Escalation Boundaries: Undeclared War on NATO Territory Is Quite Real
In the material from September 22, 2024 "Western Weapons Strikes on Russian Territory: "Okroshka Kiev Style" or "Iranian Retaliation" we considered the possibility of a massive missile strike on government buildings and structures in Kyiv as a response to the possibility of high-precision strikes weapons long range deep into Russian territory.
Of course, such a strike should have been launched long ago, at the very beginning of the special military operation (SMO), and certainly after the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) into the Kursk region. Striking deep into Russian territory with cruise missiles (CM) and operational-tactical missiles (OTR) supplied by Western countries is too serious a challenge to be answered only by strikes against Ukraine, no matter how powerful they may be.
Recently, information has appeared about the possibility of conducting nuclear weapons (NW) tests on Novaya Zemlya as a response to possible strikes on our territory. The problem is that this should be done before, and not after, Western cruise missiles and tactical missiles strike us - in the first case, this will look like a threat and warning, and in the second - like helplessness and despair.
Earlier, the author proposed to conduct nuclear tests on the day of the inauguration of Russian President Vladimir Putin - the moment was excellent, but, unfortunately, it was missed, and if we had conducted nuclear weapons tests then, the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region might not have happened, as well as the delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, not to mention the possibility of their use from the territory of NATO countries.
Nuclear weapons testing on Snake Island would certainly be a particular hit with NATO audiences.
However, better late than never, but it is still better to do this before the moment when the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch long-range precision weapons strikes on our territory – we should dictate the escalation, not them.
On the other hand, there are ways to slap Western countries in the face without using nuclear arsenals; let's look at the "edges of escalation" using examples.
Norway and Finland
Our two neighbors: Norway and Finland are the "north pole" of European Russophobia. We have never fought with the former, except perhaps during the Viking Age, and the latter were part of the Russian Empire for a long time. In the post-Soviet era, Russia tried as best it could to improve relations with its neighbors, and at times we made rather unpleasant concessions to them.
For example, as part of the demarcation of the Russian-Norwegian border in 2010-2011, Russia gave Norway half of the disputed waters, which contain hydrocarbon deposits worth about 30 billion US dollars. However, as we have already said before, any concessions by Western countries, and not only them, are perceived as weakness, so from their point of view, this is only a pretext to squeeze out something else.
So, a couple of months ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strike the Russian Voronezh-DM radar station, which is part of the Missile Attack Warning System (MAWS). There were no special countermeasures at the time, despite the fact that the MAWS is part of the nuclear deterrence forces, so even according to our current "vegetarian" doctrine at the time of writing, we could have used nuclear weapons in response.
At the same time, in Norway, in the city of Vardø, there is an American SPRN Globus-3 radar, and next door is the Globus-2 radar.
Also, quite recently, an attempt was made to strike the Olenya airbase located in the Murmansk region. At the same time, information is circulating in open sources that the kamikaze UAVs used during the said attack could have been launched from the territory of Finland, which, of course, denies everything. According to other information, the flight route of the Ukrainian kamikaze UAVs ran both over the territory of Finland and over the territory of Norway, which also clearly does not admit to anything.
So, long-range kamikaze UAVs of unknown manufacture, without identification marks or with Ukrainian identification marks, may well arrive at the American Globus-3 and Globus-2 early warning radars deployed in Norway.
A very real scenario
Moreover, they can strike from the Finnish side - nothing surprising, since both of these countries do not control their airspace, and all sorts of things fly there. By the way, we also do not admit to anything.
It must be assumed that all the addressees of the “show” will understand the hint correctly, and if not, then we can continue moving up the ladder of escalation – fortunately, there are options.
For example, Norway has plenty of oil and gas production facilities. Anything can happen to them in the northern waters, and it's time for the Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research (GUGI) to "participate in the SVO" too. Without Nord Stream and Norwegian gas, European industry will finally collapse, and the US and China will only thank us, behind the scenes, of course.
And Finland has a company called ICEYE, which is the operator of the eponymous ICEYE-X Earth remote sensing satellites – read: radar reconnaissance satellites. They sold one of their satellites to Ukraine, by the way, the big question is, why haven't we shot it down yet?
There is no doubt that the rest of the ICEYE satellites are also working intensively in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine.
