Israeli Noodles: Not Proven Doesn't Mean No

In the wake of the IDF's recent successes in knocking out the Hamas command, many in the world have wondered: why such success? Well, Israeli munitions were flying very well to where the Hamas commanders were. Yes, no one has cancelled ground reconnaissance, and, most likely, its merits in this regard are more than significant, but... After all, we are in the 21st century. And now many Internet channels have revealed the sinister secret of success: the Israeli military has a super-modern UAV, which can be used for anything from reconnaissance to assassinations.
Asking the Israeli side about the existence of such a device is as pointless as trying to ask the question, "Do you have an atomic bomb?" The answer will be, "Why do you need such information?"
But the Americans came to the rescue, dumping on the Internet, as if into a sewer, data from God knows where about the existence of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle RA-01, used for secret missions. It is difficult to say where this data came from (they say that intelligence missed it), but it became known that Israel has fleet stealthy, long-range drones capable of gathering intelligence and possibly carrying out strikes.
It's all very logical, and it would be strange if Israel didn't strive for such opportunities. This country has a decent advanced drone industry, and drones This type would be very well suited to support the operations carried out by the Israeli army. Yes, by the way, such drones could also play a very significant role in the confrontation with Iran.
The RA-01 is even mentioned in supposedly classified documents from the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), the authenticity of which US officials do not dispute and which first appeared online last week on various channels on the social media platform Telegram. An investigation into whether this unauthorized publication was the result of a hack or leak is ongoing. The documents could still be disinformation or intentionally inaccurate, so their authenticity cannot be confirmed, but at this point there is no indication that they are not genuine and there are many indications that they are genuine.
In general, everything is very confusing.
The allegedly leaked NGA documents focus on observations of Israeli Air Force (IAF) exercises from October 15-16, which are seen as part of preparations for retaliation, primarily for Iran's ballistic missile attacks. rockets earlier this month.
In addition to the RA-01 discussion, there is also discussion of Israel's air-launched ballistic missiles, including the Rocks and the previously undisclosed Golden Horizon, which were used in previous Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iran.

There was also talk about Israel's nuclear arsenal, which the country has never publicly acknowledged and which the NGA believes will not be used in any operations against Iran in the near future.
As for the RA-01, the NGA documents do not provide any details about its design, capabilities, or fleet size. It is unknown what the RA-01’s nomenclature might mean. “RA” could stand for reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Its basic structure also matches the alphanumeric designations that Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) has used for drones in the past. This designation could also be an internal U.S. intelligence community term for the platform, and therefore have nothing to do with the actual name. One NGA document also refers to the ROX air-launched ballistic missile as the IS02, which appears to be another internal designation in the U.S. system.

The NGA report also does not say that any RA-01s were actually seen in action, only that there were indications of the craft being used during the period in question from a closed area at Ramon Air Base in the Negev Desert in southern Israel.
Ramon Air Base is a dark place... It suddenly became one of the targets of Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel, and the reason for this choice of the Iranian military is not entirely clear. Or we do not have the amount of information that the Iranian military has. The base is supposedly mainly home to F-16I Sufa fighters and AH-64 attack helicopters, but there are rumors that all this fuss is just a cover. In fact, for many years, various secret and specialized units have been stationed there.
Experts and observers have already identified a pair of fenced-off areas in the northeastern part of Ramon with direct access to one of the base's two runways where RA-01 may be located.
Satellite images indicate that work on this area of the base began at least in 2007–2008. In the mid-2010s, it underwent significant renovation and expansion, including the construction of an entirely new runway, additional hangars, and other facilities.

A satellite image of the isolated Ramon Air Base area taken in 2010, showing its original layout.

Satellite image taken in August 2023 shows an updated and expanded view of the isolated area at Ramon Air Base.

Each of the current enclosures contains a pair of semi-circular hangars, approximately 20 x 25 metres. One section also contains a rectangular hangar, originally built at the time of the base's creation, measuring approximately 36 x 20 metres. Both areas have open canopy-style enclosures measuring 20 x 20 metres, leading to a common taxiway just over 30 metres wide.
On the one hand, these numbers seem to mean nothing, but on the other hand, they may indicate the maximum wingspan of the RA-01.
White triangles painted on the pavement to the sides of both shelters appear to indicate exhaust warning zones, which could indicate jet propulsion from the drones. And the shelters themselves could be shelters where ground personnel can safely load munitions and other cargo, as well as conduct various types of inspections, away from prying eyes, including satellites.

