Literally the other day, Russian news agencies published information that according to the Customs Union, in addition to Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, by the end of this year, the fourth state of the CIS could be. And the state of this, most likely, will be the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. Sapar Isakov, head of the foreign policy department of the Kyrgyz presidential administration, said that all domestic ratification procedures were held in Bishkek on a series of bilateral relations with Russia and contacts with the Customs Union. The confirmation of the fact that Kyrgyzstan may be admitted to the CU by the end of the year can be considered the words of the Russian ambassador in this Central Asian republic, Andrei Krutko. The ambassador, in particular, said that today official Bishkek is doing everything to prepare the Kyrgyz legislation and the economy to join the Customs Union. Krutko notes that there is a corresponding base and, most importantly, the desire of Bishkek himself for this, and therefore by the end of the year Kyrgyzstan will be finally ready for customs integration.
News that by the end of 2013, the customs troika could become a quartet due to the admission of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union, it suggests that the era of the so-called indiscriminate multi-vector approach by the Kyrgyz authorities is a thing of the past. Indeed, more recently, the authorities of this Central Asian state tried to use several directions in foreign policy at once. And to use it with local flavor, calling any of the partners in contact with Bishkek strategic. They will hold negotiations with Russia - Moscow is becoming a strategic partner and ally, Washington is becoming a strategic partner with the United States, and Beijing is with China. Moreover, each of the “main allies” received promises from the Kyrgyz leaders, the implementation of key trade and military-technical projects, and much more. However, after the new "main ally" of the Kyrgyz authorities loomed on the horizon, they forgot about their previous promises. True, for the Kyrgyz leaders themselves, who tried to sit on several chairs at once, this did not end well. Against the background of squall protests, Askar Akayev fled, then under the same squall he sought shelter outside Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Whether the new authorities of Kyrgyzstan either decided to stop in their geopolitical preferences, or started a new competitive game of the Kyrgyz, replacing one mask with another. However, we will not blame Bishkek, which is called a priori. Now it’s Russia, it seems, not from the hand, but from the hand, for example, to “strategic partners” from North America, who, after statements by the official Bishkek about their desire to be in the Customs Union, began to experience what this oriental friendship is.
In this case, we are talking about the development at the Kumtor gold mine, which is handled by the Canadian company Centerra Gold. Kyrgyz legislators, looking askance at gold production by Canadians, decided that they somehow did not pay taxes to the local treasury and, moreover, were mining in violation of environmental standards. To investigate violations committed by Centerra Gold, a special state commission was even created, which decided that Canadian gold miners caused damage to the Kyrgyz economy by 6,7 billion soms (approximately 141 million dollars). German specialists were involved in assessing the extent of environmental damage, the conclusions of which, in truth, Bishkek did not publish ...
After calculating the amount of damage, the Kyrgyz government decided to present an ultimatum to North American businessmen: either CG repays the designated “debt” or “suitcase-station-Ottawa”.
The official response from the owners of the Canadian company has not come, but so far everything suggests that Canadians are not going to repay any “penalties”, believing that all conclusions of the commission were fabricated. Well, who, gentlemen Canadians, said that it would be easy in Kyrgyzstan. It was easy when official Bishkek allowed himself to wag his tail in different directions, and now the situation has changed somewhat. Now Bishkek decided to get into the Customs Union, and the Customs Union has a short conversation with all Canadians and other North Americans there ... Once through the whole fortress of “indestructible” Kyrgyz friendship they passed, now that’s what you are called, test yourself ...
Naturally, after representatives of firms from foreign countries in Kyrgyzstan began to be under significant pressure, rumors spread that, they say, it’s all the Kremlin’s hands. They say that this is Moscow Atambaeva for the gills takes and makes him fall in love with both himself and the Customs Union. However, many people are talking about the “hand of the Kremlin” and attempts to recreate the Soviet Union, which is called in the image and likeness. Why, there we have ... Even the main admirer of the merits of Russia and the indispensable ideological defender of every Russian citizen, Mrs. Clinton at one time said that the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union is Moscow’s attempts to create a new totalitarian state, against which it (Hillary) will fight and hands and feet. However, Hillary was pushed in (it remains to hope that it is not temporary), the Customs Union is preparing for expansion, and it is naive to consider that it is Moscow that gives Atambayev some ultimatums. Today, not the circumstances to cultivate trade integration on the ultimatum soil. “If you don’t enter, we’ll turn off the gas,” this housewife’s message is far from the realities of a modern partnership.
