Mass migration and the question of the survival of the Russian civilization. Part of 2
It is more and more obvious that the priority measure for some stabilization in the issue of migration is the visa regime with the countries of Central Asia. More than two decades have passed since the collapse of the USSR, and many still have the illusion that in the republics of Central Asia our former compatriots live, people close to us in culture and mentality. However, during this time there have already grown generations who do not know the Russian language, Russian culture. In these countries, not only de-Sovietisation was carried out, but also de-Russification, which took place simultaneously with the strengthening of nationalist sentiments. Moreover, this region is strongly degraded culturally, socio-economically, and is in a state of increasing archaic attributes. There is an increase in the authority of religion, radical currents of Islam.
Central Asia is rolling to the so-called. "Neo-feudalism", there is a gradual "Afghanization" of the region. Tajikistan survived several years of civil war, its economy degraded to such an extent that remittances from Tajik migrants accounted for almost half of the country's GDP. Kyrgyzstan in recent years has experienced several revolutions and large-scale unrest, often very bloody. In Russia, the notion of “abandoning” has even appeared, that is, to participate in the destruction of the infrastructure of one’s own country, at the suggestion of certain external and internal forces. Kyrgyzstan has become a state where there was a major ethnic conflict - between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Not stable and Uzbekistan.
Experts talk about the possibility of conflict between the former Soviet republics. Thus, the forecast report of the National Intelligence Council, published in Washington, states that inter-state conflicts over water resources are possible in the period before 2030 in Central Asia. The problem of water resources both within the states and at the interstate level can become a more serious source of disagreement than minerals or energy. In addition, disputes over agricultural land have already been noted. It is also necessary to take into account the dangerous proximity of the “zone of chaos” - Afghanistan, which has become the main producer of heroin on the planet.
Thus, the problem of degradation of the Central Asian region is obvious. Therefore, open borders with the countries of Central Asia are inappropriate. An exception can be made only for Kazakhstan. And then you need to consider the current policy of his leadership. When Astana attempts to evade integration within the framework of the Eurasian Union, the visa regime must be introduced with Kazakhstan. Thus, recently, under pressure from accusations of a possible loss of part of national sovereignty, Astana has blocked the recent integration initiatives of Moscow, and there has been a pause in the integration processes between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In particular, in September 2012, Russian State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin expressed the idea of establishing a Eurasian parliament. However, the secretary of the ruling Nur Otan party, Yerlan Karin, called this idea “only the desire of the Russian side”. He also stated that the creation of a supranational political structure cannot be discussed in principle, since it directly affects the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. Karina's statement was made on the day when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kazakhstan, which is hardly accidental. The Kazakh opposition, in which nationalistic sentiments are strong, took a sharply negative position on this issue.
There were other negative signals from Kazakhstan. 14 December 2012 of the year N. Nazarbayev, in a message to the people of the republic, “Strategy Kazakhstan-2050” quite unexpectedly instructed 2025 to work out the question of translating the Kazakh alphabet into Latin graphics. The idea of “romanization” of Kazakh literature was lobbied by nationalists for two decades now and has received a green light. In addition, the Pan-Turkist vector of Kazakhstan's foreign policy has intensified. Last October, during a visit to the Turkish capital, the Kazakh leader surprised political scientists with a speech calling for the unity of the Turkic peoples. According to him, 200 million Turks live between Altai and the Mediterranean Sea, and if they unite, they will become "a very effective force in the world." Moreover, Nazarbayev criticized the time Kazakhstan was in the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. During the 150 years, when Kazakhstan was a “colony” of Russia, “the Kazakhs almost lost their national traditions, customs, language, religion,” he said. As a result, some analysts began talking about Astana leaning toward the Pan-Turkic project.
On the website "For visa regime" it is reported that the political movement "New Force" has collected more than 100 thousand signatures in support of the visa regime with the countries of Central Asia and Transcaucasia. March 6 collected signatures are going to transfer to the presidential administration. The leader of the movement, Valery Solovey, said that the collection of signatures will continue with “the aim of introducing a visa regime and blocking amendments to the law on citizenship.” Recall that in June 2012, Vladimir Putin at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, said that all initiatives that could collect 100 thousand authorized signatures on the Internet would be considered by the State Duma. In addition, Putin in his message to the Federal Assembly promised to introduce with the countries that will be within the framework of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space, the visa regime from 2015 year.
According to the Federal Migration Service (FMS), about 2012 million migrants lived in the Russian Federation in 5 year. However, independent experts who are guided by the volume of remittances, argue that they are at least twice as large. According to the FMS, about 13 – 14 million foreigners visit Russia annually, 70% of them are citizens of the CIS countries. Only 1,3 million foreigners work or are trained on a legal basis.
The head of the FMS, Konstantin Romodanovsky, announced the latest figures. In total, 10,2 million foreigners currently reside in the Russian state. Of these, only 1,5 million foreigners work in the country legally on the basis of a work permit. Leading among them are representatives of three countries - Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Tajikistan. According to the Federal Migration Service, about 17 million foreigners will come to Russia this year. Konstantin Romodanovsky reported that out of 10 million, the arrived 3,3 million people have already violated the period of their legal stay in Russia. Almost all of them settled in major cities of Russia. Most migrant offenders from three states: from Uzbekistan - 900 thousand people, from Ukraine - 500 thousand, and from Tajikistan - 400 thousand.
