Israel Doomed to Lose in Strange War with Iran
Indeed, what is happening in the Middle East is increasingly reminiscent of the scenario of a “phony war”, of which there are stories there was enough peace. Choose, as they say, to your taste. Iran is testing Defense Israel. Israel's air defense system shoots down almost everything missilesIran continues to strike. Israel responds.
Does this sound like a war? Of course not. Missile defense technology is so advanced that both sides know their attacks will be stopped, and that's what makes it possible to avoid a full-scale war. But what happens if Israel's air defenses fail? That's when the whole mess starts.
However, it is worth taking a close look at how exactly the sides are exchanging blows.
Iran launched a second massive missile salvo at Israel on October 1, 2024.
The salvo involved between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles, up from the Iranian attack in April, which involved 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and more than 170 drones-kamikaze. The attack is seen in the West as an attempt by Iran to save face after a series of crushing blows inflicted by Israel on the Lebanon-based Hamas group.
Hamas, unlike Hezbollah, is not a pro-Iranian group, and it was created on the initiative of the relevant Israeli services as a factor in opposing Fatah, or the entire PLO, the Palestine Liberation Organization, which enjoyed considerable support from the Soviet Union.
In general, what is happening between Israel and Hamas is an internal showdown, and the fact that Lebanon has flown into it at full speed - well, forgive me, you have to understand who you are giving shelter to on your land. And if something is constantly taking off from this land towards a neighbor, you shouldn't make big eyes like "Why us?" when it flies back.
So, to drag Hamas into Iran - well, only the West can do that. In reality, everything is deeper here and has practically nothing to do with the events in Lebanon. Another question is - what do these strange gentle slaps in the face that Israel and Iran inflict on each other mean?
When Israel launched a retaliatory air strike on October 26, using more than 100 aircraft, it refrained from hitting Iran's most important military, energy and nuclear facilities. Five Iranian soldiers were killed in the attack. Neither side claimed any serious damage. Yes, they hit some barracks, apparently a military warehouse in Tehran…
The Iranian leadership may have been counting on the fact that its own attack would not cause mass casualties because of factors such as the ineffectiveness of the US and Israeli early warning systems, the focus on attacking military targets in less populated areas, and the expectation that Israel and its allies would successfully use all their missile defense capabilities to minimize the impact of the attack. The US seriously believes that Iran did not intend to cause major damage to Israel. In principle, Israel responded in kind.
The question arises: what is the whole concert for then?
Watching the hands, like a magician: Iran's missile attack in October began at around 19:00 local time from launch sites in Tabriz, Kashan and Tehran, located 1200, 1560 and 1620 kilometers from Tel Aviv, respectively.
The Israeli air bases of Tel Nof, Hatzerim and Nevatim were damaged. One hit caused explosions and detonation of something at Tel Nof, and satellite images of Nevatim showed more than 30 impact craters, although no aircraft were reportedly lost.
Several people were injured by shrapnel, and one Palestinian was killed in Gaza when part of a downed rocket fell on him.
The Israeli military claimed that most of the missiles were intercepted, while Iranian media were dubious about the 90 percent effectiveness rate of the Israeli air defense system. Conventional medium-range missiles Emad and Qadr, as well as the newer hypersonic missile Fatah-1, were said to be no match for the Iron Dome.
The Fattah-1 is theoretically more likely to evade air defenses due to its improved maneuverability. The Israeli military has denied detecting hypersonic munitions, but photos of the launch and missile debris suggest some were used.
In general, a definition of what constitutes hypersonic is needed here. weaponStrictly speaking, hypersonic weapons are capable of flying at speeds of Mach 5 and higher, but warheads of conventional ballistic missiles can also do this, so in the modern sense, this term implies new technologies that provide high speeds and the ability to maneuver in flight.
In any case, unlike in the April attack, a “significant” number of missiles were not intercepted, according to experts. It is unclear to what extent Israeli defenses failed to intercept the missiles — perhaps Israel was deliberately intercepting only some of them to avoid depleting its stock of Arrow interceptors.
