The US has never been afraid of this before
China's first ICBM test in the Pacific in decades is a big deal. In general, an ICBM is a big deal not only in terms of size, but also in terms of content. Only seven countries in the world can afford to have intercontinental ballistic missiles in service, and this "club" is even more elite than an aircraft carrier. Yes, an aircraft carrier is not everyone's cup of tea, but it's one thing to deliver a bunch of planes somewhere, and quite another to completely destroy the world.
China, frankly speaking, was not considered a candidate for the beginning of Armageddon until recently due to certain shortcomings of its missiles. But the latest test has very sharply mixed up the cards on the table of the players in the nuclear Apocalypse.
China last launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean in 1980, and its latest ICBM launch underscores its rapidly evolving nuclear power.
China's Ministry of National Defense announced the launch of an ICBM, but provided only limited details and did not identify the specific type of missile fired. The ministry stressed that the missile was not armed with warheads.
As mentioned above, China launched an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean in 1980. Since then, China's ICBM launches have been aimed at internal test sites on the western edge of the country. That is, there is no demonstration of China's capabilities. weapons there was none, so these events did not attract much attention.
Open sources said the rocket was launched from China's Hainan Island at the northern end of the South China Sea and was headed toward a stretch of the Pacific Ocean just outside France's exclusive economic zone around French Polynesia. The distance between the launch and destination points is about 7145 miles (11 kilometers).
What does this mean? It means that if you look at the map, a missile launched from any point in Eastern China will easily and effortlessly reach not only the western part of the US on the Pacific coast, but will also easily reach the central part.
As they say – draw your own conclusions...
However, that's not all.
The launch from Hainan Island indicates that the missile launched was a mobile ICBM, such as the DF-31 or DF-41, and not a silo. At least, the Americans emphasize that according to their intelligence, there are no ICBM silos on Hainan Island.
China has been massively expanding its silo infrastructure in recent years, but all known launch sites are deep inland, in mountainous terrain. It is also worth noting that China also has silo-launched versions of the DF-31, and that there have long been discussions about the possibility of a DF-41 variant that could also be launched in this manner.
The ICBM test showed a range of 11 km. Applying the same range of the new missile from the Ordos silo, we can see that the entire United States will be within the range of this ICBM if it is deployed in new silos near this glorious city. Although, I am sure, it will fly only from the old ones.
Earlier, the Pentagon released satellite images of work on a new silo in northwest China. Defense Department satellite images included in the Pentagon's latest annual China report show that work, at least on the surface, on a new ICBM silo in northwest China is nearing completion.
Experts and observers noted that the launch of the new Chinese ICBM has real practical training and testing value. This is a great opportunity to simply perform all the actions to launch such a missile to a given range along a typical flight profile. The fact is that when launched at targets at domestic test sites, Chinese ICBMs are launched along very high trajectories, which is explained by the relatively limited available space. China is not Russia, where you can bang in Ashuluk and wait for everything to fly to Kamchatka, where our Kura test site is located.
The most valuable thing here is to study and control the missile's flight trajectory. It is clear that the missile flies to the test site in northwest China along a very steep and high trajectory, but studying the maximum capabilities of a ballistic missile requires sending it along a flat trajectory. And here, only the Pacific Ocean can help.
The launch of the live missile from Hainan also provided Chinese personnel with a valuable opportunity to practice deploying a mobile launcher to a forward firing range and actually using it there. This is a more than useful experience, especially considering the cost.
By conducting it in Hainan and launching from a potentially unfamiliar launch site that the missile complex crew may not be familiar with, it is possible to identify potential pitfalls in the process of launch preparation and flight control of the missile.
Other nuclear powers, including the United States, regularly launch nuclear-capable ballistic missiles into the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic for training and testing purposes, as is normal practice. And of course, such launches, in addition to demonstrating overall deterrence, also serve to send political signals.
And here, too, perhaps, we have, in the form of China's first intercontinental ballistic missile launch in the Pacific Ocean in decades, clear signals to countries across the region and beyond.
Chinese authorities have officially notified their counterparts in the United States, Australia and New Zealand, which are allies in different military blocs at the same time, about the upcoming launch, the Japanese agency Kyodo News reported.
