflict with us for... reasons of the presence of nuclear weapons

This is where you are deeply mistaken. For example, Syria, Iraq, etc., where the Yankees have crawled with their bases and from where they, well, can not be smoked out.
Now about the bases in Ukraine.
1. The US considered Crimea as a future naval base, which they had already begun to build. And if it hadn't been for the Crimean spring, believe me, they would have finished building the base, and we wouldn't have been able to smoke them out of there, we would have lost the Black Sea, and then the Caucasus.
2. The US has already built bases in Ukraine. This is one of the reasons why they are so clinging to Ukraine.
- Yarovsky training ground (Lviv region) peacekeeping and security center
- Ochakov (Mykolaiv region) - operational control point for ships
- Port Yuzhny (Odessa region)
- Military facilities in Shostka (Sumy region)
- s. Malaya Lyubasha Rivne region) 233 combined arms field (
- Goncharovskoye settlement (Chernihiv region) 242 combined arms training ground
And at all these facilities there are US and NATO troops.
And it’s not a fact that if Trump is told about all these bases, he will agree to remove them.
Is it enough or do you want something similar to happen in the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea!?

[newtc7]

They are in Iraq and Syria, so what? Does it make us hot or cold? For obvious reasons, they don't attack the Russian base, they sit there and protect the oil.
There are no questions about Ukraine, the east and center are Rus and should be home (and Lvov is a Russian city, but that's okay), and there should never be any NATO bases or British peacekeepers there. But why compare the original Russian territory where Russian people live with Armenia? Azerbaijan?
How do you put these lands on an equal sign, because of what? Because they were in the USSR? But it has long been gone, and will not be, and the lands of Azerbaijan are neither important nor interesting to us. Let them put their aircraft carrier there in the mountains or off the coast of Georgia - they still will not fight with us.
Therefore, domestic policy in the country MUST ALWAYS take precedence over foreign policy in importance, and therefore Novorossiya and Malorossiya are our domestic policy, the unity of which was disrupted by certain events, and Transcaucasia - it doesn’t matter what they do there and whose bases they set up, they are not “ours” anyway.

[Pravodel]

They are in Iraq and Syria, so what? Does it make us hot or cold? For obvious reasons, they don't attack the Russian base, they sit there and protect the oil.

Do you want them to sit here and pump something in the Caspian or the Caucasus? Then go ahead, destabilize the Caucasus and drive Russia out of the Caucasus...

[irdidaal]

Don't confuse multinationality and the united Russian people. You can call it Russian. These are Mordvins and Chuvashes and Tatars, Buryats, Khanty... all the indigenous peoples of Russia are the Russian people. And to say that 80% of the population of Russia are Russian is, at the very least, strange. 100% of the population of Russia are Russian, all who consider Russia their homeland.

[newtc7]

All this would be so if it weren’t for those very same games of multinationality.

[Ivan_Sergeev]

Yes, that's what is implied. There are indigenous and there are non-indigenous with their own separate states and their own dual loyalty. It's high time to stop being soft-hearted with the latter.

[newtc7]

Leave this propaganda empty talk for the first channel, when it says about 80% it means ethnically Eastern Slavs - Russians. Chechens and Dagestanis do not consider themselves Russian, and many more, so there is no need to broadcast this tale "we are all Russians" here, it is not so. If 100% of the population are Russian, then why the eternal "multinational" and all these incomplete formulations in the constitution? We need to stop lying, first of all to ourselves.

[Vladimir M]

The US is also a "multinational" country, but there they are first and foremost Americans. With us, it's exactly the opposite. There was a clumsy attempt to make everyone "Russians", not very successful so far.
In general, the national issue is a "painful" one for us.

[tsvetahaki]

Quote: Vladimir M

The US is also a "multinational" country, but there they are first and foremost Americans. With us, it's exactly the opposite. There was a clumsy attempt to make everyone "Russians", not very successful so far.
In general, the national issue is a "painful" one for us.

They had a "melting pot" - a smelting furnace where everyone was melted down into Americans. When our quirks started to take place - it got damaged, they fix it.
We have a "multinational country". This official name alone says everything that is emphasized. And it is so ingrained in the brain that it does not even raise questions.

