Missiles and planes: Israel prepares to strike Iran

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Missiles and planes: Israel prepares to strike Iran
IDF F-15I fighter-bomber. Photo by Israel Defense Ministry


On October 1, Iran carried out a massive attack on Israeli targets. In response, Israel immediately announced its intention to retaliate and began active preparations for it. These preparations are still ongoing, and the exact date of the attack remains unknown. However, some documents have recently become publicly available that shed light on Israel's plans.



A tough response


On the evening of October 1, Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory. This move was a response to the assassination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas organizations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked military targets in Israel, firing at least 180 rockets of various types. Most of them hit their targets.

Almost immediately after the missiles fell, the Israeli leadership promised to strike back. There were decisive and bold statements about the readiness to defend its interests and confront its enemies. However, for obvious reasons, the details of the upcoming attack were not disclosed.

Since then, Israeli officials have repeatedly reiterated their plans to retaliate against Iran. The rhetoric has been confident and threatening. However, these statements have been made for three weeks now, and there has been no actual attack.


Israeli F-16I with guided bomb armament. Photo by the Israeli Defense Ministry

The strike on Iran is being postponed, and the exact reasons for this remain unknown. It can be assumed that the issue is the overall nature of such an operation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) may simply not be ready to carry out such a strike immediately. If so, the IDF is currently stockpiling forces and resources, and refining its plans. How long this will continue is a big question.

Recently, Israeli media offered another explanation for the observed delays. According to them, the Israeli government has still not given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant the authority to make a decision on the attack. The press and its sources do not report how soon the cabinet will decide on this issue.

Another reason for the constant postponements or actual refusal to strike may be the reluctance to escalate and its negative consequences. In early October, Iranian officials warned that the Israeli strike would be followed by retaliation. This time, Tehran is promising a strike of a scale that the enemy does not expect.

In preparation


Israel promised to strike Iran three weeks ago, but it has not happened yet. However, the attack plans have not been abandoned. Moreover, it has recently become known that the IDF is actively preparing to implement them. Some details of this process have recently become known.


F-16I fighter with ROCKS missile. Photo by Rafael

A few days ago, the Middle East Spectator Telegram channel, allegedly linked to Iran, published some interesting documents. These documents were allegedly stolen from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency of the United States. They are dated October 15 and 16.

According to these documents, no later than October 8, the IDF did indeed begin preparations for a strike on Iran. Preparations are underway at the Ramat David and Ramon air force bases. It is not yet known which squadrons and units are involved in this process.

More than fifty air-to-ground guided missiles of two types have been allocated for deployment and combat use. Among them are the already known munition called ROCKS, as well as a completely new one called Golden Horizon. These missiles are being prepared for combat use from existing air platforms. Other types of weapons may also be deployed.

On October 15, the Israeli Air Force conducted a major exercise using combat and support equipment aviation, as well as modern missile weapons. Several combat aircraft, an AWACS aircraft, and three air tankers participated in the air maneuvers. These forces and means worked out a flight to a remote launch line with refueling in the air, the use of missiles based on data from the control aircraft, and the search and rescue of victims.


The F-35I is the newest fighter jet in the IAF fleet. Photo: Israel Defense Ministry

It can be assumed that these were not routine planned exercises, but a full-fledged rehearsal of a future strike on Iran. Their goal was probably to test the previously drawn up plan and identify its weak points. Now the IDF Air Force will have to analyze the events carried out and draw conclusions. Perhaps, based on the results of the exercises, the plan will be adjusted.

Impact potential


Information about the Israeli Air Force exercises and assumptions about a possible connection with the expected strike allow us to imagine how exactly and by what means Israel intends to attack Iranian facilities. It is also possible to preliminarily estimate the probability of success and the possible consequences of such an attack.

Apparently, Israel is planning a series of air strikes. This operation will involve aircraft of all or almost all types in service with the IDF Air Force. These will be F-15, F-16 or F-35 fighter-bombers in Israeli modifications. All of them are capable of carrying several different types of missiles and have sufficient combat radius to hit targets on Iranian territory.

For example, since the mid-nineties, the IDF Air Force has been using an air-to-surface missile called Delilah. It is a subsonic cruise missile with a range of 250 km. With its own weight of 187 kg, it carries a high-explosive warhead weighing 30 kg. Guidance is carried out using a combined method, using navigation devices and an infrared head.

A few years ago, the Air Force received a new air-to-surface missile called ROCKS. It is a solid-fuel munition capable of supersonic speeds and a range of up to 300 km. The combined control system with a full-fledged seeker provides high navigation and guidance accuracy. Various warhead options are available, including a concrete-piercing one capable of hitting buried targets.


