Indian fifth-generation fighter: it won’t take off without Russia
So, let's talk about the fighter first, and then about Russia. As for the fighter, everything is simple: after some debate, the relevant committee of the Cabinet of Ministers of India approved the continuation of work on the creation of the fifth-generation Indian fighter AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), which should in the future become the air support of the Indian Air Force and Navy.
According to plans, it will be a single-seat, twin-engine, all-weather multi-role combat aircraft.
The Cabinet of Ministers confirmed the seriousness of its intentions by allocating 150 trillion rupees. This, by the way, is 1,8 billion dollars, very serious money. And it is planned to spend them on a set of works on the full-scale design, development, construction and flight testing of the AMCA aircraft and its subsequent certification.
The build and testing are five prototypes, AMSA project director Krishna Rajendra said. According to the agency's plans aviation development of India, the first flight of the fighter should take place somewhere around 2028. Serial production is planned to begin in 2035, and in total the Indian Air Force would like to have 7-8 squadrons of such aircraft, and considering that the Air Force operates 30 squadrons, the percentage of new generation aircraft is quite high.
However, not everyone in India shares the optimism regarding 2035. Aviation experts like the well-known Sanjeev Kumar believe that if the new aircraft goes into production, it will not be before 2040, or even later.
Why? Well, the answer is clear and his name is “Tejas”.
In case anyone has forgotten, the development of this miracle aircraft, which was supposed to replace our MiG-21, began in 1983. The project was completed by 1990, and Tejas made its first flight in 2001. That is, nothing at all, after 18 years. And after the same amount of time (19, to be precise), the Air Force accepted the first combat aircraft into its ranks. 2020 And Tejas are being produced in droves (about 20 units have already been delivered), which makes one think that 37 years is not that long.
But it’s not on credit, as they say.
Of course, no one is talking about any full-fledged replacement of the “blinking light” with this sparrow, but nevertheless: the Indians have experience in producing their own aircraft. But there are also nuances: only an inveterate Indian patriot can call “Tejas” Indian.
The engine is American, General Electric F-404-GE-IN20, but the Indians never brought their own, domestic Kaveri, to fruition. Internal equipment of the American company Martin Marietta, which is now part of the Lockheed Martin corporation. Armament of Russian companies GMKB “Vympel”, Research Institute of Instrument Engineering, “Instrument Engineering Design Bureau” and so on. Indian, frankly, is not enough.
Not everything is smooth sailing with the new AMCA project either: the first two squadrons are planned to be equipped with Mk-1 version aircraft equipped with General Electric F414 engines with a thrust of 10 kgf.
And the next five squadrons, according to the plan, will receive the AMCA Mk-2 aircraft with more powerful engines, a thrust of 11 kgf, controlled thrust vectoring and the possibility of supersonic flight in cruising engine mode. The new engine will be developed jointly with a foreign partner.
And this is where the time of doubt begins. Why? Because Tejas. Because "Kaveri". Because the Indians were never able to create their own engine.
This means that someone will have to make such an engine for India and give it to the Indians, because they will not buy it on principle. “Make in India” is a good motto, but the implementation leaves much to be desired.
And, frankly speaking, there will be no line of people willing to supply India with an engine for a new aircraft after the terrible failure of the Indian MMRCA super competition.
Meanwhile, India needs AMSA. Here we need to look at the countries with which India will have any friction, and the main one here is China. Many Indian experts say that today China is significantly ahead of India in terms of aviation, and the new aircraft should correct the situation.
Another question is what will China wait for? And won’t it release a radically modified J-20 exactly by 2040, or some hypothetical J-40?
Sanjeev Kumar: "The aircraft are required as of yesterday, given the woefully low number of squadrons with fourth generation aircraft and below, as well as the looming threat of growing Chinese aggression"
Well, let’s say, Mr. Kumar gave too much away about the “growing Chinese aggression”, so there were, are, and most likely will be frictions between India and China, but for some reason, there is no open aggression on the part of the PRC. In reality, China has enough headaches with the truly aggressive United States and its pack of allies, so India will definitely not soon rise to at least the top 10 Chinese problems.
But here is the state of the Chinese army and fleet - this is what will dragon the Indians until they can at least equal China in capabilities. And here, completely Chinese developments have had and will have an advantage over Indian purchased and localized weapons developments.
