After the Georgian president, together with the political party he led, failed in the parliamentary elections, certain changes appeared in Georgia’s political arena. Bidzina Ivanishvili came to the fore, who occupied the premiership, namely, according to the recently undertaken constitutional changes in Georgia, is now considered the main one in the state. It is quite natural that after the hopeless anti-Russian rhetoric of Mikhail Saakashvili, in Russia itself, the mere fact that Saakashvili was somewhat pushed into the background caused a certain revival, which gave a completely unambiguous positive. The positive diminished somewhat after the new head of the Georgian Cabinet of Ministers again reminded of Georgia’s foreign policy priorities, among which productive relations with Russia, if not, were far from the first, and not even the secondary roles. In addition, the new Georgian government immediately outlined the principles by which Georgia would begin a dialogue with the Russian authorities. In fact, these principles can be called the Georgian ultimatum: they say, if official Moscow wants to renew partnership with official Tbilisi, then let them first fulfill our conditions. The conditions are simple: refuse to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and you will be happy ...
After such conditions, it seemed that relations between Russia and Georgia would again be plunged into the abyss of mutual reproaches, claims and systematic demarches. However, what happened next showed a slightly different picture. The visit to Moscow of the Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II; short-term, but still, contact at one of the international events of the Russian and Georgian prime ministers, reaching agreements on eliminating barriers in bilateral trade, an agreement on the possible easing of the visa regime for Georgian citizens wishing to enter Russia. In general, as the hero of a famous work said: “The ice has broken.”
On the one hand, all this political and commercial ice-breaker leads to positive thoughts. After all, the endless confrontation between the Russian and Georgian peoples clearly does not benefit either Russia, or Georgia, or stability in the Caucasus region as a whole. However, in such a progressive and cautious rapprochement between Russia and Georgia, with a closer look at it, one can also see the pitfalls. And these stones are primarily concerned with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which today show a heightened interest in Russian-Georgian contacts. Why show? Yes, if only because both in Tskhinvali and Sukhumi any attempts at rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi are painful. And you can understand South Ossetia and Abkhazia. On the lips of politicians, both in that and in the other state, the dumb question stood still: do you not throw it at all? .. And the question is well-founded. Modern politics is an ambiguous thing, that's why they ask. It is not that they suspect something, they are simply interested in their future fate, which, to be honest, is solely in the firmness of the position of Russia.
So, in order for the allied states (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to somewhat calm down after the manifested contacts between Moscow and Tbilisi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov had to take part in the matter personally. The head of the foreign ministry directly (which is not typical of diplomats in principle) stated that the Russian Federation is ready to cooperate with the Georgian side in absolutely any areas, but in order to bring the positions of Moscow and Tbilisi closer, they never sacrifice independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
As can be seen, the Russian Foreign Ministry gives an unequivocal assurance to its Abkhaz and South Ossetian partners that some warming of relations between Russia and Georgia will not affect the once accomplished, namely, recognition of the independence of the two North Caucasian republics.
However, in Georgia itself, about the words of Sergei Lavrov, they have already expressed their answer: never, they say, never speak. After all, if “never”, then why then does a whole ministry work in Georgia - the ministry for the reintegration of Georgia, headed by a gentleman like Paata Zakareishvili?
So what can we expect from the emerging timid rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi, both in Russia itself and in South Ossetia and Abkhazia?
If you focus on the words of Sergei Lavrov, it turns out that the only possible development of events for the new Georgian leadership is the building of relations with the Russian Federation without taking into account its recognition of the independence of the mentioned states. In other words, if you want - trade, if you want - come to visit, you want - accept guests, but just forget about the return game with recognition of independence. This position clearly adds geopolitical points to Russia and at the same time shows that Georgia, no matter how close it considers itself NATO, the European Union or the United States, is simply not able to put pressure on the Russian position today.
It is obvious that the role of a state finally and irrevocably "forced to peace" will no longer suit the authorities in Tbilisi. What then is left to the authorities themselves to do? And they, by and large, there are only two options. Option one: to flap your wings, pretending that they are set up to solve the South Ossetian and Abkhaz issues, and gradually make confused contacts with Russia under this shop (imitation of rapid reintegration activity). Option two: try again and again to attract the world community to the fact that, say, it's time for the “invaders” to come to reason (in fact, an option that ultimately implies a new military adventure in the region).
Naturally, the first option today suits everyone: both Russia, and South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, and even Georgia itself. But he is not satisfied, for example, with large overseas democratizers. After all, then they will have to sign that they have lost their party in Georgia ...
