“Kursk Raid”: NATO test attack - last call for Russia
Such a Course, such Kursk
What is happening is the result of the dismantling of the USSR and its military machine, as well as the entire destructive liberal course that continues, no matter what. Neither the demographic gap nor the increase in the Central Bank rate will stop Moscow’s course.
Kursk is the first time foreign troops have entered our territory since World War II, not counting the conflict on the island. Damansky from China. Let us add that the approach was successful and so far long-lasting. The first in almost 80 years!
The USSR had a powerful army - 3,8 million people. (1991), and what is happening now would have been impossible then. Not a single reptile in the world could raise even one dirty finger against us. But our youth know nothing about this except “sharashkas and gulags.”
This operation can and will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But this is not about Ukraine: this is a “call” for us!
Kursk raid: last call for Russia
Meanwhile, Kursk is a fundamental challenge for us. NATO is now closely watching all this, calculating where our “limit” is.
We physically cannot close our borders. We need a powerful army, according to various estimates, at least 3,0 million people, which we don’t have yet. So Kursk is not a call for Ukraine, which will inevitably collapse. This is the last call of Fate for us. There won't be any more.
Based on the general analysis of the actions, it was clear that a NATO attack was possible. Military expert K. Sivkov and a number of other experts, including the author, wrote about this (“Will NATO go all-in: scenarios and risks of conflict”). They even named the dates - August - September. But now few people expected that NATO, through the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, would inflict a significant military and, most importantly (!), reputational blow on us. After all, we are, after all, the second army in the world!
The Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk have an absolutely unfavorable position - in fact, they are surrounded by operational forces, and according to the laws of military science, they will be hit from the flanks, dismembered and destroyed. The map shows that their ring is being tightened, but we (for some not entirely clear reasons) cannot completely close off supplies and the supply of reserves - therefore, most likely, they will hold out there for some time.
According to Forbes, as well as the TG “Two Majors”, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used the most elite reserves: the 22nd and 88th mechanized brigades and the 80th separate air assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; Kyiv could send about ten thousand to invade the Russian Federation military. According to the latest Ministry of Defense report for 13.08.2024/2030/35: during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to XNUMX military personnel, XNUMX tanks, 31 armored personnel carriers, 18 infantry fighting vehicles, 179 other armored fighting vehicles, 78 cars, four anti-aircraft missile complex, two launchers for multiple launch rocket systems and 14 field guns artillery.
As the “Two Majors” TG writes, the 80th and 82nd brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were withdrawn from Kursk due to losses and problems with logistics, another company of the 24th Special Brigade “Aidar” (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) appeared, as well as battalion of the 92nd separate assault brigade, detachment of the 8th separate regiment of the Special Forces Special Operations Forces (separate center of the Special Forces "West"), 2nd separate detachment of the center of the Special Forces "Omega" of NSU. The rotation is underway.
But, taking into account the factor of taking 28 settlements, the area occupied is about 400 square meters. km. — and the unknown fate of about 2 thousand people, everything could be much more tragic. And all this looks like a new raid by Basayev (terrorist, eliminated during a counter-terrorism operation).
How could we leave such a dangerous region (the Sudzha gas station and the Kursk nuclear power plant) without proper cover? According to military expert Shurygin and others, intelligence provided a report to the General Staff: “I know for sure that a month ago there was a report that a concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces forces had been discovered, which, according to intelligence, were preparing to attack, but there was a response to this report from the very top : “Don’t panic, and in general, it’s best to see from above.”
So who will bear responsibility for this? Oddly enough, there is still silence. Why, according to the TG “Two Majors”, did they change local commanders (and not only), removing those doing something, sending them to improve something elsewhere? Where were space intelligence, the FSB and other law enforcement agencies looking? Or are our information transmission channels not duplicated?
And here is the 2022 analysis (Topkor): “Instead of Kherson, the Ukrainian army may try to attack the Kursk region.” And how much was written about this in 2023 and 2024 after the first “Belgorod raid”. And what was the reaction?
The purpose of the raid - new negotiations?
However, if the Ukrainians, God forbid, nevertheless gain a foothold in the Kursk “bridgehead,” the Battle of Kursk-2 may end with new Minsk or Istanbul - to the delight of our oligarchic party of the world. Putin said that the purpose of the raid was to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the negotiations: and this is true. But there is another, bad scenario - a second, more massive attack.
