NGAD is dead, we are waiting for NGAD-2!
Just recently we were enthusiastically discussing the prospects of both the American sixth-generation fighter and its unmanned “faithful wingmen.” And although some believed that American technology was something perfect and infallible, no, it’s still “Zumwalt”!
And yes, we are not without sin either, we have more than enough of our own “No Analogues”, but to each his own, and for our “No Analogues” there will always be their “Zumwalt”. And this is quite normal, and therefore we will now consider the situation with the NGAD program and estimate what threat this poses to us.
So, news days: The US Air Force announces a competition for one of its most important future weapons, which was supposed to replace the F-22A Raptor.
"Originally conceived in the late 1980s, the F-22A remains highly capable, but the service believes a new aircraft with new technologies is needed to dominate current and future Russian and Chinese fighters."
Whatever fans of American technology say, yes, the F-22 has the highest combat capability in terms of warfare with balloons. Unfortunately, it has not been noted for anything more in the 20+ years it has been in service. Maybe, of course, I am wrong about something, correct me, but the Americans themselves write that the first use of the F-22 against an air target is February 2023. For a fighter, it is quite.
However, those who want to praise the Raptor can do so, but the US Air Force believes that it needs to be replaced.
And after much deliberation and debate, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, designed to create the world's first sixth-generation fighter, is back in development. And right from the start, for several reasons.
First, Air Force experts need to define exactly what the Air Force wants from an air superiority aircraft in the 2030s and beyond.
The second is to find out how it is possible (and whether it is possible at all) to implement such a thing weapon into reality.
"The NGAD reboot is an example of how the slow and complex development of modern combat aircraft is at odds with the breakneck pace of technological advances, which in turn threatens to strip even the newest aircraft of their most advanced features."
Well, that is, it is not the NGAD developers who are to blame, having mastered a certain number of billions of dollars, but technological progress, which has significantly outpaced the speed of aircraft design. That is, the lasers and blasters are already ready, but it has not been decided where to place the batteries for them in the fuselage. It happens.
Gen. Jim Slife, the Air Force's vice chief of staff, said the service is considering what it's really trying to do with the NGAD program in the first place, which raises two more questions:
- how the Air Force will achieve air superiority in a conflict;
- how to create a sixth-generation manned fighter.
“I mean, it’s not necessarily the same question,” Slife said earlier this month at a Defense News press conference in Arlington, Va.
Slife’s comments follow a July announcement by Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall that the service was suspending the NGAD program to review its data. Now, after years of development, the Air Force is embarking on a complete overhaul and shifting focus to take advantage of new technologies that have emerged since the aircraft was first conceived in the mid-2010s.
As part of that process, the Air Force consults with the program’s “lowballers” — or the major defense contractors that will compete for the contract to build NGAD — to determine the best way to move the program forward. The lowballers list includes not only aerospace companies that could build the airframe, such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing, but also engine makers General Electric and Pratt & Whitney.
The Air Force first began looking at replacing the F-22A in 2016, following the findings of its own study. That report concluded that the service should procure a Raptor replacement, known as Penetrating Counter Air (PCA), by 2030. PCA became NGAD in the late 2010s. Then, in 2020, former Air Force Assistant Secretary Will Roper stunned the world by announcing that a technology demonstrator aircraft had been developed, tested, and flown in just one year.
But the plane was never presented to the public.
However, information about NGAD has been slowly leaking out over the years. In 2020, Roper said the sixth-generation fighter would likely feature an AI co-pilot. Everyone laughed at the software version. drone R2D2, who accompanied Luke Skywalker's X-Wing fighter in the Star Wars films.
In 2022, Kendall testified to Congress that the jets would cost “hundreds of millions” each, a figure that was later refined to be around $250 million to $300 million for the next-generation jet. Then, in 2023, Kendall said the Air Force wanted a minimum of 200 NGAD fighters, along with 1000 wingmen. drones to accompany them in battle. A normal figure, we also wanted 1000 at one time tanks "Armata" and 200 Su-57 aircraft.
But reality can be somewhat more cruel than dreams.
“The key to understanding NGAD is that it will not be the next, better ‘fighter.’ Rather, NGAD will be a family of systems that together will be more effective at sustaining long-range warfighting in challenging environments,” explains Mark “Gonzo” Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capabilities assessment at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Va. “This family of systems will be more resilient, more survivable than current-generation fighters.”
Well, Mr. Gunzinger also made a lot of big, bold noises about how the next-generation air superiority fighter will have a longer range, carry a larger payload, have more sophisticated sensors and information fusion systems, and have the versatile broadband stealth needed to maintain superiority over China's increasingly sophisticated air defense forces.