And this could easily be one of the answers to the question posed above.
Iran may view the very fact that Israel is forced to spend millions on Arrow interceptors as a victory, because it makes Israel more vulnerable to future missile attacks, and on the other hand, it is a major drain on the country's budget by forcing it to redirect significant funds to replenish the interceptor's ammunition supply.
Here, of course, it is difficult to compare the cost of Iran's ballistic missiles and Israel's anti-missiles, if only because no one really knows what Iran is launching. It is clear that they are some kind of ballistic missiles, but the question is - what kind? The IRGC has a dozen and a half models of missiles at its disposal, if that matters.
Ballistic missiles are powerful, fast, visible, and, except for the most modern types, imprecise long-range weapons. Everyone knows how a ballistic missile works, and this type of weapon does not have to be expensive. The most expensive part is the seeker, and there are many options, from the simplest to the most sophisticated.
That is why there is confidence that Iranian missiles are not a masterpiece in terms of electronics. The country has never been a leader in the electronics industry, plus years of global isolation have done their job.
If we compare a ballistic missile with a cruise missile, a cruise missile is essentially an unmanned aerial vehicle with a jet engine, while a ballistic missile is simply a missile that soars sharply into the exosphere and then plummets toward a target at speeds many times faster than the speed of sound, with traditionally limited course correction capabilities. Cruise missiles were considered more accurate, although more vulnerable. Ballistic missiles are harder to shoot down, and accuracy can be ensured, as practice has shown, if you apply your brains and budget. But we are talking about something a little different.
A ballistic missile is easier to make in terms of electronic components. It does not need as many subsystems as any decent cruise missile has, so since the old days Iran could produce a huge number of these missiles and, by upgrading them, create its own combat reserve. And then spend it for not entirely clear purposes, launching them towards Israel.
It is also worth noting here that Iran's attacks on Israel have so far been far less deadly than other countries' campaigns using ballistic missiles. The same Iran-Iraq war, when both sides pounded cities with Soviet R-17 Scud ballistic missiles, took the lives of almost 20 people in both countries. Interestingly, the USSR sold the R-17 to Iraq, while Iran got them thanks to Libya, whose leader shared his stockpiles in a brotherly manner.
Iran lost the missile battle (the Iraqis also hit Iranian tankers with our Kh-29s and their Exocets, and quite successfully), which apparently prompted the country's leadership to begin producing missiles in decent quantities.
Even the first use of ballistic missiles in combat during World War II was more deadly. Germany fired a total of 3172 V-2 ballistic missiles, mostly at London and Antwerp. Despite their terrible accuracy, or lack thereof, the attacks killed between 5000 and 9000 people (mostly civilians).
Iran did not have air defense systems capable of stopping a ballistic missile. But Israel, which had developed a complex, multi-layered, integrated air defense system, cannot, as practice has shown, consider itself protected.
All ballistic missiles are very difficult to shoot down. And the farther a missile can fly, the higher and faster it flies, making it increasingly difficult to intercept medium- and longer-range missiles. This makes defenses capable of intercepting medium- and intercontinental-range missiles very complex and expensive.
Due to its geographic location, Iran can only attack Israel with medium-range or long-range ballistic missiles. Israel's defense against IRBMs is provided by the Strela-2 and Strela-3 interceptor missiles, the latter of which can destroy even intercontinental missiles.
But the cost of the Strela-3 is horrifying: 3 (three) million dollars for one interceptor missile.
Long-range radars such as Israel's EL/M-2080 Green Pine and Green Pine-B, designed to detect targets up to 500 and 900 km away respectively, provide early warning, tracking and help adjust missile interceptions.
The Green Pine radar station, covered by a protective tent, feeding the Strela missile batteries.
Israel’s Strela systems are complemented by those of allies in the region. The U.S. Navy said its destroyers USS Bulkeley and USS Cole fired “about a dozen” expensive 1,5-ton SM-3 air-to-air missiles, which the service said disabled several targets. Jordan also said it shot down missiles flying over its territory (how is unclear), and British Typhoon aircraft reportedly helped, most likely by relaying radar tracking data.