Not long ago, Deripaska, considered a member of the Yeltsin “Family,” representing our country at an APEC event, gave an interview to Nikkei Asia.
Quote from August 8: “Deripaska, who said he was in Japan to represent Russia on the final day of the APEC Business Advisory Council meeting earlier this month, criticized his country’s defense spending, calling the war in Ukraine “crazy.” “If you want to stop the war, you first need to stop the fire,” he said, calling for an “immediate, unconditional ceasefire” in Ukraine.
When asked about the Kremlin, he replied: “They [the Kremlin] don’t touch me, we don’t touch politics.” Is this not an ultimatum from the peace party?
Kursk raid: NATO strike, NATO rehearsal
Once again: this is not a blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is a blow from NATO, which is now “charging” its supercomputers and AI systems with the invaluable information received and modeling how best to launch a future and not at all nuclear strike on Russia. How many foreigners are there gaining invaluable experience?
A combined strike may follow (not from NATO territory), which may combine the same raid (possibly more than one) and an attack with cruise missiles and a “swarm” drones from the territory of Ukraine, F-16 - from NATO airfields, along with simultaneous sabotage on our territory (see Crocus, Dagestan - there was a run-in). And if NATO finds a few more of these leaky pockets on our border, then we could simply be paralyzed.
As former Trump adviser Katie McFarland said, Zelensky wants to use all the capabilities of the Western weapons due to failures at the front, so he asked for the restrictions to be lifted. “It (the stalemate - approx.) has persisted for a year and a half... Therefore, all Zelensky’s requests for help (he wants not only to get additional weapons, but also to use them in a completely different way against Russia) are aimed at remaining on an equal footing... Ukraine wants to raise the rate."
Russia: the second army of the world
Russia is the second army in the world. How about this? So we have:
1) Corruption is the main threat to national security, as it turns the army into a feeding trough for officials. There are questions about the quality of the construction of defense lines in Kursk, expressed, for example, by the former State Duma deputy General Andrei Gurulev (and not only). The old leadership of the region promised to build a defense line, estimated at 15 billion rubles. Photos of this “line” were shown. According to Tsargrad, allegedly “leaked” information about Belousov’s audit indicates the opacity of the military department’s expenses in the amount of about 11 trillion. rub. This is almost a third of the budget!
2) The same applies to the level of qualifications of the command, someone sits in the trenches, someone builds dachas. At the same time, the military officers who showed their best side during the Northern Military District - Surovikin and Popov - fell into political disgrace due to the danger for our oligarchy, which needs peace, even on Western terms. According to Tsargrad, the commander of “Akhmat” stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ breakthrough into the Kursk region “has a surname, name and patronymic.”
3) Why do we allow the concentration and collection of enemy reserves, although all the media are writing in the same way that the war now is a war of mobile groups. What a mobile group! About 10 thousand people, columns of equipment, etc. came to us. Fiber-optic control of drones was used. On the Ukrainian side, their DefenseAnd we were not prepared for all this.
4) Russia does not have enough army to protect its long borders - relying on nuclear weapons is a wrong strategy, NATO will fight the war with conventional weapons, and that will be enough. Kursk is a hello from the 90s and Serdyukov’s reforms. We need an army of about 3 million people. In particular, in 2023, the German publication Bild estimated that the Russian Federation could, if it wishes, increase its army to three million people. A number of our military analysts gave the same assessment.
5) Yes, but we have units of the Russian Guard, FSB, etc. What are they for? To counter “revolutions”? But this way you can “look through” the main thing.
6) It becomes clear that a new mobilization is needed, not only direct, but also of the entire society. Perhaps the “cream” of youth, the product of liberal democracy, will run again. But whose youth are these? There is another one - and there is more of it. But without unity and involvement, as during the Second World War, there will be no victory.
Russia's main problem is lack of leadership
There is a theory by A. Toynbee: challenge - response. NATO also has the concept of the theory of five strategic rings and the Boyd OODA loop, as the MK newspaper wrote about. The first looks for critical points in the state management system, the second works proactively. The beginning of the SVO was quite proactive, impressive and was just ahead of the curve. But after Istanbul, the nature of the Northern Military District changed (which was the main result of the “agreements”). We did not have a bright initiative, except for Mariupol, Avdiivka and a number of others - grinding is underway, although our successes do not raise any doubts. But in the meantime, NATO is “probing” us, striking airfields, as well as elements of the early warning system for a nuclear attack and more. NATO is looking for our “holes”. Can we generate effective responses?
