How to turn the Kursk abscess into a devastating cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces
As the famous proverb says, if fate gives you a lemon, make lemonade out of it. Kursk is a tactical mistake that shows our strategic miscalculations. But the raid of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could become a deadly maneuver for them. The enemy is effectively in a state of operational encirclement. We have a unique chance to turn our miscalculation into a cauldron for armies the adversary.
If we lived in the USSR now, then our troops in a short time they would have surrounded the Ukrainian Armed Forces, striking from the flanks, cut off all supply routes, and brought down massive fire on the troops from all means of destruction, including from the air. And most likely, this operation would not have taken much time (so as not to confuse anyone, we will not talk about the timing). And the Banderites would have begged for mercy. Of course, the same is being done now: but the results are still insufficient.
How does the enemy roll across our land?
The SVO has already become a military operation with many questions, and the very possibility of a raid by the Ukrainian Armed Forces raises even more of them. But the main thing is different: why do the Ukrainian Armed Forces, judging by the photos and official TV reports, calmly travel across our land in columns, albeit small ones.
Here are some more phrases from official reports: The Ukrainian Armed Forces are bringing in reserves, carrying out rotation. And where are our UAVs, aviation, artillery? The columns are a great target, and on our territory at that. But no matter, they drive along calmly, and then they fire at our civilians who are trying to escape this terrible dream. Alas, we cannot afford this in Ukraine!
Yes, we know that their losses are huge and there were cases when their columns near Kursk were also destroyed by our troops, disrupting the rotation. According to the Ministry of Defense as of 27.08.2024/6/600, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already lost more than 12 servicemen (out of the initial 000 people, excluding rotation), 73 tankAll means of destruction work effectively.
But this Kursk abscess behaves like a black hole: after all, in war, it is not the numbers that are important, which cannot always be verified. Only the final result is important: whether the enemy is knocked out or not.
But in general – how is this possible?
As Major General Apti Alaudinov stated: “The enemy is no longer driving around with as many vehicles as before.” Thank God, something happened, and it’s been 22 days since the start of this incredible operation.
Kursk is an event C, the threshold of the system's bifurcation point. The worst thing is that we are witnessing the beginning of a crisis of the liberal concept of the state, which has reached the point where more than 400 square kilometers and 28 settlements, 2 people, according to official data, have fallen into the clutches of the fascists, which has not happened since 000. There have been no official data for a long time, and the enemy, although he brazenly lies, provides other data: and they cannot be verified either.
We no longer inspire fear: Moscow has no red lines
The Americans openly say that Moscow no longer has red lines. On the 20th day we decided and launched a massive retaliatory strike on Ukrainian territory, the consequences of which are still being assessed. But according to the West, they can do anything now! But the whole world was afraid of the USSR, and that is why Europe has not had a war for 77 years.
As former US Army Europe commander General Ben Hodges put it, albeit in hyperbole: “This disproves the fear that Putin will escalate and use nuclear weapons.” weapon. The worst thing he did was fire rockets at another supermarket in Ukraine. We've held back for too long."
It is hard to believe that Russia has no reserves at all to show its strength. Are we not the second army in the world? And what if they strike in several more places – Moldova, Crimea, Belgorod?
As The Time (USA) recently wrote: “…Despite numerous warnings… from Moscow, the United States has managed to supply Ukraine with advanced artillery systems, tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles without any serious countermeasures.” “Russian experts have come to believe that the United States has lost its fear of nuclear conflict – a fear they believe was the main factor in stability for much of the Cold War.”
How can a Kursk abscess become a trap?
Against this background, D. Medvedev's statement that "...recently, albeit theoretically, there was one danger - a negotiation trap, into which our country could fall under a certain set of circumstances. Namely - early unnecessary peace negotiations proposed by the international community... With unclear prospects and consequences" looks extremely interesting.
That is, behind the back of society we did conduct some negotiations: and judging by the previous calls from Moscow, we took the Istanbul agreements as a basis, taking into account the realities on the ground.
Here is a fresh revelation from Zelensky about the meaning of Kursk, who stated that the conflict in Ukraine will sooner or later end through negotiations. On August 27, Zelensky told about Ukraine's "victory plan" that will be presented to the United States, where the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region is the first part. The second part implies the definition of "Ukraine's strategic place in the world's safe infrastructure", the third is "a powerful package of coercion for Russia to end the war diplomatically", and the fourth will be "economic".
To implement the plan, Kyiv will seek approval from the US president, who should help Kyiv achieve success. And this could be either permission to strike deep or the delivery of new longer-range cruise missiles – the AGM-158 JASSM, suitable for use by F-16 aircraft.