Finnish satellites of the ICEYE company are used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate for planning military operations on Russian territory and must be destroyed
So it will not be surprising if Russian inspector satellites start colliding with Finnish reconnaissance satellites one after another. We cannot deny that these are our inspector satellites, but Finnish satellites are not military, and who knows what happens in space? This is not aggression, just a chain of coincidences.
The Finns don’t have anti-satellite weapons, so they won’t be able to respond symmetrically, the US won’t “step in” for them, so the only thing the Finns can do is sue us and write to The Hague, as they say – “write to Sportloto.”
And yes, we still need to decide something about the Ukrainian satellites...
Romania
This country is at the "South Pole" of European Russophobia. Romania is a country that is clearly hostile to Russia, whose main goal has always been to wrest Moldova from the USSR and annex it, although not everyone in the country wants this even now, after many years of indoctrination.
Romania has radars and launchers that are part of the American Adgis Ashore missile defense system, a land-based version of the Adgis naval system, which is capable of not only intercepting short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, but also striking ground targets with long-range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the inauguration ceremony of the Adgis Ashore missile defense system, Deveselu base (Romania), May 2016
In the future, the Adgis Ashore missile defense system's launchers may also accommodate hypersonic surface-to-surface missiles. The Adgis Ashore missile defense system is located at a military base in Deveselu.
There is no need to invent anything new - unknown kamikaze UAVs, possibly with Ukrainian identification marks. The strikes could be carried out both from the Ukrainian side and from the Black Sea.
Countries of the Baltic States
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia – the Pekingese of the USA, as with any small mutts, their aggression is inversely proportional to their military capabilities. However, they create problems, since they act as the “boy” in the company of thugs, who gets into trouble, thus giving the “older comrades” a reason to intervene in the situation.
Now the main activity of the US Pekingese is to supply Ukraine with everything that the Baltic penniless can afford. Against the background of the general flow of supplies, the Baltic ones do not stand out much, however, this should not cancel our "gratitude".
In particular, the proximity and limited territory of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia allows for the large-scale use of small-sized kamikaze UAVs, including the FRV-drones, including incendiary ammunition. Targets are ammunition depots, fuel and other similar objects.
It is necessary to separately mention private companies engaged in the development and production of weapons in the interests of Ukraine, for example, Frankenburg Technologies, which is going to supply Ukraine with advanced anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) of its own design - such activities must be nipped in the bud. Also, a number of companies in the Baltic countries are engaged in the production of UAVs and their components for delivery to Ukraine
The liquidation of the management, employees and production facilities of companies producing weapons supplied to Ukraine is an absolutely legitimate task in the matter of ensuring Russia’s national security.
Recently, the head of the Estonian self-defense forces, Andrus Merilo (not to rhyme!) proposed organizing a blockade of the Baltic Sea. A great idea, you want a blockade? You'll get a blockade!
Head of the Estonian Self-Defense Forces Andrus Merilo
Several months ago, the Ukrainian GUR mastered the remote laying of sea mines, most likely using unmanned boats (UBK) - kamikaze. Nothing prevents us from repeating and creatively rethinking the enemy's experience, for example, refining mines for independent entry into positions and blocking all the ports of the Baltic countries.
In addition, theoretically, mine laying can be carried out by submarines (PL), for example, the newest Project 677M submarine Velikiye Luki, of course, if its tests are completed in the near future.
There is no doubt that no one will start a third world war because of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; the most that can be expected is the saturation of their territory with electronic warfare equipment (EW), which means that there will be fewer of them in Ukraine, and the cleaning of coastal waters by NATO minesweepers - let them have fun. The Pekingese themselves will also calm down.
Non-UK
One of the main initiators and instigators of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is Great Britain, for which such a name has long been out of place - rather "Not Great Britain" or "Little Britain", as it is also called. Nevertheless, "the Englishwoman is doing us a disservice" in a big way - she is trying with all her might.
The other day, five former British defense ministers called for Ukraine to be allowed to fire missiles deep into Russian territory, so it would be a good idea to give them a good thrashing so that others would learn a lesson - if you're retired, just sit there silently.