And the pressure that western companies are talking about in Kyrgyzstan is not a Moscow hand, or even a whisper of the Russian authorities at the ear of the Kyrgyz authorities. This is a common variation of the Central Asian policy: today we want to be friends with the Customs Union, and everyone else, as they say in Kyrgyzstan, is jock ... Tomorrow, maybe we want to be friends with the union, then let's take our joke back ... But let's not talk about sad things. Friendship while Bishkek seems to want ...
And if Kyrgyzstan in the near future may be in the Customs Union, how can this affect the economy of the republic itself and the economies of the three other states? After all, today there are those experts who say that Bishkek is the only one who will turn out to be in the positive; all the rest, they say, will turn out to be in the status of locomotives of a not very advanced economy - the economy of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan.
So will Kyrgyzstan for the Customs Union be what Greece has become for the European Union? The question, to get an answer to which before Bishkek joins the CU, is difficult, but some preliminary assessments can be presented.
So, today, gross domestic product per capita in Kyrgyzstan averages around 1100 dollars per year. This is almost 5 times lower than Belarus, 10 times lower than Kazakhstan and 14-15 times lower than the Russian figures. The difference in economic indicators in terms of per capita GDP is impressive. However, over the past year, Kyrgyzstan has shown a steady growth in exports of products to the CIS countries (primarily Russia and Kazakhstan). This growth was about 20%, reaching a volume of X million Millions of 803,7. The value itself in 803,7 million dollars for assessing exports to several countries of the region at once looks quite modest, but today there are all the prerequisites for the level of trade between Kyrgyzstan and other countries of the Customs Union to grow. The reason is the truly breakthrough energy projects for Kyrgyzstan. The parliament of Kyrgyzstan passed the ratification of agreements on the construction of a cascade of the Upper Naryn hydropower stations and the Kambarata hydropower station 1. The operation of the Kambarata hydropower plant alone will cover the country's electricity needs and begin the full-fledged export of electricity to neighboring countries.
Customs preferences will affect light industry. Today, the same Russia, receiving about 88% of cotton from total Russian imports of raw cotton from Kyrgyzstan, is losing hundreds of millions of rubles to overcoming customs barriers in the form of duties. Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the CU (if there is political will) will get rid of multi-stage intermediary structures that wind up prices for various import and export goods.
Naturally, it will not do without some financial assistance in relation to Kyrgyzstan. How can it be without this? .. The main thing is that this help should not turn into help, let's say, of the Greek model, when the Kyrgyz authorities decide that instead of productive labor from their own citizens, using declarative statements about “fraternity forever”, lure others TS members sparing loans, which then will still be written off ...
In general, positive from the accession of Kyrgyzstan to the Customs Union, of course, is - both for Kyrgyzstan itself and for its three current members. However, in order for this positive not only to be on paper, painstaking joint work is necessary.
By the way, here we are discussing with you the question of how economically justified for the Russian Federation, Belarus and Kazakhstan to join the Customs Union of Kyrgyzstan. But the most interesting thing is that a certain percentage of citizens in Kyrgyzstan are confident in the desire of the mentioned troika headed by Russia to squeeze all the juices from the Kyrgyz economy and leave it to the mercy of fate. A number of Kyrgyz economic experts in Bishkek said that after Kyrgyzstan joined the CU, Russia would force trade flows with China to be blocked through new exorbitant duties. At the same time, Russia, in the opinion of the same experts, will “drive” Chinese goods to Kyrgyzstan through its Far East at prices that are favorable to them. This, they say, will have a negative impact on the well-being of Kyrgyz citizens ...
Excuse me, on what? .. Let us return for a second to the level of average per capita GDP in Kyrgyzstan: it is about 1100 dollars. If this is welfare, and if something else can have a negative effect on it, then, sorry ...
In response, Russian economic experts say that Kyrgyzstan is still holding on to the fact that every year migrant workers transfer to their country from Russia for 1,1 billion dollars - an amount that is almost 20% of the Kyrgyz state budget ... And Chinese goods here, like how, not even with ...
In general, as you can see, there are enough mutual claims. However, if these claims are not overstepped today, it is hardly possible to talk about a productive rapprochement tomorrow. After all, trade integration can be a step towards something bigger ... Yes, and it’s no secret that the Customs Union itself is a step towards something bigger. Whether we build together this “something more” is a question for us too.