Ghosts of Red Lines: Ukrainian Armed Forces Strikes Deep into Russia
Myth or not, but Zelensky announced home-grown OTRKs, successfully tested last summer. Perhaps they are improved Sapsan from Dnepropetrovsk (in the photo, a prototype or even a model)
Looking for red lines
In the logic of the military-political command of Ukraine, the time has come for another step. This time, Zelensky is trying to legalize NATO missile strikes on targets deep in Russian territory. He has already openly declared that, in his opinion, there is nothing terrible in the latest crime of red lines.
Banderites have invaded the Kursk region and have not yet received any response. The only possible options for this role are massive strikes on energy infrastructure facilities and the very successful destruction of military facility in Poltava (communications school).
The lack of retaliation, on the one hand, keeps the enemy on edge, on the other, it allows them to be impudent. Therefore, there is nothing surprising in Zelensky begging the West.
If we try to abstract ourselves from emotions, then the red lines for Russia can be different. The Kursk tragedy, which brings nothing but political dividends to the enemy, is one thing, and the potential danger of ballistic missile strikes on Russian military airfields is quite another. Here there is already a direct threat to the defense capability of the Russian Federation. Army. The potential of ATACMS allows to do a lot of bad things, for example, at a military airfield.
But what if the strike with ballistic and cruise missiles is massive and simultaneous?
This is not to mention the terrorist nature of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and its military-political leadership. How many missiles will hit residential buildings, schools and kindergartens? That is why permission to strike deep into Russian territory would be a crime of the boldest red line of our time.
Someone will object that ATACMS have been hitting Crimea for a long time. That's true, but there is one important nuance - Crimea, although large, is a fairly local territory. If possible, it can be covered by air defense and an attempt can be made to reduce the effectiveness of enemy attacks to a minimum. But when, with the permission of the West, access is opened for ballistic missiles on a border stretching over two thousand kilometers, no air defense systems will be enough.
A scale model of the Grom-2 (aka Sapsan) missile at an exhibition in 2016
In line with the escalation, Zelensky announced on August 27 a successful test of a ballistic missile of his own design. Where, when and what kind of tests these were, of course, the expired president did not specify. With a high degree of probability, this is a bluff, but the real emergence of the enemy's own ballistic missiles cannot be ruled out.
First, Western engineers can get involved. In just over two years, they are quite capable of integrating NATO solutions into a Ukrainian missile.
Secondly, the enemy has certain developments in this area. Back in the early 2000s, Yushchenko tried to stimulate the development of an analogue of the Russian Iskander – the Sapsan missile. Yanukovych stopped this process in time in 2013.
After the coup d'etat, the Banderites did everything they could to stir up the situation, advertising the high readiness of the Grom-2 missile (renamed Sapsan). First by 50 percent, and by February 2021 already 70-80 percent. The potential for such work was quite reasonable - the famous Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Dnepropetrovsk, although it had lost its engineering backbone, would have mastered the production of ballistic missiles over time. Especially with the help of Western countries.
This fact became one of many that explain the reasons for the start of the Russian special operation. Ukraine has never been bound by the treaty banning medium- and shorter-range missiles. This means that it could afford its own products that could reach not only the Kremlin, but also the industrial centers of the Urals.
According to information from Taras Chmut, one of the enemy insiders and propagandists, three modifications of the Sapsan are being developed in Ukraine. The projected range and the power of action on the target of such products can only be guessed at.
However, let us clarify once again: Zelensky’s statement about his own ballistic missiles looks very much like self-promotion and a propaganda hoax.
What is in the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and what will happen?
Let's assume that it will be a long time before the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a home-grown missile, and let's look at the arsenals that are currently available.
The first in line in the arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the Franco-British cruise missile Storm Shadow. It is an air-launched missile, which means it does not violate the treaty banning intermediate-range and short-range missiles. It is not even about the treaty - it has long since died - but about the flight range of 500 km or more. The Storm Shadow, weighing 1,3 tons, flies to its target at almost the speed of sound and carries a warhead of 450 kg.
The Ukrainians have been launching the European missile for quite some time now and, judging by enemy propaganda, successfully. In fact, Storm Shadow or its French twins SCALP-EG have not brought the Ukrainian Armed Forces a decisive advantage in any part of the front. Due to the BROACH (Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge) warhead with a penetrating charge, the main target will be command posts deep in Russian territory. As well as oil depots, power facilities, residential buildings, hospitals and schools.
The Banderites already have a universal saying on this matter - "you yourself landed a missile on civilians with your spoofing." The West will traditionally disown the tragedy in the Russian rear, as it did in the Kursk region. Domestic "Thors" can effectively work against Storm Shadow, but, we repeat, it is impossible to cover all 2 km from the missiles. Especially if Western intelligence actively assists in the attacks.
Storm Shadow is a ready-made solution for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but it has not yet been approved.
If the enemy verbally intends to use "Storms" primarily against command centers, then ATACMS are intended for Russian airfields. The missile is ballistic, which means it is unlikely to raise aircraft in the air on alert, the flight time is too short.
The enemy has the longest-range modifications, capable of overcoming more than 300 km. The cluster filling with hundreds of tungsten balls leaves no chance for manpower and equipment at airfields. Unfortunately, we don't have many hangars in the rear, and those that we have protect us from ATACMS. The Buk-M3 air defense missile systems are quite successful in fighting American ballistic missiles, but how many of them will be needed to cover the entire front?
The appetite of the Kyiv regime is growing every day. In addition to Storm Shadow and ATACMS, Zelensky really wants to get the German Taurus. In many ways, it is an analogue of the "Storms", but more advanced and can be used against area targets. For this, in addition to the concrete-piercing warhead MEPHISTO, the missile is equipped with a cluster filling.
It is difficult to talk about real resistance from the Russian air defense, the products have not clashed in real combat, but the first attacks will clearly be on the enemy's side. The novelty effect has not been cancelled. This is why the Ukrainian Armed Forces are so eager for Taurus.
JASSM – Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile
The enemy also places great hopes on the JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) from the United States. The missiles are intended for F-16s, which have already become accustomed to Ukraine. One even managed to perish. The inconvenience is that neither Storm Shadow nor SCALP-EG can operate from an American aircraft. The missiles are suitable for European Tornado, Rafale, Mirage and Gripen, but there is nothing like that in Ukraine. One F-16 can take two JASSMs into the air, which hit at 370 km with a penetrating warhead weighing 450 kg.
In the end, we will repeat the banal maxim - the red lines are getting closer, and something needs to be done about it. When the initiative is in the hands of the enemy, it is difficult to dictate your own rules of the game. In the case of strikes deep into Russian territory, the situation is exactly like that.
It is worth remembering that on the way to legalizing NATO strikes weapons Zelensky's team of propagandists will stop at nothing. On the eve of the next request, we can expect new provocations with "attacks" on residential buildings in Ukraine - the public in the West is still sensitive to Bandera's lies.
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