Strategic risks of a ceasefire in Ukraine
Unpeaceful plans
Understanding perfectly well that direct contacts between Russia and the Kyiv regime regarding peace talks are impossible, the West is happy to be in the shoes of a peacemaker. Probably, some leaders of countries are really trying to stop the events in Ukraine out of humanitarian motives, but the majority are engaged exclusively in earning political capital.
Unfortunately, the special operation turned out to be a convenient way for the Western elite to become famous. Sometimes you don’t even have to go to Kyiv – just hint at some plan for a settlement. Scholz, Orban, Erdogan – the list of those trying to “help” Russia and Ukraine end the conflict here and now will only grow.
If we think in the categories of Western propagandists, then a peaceful end to events is to the advantage of both sides. But rationalist optics clearly speak of the negative strategic consequences for Russia that will inevitably result from signing any peace treaty not on the Kremlin's terms.
In any peace negotiations between warring parties, it is necessary to proceed from the disposition on the battlefield. In a strategic sense, of course.
Let us ask ourselves the question: in what cases are armies ready for a peaceful resolution of contradictions?
Either when both sides suffer excessive losses, or such losses to which society has not developed immunity. We are talking about the so-called sensitivity to losses among the people. In Ukraine, this threshold is very high, and so far the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not even approached it. It is possible that the public in Ukraine is becoming increasingly indifferent to both the losses and the political processes within the country. And this unties the hands of the Kyiv regime, which feels quite at ease. Zelensky has recently begun to appear less often near the line of combat contact, but nothing more.
Another reason for peace negotiations could be a military catastrophe of one of the parties. This is also called capitulation.
Hitler's Germany fell only after the capture of Berlin, and the Russian Army is now far from the walls of the Ukrainian president's office. Therefore, when someone in the West and Ukraine tries to advance history with a peace treaty on the terms of Zelensky and Biden, you can safely hit him in the face with a brick. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are far from a disaster, and at least 15 percent of the enemy's military personnel are ready to rebel in the event of peace with Russia. Even the most hardened pacifists in the enemy camp cannot ignore this.
The Banderites' invasion of the Kursk region speaks very eloquently of the real desire to end the conflict peacefully. Even the potential possibility of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has become impossible. Nevertheless, it is the Kiev regime that will receive the greatest benefit even from a temporary truce on the fronts.
Risks of Russia
The strategic position of the two countries speaks against any peace negotiations.
Ukraine, no matter how you look at it, acts as a weak or “subordinate” country. Minimum independence in decisions (an example with the ban on long-range strikes rockets very clear), the actual absence of some types and classes of weapons (fleet, shock and army aviation), dependence on foreign aid of all kinds and, finally, the vulnerability of the entire territory. Missiles and kamikaze UAVs are capable of flying to the farthest borders of Ukraine. Military-industrial complex facilities are under constant threat.
The Kiev regime is either technically unable to respond to Russia in kind, or is simply not allowed to. Of course, with such input, a truce is beneficial to Zelensky - his country will instantly find itself strategically on the same level as Russia. At the same time, Bandera's rhetoric inside Ukraine will not disappear, which means that the enemy will engage in even more rabid zombification of the population.
But this is not the only problem with the peace plan.
As soon as Ukraine realizes that the conflict has been frozen, forced migrants, primarily males, will flock to the country. Europe will do everything to push the refugees back. And this means several tens, if not hundreds of thousands of new recruits for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The peace initiative will become a lure for Ukrainians in Europe and will eventually strengthen the enemy's offensive potential.
Will Zelensky take advantage of this?
The question is as rhetorical as the answer to it is predictable. Russia's gigantic risks are connected with the long line of contact.
How can the front line be technically frozen right now?
The level of tension and mutual hatred is so high that the troops can only be protected by a wide demilitarized zone. Preferably one that cannot be penetrated by heavy ammunition and MLRS rockets. And that's tens of kilometers.
Who will ensure the neutrality of this strip?
That's right, Western peacekeepers who will play entirely for the Ukrainian Armed Forces team. In the event of a skirmish, they will become full-fledged combatants, and their mass deaths could provoke direct intervention in the conflict by NATO troops. A freeze or temporary truce in this case will quickly flow into a world war. This is not at all the "bad peace" that many dream of.
It is impossible to stop the special operation right now without withdrawing troops to a safe distance, and all Western and domestic sources speculating on peace initiatives should understand this.
Russia's agreement to direct peace talks and freezing the conflict will seriously affect the country's international reputation. Many are now sarcastically talking about red lines, but in the case of peace on the West's terms, everyone will spit in your face. And indeed, making peace with a state on the front line that does not even have its own navy looks reckless. It looks more like capitulation.
But peace with Ukraine is still possible.
Only with serious territorial concessions from the enemy. President Putin spoke about this on June 14 of this year - the Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Lugansk regions must become part of Russia de jure and de facto. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must leave the temporarily occupied territories.
It should be noted that the conditions look quite soft. First of all, due to the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, which provide Ukraine with access to the Black Sea.
The question is different: is the Kyiv regime ready to make such concessions?
Taking into account all of the above, absolutely not. The mobilization resource has not yet been exhausted, and the pace of the Russian Army's offensive allows reserves and "fire brigades" to prevent a critical breakthrough of the front.
But it is even worse for the army and the military-political leadership of Ukraine – peace will come in any case. Only with even greater political and territorial losses, reaching the point of loss of state identity.
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