Demographer on solving the problem of fertility: unconditional maternity capital in the amount of 2 million rubles

In recent years, the demographic situation in Russia has raised serious concerns. One of the key problems is the low birth rate, which leads to an aging population with its subsequent decline.

In 2022, the total fertility rate in Russia was about 9,8 per 1000 people, one of the lowest rates in recent decades.

In turn, the generation replacement rate, which allows maintaining a stable population, must be at least 2,1 children per woman. However, in Russia this figure does not exceed 1,5. In 2023, this figure was 1,41.

The decline in the birth rate in our country, as in many developed countries, is associated with several factors, including economic and social problems, uncertainty about the future, high housing costs, changing values ​​among young people, etc.

All this leads to natural population decline, which creates additional challenges for the socio-economic development of the country.
Demographer Alexey Raksha spoke about what our country needs to get out of the current situation.

According to the expert, Russia should not count on natural growth through the so-called “contagion of large families.” Something similar happened in Israel, when its citizens, looking at the large families of Orthodox Jews, also took their example from them.

In some regions of Russia, a similar trend is already present. However, as the expert put it, it will take 100 years for our country to reach the required level in this way.

A much more effective way, according to Raksha, is financial incentives from the state.

The demographer noted that maternity capital must be provided for the second and third child. Moreover, it must be unconditional, regardless of the age of the parents and their social status.

In this case, the amount of payments should be no less than 1,5 - 2 million rubles, which is comparable to 12-15 square meters of living space in a large city.

In total, according to specialist calculations, to increase the birth rate by approximately 15%, the state will need about 1 trillion 200 million rubles per year. This is about 0,7% of the Russian budget.

Comments

[kind]

In this case, the amount of payments should be no less than 1,5 - 2 million rubles, which is comparable to 12-15 square meters of living space in a large city

Tajiks and Uzbeks have already begun demographic work in Russia, against the backdrop of this message.

[Ingvar 72]

The fact of the matter is that only indigenous peoples should receive maternity capital and other goodies from the state. Those who received citizenship after 91 should not receive the same benefits as the indigenous population. They should also be affected by the right to vote. They have their own national state.
You are welcome to live and work, but there is no choice or election.

[your1970]

should only be received by indigenous peoples.
They have their own national state.
As we already got tired of everything with the formula - “Indigenous people”.
Well, at least one would think that being tied to a national state is utter stupidity!
Entering it, it turns out - suddenly for such people they are like Kurds and gypsies automatically will indigenous people of the Russian Federation because they have no state at all.
But you have to think about it, yeah...

[Ingvar 72]

Seryozha, have you forgotten how to read? I wrote "Indigenous Peoples", not a people. And the reference to Kurds and Gypsies is stupid. I think you will understand if you think about it.
What do you disagree with, can you formulate it clearly? Do you think that Tajiks, Armenians and our other recent compatriots who recently received citizenship have the right to determine the vector of development of my and your Motherland, while they have their own national state? Seriously?

[your1970]

Once again - if you carefully read the proposed formula - you will see there not only Kurds and Gypsies, but also some Bushmen
I'm not happy with Tajiks - jointly with this schizophrenic formula.
Is that clearer??

[Ingvar 72]

With what formula, Seryozha? Can you be clearer?

[your1970]

All the same, Igoresha! You know her very well....
"Indigenous people are people whose ancestors lived in the USSR and do not have their own National State outside the Russian Federation"
Not verbatim - these woodpeckers move words there.
They make it for the Russians, but they don’t want to delve into the meaning.
So they drag it through - the Kurds/Gypsies will become indigenous peoples. Automatically.

[Ingvar 72]

And now who are the Kurds and the Gypsies? What are you talking about, Seryozha? Why are you picking on them, the problem of the global is not in them.

[your1970]

Why are you picking on them, the problem of the global is not in them.
Of course, the problem is that THINK no one wants what will come out of such solutions to problems...
You don’t even have to go far - please see a typical example 3 posts above:
"They have their own nation state."
Because if such an amendment passes, they will come EVERYTHING Kurds from Central Asia. Because their ancestors lived on the territory of the Russian Federation (in the Saratov region in particular) since the 1970s.
And they will receive EVERYTHING buns - how ROOT people of the Russian Federation.
The gypsies in their background are the Germans of the 1960s
Then, Igoresha, you will moan - you apparently haven’t encountered them....

