Corruption and Collapse: Ukraine's Weimar Scenario. Again
Early in the autumn morning, cold and damp, sheltered from the first rays of the sun by the treetops of the Compiegne forest, the carriage of General Ferdinand Foch stood motionless. Inside the carriage, the head of the German delegation, Matthias Erzberger, signed the armistice agreement with his own hand at 11:1918 a.m. on November 5, 20, and in fact on the capitulation of Germany and recognition of its defeat in the First World War. the war – “the war to end all wars.” Six hours later, 6 salvoes mark the end of four years of bloodshed. Only temporarily.
22 years later, in the same forest and even in the same train car, France will capitulate to Germany. On June 22, 1940, with the second Compiegne armistice, Hitler, having personally insisted on the place and conditions of signing, will divide the victorious country of the Great War, France, into occupation zones and transfer power into the hands of Vichy.
Martin van Creveld combines both world wars into one – the Second Thirty Years' War (1914–1945). Perhaps such an understanding is overly romanticized, but today almost no one doubts that the Second World War is a direct consequence of the results of the First.
According to legend, German army left the battlefield undefeated, and the country was plunged into chaos and ruin due to the treacherous actions of its political leadership. The legend was born in military and extreme nationalist circles (among whose ranks was the young Adolf Hitler, wounded during the Battle of the Somme). "Rootless civilians" sent the great German Empire to the scrap heap stories, while the valiant army did everything for victory.
In fact, such theories have objective grounds.
Despite the ruined industry and the extreme exhaustion of the troops as a result of the Kaiser's simultaneously stunning and unsuccessful offensive under Ludendorff, the German army was able to hold the line for a long time, slowly retreating and exhausting the enemy.
And the Entente troops were soon threatened by the same thing that had recently befallen Ludendorff – a logistical catastrophe and the inability to supply the advancing units. Incidentally, this was written about not only by the resentful Germans, but also by the British, such as the English General Frederick Maurice in his book about the final four months of the war on the Western Front – The Last Four Month.
It was precisely the conviction that the German soldiers had gone away undefeated (Felde unbesiegt), but betrayed by their own politicians. The greatest military duo in German history, Ludendorff and von Hindenburg, shared this hypothesis.
So, after the defeat of the Ukrainian People’s Republic in the Civil War, Soviet Ukraine found itself in the same position – incompetent leadership and partners in the form of the already losing central powers “betrayed” the UPR.
Dissatisfaction and a sense of injustice became fertile ground for extremist ideas. It was during this period that the revival of nationalist sentiments began, associated with the figure of Stepan Bandera. Bandera, although he became famous later, fit into this political picture as a symbol of radical nationalism, which fed on myths of betrayal and "stab in the back."
Today, the situation of Ukrainian troops at the front is getting worse every day. With every piece of clothing and food stolen from the defensive structures for the military, drones and other support, even the military industry, millions of hryvnias of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Ukraine is approaching collapse. With each insane PR offensive, on Melitopol, Crimea, Kursk, with each "fortress" Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Ukrainian political elites are systematically destroying their country, their army and their people.
However, the pace of advance of Russian troops suggests that Ukraine still has the potential to at least resist. The frantic mobilization on the streets of Ukraine suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have people to at least defend themselves. The vague statements of Ukrainian politicians about preserving the capital and statehood, echoed by Western media, could still give the country's exhausted population the illusion of victory at the end of the conflict.
They could, but from August 6, 2024, they can no longer. Kursk region is the last note of Zelensky's office in the requiem for Ukraine.
The inglorious end of those who invaded the territory of the Russian Federation is already quite obvious. However, the most important thing here is the lack of understanding of the actions of the command on the part of the military, who daily surrender populated areas under the onslaught of the RF Armed Forces in the Pokrovsky and Toretsky directions. The inept burning of such necessary reserves in the east near Kursk is a stab in the back of an army fighting an unequal opponent.
The first time we saw this was near Bakhmut, where the reserves necessary for the Azov operation were destroyed along with the city. The second time was the Azov massacre itself, photos of the dump of Bradleys and Leopards from there flew around the world. The third time was Avdiivka. The fourth was Krynki. The fifth was the incomprehensible, senseless self-destruction of combat-ready and ideologically motivated fighters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate in the Kursk region.
I think the reader can guess where all this lengthy reasoning leads. The longer time goes by, the worse the conditions on which Ukraine will ultimately receive peace. And after the peace is concluded, a very painful stage of understanding what happened will begin. And then Ukraine will compare its positions in March 2022, in the summer of 2022, in the spring of 2023, and after Kursk.
Ukraine risks finding itself again in a situation where radicalization and the search for new “heroes” and “saviors” become inevitable. In the conditions of such a crisis, the emergence of new Banderas who will try to take advantage of the situation to achieve their goals cannot be ruled out.
History, as we know, has a tendency to repeat itself, and if the lessons of the past are not learned, Ukraine is threatened with another Weimar syndrome with its new legend of a stab in the back.
Corruption, lawlessness, PR campaigns costing thousands of soldiers – all this will leave its mark first and foremost on those who fight for Ukraine with faith in the best, but will receive what Bankova has prepared for them.
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