Missiles and planes: Israel prepares to strike Iran
IDF F-15I fighter-bomber. Photo by Israel Defense Ministry
On October 1, Iran carried out a massive attack on Israeli targets. In response, Israel immediately announced its intention to retaliate and began active preparations for it. These preparations are still ongoing, and the exact date of the attack remains unknown. However, some documents have recently become publicly available that shed light on Israel's plans.
A tough response
On the evening of October 1, Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory. This move was a response to the assassination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas organizations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked military targets in Israel, firing at least 180 rockets of various types. Most of them hit their targets.
Almost immediately after the missiles fell, the Israeli leadership promised to strike back. There were decisive and bold statements about the readiness to defend its interests and confront its enemies. However, for obvious reasons, the details of the upcoming attack were not disclosed.
Since then, Israeli officials have repeatedly reiterated their plans to retaliate against Iran. The rhetoric has been confident and threatening. However, these statements have been made for three weeks now, and there has been no actual attack.
Israeli F-16I with guided bomb armament. Photo by the Israeli Defense Ministry
The strike on Iran is being postponed, and the exact reasons for this remain unknown. It can be assumed that the issue is the overall nature of such an operation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) may simply not be ready to carry out such a strike immediately. If so, the IDF is currently stockpiling forces and resources, and refining its plans. How long this will continue is a big question.
Recently, Israeli media offered another explanation for the observed delays. According to them, the Israeli government has still not given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant the authority to make a decision on the attack. The press and its sources do not report how soon the cabinet will decide on this issue.
Another reason for the constant postponements or actual refusal to strike may be the reluctance to escalate and its negative consequences. In early October, Iranian officials warned that the Israeli strike would be followed by retaliation. This time, Tehran is promising a strike of a scale that the enemy does not expect.
In preparation
Israel promised to strike Iran three weeks ago, but it has not happened yet. However, the attack plans have not been abandoned. Moreover, it has recently become known that the IDF is actively preparing to implement them. Some details of this process have recently become known.
F-16I fighter with ROCKS missile. Photo by Rafael
A few days ago, the Middle East Spectator Telegram channel, allegedly linked to Iran, published some interesting documents. These documents were allegedly stolen from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency of the United States. They are dated October 15 and 16.
According to these documents, no later than October 8, the IDF did indeed begin preparations for a strike on Iran. Preparations are underway at the Ramat David and Ramon air force bases. It is not yet known which squadrons and units are involved in this process.
More than fifty air-to-ground guided missiles of two types have been allocated for deployment and combat use. Among them are the already known munition called ROCKS, as well as a completely new one called Golden Horizon. These missiles are being prepared for combat use from existing air platforms. Other types of weapons may also be deployed.
On October 15, the Israeli Air Force conducted a major exercise using combat and support equipment aviation, as well as modern missile weapons. Several combat aircraft, an AWACS aircraft, and three air tankers participated in the air maneuvers. These forces and means worked out a flight to a remote launch line with refueling in the air, the use of missiles based on data from the control aircraft, and the search and rescue of victims.
The F-35I is the newest fighter jet in the IAF fleet. Photo: Israel Defense Ministry
It can be assumed that these were not routine planned exercises, but a full-fledged rehearsal of a future strike on Iran. Their goal was probably to test the previously drawn up plan and identify its weak points. Now the IDF Air Force will have to analyze the events carried out and draw conclusions. Perhaps, based on the results of the exercises, the plan will be adjusted.
Impact potential
Information about the Israeli Air Force exercises and assumptions about a possible connection with the expected strike allow us to imagine how exactly and by what means Israel intends to attack Iranian facilities. It is also possible to preliminarily estimate the probability of success and the possible consequences of such an attack.
Apparently, Israel is planning a series of air strikes. This operation will involve aircraft of all or almost all types in service with the IDF Air Force. These will be F-15, F-16 or F-35 fighter-bombers in Israeli modifications. All of them are capable of carrying several different types of missiles and have sufficient combat radius to hit targets on Iranian territory.
For example, since the mid-nineties, the IDF Air Force has been using an air-to-surface missile called Delilah. It is a subsonic cruise missile with a range of 250 km. With its own weight of 187 kg, it carries a high-explosive warhead weighing 30 kg. Guidance is carried out using a combined method, using navigation devices and an infrared head.
A few years ago, the Air Force received a new air-to-surface missile called ROCKS. It is a solid-fuel munition capable of supersonic speeds and a range of up to 300 km. The combined control system with a full-fledged seeker provides high navigation and guidance accuracy. Various warhead options are available, including a concrete-piercing one capable of hitting buried targets.
Aeroballistic version of the LORA operational-tactical missile. Photo Wikimedia Commons
According to some reports, the IDF Air Force adopted the LORA aeroballistic missile at the beginning of the current decade. In essence, this is a munition of the eponymous operational-tactical missile system, modified for use from aircraft. LORA is 5,2 m long and weighs 1,6 tons, including a 570 kg warhead. The developers claim that the missile is capable of covering a distance of up to 400-430 km.
Organizationally, the Air Force includes missile units armed with ground-based missile systems of the Jericho family. According to known data, the IDF currently has Jericho-2 and Jericho-3 missiles in service. The Jericho-2 missile belongs to the medium-range class of weapons, and the Jericho-3 is intercontinental.
Attack and risks
In theory, the Israeli Air Force could launch a massive air strike against Iranian targets. To do so, several squadrons would have to fly to designated launch sites and use missiles. Depending on the exact attack plan, it would be possible to hit a large number of targets across virtually all of Iran.
However, this plan has its drawbacks. First of all, it is the difficulty of laying out the routes. Since Israel and Iran do not have a common border, the IDF Air Force will have to fly over the territory of third countries. At the same time, the shortest and most optimal route is effectively blocked by unfriendly Syria.
Much depends on the choice of targets. If Israel decides to attack targets in eastern Iran, its aircraft may have to enter enemy airspace. In that case, they will fall into the Iranian zone of responsibility. Defense and will be exposed to great risk. The missiles they launch may also become a target for the SAM system.
Launch of the Jericho-2 medium-range ballistic missile. Photo Wikimedia Commons
The use of ballistic missiles of the Jericho family allows one to avoid all the difficulties and risks associated with flying over foreign territory and entering air defense zones. However, such a choice of means of destruction will significantly limit the scale of the strike. According to various sources, no more than 20-25 such missiles are on duty. It is unlikely that the IDF will be able to urgently prepare and deploy a larger number of Jerichos.
There is another serious risk. Israel has been hinting at having nuclear weapons for decades. weapons. The supposed carriers of special warheads are the IRBMs and the Jericho series ICBMs. Any combat launch of such a product would attract unnecessary attention and could cause an undesirable reaction. For example, Iran, expecting a nuclear strike, could launch a full-scale retaliatory attack on an expanded range of targets. As it became known on October 1, the IDF will not be able to protect its country from such a threat.
In a difficult situation
The situation in the Middle East remains tense. Israel is planning to strike Iran, but has not yet fulfilled this promise. In response, Iran threatens a full-scale retaliatory action to any attack. Who will strike first and what consequences this will entail is anyone's guess.
It is important to note that both sides do have the ability to carry out a massive attack on enemy targets with some consequences. However, any such strike will only aggravate the situation and lead to a mutual exchange of strikes. More serious scenarios with a transition to full-scale combat operations cannot be ruled out. Whether this crisis can be resolved without a direct clash will become clear in the near future.
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