[Ingvar 72]

You are a strange person, Seryozha. I’m talking about solving a problem, but you’re looking for flaws that don’t exist in reality.
Have you heard somewhere from me a proposal to allocate autonomy to the Gypsies and Kurds?
Have you heard from me a proposal to deprive the citizenship or limit the rights of Armenians, Azeris and other nations that lived with us before 91? You're getting old

[your1970]

You're looking for flaws that don't exist in real life.

For the slow-witted - 4(Four!!!) times they tried to push through this formula.

Have you heard somewhere from me a proposal to allocate autonomy to the Gypsies and Kurds? mmmm .....
Whose is this
"only indigenous peoples should receive"?
You don't understand again MANIPULATION with the definition "indigenous peoples"?

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

You can argue about this problem and maternal capital as much as you like. But if the village is not revived, there will be no birth rate. Only villages and villages had large families and healthy children. And villages are dying out. There are no jobs or normal social conditions in the villages. Everyone is rushing to big cities.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Andrey Nikolaevich

But if the village is not revived, there will be no birth rate.

If you studied history well, which I have huge doubts about, then you must remember that at one time humanity was quite prolific and increased in number even without villages. Maybe you should rack your brains and understand that the increase in labor productivity has led to the fact that so many rural residents are not needed. And based on this, try to solve the problem, and not drive the country back into the 19th century. But who am I telling this to? There mental development is at the kindergarten level.

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

“you”, “mental development”... It feels like you are from kindergarten, sitting on the potty and writing...

[Sumotori_380]

In the movies only if they had healthy children

[Sumotori_380]

Where will work come from in the villages?

[Vrotkompot]

5 years of residence in the country, citizenship and children born in the Russian Federation - this is already enough. How will this family differ from the indigenous one?

[Ingvar 72]

Five years is not a long time, and why even give out citizenship today? We need workers, not new citizens and their dependent families.

[Sergey Pankrashin]

According to the Constitution, the institution of citizenship is one and the same for everyone, regardless of the grounds for its acquisition. This norm is included in Chapter 1, which is unchangeable. In our country, the law is already turning into a pure convention, so you want to aggravate the situation. This is a direct path to legal nihilism and the collapse of the state, the collapse of its management system. If you don’t like Uzbeks, don’t give them citizenship, that’s all, don’t create unnecessary problems.

[Ingvar 72]

Come on, they changed it not too long ago, and nothing happened. And this time most people will truly support.

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

Ingvar 72, citizenship, Constitution... This is all good and wonderful. But there is a very strict system - the personnel department. And there is a strict and unofficial selection. It was the same in the Soviet Union.

[Machito]

Capitalists swear - they measure everything with money.
To solve the demographic problem, Russia needs a different political and economic model of the state - a socialist model. Women do not need handouts for children born, but confidence in the future, well-paid work, stability, free housing, as in the USSR, free medicine and education, the absence of migrant criminals on the streets, etc.

[Escariot]

No. There is no free housing or social guarantees in Afghanistan, but the birth rate is high.
Well, or like in the USA where there is capitalism, transgender people and also a positive balance of natural reproduction of the population.

[Sumotori_380]

What else are they supposed to do in Afghanistan? And extra hands on the farm wouldn't hurt. And taking care of children is easy - put a flatbread in their teeth, put a tattered T-shirt on them - and that's it. Education? Medicine? Inshallah

[Ingvar 72]

I agree in part, it’s not a matter of the social model, it’s a matter of ideology in general. In Germany during the Reich, the cult of motherhood and large families was also developed. Before the revolution, we also did not have problems with the birth rate, because Orthodoxy and Russianness were also a kind of ideology.
Today it does not exist, or rather today there is an ideology of consumption and selfishness. And this is cultivated to this day.
That’s why no matter how much money you pay, they won’t give birth.

[Kronos]

You probably don’t know that the Nazis never managed to achieve a high birth rate.

[Ingvar 72]

Who told you that it failed? Or are you judging the birth rate of Germany in the last years of the war?

[ARIONkrsk]

Quote: Bearded

Capitalists swear - they measure everything with money.
To solve the demographic problem, Russia needs a different political and economic model of the state - a socialist model. Women do not need handouts for children born, but confidence in the future, well-paid work, stability, free housing, as in the USSR, free medicine and education, the absence of migrant criminals on the streets, etc.

This is all not true, I have many relatives and among them there are a lot of child frees, despite the fact that they are all very wealthy and have everything, they go crazy with fat, but they don’t give birth to children.

