Western Weapons Strikes on Russian Territory: "Okroshka Kiev Style" or "Iranian Retaliation"
On the path of escalation
One of the most discussed topics of recent times has been the possibility of Ukraine receiving permission from Western countries to launch strikes with high-precision cruise missiles (KR) and operational-tactical missiles (OTM) supplied by them on the old territory of Russia.
In many ways, this permission is a disingenuous act, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have long been carrying out strikes on old Russian territory without any restrictions using American HIMARS guided missiles. Also, the AFU and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine carry out strikes hundreds and even thousands of kilometers deep into Russian territory using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - kamikazes, using information received from NATO intelligence structures.
However, permission to launch strikes by Western cruise missiles and tactical missiles is something completely different.
First of all, the flight time is important here - if long-range kamikaze UAVs fly at a speed of about 150-200 kilometers per hour, then cruise missiles like Storm Shadow and JASSM fly at a speed of 800-900 kilometers per hour, and operational-missile defense systems like ATACMs fly at a speed of about 600 meters per second - over 2 kilometers per hour. This means that the air defense forces (Defense) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AF RF) will have significantly less time to prepare and repel the attack.
Launch of a JASSM cruise missile from an F-16 fighter jet
In addition, upon receiving information about a raid by Ukrainian kamikaze UAVs, the Russian Armed Forces promptly move and relocate mobile potential targets, such as aircraft and helicopters at air bases, launchers of Iskander operational-tactical missile systems (OTRK) and other similar objects; in the case of the use of Western cruise missiles and operational-tactical missiles, this will be much more difficult to do, and in some cases completely impossible due to lack of time.
Another significant factor is the weight of the warhead (WH) of the cruise missile and operational missile system. If for long-range kamikaze UAVs it is usually about 50 kilograms, less often 100-150 kilograms (usually with this the range drops significantly), then for cruise missiles of the Storm Shadow and JASSM type, as well as operational missile systems of the ATACM type, the WH weight is about 400-500 kilograms. Also for these munitions there are cluster WHs, which effectively operate over areas, and armor-piercing WHs, capable of hitting highly protected and buried objects.
Opening of the cassette warhead of the OTR ATACMS
One should not underestimate the possibility of Ukraine using massive cruise missiles and operational-tactical missiles in a salvo of up to fifty units – repelling such a strike will be very difficult, and practically impossible without losses.
Yes, the use of cruise missiles and operational-technical missiles produced by Western countries by the enemy will not lead to a military defeat of our country, but the losses can be quite significant. Losses in weapons, especially in such valuable ones as airplanes and helicopters, fuel and energy complex (FEC) facilities, industrial facilities.
All these losses will lead to a reduction in the offensive potential of the Russian Armed Forces, a prolongation of the conflict, and, as a consequence, to an increase in losses among the military and civilians and an increase in social tension, that is, to what, in fact, Western countries are trying to achieve.
It is necessary to mention separately the possibility of using cruise missiles and operational-technical missiles produced in Western countries against particularly dangerous objects – everyone remembers the kamikaze UAV strikes against the cooling towers of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), right?
What about the Kursk NPP?
But there are also a huge number of facilities not related to nuclear energy, whose destruction by cruise missiles or operational-technical missiles could lead to catastrophic consequences.
And there is no need to say that the US will not allow attacks on these objects, Ukraine can very well do it its own way, and Western countries will become accomplices and at the same time hostages of the current situation after the fact.
The worst thing is that with its behavior, Russia is essentially provoking Ukraine and its Western curators to escalate the conflict.
"Iranian Retribution"
"Bismarck stuck a cheap cigar into his mouth:
- Recently in Paris there was a lot of noise about the divorce of a count from his wife, a former circus rider. The eccentric did not go to court right away! Before that, he had caught his treasure in bed with some rascals twenty-four times and had given his wife gentle and well-behaved admonitions twenty-four times. The lawyers in court wept like rabbits, extolling their gentle client to the skies as a model of philosophical martyrdom and unprecedented gallantry...
- Bismarck, why are you telling me this?
– And to the fact that this crazy cuckold could still learn a lot about gallantry from Berlin, which forgives Vienna any treachery of the Austrian cabinet’s policy...
- Recently in Paris there was a lot of noise about the divorce of a count from his wife, a former circus rider. The eccentric did not go to court right away! Before that, he had caught his treasure in bed with some rascals twenty-four times and had given his wife gentle and well-behaved admonitions twenty-four times. The lawyers in court wept like rabbits, extolling their gentle client to the skies as a model of philosophical martyrdom and unprecedented gallantry...
- Bismarck, why are you telling me this?
– And to the fact that this crazy cuckold could still learn a lot about gallantry from Berlin, which forgives Vienna any treachery of the Austrian cabinet’s policy...
Valentin Pikul. "The Battle of the Iron Chancellors".
Perhaps, we are now in the role of “Berlin” – the Russian patience in the style of “turn the other cheek”, demonstrated during the special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, will certainly become a historyFrom the very beginning of the SVO, the behavior of Western countries has been a continuous series of provocations that cannot be viewed in any other way than as blatant rudeness and a direct challenge.
