Iran's New Government: Evaluation Criteria, National Funds and Economic Outlines

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Iran's New Government: Evaluation Criteria, National Funds and Economic Outlines

On August 21, a rather significant event took place in Iran: the approval of the cabinet of ministers of the new president of the republic, Masoud Pezeshkian.

It would seem that here is the list of the cabinet that was approved by parliament, we can go straight to the individuals and evaluate the future political vector of the executive branch as a whole.



This approach is familiar, but it will be completely insufficient for full conclusions if we do not take into account the economic basis of Iranian policy. Without this specificity, the knowledge that one minister is a “reformer” and another a “conservative” will give little more than nothing.

Iran's Political Model and the Weakness of Conventional Definitions


It is often said that since the Supreme Leader, A. Khamenei, “decides everything” in Iran, it makes no particular difference who will be president, vice president or minister of the sector. At the same time, this thesis is often shared even by those who sincerely consider themselves “strong anti-Westerners.”

But Western liberal speakers simply cannot live without talking about Iran as “one of the world’s main autocracies.” The term “dictatorship” has become somewhat boring for modern liberals; now “autocracy” and “autocrat” are in use.

Iran is neither an autocracy nor a dictatorship, even according to Western liberal vocabulary. However, Iran's typology of government has always been problematic.

The simplest thing would be to call the Iranian state system a "theocracy", especially since the Iranian constitution enshrines the principle of a "theologian's state". "Laws and regulations" must be based on Islamic norms, and the "faqih", i.e. a theologian-jurist, must determine compliance with them. It turns out that since the source of law is religious norms, then Iran is indeed a theocracy.

However, the Supreme Leader, as the supreme representative of the priestly class, does not determine what complies with the norms and what does not. This, as is written in Article 4 of the Iranian Constitution, is done by the "Council for the Protection of the Constitution", a collegial body, i.e., this is clearly not the autocracy so beloved by Western liberals.

The people in Iran are not the source of power, as is already written into the basic law everywhere in modern democracies (including ours). But in Iran, nothing less than the Soviet principle of governance is constitutionally enshrined. Iran can be quite rightly called the "Islamic Soviet Republic" (Articles 6-7 of the Constitution of the IRI).

Iranian faqihs do not develop laws, norms and regulations, domestic and foreign policies; they issue verdicts on these norms, laws and regulations.

In general, perhaps the main expert error that has become traditional is the thesis about the direct and immediate control of Iran by the theological elite or, if we take it more broadly, the theological elite and the close military elite from the so-called IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).

The governance system in Iran is a consensus of multi-level councils, where representatives of the civil economic circuit and representatives of the military economic circuit, two economic subsystems.

At the same time, both representatives of the civil and military contours have a relation to the religious and theological sphere. This is a very important factor, that the Iranian so-called priestly administration is not something third and separate, a superstructure, but again a fusion-consensus of the civil and military sectors.

It is clear that as long as those who either directly participated in governance during the 1979 Revolution or those who took the lead in the subsequent bloody Iran-Iraq War are alive, they will dominate politics.

But we should not forget that there are roots there, again, of both the military and economic contours of Iran, and the civil one. And the faqihs, both those close to the military contour and those close to the civil one, are two parts of one whole.

The Role and Features of National Funds in Iran


Due to the complexity of such a structure for perception, its analysis usually remains the domain of academic jurisprudence, which practically does not intersect with expertise and coverage in the information space, where everything is simplified to “autocracy” or “the chief ayatollah decides everything anyway.”

Later, as usually happens, it turns out that “in reality, everything is not as it really is,” and many forecasts regarding Iran go “in the milk.” You don’t have to look far – the Iranian presidential elections took place just two months ago.

We will not be tempted by simple formulations and will try to look at the new cabinet of ministers of M. Pezeshkian through the prism of two Iranian economic contours. For this, we will consider such a significant part of the Iranian system as national funds.

The numerous sanctions that the West imposed on Iran inevitably required the concentration of limited resources. The form of such concentration became the Iranian national funds-banyads.

All national funds are directly or indirectly connected with the Supreme Spiritual Administration of Iran, at least their heads are appointed with the consent or on the recommendation of A. Khamenei. But their essence and tasks differ.