[valentine]

The power in the Kremlin is Jewish. It does not consider it necessary to rely on the Russian people, on the contrary, it humiliates Russians in every possible way. Either they will exchange for Russian national power, or we will live in Khazaria, as the Chabadniks dream of. Or a riot.

[Pushkar]

"The power in the Kremlin is Jewish." Now everything is clear. If there is no water in the tap... In short, 88.

[tsvetahaki]

Quote: valentber

The power in the Kremlin is Jewish.

Even if it's Nenets.
It is not so much a matter of relying on the "Russian people", but rather a single standard of civilized rules, including for the Russian people and for officials...
We have enough boors here too. Proportionally - less, but otherwise - a pair of each creature.
Pay bribes to the police Russian Community - and Russians will be protected.

[Seal]

Quote: The Truth

As soon as we withdraw the bases, the Turks immediately come there, and a Turkish belt is formed all the way to the Caspian Sea. And after the Turks, the Englishwoman, their best friend, will invariably come first, and then the Americans will come running. Do we need this, that's the question!?

Where will the Turks come? To Armenia? The Turks will not even get involved with Armenia for money. Because it will cost them more. Yes, Turkey is interested in the implementation of point 9 of the Trilateral Statement of 09.11.2020.

9. Unblock all economic and transport links in the region. Armenia guarantees the security of transport communications between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Control over transport communications is carried out by the Border Service of the FSB of Russia. By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured.

But this is our Statement, it is signed by our President!!!
And the Americans have been in Armenia for a long time. By the time Sargsyan left, the latter had already managed to launch 12 American bacteriological laboratories in Armenia. He started launching them as soon as he came to power. He came to power in 2008, and the first laboratory in Armenia appeared in 2009. These laboratories probably have more security guards than the number of our 102nd base in Gyumri. And among the employees, every second one is probably from the CIA. If not every first one. So, there is no need to scare us with what has already happened a long time ago.

[valentine]

This is not a treaty, but whining and meanness. I am sure that the Caucasus will be set on fire.

[Seal]

Quote: valentber

This is not a treaty, but whining and meanness. I am sure that the Caucasus will be set on fire.

Are you talking to me ?
What "agreement" are you talking about?
Who will "set the Caucasus on fire"?
By the way, let me remind you that the Caucasus was already in full flames at the end of the last century and the beginning of this century. And nothing, they put it out. No, of course, small sparks still flare up - here and there, a few bearded men attack police posts. But these are isolated cases and they no longer pose a systemic threat to the state.
Georgia has sharply reduced the level of aggression towards South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are already on the verge of signing a Peace Treaty, which will finally put an end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani war that has been going on since 1992.
What specifically worries you? Where do you see the threat of "setting the Caucasus on fire"? Who and why would want to "set it on fire"?

[Luminman]

Quote from: newtc7

1. All bases from the territory of the CIS - withdraw (Belarus is counted separately)
2. All subsidy programs - stop for all CIS republics. No more schools and hospitals at our expense
3. Ban on issuing passports to non-Russians from the CIS
4. Revision of previously issued passports, take away someone's passport and expel him
5. Visa regime with the CIS
6. Labor migrants: come, work for a year and get out of here, you can only return after another year.
7. No migrant families
8. Take away markets and retail outlets from Asians
9. Weapons are sold only at high cost and prepayment, no discounts
10. Multinational propaganda from info dumps - throw it in the real dump

This is precisely the responsibility of any state...

[Wayfarer_2]

Oh, my God, it's all so simple, and the approach is general, why point by point and by republics. We give them all sorts of goodies at reduced prices, compared to world prices. Only because they are supposedly friendly and, in general, members of the CSTO. But at the same time, they do not behave at all like CSTO members, but develop cooperation with the USA and NATO members Turkey, France, Britain. So what? So, these same goodies (cheap electricity, gas, oil, fertilizers, grain, weapons, etc.) will be received only by those who pursue a friendly policy towards Russia not in words, but in deeds. The rest - at world prices, because they do not fulfill their allied obligations. And we must talk about this openly. And be sure to do something after words, i.e. warnings. If you want to do something by republics - Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan. Is that enough for now? No? Good. Those who sneakily do bad things should OBLIGATORILY receive a response in the form of drastic restrictions on entry of their citizens into Russia. Moreover, this should not be for a week or a month, but consistently, until the policy of this state changes. The same Armenia, for example. Additionally, a ban on transferring funds from Russia to this "terribly independent" country. Restrictions on issuing passports, and so on.