Aeroballistic version of the LORA operational-tactical missile. Photo Wikimedia Commons

According to some reports, the IDF Air Force adopted the LORA aeroballistic missile at the beginning of the current decade. In essence, this is a munition of the eponymous operational-tactical missile system, modified for use from aircraft. LORA is 5,2 m long and weighs 1,6 tons, including a 570 kg warhead. The developers claim that the missile is capable of covering a distance of up to 400-430 km.

Organizationally, the Air Force includes missile units armed with ground-based missile systems of the Jericho family. According to known data, the IDF currently has Jericho-2 and Jericho-3 missiles in service. The Jericho-2 missile belongs to the medium-range class of weapons, and the Jericho-3 is intercontinental.

Attack and risks


In theory, the Israeli Air Force could launch a massive air strike against Iranian targets. To do so, several squadrons would have to fly to designated launch sites and use missiles. Depending on the exact attack plan, it would be possible to hit a large number of targets across virtually all of Iran.

However, this plan has its drawbacks. First of all, it is the difficulty of laying out the routes. Since Israel and Iran do not have a common border, the IDF Air Force will have to fly over the territory of third countries. At the same time, the shortest and most optimal route is effectively blocked by unfriendly Syria.

Much depends on the choice of targets. If Israel decides to attack targets in eastern Iran, its aircraft may have to enter enemy airspace. In that case, they will fall into the Iranian zone of responsibility. Defense and will be exposed to great risk. The missiles they launch may also become a target for the SAM system.


Launch of the Jericho-2 medium-range ballistic missile. Photo Wikimedia Commons

The use of ballistic missiles of the Jericho family allows one to avoid all the difficulties and risks associated with flying over foreign territory and entering air defense zones. However, such a choice of means of destruction will significantly limit the scale of the strike. According to various sources, no more than 20-25 such missiles are on duty. It is unlikely that the IDF will be able to urgently prepare and deploy a larger number of Jerichos.

There is another serious risk. Israel has been hinting at having nuclear weapons for decades. weapons. The supposed carriers of special warheads are the IRBMs and the Jericho series ICBMs. Any combat launch of such a product would attract unnecessary attention and could cause an undesirable reaction. For example, Iran, expecting a nuclear strike, could launch a full-scale retaliatory attack on an expanded range of targets. As it became known on October 1, the IDF will not be able to protect its country from such a threat.

In a difficult situation


The situation in the Middle East remains tense. Israel is planning to strike Iran, but has not yet fulfilled this promise. In response, Iran threatens a full-scale retaliatory action to any attack. Who will strike first and what consequences this will entail is anyone's guess.

It is important to note that both sides do have the ability to carry out a massive attack on enemy targets with some consequences. However, any such strike will only aggravate the situation and lead to a mutual exchange of strikes. More serious scenarios with a transition to full-scale combat operations cannot be ruled out. Whether this crisis can be resolved without a direct clash will become clear in the near future.
23 comments
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  1. +2
    23 October 2024 04: 48
    In order to strike Iran, Israeli aircraft would have to cross the borders of Syria, Jordan, Iraq and possibly Saudi Arabia. How would the Arabs react?
    1. +5
      23 October 2024 04: 59
      Most likely nothing, they'll make some noise and then calm down.
      1. +2
        23 October 2024 05: 05
        Quote: Russian Bear_2
        make some noise and calm down
        This is probably true if we remember that they shot down Iranian missiles and drones over their territory.
        1. +4
          23 October 2024 17: 31
          In fact, just the other day, these very countries unanimously declared that they would not provide their skies for Israeli aircraft to fly over. And who knows, maybe this time they will shoot down uninvited guests from Israel. In any case, they definitely do not want a war with Iran, and Iran has already warned that it will consider Israeli aircraft flying over these countries as an act of war against these countries. So everything is still complicated for both Israel and the countries through which they will have to fly.
        2. 0
          23 October 2024 20: 58
          Now they will shoot down Israeli missiles.
          What a workout! laughing
      2. -1
        23 October 2024 20: 42
        It's unlikely that anything will happen. The Persians and Saudis want to organize joint naval exercises here.
    2. 0
      23 October 2024 16: 22
      Dudo que decidan sobrevolar Siria porque ese país si tiene con que derribarlos y la voluntad para hacerlo.
      1. -2
        23 October 2024 19: 36
        It is unlikely that Israel will strike before the US elections. The strike could cause oil prices to jump and eventually gasoline prices, which for Biden would be like a sickle on a faberge and a loss in the elections to his beloved Flounder! But after the elections, they could pounce on Iran with joint efforts! After all, the lover of spoiling the air and mood of crowned heads will be handing over power only in January, so he will be able to have fun without looking back at the swindlers!
  2. +3
    23 October 2024 06: 18
    Quote: Dutchman Michel
    In order to strike Iran, Israeli aircraft would have to cross the borders of Syria, Jordan, Iraq and possibly Saudi Arabia. How would the Arabs react?