[Evgeny_4]

Why isn't it true?
I have many friends who want a second and third. But there is no normal housing, no salaries, no confidence in the future.
There is no way to relieve yourself a little by giving it to your grandparents for a while. Since the retirement age has been raised, and instead of babysitting their grandchildren, they go to work 5 years longer.

[Sumotori_380]

Apparently, they don't want it well. I have a friend from Dagestani, living in a dorm in a 16-meter room with his wife and two daughters, and he got a son

[Evgeny_4]

Dogs have enough space in a kennel.

[Sumotori_380]

A bad dancer always has testicles in the way

[Evgeny_4]

What does it have to do with it?
Or do you think that breeding on 18 square meters is cool!
Well, I'm sorry. Be fruitful.

[Sumotori_380]

I give an example that living conditions do not affect demography

[Nemchinov Vl]

Quote: Bearded

Capitalists swear - they measure everything with money.
To solve the demographic problem, Russia needs a different political and economic model of the state - a socialist model. Women do not need handouts for children born, but confidence in the future, well-paid work, stability, free housing, as in the USSR, free medicine and education, the absence of migrant criminals on the streets, etc.

agree !!!
but I would also add (like in the USSR), - kindergartens and nurseries (!). Children's health camps, recreation centers and complexes (like "Artek" or the former "Cascade" in Alushta !!!), with vouchers available for parents (for a penny), from half to 3/4 of which would be paid by the state enterprise where the parents work!!!. And he clarified that medicine according to the Semashko system (!)And not castrated-reformed as now in the Russian Federation or Ukraine...!!!

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Bearded

To solve the demographic problem, Russia needs a different political and economic model of the state - a socialist model. Women do not need handouts for children born, but confidence in the future, well-paid work, stability, free housing, as in the USSR, free medicine and education, the absence of migrant criminals on the streets, etc.

And all this is not measured by money? Or did you immediately decide to jump into the second phase of communism?

[Sumotori_380]

Don't we have free healthcare now? Or free education?

[Sumotori_380]

Free housing in the USSR was different. Some lived in a barracks, some in a dorm, some in a communal apartment, some in a two-room apartment in a Khrushchev-era building with five people. Not everyone lived three in a three-room apartment of 80 meters with a view of Tverskaya, as they show in the movies

[Sumotori_380]

A well-paid job? Some secretary or dispatcher in 85 was paid 130-140 rubles. If you recalculate at the vodka exchange rate, that's about 16 thousand today. Not much.

[Sumotori_380]

Migrants are criminals, a relatively new phenomenon. And the birth rate has been falling since the blessed 60s. When, by the way, everything you listed was in full growth

[Escobar]

Yeah, and the developers will immediately increase the price of housing and it will again be unaffordable, only even more so for those who don’t have children. It turns out that this is not birth support, but some kind of tax on childlessness.

[igorbrsv]

It would be better, instead of a tax on childlessness, to consult with psychologists about why people don’t want children and how to fix it without cash injections. Money should be an incentive in the end, not an incentive to earn money. We probably have some kind of family institution. What are they doing there

[Ingvar 72]

A tax on eggs is also needed, but only in conjunction with other instruments

[Nemchinov Vl]

Quote: Ingvar 72

A tax on eggs is also needed, but only in conjunction with other instruments

About what our country needsto get out of this situation, demographer Alexey Raksha said.

.
I wonder how many children the demographer Raksha has in his family...?!! Is this his only family... or his second/third...?!! How many children did he manage (smog) put on your feet?!! ... and what did they achieve..?!!

... Well, just interesting, this is general demagoguery with a pretense of originality (like ordinary deputies), or deep life position, supported by personal life experience ...? !!
...
otherwise we were talking at school:

write on the walls of toilets - no wonder,
among ..Aries, we are all poets,
among poets, we are .... (like no one else)

[Ingvar 72]

I have five children from two marriages. And there are plenty of childless acquaintances living for their own pleasure. I understand what I'm talking about.

[Sumotori_380]

Eggs go well in the compartment - with chicken)

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: igorbrsv

consulted with psychologists

You need to consult with them. Because only the insane can talk nonsense that this problem can be corrected without cash injections.

[igorbrsv]

. You need to consult with them. Because only the insane can

Did you teach geography well? Won't you get lost? You will still poke me and advise me who to contact. There are obvious health problems

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: igorbrsv

Did you teach geography well? Won't you get lost? You'll keep poking and advising me. There are obvious health problems

It's your problem. Children need housing, food, clothing, treatment, leisure, education. And now tell me, storyteller, how you will provide all this with your chatter.