[Machito]

Quote: Traveler_2

I have been saying this for a long time: enough of the carrots, it is time to remember the stick. Because the carrots are already taken for granted there, as something that will not go away no matter what attitude all these Armenias and Kazakhstans and Tajikistans have towards Russia. It is high time to remind this whole public how much friendship with Russia means to them, and what they can lose if they betray this friendship. Friendship not in words, but in deeds. They reminded Abkhazia just a little bit, and immediately the authorities there showed signs of sobering up. How did they remind them? They took away the carrot. Our leadership is still afraid - oh, how could all these Central Asian and Caucasian republics go under the wing of the West. How could they offend them, God forbid. But they see this perfectly well, they blackmail Russia with this, they are becoming more and more impudent and, using Russian resources, they are having affairs with the West with all their might. We need to take away their Russian pacifier, then. Let there be something else. Then it will quickly become clear whether they can live under the wing of the West. And stop burying our heads in the sand, pretending not to notice their betrayal, declaring strong friendship and cooperation with them and all that. We need to understand the truth and, most importantly, accept it. And not let things slide.

The author also forgot to mention Abkhazian nationalism.
I agree with you that a tough policy should be pursued towards all nationalists in the post-Soviet space. All nationalists see from the example of Ukraine that nationalism is a very expensive thing. Nationalists should be beaten with the ruble, among other things. No freebies.

[valentine]

Not under this government. These people won't do anything for Russia. They've messed up as best they could. Others will clean it up.

[newtc7]

Not under Putin, this great strategist has only one tactic: "everything to others at the expense of the Russians." A typical Soviet functionary

[valentine]

I support it with both hands. I suspect that his headphones come from the Politburo. Well, or their offspring.

[valentine]

It's all true and it all speaks of a weak foreign policy, at least in the Caucasus. The policy of Leopold the Cat. It's time for Lavrov to retire, and not just him.

[paul3390]

Send all their diasporas to their historical homeland in full force, and forget them like a bad dream. There is such a viper's nest there that bringing them to their senses is more expensive than it costs. Let them sort it out among themselves. If they want to lie down under the Ottomans, let them lie down. In 10 years, they will run back without any options, the Turks are not sugar. Besides, I don't think that Aliyev dreams of being appointed by the Sultan Pasha of the Azerbaijan Pashalik...

One thing is clear - any sneeze against Russia and Russians must be immediately and cruelly punished. In one way or another. Until they understand that Russophobia is very expensive and very painful, everything will continue like this forever.

[bambr731]

One thing is clear - any sneeze against Russia and Russians must be immediately and cruelly punished. In one way or another.

Paul I agree with you absolutely. Only this way and no other way!!! Adversaries and traitors must understand that betrayal and attack on the Russian Federation will not go unpunished

[valentine]

What are you talking about if inside the country in SCHOOLS (!) the Aryans and Azeris are shouting at concerts that they will cut off the heads of Russian mothers?! An example is the scandal in Saratov. Putin has neither foreign nor domestic policy. It is not even funny to consider a Kiriyen woman a politician. A graduate of Hubbard College can only destroy (remember 1998).

[Pushkar]

Quote: valentber

Putin has neither foreign nor domestic policy.

As far as I know, the surname of our President is written with a small letter only in Ukraine.

[Seal]

You are wrong. The term "gadyuzhnik" is written with a "sh": gadyuшNick.
The following spelling variant is acceptable: viper's nest.
There are no complaints about the rest.

[Smoked]

What can we offer them? Fascism? A Tsar-father, religion and land? It's not the Middle Ages anymore.

[Askold65]

They have already been offered and done a lot... And instead of gratitude, they are dragging their medieval religion, Islamo-fascism and caliphate from their own yard onto OUR land.
The expert said it right -- it's time to bring them to their senses and wait for THEIR proposals, what they can offer US in exchange for the favor of the Tsar-father.... But here the problem is not with them, but with this very liberal quasi-tsar....