    They reacted in the same way as before.
  3. 0
    23 October 2024 07: 08
    Most of them achieved their goals... but no proof other than words...
  4. +1
    23 October 2024 08: 13
    The exchange of blows between Iran and Israel resembles a sports tournament more than a war. No decisive goals are set, the reason for the blows is one - not to lose face.

    In fact, these attacks only hinder both sides, but they cannot stop them. Whoever blinks first loses.
  5. +2
    23 October 2024 08: 58
    Without direct participation of the Americans, it's a futile undertaking. The Israeli braggarts won't have enough strength.
    But the hegemon is not burning with desire to get involved in this “murky” story / the alleged “accidental leak” of Israel’s secret plans once again confirms this/.
    We have been hearing about Israeli "red lines" and threats to "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age" periodically since 2011-12. Let's see how it goes now, most likely the strike will be combined, cyber attacks, sabotage, terrorist attacks need to be coordinated with the air operation, that's why they are delaying.
  6. -1
    23 October 2024 10: 08
    Iran has minimally responded to Israel. Minimal damage. Israel is starting to resemble 404 in its desire to ignite conflict. And it should be noted that Israel always attacks, and Iran responds.
    Israel will not be able to physically destroy Iran's MRBM launchers with one, two or three strikes...this requires long and thoughtful work by bombers over Iran with bunker busters. This can only be physically done by US aviation (and this must be preceded by long preparatory work).
    Accordingly, there will be many ready for launch and the number of IRBMs that will fly will be very large.
    And the pictures will be the same.
  7. +1
    23 October 2024 11: 41
    Americans don't need any more problems before the elections. And they will be there automatically if Israel strikes Iran, the Americans don't need Iran's response. And considering that Israel doesn't have that many refueling tanks, the strike on Iran can be postponed until the elections in America.
    1. 2al
      -1
      23 October 2024 14: 44
      There are already 2 THAAD batteries deployed in Israel. It is highly likely that they will bring in the same number more. In the event of a successful Israeli attack, this could be enough to reduce the Iranian strike to acceptable losses.
      1. 0
        23 October 2024 16: 24
        Quote: 2al
        If Israel were to successfully attack, this could be enough to reduce Iran's attack to acceptable losses.

        It is not known exactly what Iran has. It may be enough, or it may not be enough for 300-400 Geraniums THAAD. This is an example.
        1. 2al
          +1
          24 October 2024 09: 19
          THAAD is a missile defense system, it will definitely not be used against UAVs. 4 batteries are about 190 missiles in a salvo (but this depends on how many launchers the US has actually deployed in Israel), in fact, this is the maximum that Iran can issue in one salvo. THAAD will have a problem with intercepting the Fattah-1/2; it intercepts all other Iranian missiles with a good probability.
      2. -1
        23 October 2024 20: 57
        depending on WHAT losses can be considered "acceptable"..as is known, Jews are very sensitive to civilian losses (there are no parallels here...that's different) and so they are burning_a year has passed and the fate of the remaining hostages...is vague..and if to this is added the mass death of civilians then...perhaps the Jews will fork out for TNW (by the way, for them the question is $$$ and not the lives of Persians_is it worth spending an expensive BG or will strikes with regular JADMs be enough)..
  8. 0
    23 October 2024 21: 29
    Most likely there will be no strikes until November 5. But when the elections are held, everything from the scenarios described in the article or something else may happen.
    1. +1
      28 October 2024 17: 35
      Israel responded earlier. Three waves of fighter-bombers exposed and destroyed four S3 and S4 air defense systems, a solid rocket fuel and rocket engine plant, apparently a drone plant, and a nuclear weapons component plant. Israel, at the request of the United States, did not strike oil and gas production and processing facilities.
      1. +1
        28 October 2024 18: 06
        This only shows the value of our ordinary forecasts. Without information, one can only forecast on the coffee grounds request
        1. 0
          28 October 2024 22: 21
          Quote: pudelartemon
          This only shows the value of our ordinary forecasts.

          It is always useful to try to predict the consequences of your actions or the actions of politicians who may influence your fate. Very often, those who consider themselves experts give more stupid conclusions than people who consider themselves simple.
  9. 0
    29 October 2024 08: 32
    Quote: gsev
    Israel responded earlier. Three waves of fighter-bombers exposed and destroyed four S3 and S4 air defense systems, a solid rocket fuel and rocket engine plant, apparently a drone plant, and a nuclear weapons component plant. Israel, at the request of the United States, did not strike oil and gas production and processing facilities.

    Well, according to Iranian statements, during the strike they also destroyed an entire regiment of invisible fighters.
    In short, they came to an agreement, each side declared that it had achieved all its goals, but no one really knows how it really is.