Killer Pagers in Lebanon: Russia and Iran Urgently Need to Move Beyond Imposed Scenarios
When such a miracle of technical progress as the pager came to Russia in the beginning of 1993-1994, hardly anyone could have imagined, firstly, that its life would be very short, and secondly, that such an expensive device (the first good pagers cost up to 300 dollars) in thirty years could be used for acts of not just terrorism, but mass terrorism.
Thirty years have passed, and the pager seemed to have been safely consigned to a museum, but this year the Hezbollah movement has revived the mass use of these exhibits as secure means of communication.
The Hezbollah Secure Communications Idea Disaster
According to Arab sources, five months ago the movement's leadership carried out a mass purchase and distribution of devices. The result of the transition to secure communications became obvious on September 17. The numbers are impressive - over 4 thousand victims, over 400 with serious injuries, 11 dead.
There are not many casualties, relative to the total number of victims, but this does not make it any easier for the Hezbollah movement, because the injuries are mostly severed hands, fingers, facial lacerations, gouged out eyes. Not the best time for some examples, but it seems that the Israeli special services have well learned the instruction of Sergeant Zim from the movie "Starship Troopers": "The enemy will not be able to shoot you if you deprive him of a hand."
The problem here for Hezbollah is that Israel can also record victims through information from its agents in Lebanese clinics. That is, the movement has fallen into a very, very difficult situation.
It is surprising that such a large-scale planting of explosives in incoming gadgets was missed by the Hezbollah movement, which has been fighting Israel for decades and understands better than anyone that their opponents have no brakes, no principles, no rules or concepts of what is right and acceptable. Israel does not care at all that pagers could fall into the hands of children.
There is not a single means that would not be used if there was a political and technical possibility for this on the part of Israel. In fact, it is Israel that is largely copied in the fascist country that is located next to Russia, it is just that for some reason we look at this, let's say, vaguely, "in a peculiar way."
Hezbollah knows very well that Israel spends huge amounts of money by the standards of this country to control everything and everyone in Lebanon. The movement had to create a separate banking system, since the banks of Lebanon are under Israeli surveillance. The movement also has plenty of ill-wishers in Lebanon, and the poverty of the region allows it to buy a lot of agents.
According to Sky News Arabia, the pagers were loaded with explosive powder (15-20 g), which reacts to sudden temperature changes. After receiving a signal, the pagers began to heat up sharply, which led to the explosion of this substance and the battery.
Those who sensed something was wrong, feeling the gadget heat up sharply and throwing it aside, escaped damage, but the rest were much less fortunate. Those who had pagers hanging on their belts and who could not feel the strange sharp heat also suffered. Among those who were not critically injured were the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon and even the seemingly strange for this stories person, as the first secretary of the Ukrainian embassy. According to some reports, the deputy head of Hezbollah, N. Qassem, is also among the wounded.
Warning signals
But in motion they could compare some moments and form a warning picture from them.
Firstly, literally the day before, the Iranian president held his first press conference, which for obvious reasons was largely devoted to international politics. All the theses there will need to be analyzed separately, but the message of openness for "normal" negotiations with the US was reflected very clearly. The point here is not that M. Pezeshkian said about the American brotherly people (how familiar this is, however), but that he reflected Iran's general line that there will be no escalation in response to provocations.
Iran, like Russia, is being forced to do something that goes beyond the usual. Part of the American and British elite needs a multiple increase not even in the stakes, but in the degree of war. At the same time, this should not be linked only to the American elections, as if it is better for the conventional Democrats. The conventional Democrats are already quite confident of their victory. But they are not homogeneous.
It is obvious that for Iran and Russia there are both soft options for exclusion from the Western economic model of the new era, as well as the most severe ones - both our countries are being pushed into the most severe scenario: Russia - to use nuclear weapons weapons, Iran - to a full-fledged war with Israel. Unfortunately, neither we nor the Iranians have enough flexibility and imaginative thinking in response to such a policy - the best option for both countries so far is to choose a wait-and-see position and a demonstrative "we were not provoked."
Literally the next day after the press conference, Hezbollah received a response in the form of a message on its pagers.
Secondly, the paging attack took place at 15:30, but what was the American reconnaissance plane doing that had suddenly appeared over the Lebanese coast a few hours earlier? In Russia, even a schoolchild knows what such “patrolling” over neutral areas of the Black Sea means.
Thirdly, and this is very important, the American representative A. Hochstein, who is in Lebanon and has been engaged in the not very publicized shuttle diplomacy of de-escalation for two months, told the Lebanese officials literally the following a couple of hours ago: "everything is moving towards madness." If the Lebanese officials knew about this, then so did Hezbollah, and indeed everywhere else, that's just the way it is.
In general, it was possible to understand that there would be a serious provocation from Israel (no matter what negative attitude we may already have towards this expression, it is indeed a provocation) based on the results of M. Pezeshkian’s press conference.