[Smoked]

The main thing here is for the humble patriots not to overexert themselves in the honorable business of, of course, searching for a “third way.”

[Askold65]

But there is no need to overexert yourself... There is a simpler way - to calmly and methodically tighten the screws, and then "we'll see"... and not pay attention to the squeals and protests of all sorts of dark and smoky people from the "third way" countries.

[Smoked]

I understand that you are not aware of the "third way". Well, okay then.

[Askold65]

No, I don't know. And how is it different from the "first", "second" and ... "tenth"?

[Smoked]

Forget it. You have your own wave anyway and it doesn't matter who you cut, reds or whites, it's all a sacrifice to the northern gods.

[Askold65]

It seems that you are the victim of your own fantasies.

[Smoked]

No, we have already crossed paths in conversations, I remember your reference points very well.

[valentine]

Why the third? The first, if you are talking about socialism. The Russian community is not one thousand years old, as is pre-Nikonian Orthodoxy. They relied on the community, according to the principle "the general is above the personal", etc.

[newtc7]

But open your mind a little and ask yourself - why should we offer them anything at all? Are we a prostitute on the highway? Where did you get this "clientella" mentality?!
Let them think what they can offer us, we are in a strong position so it is not for them to decide.

[Smoked]

I'm actually talking about different guidelines with values. This is somewhat different from your gender theme.

[newtc7]

One does not interfere with the other, what you meant - I think everything is clear.
And yet, why should we offer any guidelines and values ​​to Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan? We are already a more developed people than they are in all senses and spheres - if they want, let them follow us, if they don't want to, if they want to live in the Middle Ages or immediately jump into European postmodernism - that's their right.

[valentine]

As a reasonable person, you understand that no one will let the ashers and fighters jump. The question is in the choice of the elder brother: Russia or the Anglo-Saxons with the Chinese. They will not become sovereign. Moreover, except for the Uzbeks, no one in the battle has ever had statehood. Azerbaijanis were an Iranian province.

[sgrabik]

Smoked, it looks like you yourself are stuck in the Middle Ages, since you write such ridiculous nonsense.

[valentine]

You will be surprised, but in 30 years they have already become wild to the point of primitiveness. We must propose a common struggle for liberation from colonial dependence on capital and life in the Union of Nations. Enough lying inside and outside, and pleasing the national minorities at the expense of the Russian people.

[tralflot1832]

The COP 29 summit is currently taking place in Azerbaijan, and the state media is writing very entertaining articles - one of the articles is "If the EU does not change, it will fall apart." And the summit in Budapest ended in nothing, and no one wants to take responsibility. For a laugh, one libelous radio station from the US launched a "green projectile" from Western climate activists, at the instigation of 404. It turns out that the Caspian flotilla is causing irreparable damage to the ecology of the Caspian. It turns out that we sometimes shoot "Kalibr" missiles from there at 404, not only from the sea but also from the air! Greta Thunberg hasn't checked in yet, but she will soon. I don't know what we'll do.

[valentine]

Is this why the Ukrainians are reaching the Caspian Sea with their drones and bombing?

[sgrabik]

I support this, soft power without more weighty and tough arguments is worthless, therefore all priorities should be reduced to what should be beneficial first of all to Russia, its national interests, and everything else is secondary.

[bambr731]

I agree, soft power without more compelling and tough arguments is worthless

Absolutely right. Sometimes it's not a sin to hit it in the forehead for better understanding

[UAZ 452]

Between pouring out endless amounts of gingerbread and reciprocal obligations, and "punching in the face" there is a whole spectrum of different possibilities. But for some reason we don't know how to fine-tune relationships, we either have passionate kisses or fistfights.

[valentine]

The school of Russian diplomacy has been lost. Now they only know how to transport drugs via diplomatic pouch. But they could once.
We had Churkin in the UN, but he was killed.

[sgrabik]

And A.A. Gromyko was not bad at all during the times of the USSR, it was not for nothing that he was called "Mr. No" in the West.