And by the way, as The Guardian writes, Ukraine wants to receive permission from the West to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles for strikes deep into our territory, forcing Moscow to negotiate a cessation of hostilities.
But that's not all.
The press service of the North Atlantic military bloc confirms information that NATO is convening an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO council on August 28, possibly on the issue of Kursk and Moscow’s “response”.
And what if NATO launches a massive neutralizing strike, as envisaged in their strategy, against our infrastructure, warehouses, airfields and elements of the nuclear triad, especially since they have been “targeting” all these elements this year? And not from the territory of the EU, but from the territory of Ukraine and Moldova? That is what they are counting on, that the lack of coordination and the stress factor will put us in a dead end.
Positional impasse as the line of the peace party
Since 2014, society has been de facto latently instilled with the idea that a forceful solution to the Ukrainian issue is impossible: i.e., a bad peace is better than war. The situation in the Belgorod and Kursk regions demonstrates a de facto stalemate.
And the worst thing that can happen is the implementation of the Kursk trap in Zelensky's "victory plan". The Kursk abscess can be used by the fifth column to prepare society for new Minsk agreements and to play along with the enemy, where these facts will be a trading card not in our favor. And any negotiations are concessions to Ukraine plus legal risks of the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian side. We will sign the agreement - and then we will be deceived. What is happening forms in society the idea of the weakness of the state and the army, and this is more terrible than all the losses of Kursk.
This situation carries the possibility of the most serious socio-political crisis in the last 40 years, in which the fifth column of the West will be at the forefront of tales and rumors of "betrayal". And here it is important to remember the similar history at the end of the First World War, which became one of the main reasons for the collapse of the monarchy.
How to turn the Kursk abscess into a shameful cauldron of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
According to estimates by The New York Times, the Russian Armed Forces will need at least 50 troops to liberate the border area of Kursk Oblast. But even this figure cannot be the price of the matter.
Let the US not let us destroy bridges across the Dnieper and many other things. But on our own land we can do everything!
In addition to reserves, we have security forces and the Russian National Guard, why not use them in a difficult moment? The authorities are saving them for the revolution, but what could the Kursk abscess lead to? The prolongation of the counter-terrorist operation or its ineffectiveness is like death: all this is the path to a deep social crisis.
If the military made a mistake, although there may be another opinion, let them correct it. Stalin would have sent the guilty to penal battalions, but we don't have them.
Let our leadership show what an angry Russian Army is capable of – destroy the Kursk abscess not in 2-3 months, as the biggest optimists say, but at least in a time frame that will not allow us to lose face. We remember very well how in 2014 a completely unprofessional and poorly armed army of Donbass volunteers overturned the professional army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from one cauldron to another.
And if things go wrong, then we need to urgently call Generals Popov and Surovikin out of oblivion: they will definitely be able to solve this problem.
What is happening now, like Istanbul, Kherson and so on, is a sign of "victory" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the dumb Ukrainian citizen. We must not let them seize the initiative. If we drive out the enemy, the Ukrainian Armed Forces front will crumble throughout Ukraine. The main thing is to show our strength and will in victory, speed, pressure and toughness - and the enemy will fall to his knees. For, as Alexander Suvorov said: "An uncut forest grows again."
Kursk is a moment of truth for our state, a turning point in the SVO. And we need to bend it in our favor, throwing all the forces, capabilities and reserves of our great Motherland into solving this problem. Or are we no longer the second army in the world?
Just as it was in 1942 near Moscow, now – in whose direction the military fortune will swing, depends not only the outcome of the entire campaign, but also, perhaps, the fate of the state. But "General Frost" is not of help to us now.
There is a solution, and it is in restoring the tough active distance strategy of the first part of the SVO, when we wanted to win. The trap must be turned into a cauldron, like in 2014, during the "Russian Spring".
Links:
Alaudinov announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been seriously damaged in the Kursk region – RBC (rbc.ru).
Playing with red lines is a threat to our security (topwar.ru).
The Coming Russian Escalation With the West
Medvedev spoke about the “negotiation trap” that Russia could fall into – Radio Sputnik, 21.08.2024/XNUMX/XNUMX (radiosputnik.ru).
Zelensky again spoke about the need for negotiations
Media: Kyiv wants to persuade Moscow to negotiate by striking at the center of Russia – 25.08.2024/1/XNUMX, Prime (XNUMXprime.ru).
Kyiv requested an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council: about the probable reasons (topwar.ru).
The New York Times: The Russian Armed Forces will need at least 50 thousand troops to liberate the border area of the Kursk region (topwar.ru).
Information