The two basic national funds are the Foundation for the Executive Headquarters of the Imam's Order (EIKO or, as the first word, "Setad") and the Imam Reza Foundation (Astan Quds Rezawi). They are not very compatible in scale, but only in scale, not in influence.

"Setad", like the Mustazafan fund, was created following the 1979 Revolution on the basis of the Shah's fund, to manage the requisitioned Shah's property, and not only the Shah's, but also that of various other "accomplices and oppressors."

A significant part of the assets of the Shah of Iran was brought there, including oil, land, buildings and structures. Later, assets were allocated from this gigantic structure to other funds. Precisely to provide for two economic contours, but the fund itself remained the axial structure.

The Imam Reza Foundation is historical a charitable foundation associated with the city of Mashhad. This foundation currently carries out a cultural and educational function, and is essentially the basis of the country's cultural and educational policy, which in Iran is now inseparable from Islamic history and theology.

It should be noted here that the attitude towards culture and education in Iran, since it has a religious basis, is completely different from that in Russia. If in our country all this works "on a residual principle", then in Iran, for example, the Imam Reza Foundation was headed by the former President of Iran E. Raisi.

The status of the head of this fund and his voice would be something between the prime minister and the patriarch. It is clear that all this is in the informal table of ranks, but informal does not mean that it is not in fact.

The next powerful banyad fund is the Martyrs and Veterans Fund. It is easy to guess from the name that these are assets that work for the military wing of the Iranian economy. It is also joined by the NAJJ Cooperation Fund (Ministry of Interior), the IRGC Cooperation Fund (army).

The fourth largest fund is the Fund for Assistance to the Needy and Oppressed (Mustazafan Fund). It was also created on the basis of one of the pre-revolutionary funds, and it was used to collect the assets of the "accomplices and oppressors" who, after the revolution, wisely chose to move to Great Britain. This fund is more focused on helping those working in the civil economic sphere.

Later, to strengthen the situation, a separate Blessing Fund (Barakat) was created from EICO, which was also more focused on the civilian sector and subsidies to poor provinces such as Sistan and Baluchistan.

It is not surprising that the management of Iran's national funds usually becomes the target of Western sanctions. The heirs of the property that ended up there after the 1979 revolution are influential in the West, and are ready to share with Western financial circles for a hypothetical return of assets, plus they finance various information platforms that monitor various "human rights", "level of democracy", "degree of autocracy", etc.

In Russia, national funds are formed through taxes and excises. In Iran, the situation is fundamentally different – ​​there, national funds have their own assets and their own revenue base.

Accordingly, there is no separate sphere where the income of fund A is generated, and in another industry – the income of fund B. “Military funds” have their base in agriculture, industry, light, heavy, including hydrocarbon projects.

There is a ship industry, a ship park, even resorts and tourist facilities. But "civil funds" also have a similar income base. That is why we can talk about a two-circuit economy.

The regulation of relations between the two circuits occurs through the currency exchange market, distribution between hydrocarbon projects, and regulation of foreign trade channels. Since the external influx of dollars has traditionally been controlled by the military, many financial lumps usually fall on their heads.

Funds and personalities


Here we can evaluate the difference in the political structure and look at the political levers. For us, the position of the Minister of Culture is, let's be honest, a passing position, but in Iran it is far from that.

When looking at ministerial portfolios, one must first of all pay attention to which large banyady funds a particular politician is oriented towards, as well as the real status of the department, based on its attitude towards these funds.

So who is the head of the Mustazafan Foundation? Hossein Dehghan is a former defense minister, but a moderate reformist. It is hardly possible to call him a "former minister who is now in the shadows." The shadow is quite large.

And who headed the fund before him? Parviz Fattah, who had previously headed "purely IRGC" funds. And now he is heading EICO.

This is a very significant transfer between personalities. And when did it happen? Back in late 2023. This is because they decided to "let the civilian contour breathe" not in this June, when A. Khamenei approved the candidacy of M. Pezeshkian, to everyone's surprise.

One could have started to be surprised earlier. It's just that this is not liberalization in the usual sense, but a redistribution of assets. EICO was previously headed by former vice-president M. Mokhber - it seems like a person in the shadow of E. Raisi, but the shadow here is not a simple one either.