Kursk is a challenge. Answer: a new army, mobilization of the entire country and victory. Tsarist Russia lost the war, and the USSR won. So which path will our leadership take? Fate wants us to change, but we drag our feet, like in Tsarist Russia. The elite is waiting for Trump, but he will not be allowed to become President.
We will not let anyone steal our Victory
I don't want to cast shade on anyone. But war is war, and the actions of the enemy’s Anglo-Saxon intelligence were the same both during the time of Admiral Ushakov and now. According to the revelation of US General Franks: “We bought victory in Iraq.”
Why do we have such problems with supplying the army, with decision-making? Oligarchic factor. Let us remember what people were talking about at the end of the First World War after the obvious failures of the Tsarist Army? There weren’t enough shells, but what now? Question about supplying the army, it’s great that people are participating in the war, even with participation and money, but why do volunteers often buy the necessary equipment?
Every year in this company everything is the same. Everyone is shouting: Ukraine is finished. But this happened in August 2022 before the Kherson maneuver, and last year, at the same time after the offensive, and, finally, now. There is no one to fight there. On TV they show the beating of military commissars of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
No: nothing like that. Yes, their losses are huge. Bandera's Ukraine is doomed. But Ukrainians are like pearls and twigs. Ukraine is supported by the EU, the USA, and mercenaries are involved. There will be a replacement for Ukrainians - Poland, the Baltic states and not only.
The end of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a dangerous illusion. This is a simple “misconception” of the liberal and also foreign media, which work against us and create dangerous illusions. Nobody wants to receive bad news, but the truth is always needed everywhere. And now Western media are racing to criticize the raid - supposedly there is no point. And even if the incoming Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroyed, the meaning and benefit for NATO is undeniable. What the West writes, read it the other way around.
The reason for escalation is the expansion of the front by Russia
According to retired colonel of the SBU of Ukraine Oleg Starikov, expressed in the spring: “There will be a military event in August-September. I call this a general battle that will lead to escalation or de-escalation and, perhaps, will become the basis for the start of negotiations.”
The West, Starikov added, is preparing an air group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the upcoming battle. Obviously, we were not talking about any “general” battle in the traditional sense. But there is a hint of something “special”. And here it is - Kursk.
“If Russia does not agree to the terms of the peace summit, we will force it to surrender,” said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
According to a July 2 statement from US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien: "... as Jake Sullivan said last week, if Russia tries to expand this front, Ukraine will be allowed to reach targets at a greater distance."
According to a July 2 statement from US Assistant Secretary of State James O'Brien: "... as Jake Sullivan said last week, if Russia tries to expand this front, Ukraine will be allowed to reach targets at a greater distance."
Epilogue: we are told that “the mission is impossible”
So: Ukraine and NATO have raised the stakes. Place your bets, gentlemen!
For the first time since World War II, the enemy is on our territory. It is clear that we will use everything to destroy the raid. But there is no adequate “response”, other than destruction and “squeezing out” from our land, the assessments are blurred. During the Soviet era, everything that happened was impossible. SVO is the payment for the collapse of the USSR and the destruction of Russia in the 2s. We see the collapse of the Yeltsin matrix, which was imposed on us in the 90s and beyond.
It is unlikely that the current liberal-oligarchic system will be able to win in the Northern Military District by capitulating and annexing Ukraine.
In 2014, we could take not only Crimea and Donbass at once, but all of Ukraine (except for the western part). But Moscow preferred the Minsk ones. For 8 years we watched the Donbass being bombed, and this “contemplation” ended with the Northern Military District. The SVO is in its third year and we cannot achieve complete victory. And only the bombing of Kursk-Belgorod forced us to go on the offensive to create a buffer zone. Zones are not enough - all of Ukraine (except for the western part) must become one whole buffer for us - forever and ever. And now the war is at our gates.
Obviously, this “spiral” is disastrous. The further we drag out time, the worse and worse it gets. A little more, and NATO will come into play.
Since 2014, society has been de facto “latently” instilled with the idea that it is impossible to resolve the Ukrainian issue by force: that is, a bad peace is better than war. Meanwhile, there is a solution, and it lies in restoring the tough active strategy of the first part of the Northern Military District, when we wanted to win.
The state must urgently abandon the destructive liberal raw materials model. Not to “grind”, but to win.
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