Each NGAD aircraft will be able to control one to five unmanned aircraft known as Joint Combat Aircraft (CCA) or “loyal wingmen.” Equipped with artificial intelligence and carrying sensors, jammers and missiles, each CCA drone will act as an airborne force multiplier, giving a manned fighter the ability to see further, shoot further, and hit more opponents—all without risking more human lives.
CCA will become part of the NGAD family of systems
Gunzinger: "The combat potential of CCAs goes beyond simply serving as loyal wingmen. Cheaper CCAs with some degree of autonomy could also be used to disrupt enemy air defenses, challenge enemy air defenses, and force enemy forces to respond in ways that reduce the risk to overall U.S. operations."
In general, it is exactly the same, which has no analogues in the world. Familiar. But at the same time, there are many details and nuances here. In order to unleash the full potential of joint combat aircraft, the Air Force must figure out how to best use the advantages that both unmanned and manned aircraft provide in combat. And this, excuse me, is not one year for the development, construction and testing of a full range of tests. A full range of full-fledged tests.
“CCA will complement fifth-generation manned combat aircraft, it will not replace the F-22, F-35, and NGAD – both manned and unmanned systems are necessary to achieve air superiority and create other effects needed to win in a peer conflict.”
In general, it’s quite logical, pragmatic, smells of multi-billion dollar contracts – in general, everyone is clearly happy with everything.
But as ambitious as those plans are, the Air Force wants to add even more capabilities to NGAD. Slife said there are new, emerging technologies that didn't exist when the Air Force set the NGAD requirements. That means there are new technologies that the Air Force now wants to put on the plane from the start. And it only takes about six years of work to get there. Not that many, actually; more ambitious projects have fallen through the cracks, it should be noted.
What is all this for?
In my opinion, this is a very reasonable question. After all, back in 2020, Will Roper, the Air Force's deputy director of acquisition and logistics, announced that the NGAD prototype had begun flight testing. And four years to where?
Although we don’t know how he flew…
But if you think ahead, the most obvious technology in the world of unclassified technology would be artificial intelligence, although that same remark by Roper about R2D2 suggests that the service was certainly jumping to conclusions. But artificial intelligence is something that already exists today, and although it mostly resides in the European Union, it is nevertheless entirely possible that it will appear on airplanes. Unfortunately, nothing else comes to mind.
Sure, you can fantasize about “We have these missiles, but we won’t tell you about them,” meaning there may well be some highly classified capabilities that weren’t ready in 2016, like onboard offensive and defensive lasers, new advances in stealth, and new sensors. And maybe they are ready already. Or maybe they aren’t.
The Air Force's decision illustrates an important problem with modern fighters: the rapid development of new technologies means that a jet that takes 15 to 20 years to develop may not be able to match key technologies developed after the aircraft's specifications have been finalized. And it's really hard to disagree, all story aviation is full of examples where a couple of breakthrough technologies made entire generations of aircraft that had just entered service obsolete.
The F-35 program began in 1995, but the first aircraft weren’t declared operational until 2015–2019. That long development period meant the jet needed technology upgrades almost immediately, including a processor upgrade, new internal cooling systems, a video datalink, and the ability to carry new weapons. The F-35’s newest upgrade, Tech Refresh 3, is rolling out to air forces around the world this year. And there’s no getting around it.
The NGAD program is also being restructured because of cost. Early versions of the F-35 cost more than $200 million per plane, and while the cost has dropped sharply as Lockheed Martin has built more of the jets, buyers have suffered severe price shock from both the plane and the cost of operating it. Even the world’s most expensive jet, at $300 million, will be a tough sell, especially given that the Air Force must also afford new T-7 Red Tail jet trainers and F-35 fighters in the coming years, while developing a stealthy aerial refueling tanker and funding both the new Sentinel ICBM and the B-21 Raider.
Overall, there are enough programs and directions, but ideally the Air Force should reduce costs by increasing the efficiency of development and production, otherwise it could end up in bankruptcy. Although here the Air Force may be forced to agree to a reduction in NGAD capabilities or postpone them for a later date.
Regardless, NGAD may be the most important conventional weapons program of the early 21st century. If the Air Force can get it right, a force of sixth-generation fighters backed by armed drones could be a powerful deterrent to America’s adversaries.
But first, before they can do any of that, the Air Force has to get NGAD right this time. And that's where it's very much in doubt. There are two real possibilities here, either NGAD has truly become so obsolete after 8 years of work on the program from day one and 4 years of flight testing that the project needs to be restarted, or...
Or four years of testing of the NGAD prototype showed its complete failure. This could well have happened.
So everyone can choose for themselves.
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