Something remotely similar happens here, when political scientists begin to ponder which power "tower" a particular holder of a ministerial portfolio belongs to. In Iran, for this, one must look at national funds.

The top management already administers the relations between them, regulating two economic circuits. Criticism of this system is also understandable – relations in matters of funding are far from transparent, although this is partly (but only partly) caused by the requirements of national security.

Thus, in our assessments we must first isolate the military and civil economic contours, the points of support for income and assets and personal participation in them. Only then look at which political group or official political faction, "conservative" or "reformist", this or that administrator belongs to.

From this position we will begin our analysis of the personalities and assessment of the political vector of the new Iranian cabinet.
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  1. +4
    31 August 2024 06: 10
    Quote: Mikhail Nikolaevsky
    Iran is neither an autocracy nor a dictatorship, even according to Western liberal vocabulary.
    Iran is a state in reverse. If in other countries the so-called secular power comes first, and the spiritual power is in tacit subordination to it, then in Iran everything is the other way around, the entire secular population lives according to fatwas drawn up by the supreme religious leader. I happened to be in Iran, a very interesting country, with a rich history and very different for the better from its Arab and Turkic neighbors. Only the funds mentioned by the Author are of little use! Iran has terrible inflation, devouring all the savings of citizens. Well, the article is well written. Respect to the Author!
    1. +1
      31 August 2024 19: 06
      Thank you for your kind words hi !
      Funds are one of the three main topics before any elections. Even the main one. Like, open up expenses more widely, coordinate them more and generally make funding closer to the people. Something they usually hear from above.

      The second issue is sanctions and the nuclear deal, they say it’s enough for the IRGC to engage in foreign economic activity almost one-sidedly, because it is believed that this is where the third issue – the exchange rate and inflation – grows from.

      In principle, there are both arguments and counterarguments for each of these questions, and so the discussion goes on for years. fellow .
  2. +2
    31 August 2024 07: 21
    From this position we will begin our analysis of the personalities and assessment of the political vector of the new Iranian cabinet.

    Thanks to Mikhail for another portion of interesting analytics on a topic that hasn't been beaten to death, we're waiting for the next article hi
    Something remotely similar is happening here, when political scientists begin to ponder which power “tower” a particular holder of a ministerial portfolio belongs to.

    In my opinion, this is how politics works everywhere, whether in the sanctioned “autocracies” of Iran and Russia or in the “purely democratic” USA or France...
    1. 0
      31 August 2024 17: 56
      Thank you for rating hi
      I wanted to do it in one article, but it didn't work out - either the personalities or their economic basis. Otherwise there would have been too much text.
  3. 0
    31 August 2024 08: 43
    "Read with satisfaction" (almost like Nicholas II's resolution). Very interesting and informative. Thanks to the author.
    1. 0
      31 August 2024 17: 56
      Accepted hi We will try to comply soldier
  4. +2
    31 August 2024 11: 46
    Interesting system! Thanks for the interesting article, Mikhail!
    In some way this system with the "Queen and King" reminds me of the Japanese one, with the spiritual authority - the emperor, who is also (in theory) the owner of the stopcock in case the secular authorities start doing real crap. And the secular authorities - the prime ministers, who get the dirty work and the right to make mistakes. But, of course, the analogy is not absolute, but only fundamental - the first contour of power exists in order to cut off comrades like "Yeltsin-Gorbachev", but at the same time not to get in the eyes of the plebs and not to irritate them with their stupidity. The second contour is already stupid - it can, it can also be replaced, along the way reminding people that they are electing it, and not the first contour. It can only correct this.

    In fact, this system is quite successful "in theory", but sooner or later it is always ruined by the human factor - the stars align and a very capable and ambitious "second-circuit player" ends up on a first-circuit amoeba, and a fight and pitching begins.