[igorbrsv]

One of the problems is that at one time the standard school uniform was abolished. This led to the fact that peers began to mock those who were dressed worse, whose parents could not afford clothes from famous brands or famous couturiers. Now with the advent of all kinds of electronic devices, this phenomenon has become even worse. After the collapse of the USSR, we had a large difference in income between different segments of the population. This perhaps explains why citizens in rural areas show a higher birth rate than in the city. The income gap is smaller. And this problem cannot be solved with a one-time reward. You still think that psychologists are not able to partially influence demographics. I gave only one example. I don’t know if they teach the subject “Norms of Behavior, Ethics and Morals” now. There's a lot of useful stuff there. Even advertising of large families could have an impact. What should I tie it to? Yes, at least to religion. There are many believers in Russia. At least let them tie it to reincarnation in children. The main thing is to achieve results.
Storyteller... Do you think everything can be bought?

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: igorbrsv

You still think that psychologists are not able to partially influence demographics.

I didn't say that. But their influence is nothing compared to the influence of the economy. Finally, understand that economics is the basis. And if we do not provide a sufficiently high level of well-being for the family, then no psychologists will help.

[igorbrsv]

I also don’t remember arguing that there is no need for financial incentives at all. I suggest not to give for the first one, the one who wants it will start it anyway. Then you can “use the savings” to double the payment for the third person. But it’s better not to give to the fourth and subsequent ones, in order to prevent a skew in the ratio of nationalities. Otherwise, it is quite possible to assume that in forty years everyone will have a certain identical skin tone and a fashionable beard. Or with hereditary diseases due to parental alcohol use

[Sumotori_380]

Problem - did they introduce new Russian spelling this morning?

[Sumotori_380]

They don't give birth so that the child won't be bullied at school because he has an iPhone that isn't the latest model? I've never seen such a funny version

[Sumotori_380]

There are relatively few truly church-going Orthodox Christians in Russia

[Ross xnumx]

Yes, these calculations are understandable, just as it is clear that soon, with such inflation, one and a half to two million will become equal to today’s hundred to two hundred thousand...

[Blackmokona]

Quote: ROSS 42

Yes, these calculations are understandable, just as it is clear that soon, with such inflation, one and a half to two million will become equal to today’s hundred to two hundred thousand...

This is solved by indexing to the level of real inflation. But in any case, all these conversations are empty, because there is a war and there is no money for any long-term programs.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: BlackMokona

But in any case, all these conversations are empty, because there is a war and there is no money for any long-term programs.

In any case, this is empty talk, even if there is no one. Because capitalism is competition, the pursuit of profit and the private nature of appropriating the results of social labor. So relax, take a comfortable seat and watch the Titanic sink.

[Ivan F]

“At the same time, the amount of payments should be no lower than 1,5 - 2 million rubles,” - apparently someone really wants to increase payments to visiting specialists and their families. However.

[Vadim S]

They should, but they don’t! There is plenty of money for war games, they give it to everyone, just go there, but not for children! A child benefit of 50 rubles is a slap in the face! Adequate people will not want to create poverty. When our lands, which we can no longer hold, are populated by slanted and black ones, then our tops will groan, but it will be too late! And then the bais and khans will occupy the top.

[ARIONkrsk]

Quote: Vadim S

They should, but they don’t! There is plenty of money for war games, they give it to everyone, just go there, but not for children! A child benefit of 50 rubles is a slap in the face! Adequate people will not want to create poverty. When our lands, which we can no longer hold, are populated by slanted and black ones, then our tops will groan, but it will be too late! And then the bais and khans will occupy the top.

We will be the first to groan, the top people in their expensive areas will be the last to groan.

[Evgeny_4]

The top people with the money they earned will live abroad.

[Sumotori_380]

They cancelled 50 rubles three years ago.

[Poru4ik]

It seems that the irreplaceable specialists will make this decision with a bang

[Anatoly Tsypushkin]

we need to give people the opportunity to earn money because unearned money is evil. But housing needs to be made available through social rent, for example

[VLR]

Absolutely right. Unearned “free” money corrupts and contributes to the emergence and growth of dependent attitudes. It is necessary to make sure that ANY working person, regardless of specialty and position, is confident that his salary will be enough for housing, food, recreation and raising a child. It’s not an equalization: someone will buy a modest apartment on the outskirts and a used car, someone will buy a luxurious apartment in the center and a premium car. But anyone will be sure: as long as he works, he and his children will not go hungry and will not end up on the street. Where's the money? State ones are still on foreign accounts. And even more - from the oligarchs who robbed the people.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Anatoly Tsypushkin

We need to give people the opportunity to earn money because unearned money is evil.