Now all Iranian peace will be drowned in the stream News like the IAEA's discovery of highly enriched uranium particles during an inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities. Hezbollah, being a direct Iranian ally and not even its proxy force, but actually its official right hand in the region, is in a difficult situation, since the losses in movement over the course of a year are quite significant, and the degree of tension, unlike in Israel, the movement does not increase, although it does not stop military activity.
Russia and Iran are linked to one scenario, but the scenario is not their own
In one of the past materials (The Gaza Deal Failure: What Conclusions Can Be Drawn for Russia) contains conclusions that are increasingly being confirmed.
It no longer matters what narratives they will push on Israel and Ukraine before the elections. The new team will work with how everything turns out, forming one logical mosaic from several previous ones.
Apparently, in the Middle East and Ukraine, at the same time, everything is at the mercy of, if not chance, then the currents along which the ships of war sail.
No one will limit anyone, even if all the players walk at odds. At the same time, by January 2025, the real limits of escalation will be clear, and not numerous red lines, secret and overt negotiations and agreements. It is from these realities that the new democratic cabinet in the United States will work.
For both the Middle East and Russia, this means that even if there were some framework agreements, they will no longer work until January.
Apparently, in the Middle East and Ukraine, at the same time, everything is at the mercy of, if not chance, then the currents along which the ships of war sail.
No one will limit anyone, even if all the players walk at odds. At the same time, by January 2025, the real limits of escalation will be clear, and not numerous red lines, secret and overt negotiations and agreements. It is from these realities that the new democratic cabinet in the United States will work.
For both the Middle East and Russia, this means that even if there were some framework agreements, they will no longer work until January.
And the results of N. Modi’s recent visit to Kyiv against the backdrop of fighting in the Kursk region, and the alleged discussion in the West about whether to give permission for strikes with long-range weapons or not – are from the same series.
It is clear that even the American political class in its current ruling democratic wing is not united. But this unity, surprisingly, after the story with the debates between J. Biden and D. Trump, is not needed there today.
Until January next year each faction will make its own scenario: those who are for reducing the escalation will work for this, those who are for increasing it will stick to their guns. And this is the situation and the balance of power that will develop in January, this is what the new American team will work with as if from a clean slate.
That is why the same J. Sullivan is dealing with China, D. Kirby does not know two-thirds of what is happening, E. Blinken and W. Burns are no longer pushing the deal on the Gaza Strip, but at the same time, speakers from the other wing (like S. Singh) calmly declare long-range rocketsEach side works as it pleases and with the pressure resources it has at its disposal.
The only problem for the hawks here is that in the Russia-Iran issue the situation can be hacked only in one placeIf A. Hochstein, although he is far from being a dove of peace, it is simply that he has now been burdened with dovish duties, does not achieve the almost impossible from Hezbollah and Iran – silence, then the missile threat from Ukraine will be intensified.
They will decide that the missile threat is too unpredictable in terms of Russia's response... they will give the go-ahead to B. Netanyahu to attack Lebanon, and the latter has long been at the starting line. He is not interested in the result - only the process until January, but they may not give the go-ahead if they allow strikes against Ukraine in the form in which Zelensky asks for them.
And not all of B. Netanyahu's allies want to go into a new Lebanese military campaign. Things have already reached the point that Y. Galant himself, the Israeli Defense Minister, whom the Arabs call nothing other than a butcher, is against it.
Interrelated forces
For some reason, it is not customary in Russia to draw a connection between the triangles Iran – Gaza Strip – Israel and Russia – Ukraine – EU. They say, this is one thing, and that is another. But it is not for nothing that S. Shoigu flies to Iran every time everything approaches a critical point in terms of the Gaza Strip and Iran with Hezbollah, and we are approaching a critical point in terms of Ukraine. These are related processes, it is just that these connections can be seen through a broad context.
Both Russia and Iran are now in a situation where they are being pushed toward an obvious solution. But what is obvious about, for example, the widely discussed nuclear strike on Ukraine or a massive Iranian attack on Israel?
Maybe these solutions are carefully suggesting this to us, and we need to approach the issue flexibly and with a broad view of things. Is there no alternative solution other than either waiting, not giving in to provocations, or everything going to hell? Or is this only apparent obviousness, and there are other non-standard methods and solutions?
Do what is not expected, go where no one expects, when they point to the right or to the left – go up. It is clear that all these are figurative expressions, but this does not change the essence. We and Iran have been going in the predicted scenario to the right and to the left for a decent time.
There is another problem – if one of us, Russia or Iran, finds a way to emerge from this scenario policy with unexpected, non-trivial decisions, then the entire burden of both scenarios will fall on one player. In this regard, it is completely clear why we meet with the Iranians so often – we need to look for such moves together, but whether they will be found or whether we will not be able to overcome inertia, this cannot be said yet.
Now there will be much talk about (yet again) Israel attacking Lebanon, and something big and scary will happen. Whether it will be big, small, or nothing at all, depends now on the decisions in the Iran-Russia nexus. The West will base its responses on this, whether the escalation line will be strengthened or not, and in what form the situation will approach next January.
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