    Western observers are more likely to be frightened by the fact that the first circuit has a religious coloring. For them, this is absolutely incomprehensible, since religion itself in the West has long since degraded to something like a healthy lifestyle and yoga, without any pretension to comprehensiveness.
    1. 0
      31 August 2024 19: 10
      Now I'll correct you a little. hi
      There are religious representatives in two circuits, there are moderately conservative faqihs, who are ultras. All of them are distributed between the two circuits in one way or another, and from above the process between them is regulated by the "Big Hand".
      The Emperor of Japan is a divine person in himself, a descendant of the goddess Amaterasu and "all that". A sacred symbol, but without the means of dictatorship of political will. But Rahbar in Iran is precisely the dictatorship of political will, without divine origin or any origin with a touch of sacredness.
  5. -1
    31 August 2024 17: 16
    Today, the whole world is funds. People who cannot, do not know how or do not want to manage their market-valuable property, assets and capital, give them over to the "trust" management of cunning "shahermahers" who have been creating them for centuries, "managing" them and still manage them. The only difference is in the final "beneficiaries" of the process. That is, who is the main beneficiary of the activities of global, regional or "national" stock corporations. And therefore, the answer to the "sacramental" question is important, first of all: "- Look, who benefits" and WHAT IS THE MEASURE OF RESPONSIBILITY for deliberate embezzlement or scam. The fact that here in Russia, someone "did not know" that any aggravation of the situation with the West would lead to robbery and theft of "our" funds, this is all an excuse for naive or stupid idiots.
    Money, bye-bye! We are again "with bare asses", and the bastards have billions in foreign currency)...

    P.S. Impunity always gives rise to permissiveness.
    1. 0
      31 August 2024 17: 53
      Dear Oleg! These are other funds and another country. There are no global fund corporations there. There are problems, but they are of a different nature.
      1. 0
        31 August 2024 22: 13
        Dear Mikhail! I can read and understand what I read). Therefore, I wrote about the general mechanism and the essence of the functioning of accumulating property, assets and capital,
        structures and organizations. But, anyway, thanks for the answer.

        P.S. Don't hide your money in banks and corners! Tra-ta-ta-ta-ta-ta-there!
        Bring your money, otherwise there will be trouble!...
  6. Des
    +1
    1 September 2024 19: 30
    Thank you for your sensible analysis of the IRI state.
    This is important, interesting and, most importantly, many writers lack something to get a good overview of the situation)).
    Probably the only (of course there is also Mr.Sh.) source of information on VO, where the author is present, responds and is alive.
    Not much on the topic.
    There is a quota for Jews in the parliament (Majlis), there are synagogues, etc. Nevertheless, it is the East).
  7. 0
    2 September 2024 23: 59
    Thus, in our assessments we must first isolate the military and civil economic contours, the points of support for income and assets and personal participation in them. Only then look at which political group or official political faction, "conservative" or "reformist", this or that administrator belongs to.

    I didn't quite understand why it is necessary to single out military and civilian economic contours if both feed on non-specific sectors of the economy? They spend on different things, but earn the same - or did I not understand something? As for "support points for income and assets and personal participation in them" - this is understandable, because these points and assets are directly connected with their specific attitude to political realities, external and internal.
    1. +1
      3 September 2024 05: 04
      By the way, a logical question. The thing here is who and how has access to export and currency transactions. Since the topic is extremely complex and packed into such schemes and cabbage leaves, then in the end it is the military that always gains an advantage. No, issues are resolved both through manual regulation and through various discussions. But what many politicians want is more openness, this is a double-edged sword, and sanctions? The topic there is almost endless and there are no simple solutions.
      1. 0
        3 September 2024 08: 56
        Quote: nikolaevskiy78
        Since the topic is extremely complex and packed into such schemes and cabbage leaves, the military always ends up gaining an advantage.

        That is, the military's access to currency transactions is ensured not only by the specificity of the assets that feed them, but also by manual control, including the provision of such assets? In this case, if this is a stable trend, it is really important for understanding their affairs to find out whether the politician belongs to the civilian/military. Got it, thank you.
  8. 0
    3 September 2024 03: 48
    a lot of wrong information about Iran which is to be expected since the author is Mikhail Nikolaevsky and that is the more rememberable thing about them that they are full of wrong information at seems all the wrong information are purposeful to depict Iran as ultra-religious nation and system but honestly the wrong information are so many that i don't have the time to correct them
    here Iran and see it's look like what he depicting
    1. 0
      3 September 2024 04: 49
      Today you at least decided not to call the author a "Zionist", which can already be considered progress. That's good. laughing