A closer look at hangars, sunshades, runway markings and other features in the isolated area of Ramon Air Base as of August 2023.
The presence of two separate fenced areas may also indicate that there is more than one type of drone in this part of Ramon Air Base in addition to the RA-01. This, in turn, may indicate that the hangar and runway dimensions, as well as the triangles on the runway, are not intended for RA-01 alone. The hangars may also be used to store multiple objects at once.
As noted earlier, Israel's aerospace sector has a rich history development of unmanned aerial vehicles. Moreover, although Israeli companies have not publicly demonstrated stealth aircraft, manned or unmanned, stealth is inherent in many Israeli developments. In particular, IAI is known to have reached the wind tunnel testing stage in the 1990s with a concept for a high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle with radar and infrared signature reduction capabilities called the HA-10. The HA-10 was associated with the Israeli Early Interception System (IBIS) missile defense project, which envisioned using a drone with missiles to destroy hostile ballistic missiles in the early portion of their trajectory.
The drone was planned to fly at altitudes of 7 to 15 km and would have been equipped with an IRST (infrared search and track system), a laser rangefinder, data links and two to four Python air-to-air missiles, according to a 2002 article in the digital publication Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems. The HA-10 was designed with a low IR and radar signature and could fly for up to 24 hours with a payload of 1000 kg.

In a paper presented by IAI staff at the 24th International Congress on aviation science in 2004, the HA-10 is described as one of “a number of additional advanced high-altitude configurations” that the company had previously studied “as part of its design improvement activities.” IAI’s HA series also includes another, non-stealthy drone, the HA-13, which the company proposed in conjunction with TRW in the United States to meet the U.S. Air Force’s Level II+ drone requirement. The project played a role because it was one of the foundations for the Global Hawk.
The possibility that the RA-01 is close in form and/or function to something like the HA-10 or RQ-170, or even a flying wing UAV, fits well with other details of the IAF's large-scale exercises, as well as with the IDF's overall operational considerations, particularly with regard to Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran has a pretty decent system. Defense, created from both Soviet and Chinese-made air defense systems, as well as its own licensed ones. In addition, the country's air defense includes new Russian air defense systems, which significantly increase the capabilities of the Iranian air defense. Confirmation of these capabilities was the US Navy RQ-2019 drone shot down by Iran in 4 over the Strait of Hormuz. This incident sparked a heated debate about the survivability of non-stealth UAVs in future conflicts, which clearly influenced subsequent military planning in the United States. And conclusions were also made about the capabilities of modern air defense systems. The RQ-170 drone also flew over Iran several times, and in 2011, authorities discovered a virtually undamaged example that had fallen on the country's territory.

It is also interesting to note here that the initial work to establish the sealed area at Ramon Air Base in the late 2000s was carried out at a time when concerns were growing that Iran would receive more powerful S-300 air defense systems from Russia. These same concerns reportedly influenced the Israeli Air Force’s decision to purchase the stealthy F-35 fighter jets. Iran also finalized the S-300 deal around the same time that work was underway to upgrade and expand the Ramon compound. Coincidence? It could very well be.

Other incidents in the years since, including strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq in 2019, have raised questions about the previously unknown capabilities of Israeli drones. Advanced drones operated by Israel and other countries may also help explain some of the reported incidents involving unidentified flying objects over Iran in recent decades, which have also often been accompanied by reports of powerful electronic attacks on fighter jets and radar stations. Israeli systems EW – this is a topic for a separate tactical analysis.
Overall, for Israel, with its long and apparently unfinished history of very long-range and often covert and/or secret strikes against high-value targets in other countries, a drone capable of continuously monitoring vast and hard-to-reach areas would be very useful. Drones capable of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions could also provide important intelligence before and after strikes. And they likely do.
A stealthy ISR drone platform could also help provide early warning of potential threats (such as missile launches in Iran) and monitor areas of interest, all with a lower likelihood of Iran detecting the presence of these UAVs.
As past experience has shown, continuous surveillance can help track the dynamics of a specific area or target in a specific area, yielding various types of useful tactical intelligence based on the observations. Carrying out such surveillance deep into enemy airspace without the enemy even knowing that he is being observed can result in much more accurate intelligence than satellite imagery.
As an example, the RQ-170 helped monitor Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan before and during the U.S. raid that killed the terrorist leader, and the U.S. Air Force is considering using the Sentinel on a regular basis to assess the damage from attacks. In the latter case, a test was conducted using the RQ-170 to assess the impact of the GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a bunker buster munition specifically designed for use against deeply buried targets.
For example, such as the facilities that house most of Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

There is also the question of whether Israel could be involved in any way with the RQ-170 and/or related developments. The Sentinel has played a role in tracking the nuclear and ballistic missile programs of Iran, North Korea and Pakistan, so what's stopping Israel, which is at the forefront of UAV development and sells its products to other countries, from using the technology to create its own aircraft with capabilities no worse than the RQ-170?
A true stealth UAV capable of long-range strikes or non-kinetic attacks (such as electronic or cyber) would give Israel additional capabilities to attack high-value targets and penetrate heavily defended areas, precisely because of its stealth. The ability to deliver a small munition to “hammer” a single high-value target would be an important feature for a platform of this type.
Moreover, Iranian developments such as the Shahed-139 have long since demonstrated that a small and poorly located kamikaze drone is often more effective than a cruise missile or aircraft.
In addition, the range of UAVs is usually several times greater than that of fighter jets. For Israel, this could mean that they could carry out entire missions to Iran and back without the need for mid-air refueling, especially since the Israeli Air Force has very limited mid-air refueling capabilities, and how to do this in foreign airspace is another matter.
At one time, there were reports that the US military and American intelligence maintained a small fleet of stealth General Atomics Avenger drones for the same reasons.