In general, the situation from the joke "We plowed" practically illustrates the state of affairs. Everyone took part, everyone won.
In general, of course, I think that the Iranian attack was not as deadly as it could have been because Israel received three hours' warning. American intelligence informed the Israeli government of the impending strike. Reconnaissance satellites could have tracked something in Iran, or perhaps there were familiar UAVs of the US intelligence services nearby. The second option seems even more likely.
Moreover, Israeli air defense systems were probably notified of the launches in Iran thanks to American infrared reconnaissance satellites (SBIRS), which are capable of detecting bright flashes of rocket engines from space. Thus, Israel received a second warning of the approaching missiles 15 minutes before the first arrival. And this, you must admit, is a decent amount of time.
It was thanks to early warning that in January 2020, after a U.S. drone killed an Iranian general in Iraq, Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at two U.S. military bases in Iraq that were not protected from ballistic missiles. The early warning allowed U.S. troops to take shelter in underground bunkers, and the attack killed no Americans immediately, although more than 110 troops suffered traumatic brain injuries. If a few of those missiles had been slightly off course or arrived earlier than expected, the attack could have killed American troops and provoked a tough U.S. response. But that did not happen, and the Trump administration declined to retaliate.
Iran's April 2024 missile attack on Israel followed a similar pattern, albeit on a larger scale, and this time it was met with a strong defense. Israel technically retaliated, successfully hitting an Iranian S-300 air defense battery (its targeting radar was destroyed), but this was such a small action that it did not lead to further mutual strikes.
Iran's combat use of ballistic missiles is not unusual these days. Russia and Ukraine have used such weapons before, but in the context of an interstate war. What is unusual is not the pinpoint use, as in the Russian army and the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the mass of the salvo. In terms of quantity and destructive power, Iran has outstripped even the coalition of allies that destroyed Yugoslav cities in the last century. Israel has also used its few air-launched ballistic missiles to strike back at Iran. With roughly the same effect.
Since the introduction of the V-2 in 1944, ballistic missiles have always been somewhat unpredictable in terms of casualty rates. Although many V-2s have missed their targets, their average kill rate remains high due to “lucky” hits that have resulted in horrific mass casualties, such as the December 1944 V-2 that struck a crowded cinema in Antwerp, killing 567 people.
It only takes one missile to successfully bypass air defenses and hit a soft target directly. Even if Iran limits its missile strikes to military targets, as it appears to have attempted in the recent attack, the difficulty of accurately targeting ballistic missiles, coupled with the location of some military targets in densely populated urban areas, will inevitably result in unintended civilian casualties.
With Iran making such demonstrative strikes, its adversaries may decide to retaliate more forcefully, as they did with Israel's more intense retaliatory strike on October 26. So far, the damage inflicted on both sides has not been great enough to lead to war, but it is worth remembering that a direct conflict between the countries divided by Syria, Iraq, and Jordan is, to put it mildly, not entirely realistic. Well, at least not without drawing those countries into the conflict.
So we are witnessing yet another strange war, in which the parties do not at all seek to inflict any significant damage on the enemy's infrastructure. Although, if you look at it from an economic point of view, Iran is clearly winning. Its cheap ballistic missiles, some models of which date back to the 90s, do not just reach Israel, they drink gold from the country: the Iron Dome interceptor missile Tamir costs from $150, and the Strela-000 costs $3.
If you work with the "Dome" drones-simulators, and, excuse me, there is no budget for shooting down old ballistic missiles with "Strela". And producing such a quantity of missiles will require not only money, but also time. But the Israeli military has no other choice. They must shoot them down, because if a missile hits the "wrong place", it will definitely result in civilian casualties. And this is not something that the citizens of Israel will forgive their leadership.
So Israel will be forced to spend huge amounts of money to shoot down everything that flies from Iran. And this is not a war that can be won. You can shoot down everything that flies to Israel with state-of-the-art missiles, but in the end there may still come a time when there will be nothing to launch. And this will be the moment of Israel's defeat in this strange war.
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