Russia updates ties with Kurds
An unusual visitor arrived in Moscow last Tuesday - President of Iraqi Kurdistan Masood Barzani. The Kurds designated this event as “the first official visit” of Barzani to Russia. Moscow called it a “working visit”, but nonetheless with official attributes - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday received Barzani in the Kremlin.
Historical the severity of the moment is obvious. According to legend, 60 years ago, Masoud’s father, the legendary Kurdish leader Malla Mustafa Barzani, stood at the Kremlin’s Spassky tower and knocked on a massive gate, shouting: “This is knocking on the Kurdish people.” He fled to Russia with a thousand Kurdish militants after the collapse of the so-called Republic of Mahabad in 1947. Joseph Stalin decided to grant him asylum in Russia, where he lived for 12 years.
Son visited Mustafa’s Moscow residence on Tuesday. Indeed, Russian relations with the "mountain Kurds" in the north of Iraq have returned back in time, and even 60 years ago they were already permeated with the policies of the most intriguing properties. Here, national interests intersect with regional politics, while the geopolitical maneuvers of the great powers lend real drama to what is happening.
The visit of Masud Barzani means that Moscow is playing a game with high stakes. In addition to the huge unresolved Kurdish national issue, at least half a dozen plans overlap - Iraq and the fragmentation of Syria, Turkish "neo-Ottomanism", Iranian explosive growth as a regional power, the "Arab spring", the weakening of the influence of the United States in the region and, of course, the "return "post-Soviet Russia to the Middle East.
Barzani’s arrival in Moscow coincides with a defining moment in the history of Iraq. Kurdish nationalism rises to the heights, drawing inspiration from the Arab spring. The regional autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan, which arose in the early 1990's, when the “no-fly zone” was introduced in Iraq under the leadership of the United States after the Gulf War, is striving for independence.
Waving a red flag
According to Kurdistan, Barzani proposed to discuss "a number of important issues relating to relations between Russia and Kurdistan, as well as political events in Iraq and in the region as a whole." In addition to Barzani, the delegation included his son and chief security adviser Masrour Barzani and senior officials responsible for oil and gas, construction and housing.
Given the current state of US-Russian relations, it may be tempting to see "anti-American" impetus in Barzani’s Moscow visit. But Moscow and Washington are probably on this side of the barricades in this story. No one wants the breakup of Iraq. Both are worried about the increased activity of al-Qaida groups in Iraq.
Again, the known reserves of Iraqi oil are estimated at 143 100 000 000 barrels and at least as many are found in unexplored regions of the country. Iraq may at some point overtake Saudi Arabia, which has stocks of 296 500 000 000 barrels. Suffice to say that the state of stability in Iraq affects the world oil market. In addition, the tsunami of the spread of Shiite influence draws its inspiration from Iraq.
But Russian and American interests and priorities still diverge. Washington is obsessed with the proximity of the Iraqi government and Tehran. Washington cherished Barzani in the era of Saddam Hussein, but at the same time did not accept his current loss of influence in Baghdad, on which the crucial importance of Washington’s ability to influence a number of regional issues, especially in the Persian Gulf region, depends.
The US ambassador to Ankara, Francis Ricardon, recently waving a red flag on Turkey’s flirt with Kurdistan. He said:
“Turkey and Iraq have no choice but to strengthen close ties, if they want to optimize the use of Iraq’s resources and export them through Turkey. If Turkey and Iraq are not able to optimize their economic ties, failure can be even worse. More violent conflict may occur in Iraq and [the chances of] the disintegration of Iraq can [increase]. And that would not be good either for Turkey, or for the United States, or anyone else in this region. "
On one side
Indeed, if Iraq falls apart, the wreckage will scatter far and wide. The United States and Russia have a common interest in preventing such a breakdown. But in the current imperious dynamics of the region, Moscow’s ability to do something there, perhaps, is better than that of Washington.
Russia has established cordial relations with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his government in Baghdad and hopes to see it through (despite fierce US resistance) armory the $ 4 billion deal that the Iraqi leader agreed on during his visit to Moscow in October. Lukoil is also doing a tumultuous business with Baghdad, providing favorable conditions for the development of the West Qurna-2 field in southern Iraq, where two-thirds of Iraqi oil’s known reserves are located.
After meeting with Barzani on Tuesday in Moscow, the Russian energy leviathan Gazprom said: "The parties discussed prospects for deepening bilateral cooperation in the oil and gas sector. In particular, the meeting considered the potential for interaction between Gazprom and Kurdistan's oil and gas companies in the field of oil exploration, development and operation of oil and gas gas fields. "
Barzani said in Moscow on Tuesday: "We are satisfied with the work of Gazprom Neft in the [Kurdistan] region. New agreements have been reached in recent days with its Russian company."
However, the game against Baghdad for Erbil and vice versa is not in Russian interests. Putin recently recently called Maliki for the second time in the last two months and probably brought him up to date with Moscow’s intentions to strengthen ties with Barzani. To drive a wedge between Turkey and Barzani is one of the key Russian goals, for which al-Maliki would be grateful.
Both in Moscow and in Baghdad, they are looking at Turkey’s ambitious plan, which has offered itself as a “energy hub” connecting the Middle East with Europe, especially after recent reports that Turkey plans to build a new Nabucco pipeline from Kurdistan.
However, the point is that Russia is categorically against the collapse of Iraq, since its consequences can be very serious for the security of Transcaucasia. Equally, Russia will deter Barzani from participating in the Turkish frauds in Syria. Barzani told the Russian media that he would focus on possible solutions to the Syrian conflict.
Dangerous waltz
What works for Moscow is a big lack of trust between Barzani and Ankara, which is a legacy of the turbulent history of the region and cannot be easily discarded. On the other hand, only Turkey can offer a vital lifeline to Kurdistan, which is landlocked and whose economic viability as a separate unit, independent of Baghdad, depends solely on access to the world energy market.
In addition, there is also another coincidence of interests between Ankara and Barzani. Ankara needs relatively cheap oil supplies from Kurdistan to meet its growing energy needs. In 2011, Turkey provided 60% of its gas needs by importing from Iran and about 20% from Russia. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration estimates that Turkey imports about half of its oil from Iran.
But recently, after the decision was made to deploy the US missile defense system, Turkey’s relations with Russia and Iran became problematic. The Turkish strategy to protect Barzani and his family, which has extensive business interests, especially in the export of oil from Kurdistan, is based on the assumption that Barzani will gradually work with Ankara on regional security issues.
On the other hand, Barzani’s friendly relations with the Turks were never approved by the Kurdish Peshmerga. In addition, they are unhappy and Syrian Kurds. The recent illness of Jalal Talabani (Iraqi president and leader of the rival Kurdistan Peoples Union) has brought new uncertainty. Tehran and Ankara may end up sponsoring competing Kurdish groups and there is a greater likelihood of intra-Kurdish violence that could erupt in the future.
Barzani is walking on thin ice, and he seems to understand that his Turkish waltz may soon become untenable. It annoys Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus. Meanwhile, being in Moscow, Barzani could become a witness to the fact that Russia moved to the main stage in the intra Syrian political dialogue. The meeting of the Russian-Arab Forum was held in Moscow on Wednesday.
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