Here we need to understand such a thing as “design school”. This is a very difficult path, roughly speaking, from a plywood biplane to a strategic bomber. There are design schools in the USA, Britain, Germany, and Italy. In countries that have been building airplanes for over a hundred years. Russia also has its own and very unique KS, and it is unlikely that anyone in the world would dare to challenge this. Soviet and Russian aircraft are a separate chapter in stories world aviation and the chapter is bright and interesting.
It’s worth looking back here, and you can see that Russian aircraft designers Sikorsky, Lebedev, Gakkel, Grigorovich, Tupolev and Polikarpov did not engage in stupid reverse engineering, stupidly copying Nieuwports, Sopwiches and Fokkers, they built their own models, tested them , worked on improvements.
Yes, the aircraft industry of the Russian Empire was very undeveloped, there were no engines, there was not a lot of things, but already by the 30s, Soviet aircraft began to fly en masse using their own engines, even if they were created on the basis of imported ones. And what started after the war...
In this regard, the Chinese are great guys. Having bought the Su-27 from us, they played it safe and eventually successfully copied it, and then moved on. And they actually achieved a “five-year plan in three years,” because no one would dare call their J-20 a copy or variation of the Sukhoi Design Bureau aircraft. In the meantime, the Chinese were fighting for their “Black Eagle”, using developments on all the aircraft they could get their hands on, from the MiG 1.44 to the F-35, the peace of the sky was guarded by the Su-30MKK and Su-35 wisely purchased from Russia. But now the number of J-20s cannot be compared with the number of purchased Russian aircraft!
What did they do in India? And there they simply mastered the assembly of Russian Su-30MKI.
What's wrong with assembling imported aircraft and localizing their production on your own territory?
Nothing. But good is also not enough. An example couldn’t be simpler: how many car factories have foreigners opened in Russia before 2022? And how many are working now? Blind assembly does not give anything to the design school; in general, it only gives finished products.
A factory worker makes parts. The collector collects them into nodes. The installer installs the units in place. And so on. Not a single person at the factory that supposedly produces the aircraft can answer the question of why this unit is the way it is and how it can be improved. It was invented by completely different people.
No, the Indians are great, they are trying to install their radars, they are trying to replace Russian avionics elements with Israeli ones... But you understand, this is local. It is possible to install another radar, from another manufacturer, that is true. But along with it, it will be necessary to change the interface units with the guided weapons systems. And it is not a fact that, for example, Russian missiles will perfectly understand what the Israeli radar transmits to them.
This is how the Indians learned to assemble the T-90. But “Arjun” has so far remained an armored weakness, and it is unlikely that “Arjun-2” will be able to correct the mistakes of the first.
Indian engineers were able to install German diesel (imported again!) and Russian Kontakt-5 into their own box, but were unable to create a more or less acceptable suspension. They just don't know how. That’s why it turned out to be almost its own, but infirm. Which, we note, has been developed for 37 years.
37 is an unlucky number for Indian designers. Tank, airplane…
Let's return, by the way, to airplanes. What the Indians achieved in terms of the Tejas cannot be compared with the MiG-21, which had to be replaced. Jay versus crow.
And so, in the wake of such success as the Tejas, the Indians launched a second program to create “their own” fighter, aiming at the fifth generation. As for the timing, it is worth remembering that the development of Tejas lasted 37 years. Plus there was also a failure with the domestic Kaveri aircraft engine. So in reality, the timing of AMSA can shift to the right no worse than it did in the stories of “Arjun” and “Tejas”.
But everything could have been completely different
Remember how in 2007 India joined the Russian program to create the fifth generation fighter FGFA (Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft)? Its goal was to create a multi-role fighter based on the Russian PAK FA, which was being developed at that time. But genetic greed and the desire to bargain for more for themselves failed the Indians this time. And after successes with the T-90, BrahMos, Su-30MKI, India left the project and got a big bang. And Russia has implemented a project that now flies and fights like the Su-57. Yes, in small quantities for now, but here it is - for now.
That is, at the level of the start of its AMSA program, India could already have its fifth-generation fighter, not just “in the metal”, but on the runways of airfields, and who the hell is not joking - in the future, in factories. And there it would be possible to bargain, fortunately, there are no sanctions in India.
