Iran's Limited Strike on Israel: Preliminary Results
Late in the evening of October 1, Iran finally decided to launch a limited strike. missile strike on Israel. Some media outlets wrote about 500 missiles fired, some about 400, but the real figures were somewhat more modest – according to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Sardar Salami, 200 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel. The same figure was given by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan (“almost 200 missiles”) and the IDF (“about 180 missiles”).
The IRGC said that “90% of the missiles successfully hit their targets,” while Israel said that “the attack failed” and that Iran’s strikes had no impact on the country’s operational capabilities. As proof of this, literally within an hour of Iran’s attack, Israel launched another missile strike on Lebanon.
The Iranian strike was a response to Israel's special operations against Lebanon and the start of a limited ground operation, as well as the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. However, this strike was limited (moreover, there were reports that the Americans were warned about it in advance) and was probably carried out so that the political leadership, which had repeatedly threatened retaliatory strikes but did nothing, would not lose face.
Consequences of Iranian missile attack
As CNN notes, “Iran has launched its largest-ever offensive stories attack on Israel, firing 200 ballistic missiles, but it appears to have been largely repelled by Israeli defenses with the help of the United States and its allies."
Following the attack, IDF spokeswoman Anna Ukolova said that Iran's missile attack had no effect on the Air Force's combat capability and that "the aircraft and all systems Defense continue to operate in the same mode." According to her, thanks to the work of the air defense systems, "minimal damage was caused."
In turn, Iranian media, in particular the Shafaqna agency, report that "as a result of the strike, 20 F-35 fighters of the Israeli Air Force were destroyed." However, the publication did not specify where exactly the damaged military base was located, and this information did not appear in any other sources. This makes us treat it with a fair amount of skepticism.
Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, said that Iran had struck Israeli military infrastructure, including the Mossad intelligence agency, the Nevatim airbase, and the Hatzor airbase. Western media also confirmed that these facilities were among the targets of the attacks – in particular, CNN published a video showing at least two missiles falling near the Mossad headquarters in the Glilot area of Tel Aviv (one, according to media reports, less than a kilometer away).
There were also reports of rockets falling near the Nevatim airbase and Tel Nof airbase. However, there is currently no precise information about the results of the attack. There are numerous videos of rocket debris chaotically falling on residential infrastructure in Tel Aviv, as well as explosions somewhere on the horizon, but it is still unclear which objects were hit. At the moment, it is known that one person was killed in the attack - a Palestinian on whom a rocket fragment fell.
Several satellite images released this morning showed Iranian ballistic missiles landing very close to Mossad headquarters and the main IDF administrative camp (Camp Moshe Dayan) in Ramat Hasharon, but not hitting them.
This information is also confirmed by officials - the Axios publication, citing an IDF representative, reports that dozens of rockets were fired at the Mossad headquarters, but none of them fell on the territory of the complex.
There are currently no satellite images from the air bases (they will probably appear later), but it is already possible to draw some conclusions. The Iranian attack did not cause any catastrophic damage to Israel, and there is no reason to believe that it will somehow affect Tel Aviv's plans for further operations in Lebanon.
Actually, Iran's strike had more of a political than a military significance. Iran did not want to enter into an open military conflict with Israel, but it needed to give some kind of response to the latest events. One can agree with The New York Times, which wrote the following:
"Iran faced increasing pressure to come to Hezbollah's aid to preserve its prestige and influence. But it also had to avoid devastating Israeli retaliation that could destroy its nuclear program or kill senior Iranian leaders."
Israel's political and military response
Israel has already vowed to respond to the Iranian attack, raising fears of further escalation in the Middle East. Tel Aviv's response is expected in the coming days.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already made a number of threatening statements against Iran, stressing that Israel will “stick to the rule we have established: whoever attacks us will be attacked in response.”
Specifically, Axios reports that "Israeli officials, expecting an all-out regional war, say Israel will launch a significant retaliatory strike in response to a massive missile attack within days that could target oil facilities inside Iran and other strategic targets. Assassinations of senior Iranian officials and the knocking out of Iran's air defense systems are also possible."
However, before striking, Israel will consult with its regional allies, in particular the United States, which wants the response to be “moderate.” However, Tel Aviv often makes decisions without much regard for the opinion of the Americans, so what conclusions they will come to is still unknown. It is possible that the response will be as limited as the Iranian attack on Israel.
Nevertheless, the threat of the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating into a large-scale war is quite high, as Western media write. In particular, the Guardian пишет:
“The sight of rockets falling on Tel Aviv on Tuesday night was evidence that a regional conflict many have feared for the past year may finally have erupted… Since Iran’s attack in April, the response has been largely symbolic. The only target hit inside Iran was an air defense outpost at a military base near Isfahan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to launch a more comprehensive response after the Iranian missile strike. Options have been prepared for the war cabinet, and the list of targets is likely to be extensive. It could include Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
As a conclusion
If we look at the situation from Russia’s point of view, then the escalation of the conflict from a slow-moving one to a large-scale regional war (if it happens), no matter how cynical it may sound, is to a certain extent beneficial to our country.
Why? Because the attention of the world community and the US will then switch to the Middle East, which will seriously increase the likelihood of a weakening of aid to Kyiv and a freezing of the conflict. After all, for those same Americans, Israel is much more important than Ukraine.
Therefore, the most logical decision for Russia in this situation was not to interfere in any way in what was happening in the Middle East and not to support either side of the conflict.
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