Is it in a capitalist economy where there is competition and therefore savings on the ordinary worker?

[Pravodel]

a more effective way, according to Raksha, is financial incentives from the state.

What kind of demographer is proposing such idiotic forms of increasing the birth rate is completely unclear. If money was everything, then the countries of the golden billion would experience a baby boom. But everything is just the opposite: rich countries have low birth rates, poor countries have high birth rates.
Money matters little in demographics!!!

[Ingvar 72]

Russia breaks out of this rule - the income of the population is low, and few people give birth.

[Sumotori_380]

Low incomes in some Afghanistan

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: The Truth

But everything is just the opposite: rich countries have low birth rates, poor countries have high birth rates.

You are just a fairy tale character. So what if the country is rich? Firstly, wealth is unevenly distributed there. Secondly, there are a lot of other things that were influenced by a more developed economy. The public consciousness there is different. And it becomes like this for everyone at a certain level of the economy. In general, in short, capitalism does not allow the birth rate to increase in developed countries. Because you need more money per person, and capitalism means competition and saving on the average worker.

[Pravodel]

Dear IS-80_RVGK2 (Makar), please pay attention to the general rules for conducting a discussion with a stranger, in which only polite treatment is allowed. Even if you don't agree with something. Address you, you, etc. to a stranger in a cultural environment is unattractive and borders on rudeness.
Now to the point.
1. “So what if the country is rich? Firstly, wealth is distributed unevenly there.”
The uneven distribution of wealth does not change the fundamental laws of demography. Moreover, I will tell you that there are no countries in the world with an equal distribution of wealth. And this applies to both developed and developing countries. The only country that tried to experiment with universal equality no longer exists, because... It also turned out that even if everyone is equal, some are always more equal.
2. "... there are a lot of other things that were influenced by a more developed economy. There the public consciousness is different... capitalism does not allow the birth rate to increase in developed countries."
I agree that the issue of the influence of public consciousness is fundamental for demography.
But even here you, dear IS-80_RVGK2 (Makar), are mistaken in the connection between demography and capitalism. For reference. In Russia at the beginning of the twentieth century. the birth rate was such that, according to the forecast of D.I. Mendeleev, by 1950 the country should have had a population of 282,7 million people, and in 2000 – 594,3 million people. And this is under the conditions of capitalism in Russia. Mendeleev's prediction did not come true. But this is not Mendeleev’s fault, but a consequence of historical processes in Russia in the twentieth century.
3. "...capitalism does not allow the birth rate to increase in developed countries. Because more money is needed per person, and capitalism is competition and savings on the ordinary worker."
On the question of the role of money in demography, see what is written above. Money is not the most important thing in demographics. Money has little effect on demography, as evidenced by the difference in fertility in developed and developing countries. Demographics are most influenced by other processes, which, given the structure of the site, it is not possible to tell you about here.

[Sumotori_380]

Google what is demo transition. Then come back to the discussion.

[Pravodel]

If you have no knowledge and only google the laws of demography, then there is no point in arguing with you. Keep googling, You can also shug and shmuggle. It's all the same thing

[Sumotori_380]

I didn't write to you, but to your opponent. Because I share your point of view. P.S. Googling is an established expression. For non-professionals - I doubt that professional demographers are participating in our discussion - it is a completely adequate way of assimilating new knowledge. P.P.S. Less pathos, sir - and people will be drawn to you. For a person named "rrr", you are excessively arrogant

[Kronos]

So they are not really rich. It is very expensive to raise a child there, expensive housing and taxes, no accessible kindergartens and long maternity leave.

[Sumotori_380]

He seems to be a smart demographer, I sometimes read him. But I was also surprised by the recipe.

[VLR]

Maternity capital should be provided under the terms of a social contract. Upon reaching adulthood, a child who is not registered with the police or a narcologist. Why on earth should society pay for an antisocial hooligan who terrorizes an entire school or even a neighborhood, for a drug addict, or for an individual who, for Ukrainian 5 thousand rubles, is trying to carry out a terrorist attack on the railway. And, of course, we must pay for future breadwinners, defenders of the Fatherland, future mothers. Disabled people are already on lifelong state support.

