Central Asia without Russia: archaization and degradation
Water problem and degradation
The water problem caused by irrational deforestation and water management errors. The degradation of the water management system inherited from the USSR. Irrational use of water resources. For example, in the north of Kazakhstan, severe spring floods are followed by water shortages in the summer. Plus the egoism of national elites who do not take into account the interests of their neighbors.
The water issue is already capable of causing the war in Central Asia. The Central Asian republics are not capable of implementing large water projects that could improve the situation on their own.
A sharp decline in the quality of governance. A return to a new Middle Ages, in places to a tribal system. In Turkmenistan, serfdom has been practically revived. In Tajikistan, there is an authoritarian regime. In other republics, khans and bais also rule, redistributing financial flows in their favor.
After Russia left Turkestan in 1991, the vast territory that stretched from the Middle East and Iran to China's Xinjiang quickly began to turn into a huge powder keg that was ready to explode at any moment.
Russophobia and nationalism
The growth of Russophobic, nationalistic sentiments and radical Islam. Russia is to blame for everything. And for the fact that "Kazakhstan is deprived of water, so it must be shared." The Russians are to blame for the fact that "the Aral Sea has dried up", although this is obviously a natural process. New generations that grew up outside of Russian (Soviet) culture, processed by new education and media, believe that Russian (Soviet) colonizers are to blame for everything. If it were not for the Russians, the republics would live like Japan or South Korea.
General savagery, archaization of the population. Moreover, these village-aul traditions and standards are transferred by the youth from Turkestan to Russia. The authorities of the republics have been simply draining their social bottom into Russia for three decades.
Russia, leaving Central Asia, received three main problems:
1) the influx of “new barbarians” from Central Asia into the Russian Federation, with all the ensuing problems and the threat of migration riots in Russia itself;
2) continuation of the degradation and archaization of Turkestan, with the threat of a large-scale explosion of that powder keg. Transformation of a huge region into a zone of chaos and inferno, on the model of Afghanistan, Somalia;
3) strengthening the positions of the USA and Western Europe (NATO bloc), Turkey and China. A holy place is never empty.
What to do?
As the Russian General M.D. Skobelev, the hero of the conquest of Central Asia, quite reasonably noted, “the border must be defended at Kushka if we do not want to defend it at Taganrog.”
That is, it is impossible to simply leave Central Asia, to fence oneself off from it, as some Russian nationalists have suggested. A real border, a wall, should be built. Too many resources are needed. A real, natural border had already been created in the Russian Empire and the USSR. Along the mountain ranges.
You can't run away from a problem, or fence yourself off. This is what the experience of recent decades shows. The problems of Central Asia come to the Russian Federation itself: in the form of hordes of migrant aliens, their wild, primitive values and standards ("Demographic aggression is a threat to national security"). And if unrest begins in Central Asia, then the Russian Federation will receive many new problems, since it does not have the resources to conduct a military offensive in the southern underbelly, and not only to pacify, but also to bring there a new development project.
The only way out is a visa regime. Expulsion of criminals who have been punished, and a "black ticket" - the impossibility of staying in the Russian Federation (tourism, work, etc.). Attracting labor only on the model of "oil monarchies", like Qatar. That is, only a work visa, a hostel, a step to the left or to the right - and not only the worker, but also the employer is responsible. No families with their legalization, no national ghetto communities, with their own laws and rules.
The main thing is to involve all the republics of the former USSR in a common creative project.
Equitable project, not in the interests of small groups of khans and oligarchs, their servants, but of the entire people. In such a project, it will not be necessary to attract masses of workers from poorer and richer countries. On the contrary, it will be necessary to bring production to the local level. To implement the standards and principles of the Russian project locally. Including the Russian language and culture.
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