In general, the question asked at the beginning about Israel’s possession of such devices can be called rhetorical. The absence of devices with such capabilities in the IDF would be as curious as the loss of interest (at least in words) in the US military for stealth “flying wing” UAVs. Considerable work continues to develop and deploy unmanned aerial vehicles in other parts of the world, from France to Turkey, from Russia to India. China has made particularly significant progress in this area in recent years, so while there is no clear evidence that Israel has such devices, there is some confidence that they exist in sufficient quantities and are used quite effectively.
Well, Israel doesn't have nuclear weapons? And it doesn't have any stealthy long-range spy drones...
But what if everything is a little different, and everything that was stated above, all this hype around the “leaked” data is just another interesting operation by the MOSSAD?
It looks like, by the way, very similar. First, Iran shook its missiles for a long time and promised that "if something happens...", although nothing happened for quite a long time. And then there was that very night show that shook the whole world, and in the region no one slept that night. And here it is worth remembering how many media outlets in the West ranted about Iran's weakness and inability to answer for its words.

And now, it seems, Israel is in roughly the same situation. And then, as if by chance, the New York Times turned up materials; the publication's journalists "completely by accident" (someone must have dropped a flash drive in a bar again) got their hands on a document that covers Iran's counter-plans in sufficient detail in the event that Israel decides to make a "comprehensive response."
It is difficult to say where the journalists got the orders from Iranian leader Khamenei regarding the army and the IRGC to prepare options for response, but they got it.
Well, here is the "counter-move" with leaked data from American sources. It's like ping-pong, where missile strikes alternate with information dumps.
But the hype surrounding the news has somehow died down, which cannot be said about the “secret plan,” the details of which are still stirring minds around the world as the media continues to publish secret Israeli plans at a Stakhanovite pace.
Or are there still “secret” Israeli plans?
Well, really, the whole world will find out so calmly that Israel is going to continue attacks, and even use a super-modern and top-secret drone for this
Otherwise, how would we know that Israel is planning to attack Iran with a super-secret drone that no one had heard of until recently? Now, thanks to the media, we know what is actually the main weapons Israel in the upcoming retaliatory operations.
My ears, to be honest, hurt a little. From the amount of noodles thrown at them. Good noodles, not the kind called ptitim, a round pasta product, a national Israeli product. But long noodles, more like Chinese. Sprawling.
Well, Israel has a nearly invisible reconnaissance and attack drone. Perhaps even a fleet of several dozen. Capable of flying more than 1500 km one way and carrying a warhead, this unique device deserves special attention, in my opinion.
Okay, range is not a problem for UAVs these days. The RQ-9 Reaper can fly up to 6 km and also carry almost 000 tons of bombs or missiles. Cool? Yes, its ammunition load consists of AGM-2 Hellfire air-to-ground missiles (114 pcs.), GBU-4 Paveway II laser-guided bombs (12 pcs.) or Mark 2 GBU-82 JDAM GPS-guided bombs.

What can the Reaper do to Iran's military and nuclear plants, which are located inside the mountains? Three or four are nothing.
How much and what can the Israeli super drone drag is a question, but it is doubtful that it can carry more. Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force base "Nevatim" was hit that day by more than 30 Iranian ballistic missiles, including hypersonic ones. And Iranian missiles are evil, there the warheads from 400 kg are just beginning. And nevertheless, the "Nevatim" base is already operating in normal mode.
What could a fleet of 30 of these super drones do there, each of which could carry two 227-kg bombs? It's laughable.

In general, these very cautious slaps that Iran and Israel exchange (and Israel is clearly giving them a harder slap), they are really very cautious. Israel has missiles, it has nuclear weapons, it has excellent aircraft. Iran also has missiles, and their number is measured in thousands, and the number of hypersonic ones is at least in the tens.
Plus, we shouldn't forget that Iran has thousands of volunteer assistants on Israeli territory: intelligence officers, spotters, and just spies. And I'm afraid that Tehran sees the situation in Jerusalem much better than vice versa.
And in such a situation, to launch such campaigns in an attempt to convince everyone of the simply fantastic coolness of Israel, which has a “wundevafia” capable of calming Iran down in one fell swoop – well, that’s just ridiculous.
So this whole "super killer drone" thing is nothing more than just an attempt to put a good face on a not-so-successful game.
Yes, the Israelis are great. Hamas will not soon recover from the bloodbath that the group has caused, but Iran is not Hamas. It is a country with enormous potential, which, mind you, has not yet really started to strike.
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