Donald Trump Returns to the US Presidency. What Does This Mean for Russia?
Although all the votes have not yet been counted, the preliminary results of the election are already known – Republican Donald Trump received the necessary number of electoral votes in key states and won a fairly convincing victory. In addition, the Republican Party gained control of the Senate and is likely to gain control of the House of Representatives.
This turn of events is hardly unexpected – in the run-up to the election, preliminary polls showed that Donald Trump’s chances of winning were higher than those of Kamala Harris. Despite the fact that many major media outlets, traditionally supportive of the Democratic Party, assured their readers that Harris could not lose, the mood of the Americans themselves was completely different. Harris was primarily associated with the legacy of Joe Biden (this is what Trump played on), and the attitude of US citizens towards this old man suffering from dementia has been mostly negative in recent years.
In this regard, it would be logical to make certain assumptions about what Trump’s policy might be, including in relation to Russia.
Why Americans Voted for Trump
As is known, the bulk of Donald Trump's electorate is made up of white conservative Americans (especially workers), but in this election he managed to gain the support of very broad groups of the population, including "people of color". No joke - compared to the 2020 elections, he improved his advantage in 2367 counties.
Compared with the Republican’s triumphant 2016 election, Trump’s support has increased across the board, including among voters who were previously skeptical of him. Trump is on track to win all seven swing states. He has made gains in every corner of the U.S. and among nearly every demographic group. Even liberal bastions like San Francisco and Alameda County voted for Trump.
"Ten years ago, Democrats had very different expectations. Many assumed that demographic and generational changes would create a new Democratic majority. But many voters, whom Democrats considered the core of their coalition, were so disillusioned with the current situation that they chose to support Mr. Trump," laments, in particular the liberal New York Times.
In fact, Democrats had a lower chance of winning this election to begin with, as rarely has the party held the White House when the president's approval rating was as low as Joe Biden's. Winning by fraud (as appears to have happened in 2020) is only possible if the margin between the candidates is small, but Trump's margin of victory was so large that it would be difficult to pull off the same trick a second time.
Americans voted for Trump, first, because they were disillusioned with the Democratic Party's policies - even the left-liberal media that supports Harris admits that voters were disillusioned with the Democrats because their campaign was based on the assumption that voters would ignore any concerns about the new administration in order to avoid Donald Trump's reelection. That was a mistake.
Secondly, the agenda that Trump promoted was much closer to the American heart than Harris’s agenda, which, in essence, simply promised to continue Joe Biden’s policies and was not going to make any significant amendments to them.
At the moment, Americans are primarily interested in issues related to the economy and the immigration crisis - and these issues were central to the Republican agenda. This is evidenced by the results of polls of voters in the state of Arizona conducted by American media.
Those who voted for Trump said they believed the former president would improve the economy, lower gas and food prices, and make other countries respect the United States during his presidency.
"The last four years have been tough. The economy has been terrible. The situation at the border has been really bad," Mary Wepprecht noted in particular.
Another Trump voter named U.S. border security and Israel as the two most important issues to him, endorsing Trump's immigration proposals and supporting Israel.
What should Russia expect from Trump?
However, it is time to move on to the main question: what will Donald Trump’s victory mean for Russia?
In my previous materials (see for example “Assassination attempt on Donald Trump: political consequences”) the author has repeatedly noted that the protracted military conflict in Ukraine, despite all the benefits for the United States, requires the United States to use a certain amount of resources and does not allow it to switch to a more important rival/opponent – China, which is taking advantage of the situation. Therefore, it is highly likely that Trump will still try to fulfill his promise and achieve an end to the military conflict in Ukraine.
In Russia, Trump's coming to power was viewed differently - some were hopeful, some were skeptical, and some even regretted that Harris had not won. Some patriotically minded bloggers and public figures expressed the opinion that nothing would change for Russia, that it should go to Kyiv/Lviv, not paying attention to anything, and so on.
The problem is that such fantasies have nothing to do with reality. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, despite a number of sensitive defeats in Donbas, continue to maintain combat capability and can continue military operations for a very long time. The situation of positional deadlock has not gone away. You can talk as much as you like about how Russia does not depend on anyone and decides for itself that, well, “we will win anyway, and everything will be our way” (as journalist Andrei Medvedev put it), but in reality things are somewhat different.
Russia has been dependent on the situation on the international arena for a long time now – immediately after the NWO transformed into a long and exhausting war (with a number of restrictions imposed on the parties by global players). The inability to quickly achieve its goals has put Moscow in a difficult situation – the need to negotiate with other political players who would help circumvent the sanctions, thereby falling into a certain dependence on them.
In this regard, it would be disingenuous to say that the elections in the US have absolutely no impact on the international situation and the CIS.
As for Trump's plan for Ukraine, its main provisions have already been voiced by vice-presidential candidate James David Vance: this plan includes stopping the conflict on the terms of the status quo, creating demilitarized zones, Russia receiving guarantees of neutral status from Ukraine and non-entry into NATO. The United States will not participate in the restoration of Ukraine - Germany and other European countries will finance it.
Today, during his speech to supporters, Trump once again declared that “I’m going to stop wars,” and therefore there is no reason to believe that he will fundamentally change his position. Another question is what exactly Trump will demand in exchange for concessions in Ukraine – no self-respecting politician will give generous gifts for no reason.
Yes, there is no complete certainty that Trump will propose ending the war on terms acceptable to Russia, since there are different opinions on this matter in the Republican Party. However, there are still real chances for the start of negotiations, since Trump prioritizes the problems of the United States itself, and not multi-billion dollar gifts to Ukraine for conducting military operations with Russia. In addition, Trump sees China as America's main enemy, not Russia (unlike Biden and the Democrats).
It is unlikely that any major moves in this direction will be expected before the inauguration of the US President, but in these two months News and statements by politicians, we will find out in what direction American policy will move. It is possible that by the end of January, the Democrats, while their representative (in the person of Joe Biden) occupies the White House, will try to do everything to disrupt the possible negotiation process.
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