We are being pushed to storm Krasnoarmeysk... Why does the West need this?
Photo © Sputnik / Sergey Bobylev
There are so many materials in the media today about Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk in Ukrainian). You open almost any Russian, Ukrainian or Western publication and you will definitely find materials on this topic. It is understandable. If we consider the entire range of operations that are currently being carried out, Krasnoarmeysk is indeed a priority target.
And it has been a priority for many months. As far as I remember, General Syrsky spoke about the difficulties in the direction of Krasnoarmeysk in April of this year. Then in May. Moreover, in his May statement, Syrsky already called on the Ukrainian Armed Forces to go on the defensive and hold the occupied lines at any cost. This is what he called the main task of the Ukrainian armies.
One way or another, this section of the front was mentioned in interviews almost all summer long. Military and politicians of Ukraine. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even called it the hottest section on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Only one expired soldier held out until the last. Zelensky acknowledged the worsening situation only on August 6, when it became impossible to hide the true situation on the front.
Readers already remember what happened next. On August 19, a forced evacuation was announced, on August 20, archives began to be taken out of the city and officials fled. Today, it must be acknowledged that there are no state authorities in Krasnoarmeysk. The situation looks twofold. On the one hand, the city is well prepared for defense, on the other, the authorities do not believe that it can be saved.
Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces be able to stop the advancing forces?
I have already written that sometimes it seems that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deliberately surrendering settlements. They are running away so quickly. It is especially interesting to see the attempts of some units to gain a foothold in forest plantations, and sometimes almost in an open field.
But after a careful study of the video from the liberated settlements, these thoughts disappear. There was simply no serious engineering preparation for defense there. Perhaps this was one of the reasons for the adventure in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were so confident in their defense line in the east that they did not care about the depth of defense.
Some Western analysts came to the same conclusion and even developed this idea. The Russians will stretch the communications, weaken the flanks, and that is where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will strike and drive the attackers into a cauldron... The idea, of course, is "new and original". Especially considering the speed of the offensive, air superiority, heavy artillery and tanks. There is no need to write about moral superiority. An attack is always the maximum release of adrenaline...
So, we liberate something every day. It is stupid to talk about which settlements we liberated today in an analytical article. Simply because by the time it is published, this information will be outdated. Moreover, if we consider again the entire LBS, the Russian army reacts very quickly and effectively to any problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A brigade left the front line without waiting for its replacements to take its place - Russian units immediately use this situation for an offensive.
I have already written above about numerous publications concerning the defense of Krasnoarmeysk itself. Doesn't such attention raise questions among readers? In my opinion, we are being strongly encouraged to believe that we must make every effort to capture this city in the shortest possible time.
"A huge transport hub, the capture of which will create a bunch of problems for the entire group in Donbas"... Who argues, this is really so. But why should we throw all our forces specifically at liberating it? What if we bypass it and continue the offensive further, leaving the city in a ring of siege? Will something change? Will the highways and railways not be cut off? Will the garrison not end up on starvation rations?
Didn't the analysts think about such a decision? I don't believe it. Just as I don't believe that none of them looked at the calendar. September! There's very little time left for the massive use of wheeled and even tracked vehicles. Then there's the muddy season and a slowdown in the offensive in any case. Maybe this is the reason for such attention to the defense of Krasnoarmeysk?
I understand that there will be objections now in the sense that having a fairly serious encircled group in your own rear is quite dangerous. And taking into account the many years of engineering preparation of positions for defense, it is extremely dangerous. They will remember Mariupol. I agree. It is dangerous. But if you do not take into account the changed realities of the SVO.
And I will remind you of other cauldrons that were eliminated quite quickly. And not because the quality of the defenders changed, not because our attack aircraft gained experience, although these factors also play a role, but simply because the Russian army began to use more powerful ammunition. The same FABs successfully bury alive those hiding in underground communications.
Agree, it is difficult to raise the morale of the defenders to the required level in such conditions. A couple of buried underground passages and tunnels, turned into mass graves, will greatly dampen the ardor of the defenders. And the defense points on the surface will quickly turn into a pile of rubble after the use of the same FABs.
Thus, there is no need to bother with large strongholds. They can be worked on later, when the autumn thaw sets in. The task for today is the complete liberation of Donbass and access to Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov. We cannot delay this task any longer. Favorable conditions have been created, we must use them.
The dynamics of the offensive are such that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense is collapsing in the central Donetsk direction. We need to cut through the front. We need to get to operational space. Further defensive structures have either not been built or are under construction. Mechanized brigades introduced into the breakthrough can cause a lot of trouble in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Practically demoralizing Ukrainian units throughout the left-bank part of Ukraine.
If we look further, the question of Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov arises. I don't think that without a serious cleansing of the entire territory of the Left Bank it is worthwhile to begin their assault. Especially since there is a completely acceptable probability of these cities surrendering without an assault.
It is difficult, almost impossible, to defend a city with a population of a million, which is completely surrounded, and this is possible without much effort on our part. The army's losses will be so high that this could lead to the surrender of the entire army... Zelensky, if he is still in power by that time, will not do this.
Thus, the question of the possibility of stopping the Russian offensive at Krasnoarmeysk is removed. But the question of other sections of the front arises. There it is necessary to prepare units for the offensive. Kyiv will eventually first transfer its reserves to the central Donetsk direction, and then it will be the turn of combat brigades and battalions.
Brief conclusions from the situation
Looking so far ahead is a rather risky undertaking. The speed of development and unpredictability of events, especially the actions of the Kyiv regime, do create risks for more or less long-term forecasts. But only if we exclude the political component of the process. The situation in Kyiv simply "stinks of politics". Therefore, I will offer my own version of the development of events.
Kyiv's latest actions clearly show that Kyiv no longer hopes for any peaceful resolution of the conflict. The masks, as is often written, have been dropped. Just yesterday, Ukraine withdrew from the Treaty on Secret Communications. And that - from the Treaty on Gas Transit, etc. By doing so, Zelensky shows the West that he will go all the way. He is no longer interested in the fate of Ukraine itself.
I think the Ukrainian government has finally realized that Moscow will not negotiate with an expired president. But, in turn, Zelensky, with the help of the West, has established a system of governing the country in which any coup is simply impossible. Dictatorship, complete subordination of all branches of power.
I will repeat once again: Ukraine has lost, and Western aid is just a supplement that can “extend life,” but not cure. Neither the US nor Europe are planning an “organ transplant” operation, that is, the introduction of their own compounds and the start of a world war. The country is being “erased” from the world map.
So, the expired has two ways to save itself. The first, still illusory, is the introduction of NATO troops to participate in the war with Russia. This is an illusion that is being “fed” to the Ukrainian people today. But they are “fed” so actively that even the breadwinners themselves have come to believe in such a development of events. Just as they have come to believe that the West’s resources are limitless.
And the second, presumably already being implemented by Zelensky: to do everything to make the defeat of Ukraine as bloody and destructive as possible. Thus, to really wipe the country off the political map of the world. At the same time, to guarantee the assistance of Western countries in the evacuation of his own person. The usual practice of rats fleeing a sinking ship...
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