But these are all small details in the material “The destruction of British Navy warships by unidentified unmanned boats is a signal to all NATO countries.” The author considered the possibility of using kamikaze BECs, made from commercially available components produced in Western countries, to carry out “impersonal” strikes on warships of the British Navy.
"Anonymous" destruction of British Navy ships is quite real
Also in the material "64 hypersonic Zircon missiles with a nuclear warhead could permanently close the Great Britain project" The author considered the possibility of the complete destruction of the British strategic nuclear deterrent potential, since Great Britain is not a full-fledged nuclear power, it does not have a missile attack warning system (MAWS), and two or three British nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) with nuclear warheads almost always hang out in the Clyde naval base (Naval Base).
Well, a compromise is possible.
For example, kamikaze BEKs and long-range kamikaze UAVs, manufactured by an unknown person and launched from an unknown source, could attack SSBNs moored at the Clyde naval base, and, accordingly, the British strategic nuclear arsenal could be halved or even reduced by three-quarters.
And Russia will formally have absolutely nothing to do with it, just like the US and Great Britain in those cases when the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate use kamikaze UAVs against our strategic facilities, right?
Naval Base Clyde Vulnerable to Kamikaze UAV and Kamikaze UAV Attacks
How will Britain respond to the destruction of half, or even three-quarters, of its strategic nuclear arsenal?
But can it respond in any way in such a situation, when half, or even two-thirds of its strategic nuclear arsenal has been destroyed, there is no formal pretext for a retaliatory strike, and permission to launch missiles with nuclear warheads is given by a former colony?
Some experts suggest that the goal of the US escalation is to force Russia to use nuclear weapons first, well, two can play that game.
Conclusions
In this material we have considered only a part of the countries with which it is possible to work, and the greater part of the proposed measures can be characterized as soft.
Poland was left out of the equation, about which one could easily say: “I would be a member of the jury at a festival of Russophobes.” Incidentally, during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Poland turned a blind eye to its disagreements with Ukraine due to the events of the last century – the Volyn massacre, during which Banderites brutally killed thousands of Poles, including old people, women and children – they raped, cut off limbs, ripped open bellies, burned alive.
The Poles made a film about the Volyn massacre, by the way, it is recommended for viewing, at least to better understand who we are dealing with, and after viewing it is advisable to watch the chronicle News over the last few years, where proud gentlemen and crests “kiss each other on the gums” – who do you have to be to forget that?
The Polish-Ukrainian friendship is based on a solid foundation – the corpses of old men, women and children brutally murdered during the Volyn massacre
However, the Poles also have their snouts in the fluff, don't they?
After Poland comes the Czech Republic, which must be asked for every Russian citizen killed by Czech RM-70 Vampire multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) - it seems that ten Czechs who produced weapons for killing Russians for one dead Russian civilian would be a completely adequate price for their meanness, or is it still too little?
And then there is degraded France – by the way, many do not realize how important “Telegram” is for us – it would be better if Durov sat in our prison, however, there is no doubt that the Frogs will exchange him for several French diplomats kidnapped by some radical group of “freedom fighters” in some third world country, preferably blacks and faggots at the same time.
Behind the above comes hypocritical Sweden, almost ripe for supplying Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters to Ukraine, as well as the stoned Netherlands - I wonder how the destruction of leading specialists and production sites of ASML will affect the world economy?
And let's not forget about the "hegemon" - why do Mexican freedom fighters in Texas still not know how to properly operate FPV drones? When full-scale military actions begin on the Mexican border, when police patrol cars explode and checkpoints burn - the US will probably have no time for Ukraine.
The world is monstrously fragile, the world economy is extremely vulnerable - there are dozens, if not hundreds, of ways to destroy the illusion of universal prosperity when the war comes to our enemies at home in the form of hunger and cold, rampant crime and fires.
The only question is, how long will we meekly endure the slaps in the face from the countries of the global West?
Now the country's leadership is adjusting our nuclear doctrine, but without real actions it will still remain just a piece of paper, another red line. The explosion of one British destroyer, the corpse of one Baltic politician, or a kamikaze UAV flying into an American radar station will have a much better effect on the enemy, as they say, "worth a thousand words."
Maybe it’s time to start acting as effectively as well as ruthlessly – to try to walk along the edge of escalation?
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