[Sumotori_380]

And cancel pensions? What good is a pensioner to the state - neither to plow, nor to give birth, nor to guard?)

[Reklastik]

The decline in the birth rate in our country, as in many developed countries, is associated with several factors, including economic and social problems, uncertainty about the future, and the high cost of housing

- this is a normal set for “developed” capitalist states...

[igorbrsv]

. as in many developed countries, it is associated with several factors, including economic and social problems, uncertainty about the future

Developed countries and economic factors affecting fertility
It's a real puzzle. Maybe the reason is something else?

. In total, according to specialist calculations, to increase the birth rate by approximately 15%, the state will need about 1 trillion 200 million rubles per year. This is about 0,7% of the Russian budget.

There are 150 million of us with an average life expectancy of 75 years (this is not exact, this is for ease of counting). We need at least 2 million children a year. 2 million per child, that’s 4 trillion. But that's not the point. We need to understand the reason. Those who don't want children won't have them. This means that something is wrong in the upbringing. Those couples who have two may stop there, considering the third a burden. Cash incentives will certainly help to some extent. You just need to stimulate it wisely. Nothing for the first child. For the second - 2 million. For the third - 4 million. For the fourth and subsequent ones there is also NOTHING as for the first, because this will lead to an imbalance, including along national lines. A family that wants a fourth child can either afford it, or will have one without any money, just like the rest of the first. Plus, to receive benefits, you need to pass a test for a genetic predisposition to diseases and be compatible, if we do not want five disabled people to be born in any family, due to the fact that they do not know how to count. What if the child was given birth and abandoned? The certificates had restrictions and provided for these points. And restrictions must be maintained.
From my example. We have drunkards who gave birth to five children. All are unhealthy. They got drunk. One lived with them, two in the orphanage. The fourth one fell under the certificate. We arranged the purchase of a rickety hut in the village for the amount of the certificate (with the help of a real estate office, of course). In fact, a hut with plots of 100 thousand was registered for 400, 200 to realtors, 100 given to drunks. They drank the money away. We gave birth to our fifth child. And again the certificate. The first one grew up by this time, the fifth one went to an orphanage
1. You need to find the root cause with the fall in the birth rate.
2. Prevent sick people from giving birth. Children are a responsible decision.
3. Cash incentives need to be thought through more carefully, and not just added. And here psychologists should give advice on proper stimulation.
Sorry it's so much. I don’t know why I got hooked

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: igorbrsv

1. You need to find the root cause with the fall in the birth rate.

Why look for her? It’s stupidly economically profitable nowadays to have one, or at most two.

[igorbrsv]

So not everyone starts the first one. Have you heard about the baby free movement? Freedom from children translates. They are pushing it from the west. Probably Soros

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: igorbrsv

So not everyone starts the first one. Have you heard about the baby free movement? Freedom from children translates. They are pushing it from the west. Probably Soros

I don’t know who is pushing what, but it’s not this nonsense that determines everything, but economics.

[Sumotori_380]

More likely, reptilians. They have a base on the other side of the Earth - well, the one closer to the elephants.

[Sumotori_380]

The root cause has long been found. A change in the type of population reproduction caused by the growth of welfare and social protection of the population and a decrease in mortality

[Lysenko_Sergey]

Capitalists swear - they measure everything with money. 
To solve the demographic problem, Russia needs a different political and economic model of the state - a socialist model. Women do not need handouts for children born, but confidence in the future, well-paid work, stability, free housing, as in the USSR, free medicine and education, the absence of migrant criminals on the streets, etc.

1. A priori - the absence of any criminals, both visitors and locals.

2. A priori: only women can increase the birth rate. And women will give birth only if they are financially and socially protected. Protection can be provided by the family or the State. Our families are small these days, so it’s only THE STATE! Capitalism does not need children in principle, because they are COSTS.

3. 30-40-50 year olds cannot significantly increase the birth rate. The birth rate can be significantly increased; 5-7-10 year olds, former schoolgirls and students can give birth to 18-19-20 children.
This is the homespun truth!

4. Young mothers need social housing (under a rental agreement for specialized residential premises) with an area according to the needs of the family (large family!). We need nurseries and kindergartens, incl. XNUMX/XNUMX.

And so on ...

PS: You cannot buy an apartment for a large family with 2 million maternity capital. It’s not interesting to take on a mortgage for which you’ll be paying off until your grave.