[UAZ 452]

If diplomacy were the only state institution to degrade, that would be fine. The catastrophe is that the situation with the diplomatic corps is no different from that in other structures that make the state a state. When diplomats "speak thieves' lingo," our electorate likes it, but it does not indicate their suitability for the positions they hold, rather the opposite.

[valentine]

All this talk is for the benefit of the poor. As long as even the army continues to lie about non-existent victories, as long as the supply of the Ukrops near Kursk has not been cut off, there is nothing to talk about. With such management of the country and the army, it is impossible to move from one place, let alone win.

[UAZ 452]

With THIS, you can't even stand still - maintaining the status quo also requires professionalism. According to Lewis Carroll: you need to run as fast as you can to stay in one place.

[Pioneer1984]

First of all, we need to change our policy towards our national republics of the Caucasus. This endless farce connected with the pacification of the local natives has really gotten on our nerves.

[Askold65]

Quote: Pioneer1984

First of all, we need to change our policy towards our national republics of the Caucasus. This endless farce connected with the pacification of the local natives has really gotten on our nerves.

Sometimes you can’t understand whether Kadyrov was helping Putin fight banditry in Chechnya, or whether Kadyrov was using Putin (with the lives of Russian soldiers) to solve his problems with competitors for power in Chechnya.

[Vladimir M]

Kadyrov is not eternal and his "family" has half the Caucasus as "blood enemies". If it "flares up" there, it will flare up.

[Askold65]

He has a growing crown prince. The Kadyrov clan has a "roof" in the Kremlin and, if anything happens, our guys will be sent to put out the fire again. But he has his own personal army and the special services control everything there. Even ours don't go there, they only send money. The Emirate of Chechnya...

[Vladimir M]

This is what is so annoying, that "the guys from Ryazan" will have to "put out the fire" again. I don't think that the "crown prince" will be able to hold on to power.

[Askold65]

Kadyrov also understands this. That's why he "cleaned up" Chechnya well. The bulk of his opponents fled abroad and from there they wage an "opposition" struggle against him." Here is an article from Zen:

Vladimir Vladimirovich, of course, put a big galosh under his successors by creating the "Anti-Ichkeria" project from former bandits in the early 2000s. At that time, it seemed like a brilliant solution, but no thought had been given to how to logically complete the project.

Putin failed to replace the former militants with his own people. And for some reason they did not want to annihilate themselves en masse. But they quickly integrated into all the power structures with their own understanding and free interpretation of the laws. And now the Russian government is forced to turn a blind eye to the "special order" in the Chechen Republic, which does not quite clash with federal legislation. But there is no question of destabilization. As long as Putin and his gifts are in the Kremlin, there is Kadyrov with a team of relatives and friends and relative order in Chechnya. They hang medals on each other - and this is wonderful, they can even throw in state awards on occasion, so that they know that they have not been forgotten at the very top. If Putin is gone, who knows how the "loyal foot soldiers" will behave? Who will dare to find a way to deal with them, in the event of global changes and subsequent discontent?

It is impossible to stop feeding subsidized Chechnya, it will rebel and set the entire North Caucasus on fire. It is impossible to bring it to economic self-sufficiency. It is impossible to feed it on the same level as other depressed regions, they have become accustomed to a special approach, for which they pay with loyalty to our President. This is a suitcase without a handle, which we must manage to carry into a bright future.

[Vladimir M]

It's good that he cleaned up Chechnya, but that's for the time being. No one lives forever on this sinful earth.
Blood feuds not only in Chechnya itself, but also in the nearest national republics. If Kadyrov is gone, then it will begin - unfortunately, this is our reality.

[Askold65]

Quote: Vladimir M

It's good that he cleaned up Chechnya, but that's for the time being. No one lives forever on this sinful earth.

Continuing your thesis from the same article:

Volodin is right - modern Russia is Putin, without him the whole system will fall apart, and after it the state will start to crack. The question should be put bluntly, how to make Vladimir Vladimirovich immortal, at least for the sake of stability. And many wonderful things have been promised for the next decade - I would like to see how it is implemented.

As for me, this "galosh" was planted on Russia back in the days of Alexander II and the "conquest of the Caucasus", when they thought of adding this region "with a high conflict potential" (Putin) to the Empire. We are still sorting it out...

