Israel's Special Operation Against Lebanon: Preliminary Results
In late September, Israel launched a multi-layered operation against Hezbollah, which effectively controls most of Lebanon. The operation, or rather a series of special operations, lasted from September 17 to 27, and it is not yet certain that it will not continue.
Why is the title Lebanon and not Hezbollah?
Because Hezbollah is not just a paramilitary group that is considered stronger than the Lebanese army, but also an Islamist political party that has enormous influence in Lebanon. That is why when we write “Lebanon,” we mean “Hezbollah.”
So, during the specified period, Hezbollah suffered a crushing blow, from which it will hardly be able to recover in the foreseeable future. It is already possible to sum up the preliminary results of this series of military sabotage operations.
Three-level special operation
The operation against Lebanon can be called three-level, because it took place in three stages.
In the first stage, the Israeli secret services (Mossad and Shabak) blew up pagers and radios, which resulted in either maiming or eliminating Hezbollah officers. This operation will certainly become one of the history sabotage operations, and they carried it out brilliantly. Yes, among the victims of this sabotage operation were women and children (mostly family members of Hezbollah officers), but as cynical as it may sound, in military terminology this is called collateral damage.
The aim of the action was not only to strike at the organization's officer corps. It was also intended to sow fear and panic among all those associated with Hezbollah and its supporters.
In the second phase of the operation, which began a few days after the radio and pager explosions (September 23), the Israeli army inflicted hundreds of missile strikes and airstrikes on the headquarters of various Hezbollah units, military installations and infrastructure facilities of the group in the south and east of Lebanon.
The IDF's goal, which dubbed the operation "Arrows of the North," was to reduce the group's military potential. Judging by numerous videos, including those showing ammunition detonations and the destruction of systems Defense, this goal was achieved. Moreover, such attacks continue to this day.
In the third phase, as part of Operation New Order, the Israeli Air Force struck an underground Hezbollah bunker in the Dahiya neighborhood in southern Beirut. The bunker housed the organization's top leadership, including its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian IRGC Major General Abbas Nilforoushan. They were all killed.
According to media reports, several dozen bombs (83) were dropped on the bunker, including 28-pound (4 kg) GBU-000 bunker busters. These bombs can penetrate 1 meters (as well as 800 meters of reinforced concrete), and have previously been used to destroy shallow bunkers and underground command centers.
According to other sources, GBU-31 bombs with a BLU-109 warhead were also used. In particular, one of the videos published online shows that GBU-15(V)31 bombs are installed on F-3I aircraft.
In any case, in this short period Hezbollah suffered catastrophic damage: its leadership was killed, its officers were maimed, its military facilities were destroyed. At the same time, Israel did not lose a single soldier.
This once again demonstrates that intelligence and counterintelligence, information gathering, can be of much greater value than fortifications, tons of modern anti-tank missiles (of which the Lebanese/Hezbollah have a lot) and various ammunition, as well as equipment.
Israel's intelligence relied not only on a serious technical advantage in the form of spy satellites, sophisticated drones, and cyber attacks that turned phones into listening devices. Yes, all of that was present - tons of data was collected, which was then analyzed by a team of specialists, and decisions were made on the basis of this data - but in addition to this, agents were infiltrated into the group, as well as into Iranian intelligence services, who also provided the necessary information.
It is still unknown whether Israel will launch a ground operation in Lebanon after it has completely exhausted the enemy (this option is quite likely, and most likely in the near future), but Tel Aviv has already achieved significant results. So significant that a ground operation may not be necessary.
How will Iran act?
Many are wondering how Iran will respond to these actions by Israel?
Until now, the only response has been to hang out "red flags of revenge" (and bridges illuminated in crimson red), threatening statements and hints. And at the moment, there is no reason to assume that the situation will undergo any changes.
This is, in fact, evidenced by the statement of the Iranian Foreign Ministry on September 30 – the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Nasser Kanani at a press conference that was broadcast by the SNN television channel, said, that Iran has no plans to send troops to help Hezbollah because “Lebanon has proven that it can win on its own.” How it has proven this, especially after everything that has happened, remains a mystery.
Thus, Iran has officially declared that it will not enter into an open conflict with Israel, which could threaten the country with serious consequences. Moreover, after the assassination of the Hezbollah leader, according to Western intelligence, Iran's Supreme Leader (Ayatollah) Ali Khamenei was moved to a bunker. Just in case.
At the same time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke at a UN meeting about his readiness for negotiations and dialogue with the US and Europe, and to work on restoring the nuclear deal, not failing to assure the world community that Iran “does not approve of Russian aggression.”
This latest, clearly anti-Russian statement should be interpreted as follows: Russia may become a bargaining chip in possible negotiations with the US, which hints at Iran's true attitude towards our country. Tehran is in fact a fellow traveler for Moscow, relations between the countries are pragmatic, and if tomorrow it is advantageous for Iran to lower the level of relations, it will undoubtedly do so. There is no talk of any alliance.
In general, there are no signs yet that Iran is ready to openly act against Israel – until now it has always tried to do this through proxy means, and there is no reason to assume that the situation will change.
As a conclusion
Recently, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a shocking statement, noting that “we created a unit to counter Israel, and its leader turned out to be a Mossad agent.” This clearly demonstrates the difference in the intelligence levels of Iran and Israel.
Israel is undoubtedly the leader of the region and is ready to defend its national interests (as it sees them) regardless of public opinion, the position of the "world community" and even its allies in the United States. They simply do what they think is necessary. Because they can.
However, Israel's successful special operation not only demonstrates the high level of training of the Israeli special services, but also how high technology can radically change the situation. It also points to the monstrous incompetence of its opponents.
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