[Escariot]

And who will take the money from? My personal income tax has already been increased this year, isn’t it enough for you and you want the state to rob me even more?
It would be better if taxes were reduced (including on real estate and its construction) so that apartments would become cheaper, and not all these socialist experiments of yours.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote from Escariot

And who will take the money from?

Yes, this is all nonsense and chatter. Migrants will be brought in. That's the solution to the problem.

[Sumotori_380]

There are mostly pennies here. You won't get any sympathy from them)

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Lysenko_Sergey

PS: You cannot buy an apartment for a large family with 2 million maternity capital. It’s not interesting to take on a mortgage for which you’ll be paying off until your grave.

Well, that's all. There is simply no solution other than importing migrants.

[NG inform]

Is anyone stopping you from having children? There really is no demographic problem.

[NG inform]

Evolution is very simple: if you haven't given birth to an average of 5 children, you're extinct. And it follows that if you plan to die out, your opinion about the structure of society is meaningless.
In this regard, if you don't have many children, don't buzz about demographics, it's just empty talk on the part of impotent people.

[Sergej1972]

Raksha is now such a fashionable “independent” demographer. It is interesting to read, although other demographers often criticize it.

[NG inform]

Raksha is incompetent and talks nonsense.

[igorbrsv]

If the state suddenly decides to pay millions of rubles for children without parents limiting their spending, then this is a different level of relationship between potential parents and the state. A woman gives birth - the state pays a reward. Let then the indispensable condition be indispensable genetic testing for the ability to produce healthy offspring, timely registration and monitoring during pregnancy, the absence of contraindications for childbirth, and a delay in payment of remuneration for birth for three years. Because it is during this period that the mortality rate and the detection of hidden diseases are high. And then if anything happens (if the mother leaves), then both the state and we will take care of it. Then you won’t be sorry for millions for a healthy child, not from drunks, and not from people with genetic diseases. And limit yourself to paying for the first three or four. Otherwise some will start to “try.” Migrants for example

[ivan2022]

Firstly, everything will be stolen anyway.
Secondly, Russian people don’t want either work or children. And there is no point in leading him astray. He wants everything to be cool and entertaining.....

If you give a choice between a right and wrong option for anything, a Russian will always choose the wrong one. For depravity has already reached the marrow of even the bones, and not just the head

[Oleg133]

Here, without further ado, Russian patriots, while others are not allowed into the State Duma, are pushing through a law on domestic violence.
You will have a strong family and fertility.

The state screams at men - don’t have children. For this you will be fined - half your property and 25% of your salary.
The number of divorces in some places is equal to marriages

[Esaul]

For a family, the most important thing is housing, and for a large family, large housing. So we shouldn’t throw money away, but help families with children purchase housing, not at exorbitant mortgage prices, but, for example, make an interest-free installment plan. If a third and subsequent child is born, then pay off partially or completely the cost of housing, depending on the number of children. Well, do this only for the indigenous peoples of Russia who have Russian citizenship from birth.

[Esaul]

Perhaps it is necessary to create a state construction company that will build housing for large families, where they can move in with, for example, two children. At the birth of each subsequent child, the state pays off, for example, 33% of the cost of this housing. Thus, having given birth to 5 children, the family will essentially receive housing for free. And since the developer is state-owned, there will be no need to overpay huge amounts of money to greedy commercial construction companies.

[Escariot]

But it’s not the state that will pay off, but the taxpayers, who will also raise personal income tax under this tune

[Sumotori_380]

I love stories about state companies working for free

[newtc7]

A ban on abortion for any reason other than medical is a threat to the life of the mother.
Or introducing the cost of an abortion - the same as maternity capital, and more and more for each subsequent killed child. And at the same time - life sentence for illegal abortion.
And the problem with the birth rate will be solved immediately. But for such decisions our government is too pro-Sorr and too left-liberal.

[Sumotori_380]

You're just out of the loop. We've been through this before. The rise of illegal abortions, maternal mortality + the imprisonment of guilty doctors. Who, by the way, were trained for eight years at state expense. That's why they cancelled it. It's all happened before. P.S. The number of abortions in the Russian Federation has decreased by 20 times over the past 4 years - without any bans. So don't get into this area.

[Vasily_Ostrovsky]

Quote: “Something similar happened in Israel, when its citizens, looking at the large families of Orthodox Jews, also took their example from them.”
Why "was"? In Israel, on average there are 3 children per 1 woman, and in Orthodox families there are generally 5 children per 1 woman.
BUT! The children of the Orthodox practically do not participate in the economy, just like the Orthodox themselves... And in the country as a whole they make up about 1/3...

