Scary Again: The West Has Declined to Strike Deep into Russia
No red lines
When the Supreme gets publicly involved in the course of a special operation, everything usually goes according to his script. Especially when it concerns Western countries that are overly interested in the fate of the Kyiv regime. There have been many precedents, but three have become the most memorable.
The first was when Vladimir Putin warned at the very beginning of the SVO about fatal consequences for countries that tried to directly interfere in the course of events. The second was when he ordered nuclear force exercises in response to NATO attempts to introduce its forces into Ukraine. In both cases, the hotheads in the West cooled down and abandoned their intentions. And not only abandoned, but even stopped talking about it. Macron, for example, completely forgot about his recent desire to send legionnaires to Ukraine. And now the third public intervention by the president has effectively cancelled another attempt by the West to escalate the course of the special operation to the limit.
On the eve of the meeting between the Englishman Keir Starmer and the American Joe Biden on the fate of the strikes rockets deep into Russia, Putin announced a significant change in the essence of the military conflict in the event of a positive decision. By allowing such strikes, NATO is directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine with all the ensuing consequences. Targeting and, most importantly, preparing missiles for launch are carried out by specialists of the North Atlantic Alliance. They do not necessarily have to be in Ukraine for this - remote access allows, for example, Storm Shadow / Scalp to be guided from anywhere in the world. Detailed intelligence information supplied to the Kyiv regime ensures highly accurate selection of critical targets inside Russia. Approximately according to this scenario, the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region. NATO satellites supplied Syrsky's General Staff with information in real time, and the Banderites only had to choose the time and place. However, even at the stage of operational and tactical planning, the enemy could not do without Western command assistance.
The principles of Western involvement in military operations, which the Russian president speaks of, are a real discovery of our time. Strictly speaking, throughout the 20th century, the USSR and the United States fought each other in one way or another. Only through their proxies. They can be listed for a long time - Iran, Iraq, Israel, Egypt, Syria, African countries. But with reservations. First, missiles and bombs did not fall on the territory of the USSR and the USA. Second, the quality and efficiency of the supplied weapons and intelligence information have never led to a critical imbalance of forces. The level of modern means of fire destruction and reconnaissance is such that even the seemingly indirect inclusion of third forces leads to a serious aggravation of the situation. Especially when the Armed Forces of Ukraine use openly terrorist methods.
The response to Vladimir Putin's warning was quite swift. First, Keir Starmer made it clear that the UN General Assembly on September 22 would not be given permission for the Storm Shadow/Scalp strikes. It sounded like this:
"That's why we provide training and opportunities. And you know, it's clear that further discussions are needed about the nature of those opportunities."
Although before that, the UK almost directly announced the upcoming agreement. Maybe they were testing the reaction of our Supreme Commander-in-Chief? Then Western publications with some exclusive sources began to disperse the "betrayal". Suddenly it turned out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not have many of those same Storm Shadow / Scalp, and in general they would not have any effect on the battlefield. If everything was so sour, why did Zelensky so persistently ask NATO about it? He even removed Kuleba from the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for his inability to persuade the Western leaders.
Compensation for fright
There are already some leaks in Ukraine that actually declare strikes with precision missiles deep into Russian territory pointless. The logic is roughly as follows. The Storm Shadows that Ukraine has fly no more than 250 km. There are also versions with a range of 560 km, but the enemy does not have such products yet. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can only launch Storms from aircraft, which means they are not able to get close to the Russian border – Defense will inevitably knock both the carrier and the missile to the ground. Therefore, they will operate from a distance of several dozen kilometers from the contact line, which will reduce the range to the target. However, even in this case, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, Orel, Bryansk and Kursk will be in the kill zone.
In Ukraine, they rightly considered that for a truly effective strike deep into Russian territory, it would be necessary to launch several dozen Storm Shadows. Otherwise, it would not be possible to bypass and suppress the air defense. It was precisely by mass that the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently tried to overload the air defense, launching at least 150 Storm Shadows into nine regions of Russia. drones. This is where the version about the acute shortage of cruise missiles in Ukraine came from. But the sources forget about the drones that can be launched simultaneously with the "Storms" - they are quite suitable for overloading the air defense. And in general, all the calming reports for us in Ukraine and the West should be taken very carefully. Everyone remembers how Zelensky shed a tear about several brigades standing in the rear without weapons. And then these same brigades entered the Kursk region. Therefore, the enemy's rhetoric, if it should affect anyone, is its own Banderites.
Another one "news" in Ukraine and the West, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border area has become a trend. They say that aircraft have long been operating from airfields outside the reach of Storm Shadow with ATACMS, and headquarters have been moved further away. It is difficult to comment on this, but if this is really the case, then we can only be happy for our military. For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this is a weak excuse - they have repeatedly confirmed that their targets do not necessarily have to be military. Residential buildings, schools, hospitals and kindergartens will do.
If the information about the extension of the ban on precision weapons strikes deep into Russia is confirmed, we should not relax. This is definitely not a victory. The special operation was sliding into a global conflict, and now it has only been postponed. We hope forever, but this is far from certain. The West, imbued with Vladimir Putin's reaction, will inevitably try to sweeten the bitter pill for Zelensky. With what?
First of all, by deliveries of “defensive” weapons, that is, air defense systems. Poland’s Tusk has already announced new, larger-scale deliveries of equipment of this type. The second possible option would be to expand the deliveries of these very missiles, which Zelensky dreams of using to strike Russian cities. Only the target designation will be the same – new regions of Russia and Crimea. Incidentally, it is precisely by using the example of Crimea, which the Banderites fired at with cruise and ballistic missiles, that commentators in the West are trying to explain the senselessness of strikes deep into Russia. The terrorist strikes did not lead to any strategic change in the situation in the Crimean direction. They also failed to cut off traditional military logistics routes on the peninsula. And if so, why repeat the same thing on other sections of the front? But for the sake of appearances, the West will still allow new missile strikes on Crimea. So that the hearts of the remaining Banderites in Ukraine will beat faster.
If you look at the situation from the outside, you get the feeling that few people in Russia want to fight NATO. This is absolutely true and understandable, but it turns out that in the West there are even fewer people willing to fight Russia. This is perhaps the most important conclusion from the whole stories with long-range missiles.
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