Ukrainian Medium-Range Missiles or How the US is Bypassing President Putin's Warning
I don’t understand the optimists who laugh when they say that Zelensky, with a serious face, is increasingly talking about Ukraine’s breakthrough in creating new missiles medium-range. Yes, we have seriously reduced the capabilities of Ukrainian industry. Yes, we have seriously reduced the capabilities of Ukraine's energy system. Yes, the existing capacities are not capable of producing modern missiles, but...
I won't be surprised at all if we suddenly see some "Shmatok Layna-1" in the sky, aimed at Moscow or St. Petersburg. Yes, it will look like some Soviet development. Yes, its filling will consist of components from all over the world. But it will have Ukrainian registration. And it doesn't matter where it will be assembled and from what. It will look like..., but in some places it will be "unique".
We quickly forgot about Kyiv's plans, by the way, agreed with other European countries, to organize the production of weapons on the territory of neighboring states. Let me remind you that such plans were actively discussed quite recently, but then, suspiciously coordinated, all conversations on this topic ceased. One conclusion can be made. Either the decision has already been made, or Kyiv has received a refusal.
Zelensky most likely received carte blanche for such production. Again, let me remind you how long the US and Brussels have been looking for ways to circumvent the Russian ban on the use of medium-range missiles on Russian territory? Remember President Putin's warning? This warning was taken quite seriously by the West.
Using "Ukrainian" missiles for such strikes... Isn't that a solution to the problem? Strikes are carried out, but legally the West has nothing to do with it... A completely logical explanation. But the solution has so many nuances that the US will still have to answer for such launches, but the level of response will be higher than when using Western missiles.
High-tech warfare as a trap for the US
It is no secret that the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to resist, the use of many high-tech Western weapons critically depend on the United States and its Western allies. Imagine that communications from Elon Musk's company stopped working in Ukraine. What will happen if the troops are completely lost? What if the United States suddenly stops sharing intelligence information from its satellites?
But what if we "dig" deeper? Ukraine has preserved the "Soviet reserve" in the field of rocket engineering. But time moves inexorably forward. Soviet developments, no matter how progressive they were considered in the USSR, are aging. That is, using them in the form in which they were 40-50 years ago means creating weapons that are already "outdated" from the start.
Over the past half century, industrial capabilities have grown exponentially. New technologies have emerged that have almost completely changed the engineering solutions that were used in the past.
Much of what was familiar to today's pensioners not long ago is now wild for their grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Just yesterday I witnessed an interesting conversation between a grandfather and his grandson at a children's slide, from which the grandson wanted to slide down the first snow.
Naturally, they didn’t have any sleds. And the grandfather suggested finding a “cardboard box” and sliding down the hill on it. You should have seen the grandson’s eyes. What cardboard box? It was in the grandfather’s childhood, those same 40–50 years ago, that cardboard boxes were everywhere. Near any post office you could find a wooden mailbox, the walls of which perfectly replaced a modern “sled”…
You can use the "old" filling, you can use old developments of some systems, but how can you do without a modern guidance system, for example? How will the "Ukrainian missile" do without the NAVSTAR (GPS) system?
Next. Let's assume that Ukraine did produce some missiles. It doesn't matter what type. A miracle happened, and this missile has its own guidance system, independent of the American GPS. What next? Will the guys launch this missile manually? Does Ukraine have ground launchers or its own air carriers? No!
The appearance of "Ukrainian missiles", I remind you, the Kyiv authorities have repeatedly stated that Ukraine will receive "its own" missiles, both cruise and ballistic, in the middle of next year, has already been officially announced. From the latest, the statement of the director of the Ukrainian state enterprise "Spetstekhnoeksport" Alexey Petrov:
"I will say that both the state and, finally, the private sector are moving in this direction. And it was a reasonable decision to lift the monopoly on the missile industry. Therefore, I think that we will have our own missiles, say, cruise and ballistic, by mid-2025. I have seen the tests, so far only flight ones, but there are results."
I do not in any way deny the possibility of "producing" missiles on the territory of Ukraine. The scheme of such production has long been known and is used by many companies to circumvent sanctions. The so-called "large-unit assembly". When a practically finished product is delivered, to which you just need to screw an emblem or just paint...
But in any case, even the missiles “painted” by the Ukrainians will have US guidance systems, launchers similar to or even made in the US will be used, American software will be used, etc. Simply put, the Americans will not be able to hide their “tail”. This means that Russia may well “remember” President Putin’s warning…
With the result that
Ukrainian missiles may well be ready by the middle of next year. I don't think the newly elected US president will fulfill his campaign promises. Trump has said a lot. But in his promises he took practically no account of the state of relations between the US and Russia. The reaction of the Russian president to Trump's election is quite indicative.
Missiles with a 500 kg warhead, which is what the Ukrainians are announcing, are serious. Zelensky, cornered, will definitely use them. And then Moscow will be faced with a serious choice. Another "red line" that the enemy has ignored, or the promised response to the decision-making centers and factories that produce these missiles in other countries. I don't think we are happy with this situation.
Let me remind you again, the “red lines” have long been violated. We pretended not to notice. But the fact is there. What is the range of the British and French air-launched missiles Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG? Up to 560 kilometers! And the range of the American land-based ATACMS? 300-310 kilometers! According to some information, the Americans are already preparing to deliver air-launched missiles. And that’s another couple of hundred kilometers of range…
By the way, deliveries of modern missiles to anyone are nothing more than technology transfer. It would be strange if Ukrainian specialists did not get inside these missiles. And even stranger if they did not use the received technologies in their developments.
For myself, I have made a conclusion that may be paradoxical for some readers. It is time to end with Ukraine. Games “on the razor’s edge” are not only boring, but are also becoming truly dangerous. The danger is not in Ukraine, the danger is in other areas of the confrontation.
NATO is increasing production of ammunition and weapons, and, again according to some information, by the middle of next year this production will provide the necessary amount of ammunition for a serious "mess" in Europe. The American military-industrial complex is not lagging behind the European one and is also increasing production.
So... The division of the world into "ours" and "not ours" continues, and we must be prepared for anything...
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