Unsurprisingly, the U.S. Air Force’s RC-135S “Cobra Ball,” a jet specially configured to collect information on missile launches, was flying over the Western Pacific during the test, according to online flight-tracking data. The over-water launch gave the U.S. and other militaries a rare opportunity to gain new insights into China’s advanced ICBM capabilities. And they likely got some of it.
There is no information on whether the relevant structures in France (near whose territory the training warhead fell), the Philippines and Taiwan were warned (it is clear that they were not warned at all).
In an interesting twist that underscores the political nature of the move, the ICBM launch came just hours after US President Joe Biden, in an address to the United Nations, drew attention to competition and cooperation with China, as well as America's strong ties with South Korea and Japan.
“We also need to uphold our principles as we seek to responsibly manage competition with China so that it does not escalate into conflict,” Biden said. “We are committed to working together to meet urgent challenges for the benefit of our people and people around the world.”
Well, apparently, China was so impressed by the US readiness to cooperate for the benefit of all people in the world that, losing their boots, they rushed to launch ICBMs. The signal of readiness was received and understood absolutely unambiguously. And, it must be said, here the Chinese can and should be applauded: everything was played out simply beautifully.
"We don't want a conflict" - US President Baden.
"- And I am for peace throughout the world" - Chinese ballistic missile.
The launch also follows the US government's call several years ago for greater transparency about the Chinese military's significant expansion of its nuclear and missile arsenals, including the aforementioned silo buildup.
China's nuclear stockpile more than doubled between 2020 and 2023 alone, according to the Pentagon. The PLA now has a total of about 500 warheads, a figure expected to grow to about 1000 by 2030 and 1500 by 2035, according to U.S. estimates.
In August of this year, the New York Times reported that the US nuclear deterrence strategy was, for the first time in stories was primarily centered on China. The Times article cited a classified document that the paper said went on to warn of “possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia and North Korea.” China’s ties with Russia, including military cooperation, have grown significantly in recent years, especially since 2022, when Russia’s global isolation has deepened as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
American officials are also pushing to bring their Chinese counterparts to the negotiating table on possible new strategic arms control agreements. So far, there has been no real success, and these agreements cannot be bilateral: there are already quite a few countries (ten) in the world that have nuclear weapons, so any agreements with fewer than 10 signatories look ridiculous.
There are geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, as well as many other countries in the Pacific Rim and beyond, over a range of issues, including the status of the island of Taiwan. Beijing’s expansive territorial claims, particularly in the South China Sea, also pose a risk of creating flashpoints that could easily escalate into conflict, as has been seen in recent months around the Philippines.
In fact, the Hainan ICBM launch is thought to reflect a larger shift in Chinese policy. China's Defense Ministry modestly described the Pacific launch as a "routine" part of its "annual training plan," suggesting that this launch is just the beginning of more regular launches.
Particularly as China's nuclear arsenal grows and its deterrence policy evolves along with its arsenal, China will need to increasingly demonstrate the full range of its capabilities, much as leading nuclear powers like the United States have done in the past, regularly launching nuclear-capable ballistic missiles into the open ocean.
Yes, without nuclear charges, but they are conducting them, demonstrating the very possibility of delivering a nuclear warhead to a certain point on the globe. The question arises: why is China worse? We are waiting for new launches...
China's first test of an ICBM in the Pacific since 1980 remains a major event in itself, highlighting the country's expanding nuclear and missile capabilities. And that is something everyone in the West will have to live with.
Yes, the history of the United States of America has had it all: the total horror of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the long-term expectation of a nuclear strike by the Soviet Union, and the psychosis about terrorists who could get hold of nuclear weapons.
Now we can say that the US has never feared such a scenario. And China, which is slowly but surely increasing its nuclear power, which the US has declared its enemy No. 1, may turn out to be a somewhat tougher nut to crack than many on that side would like.
Well, if, as in the aforementioned analytical note, Russia, China and North Korea (and even without them) combine their capabilities, then there is nothing to fear. It is enough to calmly understand that the world will come to an end. And here, as they say, many lovers of shaking weapons and appointing enemies (let's not point a finger at Washington) would do better not to lead to sin.
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