During a report at the FMS board in Moscow, Romodanovsky admitted his impotence against illegal migrants. He proposed the establishment of migratory public patrols in all Russian major cities. According to the head of the FMS, employees cannot constantly monitor all objects where illegal immigrants can live or work. It can be both private apartments and houses, and industrial facilities, and transportation hubs, and airports, and public places. Konstantin Romodanovsky reported that in the capital such “squads” have already recommended themselves well, while patrolling railway stations and markets. Therefore, this experience should be spread in all Russian cities.
The presence of migrants in Russia is justified by economic reasons. Allegedly, without them economic growth is impossible. In fact, pro-government experts and officials, except for the already ritual “argument” about labor shortages, cannot say anything. When trying to object, the proponents of mass migration begin to speak outright nonsense. For example, the chairman of the State Duma Committee on National Affairs from United Russia, Gadzhimet Safaraliev, said: “The ideas on reducing quotas and introducing a visa regime with the republics of Central Asia seem completely unacceptable to me. We cannot afford to destroy our good relations with the republics, with which we had only recently lived within the framework of a single union state. If we begin to reduce quotas, then sooner or later, a number of sectors of the economy, such as construction, housing and public utilities and others, will simply stop. I am sure that the Russian economy cannot do without attracting labor migrants from the former Soviet republics. If we give up their work today, then someday we will have to turn to representatives of African republics who have problems with the Russian language and adaptation to our cultural traditions will be more serious than those of current migrants. ” Thus, representatives of the neoliberal wing of the Russian authorities, publicly explain that if we don’t want to see the masses of Tajiks and Uzbeks in Russia, then they will deliver blacks.
Does it make economic sense to keep millions of migrant workers in Russia? The answer is understood on the basis that migrants do not invest money, but, on the contrary, take it out. They do not create advanced production and jobs in Russia, but rather inhibit the modernization of the Russian economy. For example, in the United States, 30% of high-tech companies are based on migrants and 100 jobs for foreign workers in science and technology create 262 jobs for US citizens. In addition, the US should learn in the sense that migrants cause less trouble to social and law enforcement services, less likely to go to prisons and mental health facilities than local residents. Control authorities can quickly deprive migrants of legal status, which disciplines them.
Social and cultural integration of migrants in Russia almost can not be. The report of experts from the government working group on migration in the framework of the Strategy-2020 reports that 92% of migrants spend their free time only in the circle of their fellow countrymen, which does not contribute to their adaptation to Russian realities.
According to the research of SUPPORT and “Business Russia”, the need for migrants for the Russian economy is determined by the figure of about 23% of their total number. It is this percentage that shows the answer to the question: “Can the jobs that foreign workers work for in your organization be occupied by foreign personnel?” “Under no circumstances will Russians go to such work as guest workers go to” - 18% in small and 29% in an average business (the average percentage is about 23%). Thus, out of approximately 10 guest workers in the Russian state, in fact, approximately 2 million are needed. The remaining 8 million can be safely sent back to their homeland. Having entered a quota for approximately 2 million of foreign workers, their presence in Russia must be entered into a normal, civilized course. They should work only legally, it is necessary that they receive normal wages, live in human conditions, pay income tax, etc. At the first violation, deprive them of the right to stay in Russia for 5-10 years so that they value their workplace and behave accordingly .
Everything else is a matter of personal pocket of Russian business and officials. Illegals are profitable for them to extract super profits. For ordinary people, millions of migrants are the loss of jobs, a drop in wages, the export of poverty, crime, the flow of drugs, the strengthening of the base of Islamic fundamentalism.
But the main problem is the continuation of the course of neoliberals on the erosion of the Russian majority in the Russian state. Certain circles do not like the fact that the Russians are still the "core" of Russia, and according to the latest census, they are 77%. Russian major cities are transformed into "Babylon". Of course, one can argue with this opinion, saying that the demographic potential of the republics of Central Asia is not enough for the assimilation of the Russians. However, there is evidence that supporters of mass migration to Russia will not stop at this. M.B. Denisenko and N.V. Mkrtchyan in his work “The Migration Potential of Central Asia” concluded that “Inevitably expanding the list of countries from which large flows of migrants to Russia are sent.” According to them, 2025-11 million foreigners must be brought to Russia before 16, in order to overcome negative demographic processes. Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea are among the countries that can become suppliers of “new Russians”.
Sources:
Before 2025, 11-16 of millions of migrants will come to Russia // http://ttolk.ru/?p=6940
If we give up migrants from the former Soviet republics, we will have to contact the representatives of Africa // http://regions.ru/news/2447743/
Konstantin Romodanovsky: In Russia, more 3 million illegal immigrants, without the help of society can not cope with them // http://regions.ru/news/2447695/
Migrants - the engine of the US economy. And the brake - for Russia // http://ttolk.ru/?p=16068
Russians and migrants told each other // http://2020strategy.ru/g7/news/32701255.html
http://dentv.ru/content/view/moskva-gostyam-ne-verit/
http://www.km.ru/
http://www.kroupnov.ru/
http://zavizu.org/
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