In general, of course, trading with India is like having an amorous affair with a tigress: both dangerous and below average pleasure. The eternal Indian dances to the point of exhaustion in the style of “Ay-lai-lai, the plane crashed, the tank doesn’t move, the machine gun doesn’t fire, you should have bought it in Europe, but it’s more expensive, but you can use it”—it’s actually starting to get boring. The Indian press constantly raised such a howl and groan before each tender that an inexperienced reader could seriously think that everything was so bad.
Well, of course, their MiG-21s are falling... Well, yes, they are falling. Half of them were beaten, they were incompetent during the entire operation. But here’s the funny thing: for some reason, MiGs assembled in India fought in emergency situations! What was produced in the USSR flew like clockwork.
But these are the terms of the game: dancing with groans every time, breaking the hands of the seller, revising the financing of projects, revising the terms of contracts. The execution freezes completely, then the Indian military arrives and begins to resolve the situation. And they often resolve it, but the question is - at what cost? Discounts, deferments, special prices...
Well, here’s the result: like in that poem about “And in our apartment... Su-57, and in yours? "Tejas"?
But in general, in fairness, I note that such dances are Indian buyers weapons suits absolutely everyone without exception. Well, this is their tradition at the genetic level - to dance to death and then calmly rob.
And it didn’t work out with Russia, so much so that it’s time to bite your elbows, because the Su-57 turned out to be a very good plane. But all the accusations against the FGFA project somehow didn’t play out, and in the end, Russia has the plane, but India does not. And China has it. However, an opinion has already been expressed in this direction here: Su-57 - fifth generation disco dancer? And so far nothing has changed.
But the engine...
Hope that the good Americans will provide the engine and allow it to be localized and produced (they gave it, they allowed it)? Yes, but excuse me, for Tejas-2 and the first two AMCA series it will be the General Electric F404-GE-F2J3, and its ancestor, the General Electric F404-GE-F1D2 was still on the F-117! And the first F404 in general F/A-18 of the first series were lifted into the air...
In general, this is not an engine for a fifth generation aircraft. Yes, things aren’t going very well for us with the AL-41F1, so this is where the crux of the matter lies: if we have problems, what should we talk about there, on the other side of the Indian border? We will resolve the issues with the engine sooner or later; here, as they say, the school decides.
But the engine is just an engine. In the case of Arjuna, even German diesel did not save. An aircraft engine requires many more systems and equipment, properly installed and debugged.
So all these millions of dollars look, of course, serious, but the possibilities of their implementation are not very good. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which is the manufacturer, seems to have already started production activities that will result in AMCA.
But will it be...
The Indian media themselves say that the aircraft of the first and second series will be different. Yes, in fact, it will be the same airframe, capable of storing 6500 kg of fuel, 1500 kg of weapons in the fuselage compartment and 5500 kg (goodbye, stealth!) on the external sling.
It turns out that the AMSA Mk.1 will fly with a General Electric F414 engine, and the Mk.2 with a more powerful engine, which is only planned to be developed jointly with the French company Safran, which was previously called Snecma.
No, there is no doubt that these Frenchmen know how to work with engines. After all, Safran, formerly Snecma, even earlier this company absorbed such famous manufacturers as Gnome&Rhône, Turbomeca and Microturbo.
The only question is, to what extent will the Safran engine be identical in weight, dimensions and dimensions to the American product from General Electric? And to what extent will it be possible to replace one engine with another? History, you know, knows many cases when they wanted one thing, but it turned out somewhat different.
So the dance begins
It’s hard to say how long it will last, but 150 trillion Indian rupees will run out sooner or later. Well, or 1,8 billion US dollars, whichever is more interesting to you. And obviously this will happen faster than 37 years will pass, as was the case in previous projects.
In general, there is a quiet suspicion that the Indians will gnaw at themselves more than once, and not just their elbows, for refusing to participate in the fighter project with Russia. Now they are at least twenty years behind, and how the Indian military sees itself overcoming such a gap, which, moreover, can grow up to 30 years.
Of course, the Chinese military will be such gentlemen that they will wait for their neighbors to finish their next generation aircraft. True, they, the Chinese, are already deploying their “Black Eagles” in Tibet, right near the Indian border, but this means absolutely nothing, doesn’t it, Mr. Vivek Ram Chaudhary, Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Air Force?
After all, a dance can go on forever, even a dance around an airplane. And, as the Indian experience shows, the result is not always important. But in cooperation with Russia there would be a result similar to the Su-30MKI or BrahMos. And now the prospect is more like Tejas 2 or Arjun 2.
By the way, it’s completely natural.
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