[Vladimir M]

This is what is scary, Putin is not eternal either. And what next? They haven't figured out how to extend lifespan to 200 years yet.
If the problem is only in the presence of "galoshes" and the problem is a priori not solvable, then maybe it is worth taking radical measures - to build a fence to fence off, whoever agrees to live only by Secular Russian Laws - welcome, if not - behind the fence. No privileges for "good family men", the Law is the same for everyone...

[Askold65]

Unfortunately, this is no longer possible. According to our Constitution, this is an illegal act and is prosecuted by law.
This measure was still possible in the 90s, but no longer.
By the way, you can take the US experience into account. I recently learned that Guam Island has the status of an unincorporated organized territory of the US (that is, not part of the US, but being its possession).
So Chechnya should be given the same status. And maybe some others too... And their behavior should be controlled from behind the fence.

[Vladimir M]

Well, history says that the Constitution can be “rewritten at the suggestion of the workers” - as long as it benefits the peoples of Russia.

[AdAstra]

The Constitution, as practice has shown, is just a piece of paper and can be rewritten; it is not a “sacred tablet.”

[Askold65]

Quote from AdAstra

The Constitution, as practice has shown, is just a piece of paper and can be rewritten; it is not a “sacred tablet.”

This is understandable... The question is different - who will take on such responsibility? Personally, I do not see such people on the horizon today...

[AdAstra]

That's why we need a Party now.

[Seal]

As for me, this “galosh” was planted on Russia back in the days of Alexander II and the “conquest of the Caucasus”, when they thought of annexing this region “with a high conflict potential” (Putin) to the Empire.

Even earlier.
Georgians and Armenians often write something like this
"Thanks to the Armenians and Georgians, the Russian Empire expanded its southern borders, and from 1828 they began to settle in the Transcaucasus, where three republics were formed."
I wonder why many Armenians and Georgians believe that the Russian Empire wanted to expand until it took over almost the entire world? No no and one more time no. We don't need to attribute that we wanted to capture everything and everyone. In fact, thanks to the Armenians and Georgians, we received, in general, territories that we did not really need and an almost century-long war.
Let's see how the Great Caucasian War began in general. What, really, we, with tens of millions of square kilometers of territory, could not do without the Caucasus and Transcaucasia? They could, of course.
Historically, our life was much quieter when we, Russia, were separated from Persia and Turkey by a whole conglomerate of North Caucasian tribes. The tribes, of course, annoyed us a little, but they annoyed Persia and Turkey exactly the same amount. Well, of course, the tribes in the North Caucasus fought so actively among themselves that it was not difficult for us to buy ourselves a dozen or two tribal leaders in order to radically cut off any possibility of Persia or Turkey to attack us suddenly. Well, it should be borne in mind that both of these countries have never suddenly attacked us in history. At first, honestly, according to all the rules, they declared war and only after about half a year, or even later, did they start fighting.
But one day we were lured to Transcaucasia. The Armenians under the pretext that they, as Christians, were being offended by Muslim Persians, and the Georgians – that they, as Christians, were being offended by Muslim Turks (Western Georgia) and Muslim Persians (Eastern Georgia).
We occupied the territories of modern Armenia and Georgia with our troops. And what did they get in return?
- eternal problems at the local level. Up to the assassination of our general by the Georgian queen Mariam, our general Lazarev;
- an eternal pretext for war with us for Persia and Turkey, which, of course, were unhappy that we had taken away part of their territory and dreamed of returning these lands;
- the entire conglomerate of North Caucasian tribes united against us, began to focus exclusively on Persia and Turkey, and we got a bloody, almost XNUMX-year war in the Caucasus.
Well, and most importantly, both Georgians and Armenians took an active part in both the 1905 and 1917 revolutions. Look how many figures with Georgian and Armenian surnames are among the "revolutionaries". And these republics themselves, as soon as possible, declared their independence in 1918.
It would have been quite enough for us that we took Baku back in Peter the Great's time (though we had to take it again later), where the Baku oil fields later appeared. And the current Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, as well as the Black Sea coast from the Kerch Strait to Gagra inclusive. Or better yet, to Batumi inclusive.