Russia understands that Tbilisi simply does not want to lose face for the second time (for the first time it lost 08.08.08 thanks to one well-known politician who still holds the presidency in Georgia), and therefore it is necessary to play along somehow. Like, we understand your concerns, we understand the need for a whole separate ministry, we understand that Zakareishvili also needs to pay a salary for something (he wants to eat with his family too), and therefore, for God's sake, rush to the public as much as you want . The main thing is to feel the idea that the independence of Abkhazia, together with South Ossetia, has already, let's say, been played.
Is the second option possible? Well, in the condition that “progressive democratizers” demonstrate today, they themselves are not able to deal with the preliminary results of their attempts in North Africa and the Middle East, the probability of a new military intervention is close to zero. Ivanishvili does not look like a complete, sorry, idiot, to once again repeat mistakes like those that showed themselves in August of 2008. But on the other hand, who will ask Ivanishvili? - this time, and why military intervention? - these are two.
Here we must not lose sight of the fact that certain forces of Georgia are making, let's say, alternative attempts to get closer to resolving the issue. One of these areas of "bypass" was the use of so-called soft people's diplomacy. It seems like contacts at the highest level are impossible, but at the regional level it is quite possible to contact.
The realization of this thought resulted in a rather strange visit of the Georgian delegation to North Ossetia, which in Russia went almost unnoticed. In the second decade of February, Georgian delegates arrived from Tbilisi to Vladikavkaz, who, as stated in North Ossetia itself, had nothing to do with the official Georgian authorities. Well, they didn’t, they didn’t have that ... And what was the purpose of the visit, and who organized this visit at all?
It turned out that the invitation to the Georgian social activists was "sent out" by the head of the non-profit organization Caucasian Partnership, Mr. Silaev. According to him, the trip of the Georgian delegation to North Ossetia (and later to Dagestan) is connected with the fact that the Georgian side will better know what is happening in the Russian North Caucasus, and the Russian North Caucasus will better know what is happening in Georgia.
Despite the fact that the Georgian delegation did not represent any of the members of the official authorities, they were met by very official persons: the chief federal inspector for the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania Andrei Bessonov, representatives of the regional Ministry for Nationalities Affairs.
They discussed the problems that led to the deterioration of Russian-Georgian relations, about the situation in South Ossetia (who would doubt). And everything seems to have passed in a rather benevolent situation, but only the fact that Georgian public activists discussed the topic of South Ossetia in North Ossetia without the participation of at least one representative of Tskhinvali raises certain questions.
I do not want to build unjustified suspicions, but ...
A further trip by a group of Georgian social activists headed by a public activist of the Moscow bottling raises no less questions. The delegation after visiting Vladikavkaz and Beslan departed for Makhachkala. Here at a press conference held, Georgian experts stated that the purpose of their visit was to overcome the crisis situation between Russia and Georgia. The goal is good. But only foreign news agencies managed to link the visit of the Georgian delegation with the speeches of the Protestants in the North Caucasus (including Dagestan), who marked the next sad day of the deportation of the Chechen people to Siberia and North Kazakhstan. And they also remembered that a couple of years ago Georgia recognized the genocide of the Circassian people from Russia ...
Whether the visit of the Georgian delegation itself is connected with protest actions is difficult to say. But in the end it turned out that the trip of the Georgian delegation to the southern regions of Russia turned as certain forces wanted outside of Russia: the delegates seemed to support protest moods that were allegedly in full swing among the Chechen and Circassian population of the Russian North Caucasus. Very colorful about the protest rallies (against what? ..) in the south of Russia is painted by such an organization as The Jamestown Foundation. According to the statements of this organization, thousands of Chechens living in the territory of Dagestan literally demand from the authorities that they be sure to be returned to where their ancestors were deported from. At the same time, the authors of the materials did not bother to explain to their democratic readers, but what prevents the “dissatisfied” from returning to these very places on their own? .. But the goal is not this, but to inform: the Russian authorities continue to oppress the Caucasian peoples and Georgia is trying to help its “Caucasian brothers” here as it can ...
In this situation, one thing becomes clear: even if the current Georgian authorities abandon their attempts to once again destabilize the situation in the Caucasus, the world who want to do this will not diminish. The Jamestown Foundation, which broadcasts from Washington and "knows" about the problems of the Circassians and Chechens, like Mikhail Saakashvili, everything is a vivid example.
That is why when talking about what position official Tbilisi occupies in Russia, you need to look, and is there no one behind him? .. And is this “someone” ready to contact Tbilisi at all? It is in the presence of foreign forces interested in destabilization in the region that the main stumbling block in bilateral relations between Russia and Georgia lies