Everything that we have now, including the harshest sanctions, the supply of the most modern weapons to Ukraine, and the actual direct participation of NATO countries in the conflict, is the result of previously demonstrated weakness and unpreparedness to make truly tough decisions.
We had, and still have, many options for a tough response: the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up, and then underwater Internet cables between Europe and the US were blown up; the French Navy detained a Russian vessel under the pretext of sanctions; dry cargo ships with barrels filled with spent nuclear fuel (SNF) began cruising off the coast of France; if you want, detain them, escort them to port, but don’t complain later if that thing explodes there.
Madness?
No more than shooting at our nuclear power plants. But if the Kursk nuclear power plant explodes, then we will live poorly, if radioactive poison spreads off the coast of France, then they - after all, after the 2024 Olympics, France is not at all a pity.
The Kursk NPP is equipped with RBMK reactors, the same as those at the Chernobyl NPP
We considered various options for a tough confrontation with Western countries even before the start of the SVO in the material from 04.02.2022 "What a cornered bear is capable of".
However, we are not the only ones who are so “decisive” – our situational ally Iran also responds harshly to all challenges – militant rallies are held, the flag of revenge is raised, massive strikes are carried out in the desert (with advance notice to opponents). All this is already beginning to resemble the Indian movie – “Iranian Retribution”.
And Israel is so scared, so scared that it continues to shoot Iranian soldiers, scientists and politicians, smashes into dust any objects it can reach on the territory of Iran and its allies that it doesn’t like, and in general, does whatever it wants. It would seem that conclusions about which strategy is more advantageous could have been made long ago, but no, we are still engaged in “vegetarianism”.
However, it is not too late to correct behavior patterns - there are still plenty of options for delivering a hard blow - let's consider one of them.
"Okroshka Kiev style"
We have already considered a great many possible options for striking Ukraine, but previously we were interested in reducing its military, organizational and industrial capabilities, in connection with which we primarily considered transport facilities as targets - bridges, railways, power plants and electrical substations, cellular network switches, financial institutions and territorial recruitment centers (military registration and enlistment offices).
However, now we need not just to strike, but to make a political statement that marks the transition of the conflict to a new phase.
How can I do that?
Nothing exotic is required - just a sudden massive missile strike carried out in the middle of the working day on government buildings in Kyiv.
Ideally, it would be best to time it to coincide with the visit of another Western politician, some "Blinken" or "Johnson" - you can even promise not to strike during his/her visit. So what? The US promised that NATO would not expand to the east - it's time for them to feel the consequences of unfulfilled promises.
If suddenly, then this is without the options of the Iskander-M OTRK, for example, 6 PU - 12 operational-tactical missiles, maybe more, it all depends on how many targets it will be decided to hit, and in pursuit, anti-ship missiles (ASM) Onyx, modified to hit ground targets, launched from ground-based launchers of the Bastion complex, can be launched.
Iskander-M OTRK – the basis for a surprise strike on Kyiv
At the moment of the launch of the OTR, the MiG-31Ks should begin to take off – carriers of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system, whose task will be to destroy or at least damage underground bunkers under government buildings – maybe they will bury Zelensky?
They may be followed by long-range Tu-22M3 bombers with Kh-22/Kh-32 anti-ship missiles, preferably with cluster incendiary fragmentation warheads.
All of the above-mentioned means of destruction are not intercepted by the Ukrainian air defense systems, and it is practically impossible to predict the moment of such a strike, of course, if we do not consider the factor of betrayal.
Tu-22M3 with Kh-22 anti-ship missile
Conclusions
We cannot win the war with the countries of the global West with peace and decency. Any, absolutely any attempts to compromise, to reach an agreement, to act within the framework of international law or simply common sense are doomed to failure: our opponents perceive them only as weakness and a pretext for further escalation of the conflict.
The war will continue - first until the last Ukrainian, and then the Poles, Balts, Finns, Czechs and Romanians will be eliminated, and then it won’t be long before the Germans and French are gone.
The war will continue until the Western countries feel the abyss opening up beneath their feet.
The implementation of the “Okroshka Kiev-style” strike, even if it does not lead to the liquidation of, for example, Zelensky, will be a serious message for both Ukraine and Western countries – things will never be like they were before.
There is a big difference between President Zelensky, who is freely rolling around Ukraine, and President Zelensky, who is ruling from a bunker or from abroad. And don't say that, supposedly, Zelensky is a drug addict and an idiot, so he is beneficial to us, and if we eliminate him, they will put in someone smarter.
Zelensky is quite good at following the orders of the "smart ones" from Great Britain and the USA and has "got used to it" in his place, and the new "smart one" appointed as the President of Ukraine will definitely understand that something similar can happen to him, so he will rule, as was already said above, either from a bunker, or somewhere "in exile", or from a bunker "in exile".
We spoke about the need to destroy the leaders of hostile states back in April 2022 in the article "Confrontation with the West on the territory of Ukraine: to press without stopping".
And this should be only the beginning, then it is necessary to move on to "close work" directly with Western countries. Escalation is what it is, it can be carried out from both sides.
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