[Askold65]

Quote: Seal

It would have been quite enough for us that we took Baku back in Peter the Great's time (though we had to take it again later), where the Baku oil fields later appeared. And the current Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, as well as the Black Sea coast from the Kerch Strait to Gagra inclusive. Or better yet, to Batumi inclusive.

That's right. I'm of exactly the same opinion.
By the way, at the court/headquarters of Alexander II, the issue before the invasion of the Caucasus was decided rather difficultly, because there was no clear opinion on this matter. There were quite sensible politicians at the Council, who knew the situation in the Caucasus at the "expert level" (as they would say now). And they were the ones who dissuaded the Tsar from this adventure, arguing that what business did it have on us that the Turks were slaughtering Armenians and Georgians? If we got into this serpentarium, it would be a war for decades. And then we would also end up guilty. It was as if they had seen into the future...
But the "war party" won, consisting mainly of the brave generals of the war of 1812 and the campaign in Europe. They appealed to the fact that if they had dealt with Napoleon, then with these abreks in "slippers" - no problem. They got what they got....

[valentine]

The Unreliable One will screw everything up with his Jewish power. Or will he just give it up?

[Pioneer1984]

Definitely the second option.

[UAZ 452]

Well, yes - before they paid tribute to the Horde, and it was called a yoke, and now the tribute is called transfers and subsidies, and the yoke is called the restoration of constitutional order. But even in Moscow, Kadyrov's men behave in much the same way as the Great Khan's nukers did in their time. And who, you say, won in Chechnya?

[Askold65]

Quote: UAZ 452

But Kadyrov's men, even in Moscow, behave in much the same way as the Great Khan's nukers did in their time.

And Adam Delimkhanov plays the role of "overseer". They have a whole representative office in Moscow, guarded by armed militants.

He was not noted for his personal lawmaking or speeches. In the State Duma, he was noted only for a scuffle with deputy Zhuravlev, when the latter began asking uncomfortable questions about the basis for the mass of armed units in the republic and who they were subordinate to. During the scuffle, Delimkhanov's "golden pistol" fell out of his pocket. Who allowed him to come to the State Duma with a weapon - this question is not even raised. Another question should be raised: who can forbid him from doing this? Ditto.
In the history of Russia, this is a unique situation when a rebel and bandit, even a former one, is honored, awarded the highest state awards, and given the highest ranks. This did not happen either in the times of Imperial Russia, or in the times of the USSR, and even in the times of Yeltsin, this did not happen.

[valentine]

Russia has never seen such a vile and anti-Russian government.

[valentine]

It's time to explain to the Abreks that life has changed. It's time to explain to Kadyrov that it's time to roll up his lip, there's a war in the yard. And let him cut down his bandits before our men cut them down.

[belost79]

We pay a high price for Azerbaijan's soft policy towards Russia. Let me remind you that the country's second largest city is given to the Azerbaijani diaspora. The most profitable industries are given to them.
Prigozhin tried to enter the fight for the post of governor, but he was quickly told what and how.

[Pioneer1984]

This situation is not only in St. Petersburg. Azeris are pushing their own people into law enforcement agencies all over the country, and the government either does not see a threat in this or directly encourages it.

[dandy]

Well, you understand that the current leadership is incapable of a tough style of work in principle. The years of the previous policy have shown this well. In the Caucasus, strength, pressure, masculinity are traditionally respected, and all this snotty speech and action is perceived unequivocally as weakness. And how do they treat the weak? Accordingly, as suckers, who can be spat in the face and insulted, knowing that in response there will only be various admonitions. Personally, I expect that there will definitely be a blaze there, and perhaps not even waiting for the end of their own. It's a matter of time. We ourselves, we do everything ourselves for this. The stick should have long ago replaced the carrot.

[valentine]

Artamonov was shouting about it. The reaction was zero. The authorities didn't even grunt in the media. They're nagging at us all, though.

[foxes]

"Softness" in the South is always perceived as weakness.

[oleg Pesotsky]

General phrases and intentions are great, of course. But without specifics, it's just empty air shaking.

[ZnachWest]

Not under the current leadership of the country and the Foreign Ministry. They have lost all of Ukraine, what else is there to talk about?