[Alexander Ra]

It is doubtful that swearing. capital gives something systematically. Why does this topic never include a comparison of birth rates by region and the region’s contribution to the state budget? Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug is not the norm. It is assumed that mat. capital is a targeted positive feedback loop to increase fertility. Non-linearity - the difference in the birth rate and contribution to the budget by region triggers a mechanism for the flow of money across the regions from places with a large contribution and lower birth rate to territories with the opposite indicators. For the central regions, this is already a sign of the presence of a negative feedback for fertility, which contradicts the very idea. If about 80% are Russians, then the corresponding conclusions. Recognizing difference does not mean inciting difference.

[Glagol1]

Money alone will not solve the problem. Here, from a certain amount, I think from a million, fraudulent schemes will begin. I would think about 800 thousand, coupled with the residency requirement. CO=this is that both parents were born in Russia. Let’s cut off the cloud of combinators, 800 thousand in Moscow will not be enough, well, it is, but still not a penny, and in most regions you can build half a house. Not big, without finishing and technology, but still. This is how I would do it. CO is definitely needed. Otherwise, we will simply finance the import of Central Asians.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

What are you even talking about? Problems with the lousy birth rate will be solved at the expense of migrants. There are simply no other workable options in a capitalist economy.

[Tailpipe]

All these “experts” who moan only and exclusively about money are either idiots or outright enemies of Russia. Without a NATIONAL policy, all this money is just a giveaway to migrants and nothing more! Having many children is in the head, not in the pocket. For example, poor Filipinos, Bengalis, and all of Africa are breeding like cockroaches! And no one pays them...

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Tail pipe

For example, poor Filipinos, Bengalis, and all of Africa are breeding like cockroaches! And no one pays them...

Before you write nonsense, look at what is happening with demographics across the planet. And get it into your head that economics is the basis that determines a little less than everything. Including birth rates. If Africa had an economy like ours, it would have the same birth rate, give or take.

[NG inform]

Of course not. Culture determines everything. The birth rate in all northern countries has been deliberately reduced because it is economically advantageous. And it is also not advantageous for Russia as a country to increase the birth rate.

[Sumotori_380]

Do they have an advanced national policy in the Philippines, Bengal and all of Africa? Or is it not about that?

[Knell wardenheart]

An increase in the birth rate by 15%...it seems that someone is not catching up at all with what the competition for resources and between models will be like in this century. We need 250 million souls by 2050-2060 and not a 15% increase in the birth rate.

[IS-80_RVGK2]

Quote: Knell Wardenheart

We need 250 million souls by 2050-2060 and not a 15% increase in the birth rate.

You need this. But they don't need it. They will bring the country to disaster, and then run away.

[Sumotori_380]

Well then, Canada is definitely screwed!

[igorbrsv]

As for me personally, I would have a third child without any monetary rewards and even if I lived in a cardboard box. It's just how I was raised. Each person's DNA is unique, with its own set of genes and a series of mutations. I have a set of genes from all my ancestors, and if I don’t continue the family line, it will be interrupted. The entire line of my ancestors will then die with me. And they all adapted in vain, survived, fought for their homeland, and died protecting their offspring. This would be a betrayal on my part. I was also raised in such a way that I need a son, a successor to the family name, who in the future, with his last name, will prove which of the branches turned out to be more successful. In the meantime, I have two daughters, and if the third is also a girl, then it looks like I’ll follow the fourth

[foxes]

Only for the indigenous population of Russia.

[Ponimatel]

Now in Russia there will be no children without money. Dot.

[staer-62]

The more payments there are, the less a woman will need a husband and she will only give birth to one in order to receive goodies from the state and from her ex-husband - alimony, an apartment and also blackmail as a child. You are trying to solve the problem from the wrong end. Where do 100 percent of the divorces come from?

[NG inform]

As a real parent of many children, I will say that you shouldn't listen to those with few children about demography. They basically can't understand the problem.

[air wolf]

First drive the people into poverty, and then give birth to slaves for them for money, the law of capitalism

[the same doctor]

People who offer such things are either incompetent or biased. Why take maternity capital, which can only be spent on housing, if the child, after coming of age, can demand its return in the form of a share in the apartment and sell it? Why such help without help?
.
The more people learn about maternity capital, the less it affects the birth rate. No one needs a time bomb. It is better not to give birth at all.