[Monster_Fat]

Well, as Delyagin said, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, instead of ensuring the interests of the Russian Federation in the international arena and building favorable relations with surrounding countries and potential allies, was constantly engaged in promoting the sale of our raw materials, weapons and promoting the interests of Russian oligarchs.

[Vladimir M]

If we only had problems with Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, we could simply "fence ourselves off" from them. But Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and further down the list, and even in Abkhazia "fermentation" has already begun. After Abkhazia, "others" will follow.

[UAZ 452]

And these are all trifles, given the current state of affairs and unrest in the regions of Russia itself, and not only in the national ones, are quite probable. And the current tsar and boyars are fixated on Donbass, and even Kursk, Crocus, the shootout of Caucasians near the Kremlin did not sober them up.

[Vladimir M]

No matter how hard they tried to blame everything on Ukraine and Crocus, it didn't work out very well. For the "hurray-patriots" - I didn't say and don't say that Ukraine wasn't involved in the terrorist attack. But the fact is that it definitely "didn't play the first fiddle".
The perpetrators were sought through the diasporas, weapons from Ingushetia - these are the statements of our officials. Well, it is very doubtful that Ukraine has such influence on the diasporas in the territories of Russia.

[Pravodel]

Russian expert on the situation in the Caucasus: the time of “soft diplomacy” has passed

Time has passed. Is this a simple statement or is there some plan on how to proceed? If there is a plan, then share it here so that we understand how Russia should act...

[Sergei Fonov]

Truth-maker!
"If you have a plan, then share it here so that we understand how Russia should act"
The state has numerous institutes with a bunch of experts on excellent salaries to draw up plans. It turns out that all these institutes are simply an additional burden on the budget, or artificially created jobs, or the inability or unwillingness to use their advice, or maybe the advice is given in such a way that it harms the country.

[Moneron]

For all those wishing to show strength...ours should have brought back our compatriots from the country of pink ponies. Almost three years of victorious standing almost in place has already shown everyone our masculinity. ...and it has not impressed anyone. We have no strength...and people...we are not the USSR.Their resounding victories are not ours.

[UAZ 452]

A lot of blah-blah-blah, and the result is... Decisive - what is that? SVO 2? The first one didn't go too well. Does the author of this turbo-patriotic article not want to join the ranks of those who are the conductors of Russia's hard power? Or is he only talking about advice from the outside?

[K-50]

As soon as they start to act up in the Caucasus, then the citizens of that country who "marked themselves" will be expelled from Russia and banned from entering, depriving them of real estate in our country, and also stopping the supply of energy resources and other things that they consume from Russia for pennies.
And something tells me that they themselves will hang their politicians on lampposts in a very short time, after losing the “Russian trough”.
They've given us as little profit as a cat could have sneezed at, but they're a real pain in the ass. So we just need to push those countries to the brink of survival. What if they succeed and without any perks from our country they'll blossom into a paradise garden.

[S.Z.]

"In the Caucasus today, three anti-Russian nationalisms remain: Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani."

How many of them are there in total?

[dementor873]

They broke off trade and relations with Georgia in 2008. They ran around in the West for almost 20 years and finally realized that they were screwed. Now they are trying to improve relations again. So let the Armenians stew in their own juice.

[Tank destroyerSU-100]

I beg the author, because that's why we're groveling before Dushanbe, Yerevan and Baku, so that they come to all sorts of summits where we look influential. Otherwise, next to the PRC, we look somehow pale.

[rs777]

The Russian government supports not only Abkhazia, Ossetia, Chechnya, Dagestan, but also Armenia and Georgia. As for Azerbaijan, I don't know. An excellent scheme of work: they collect taxes and excise duties from us for nothing, and then this money is sent for nothing to our benefactors, allies and defenders... from the mountains.

[rs777]

Yes, and then - the budget deficit and inflation in the Russian Federation. 40 years of continuous sabotage, disgrace, humiliation and ruin. And not only the Caucasus - all the former republics, as they lived at our expense until 1991, continue to live.

[odisey3000]

Yes, it's a pity that the Tsar Father in those distant times together with the bloody Stalin did not solve this problem and headache, and it's a pity that there was very little left until the pacification of the Caucasus. And again the struggle for peace throughout the world. The result is shooting and shooting to this day and there is no end in sight.