Your own bar with blackjack and... "Euroraptor"
An insatiable desire to “have your own bar with blackjack and fun things” and thus be less dependent on the USA, aviation whose products have recently been at the level of platinum, and the value is no more than tin.
And here comes the fanfare – the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a trilateral project between Britain, Italy and Japan to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter – effectively a redefinition of the future of air power. the war. And judging by the new concept model unveiled in Hall 5 of this year's Farnborough Airshow, that future has at least large delta wings. As for the size of the prospects, it's worth keeping quiet for now.
This new, wider delta configuration should allow the aircraft to fly further and faster while carrying more weapons and fuel. These advantages, however, come at the expense of maneuverability, which has declined compared to both the original "lambda wing" concept that was unveiled in 2018 and the official Japanese concept art for its FX fighter program that was included in GCAP .
Own way. The Americans relied on stealth (and are gradually flying with it), the Russians - on maneuverability and speed (although we must pay tribute - in comparison with American aircraft, we all have long-range bombers), the Euro-Asians decided that it was necessary to fly far and quickly, and maneuverability and stealth can be sacrificed.
BAE program manager Hermann Clazan made a profound statement when he said, "...We have to go far, we have to go a long way, we have to carry a lot of stuff, and we have to do it in a stealthy configuration." However, uh... They swung their hearts out.
British aviation journalist Gareth Jennings said the larger model's wingspan was comparable to the retired American F-111 Aardvark supersonic long-range bomber. This is a serious statement, the F-111 was a full-fledged bomber with a very fun life. And his dimensions were very soulful.
But the variable-sweep wing F-111 was designed to fly at extremely low altitudes to penetrate defenses; GCAP will instead use stealth and long-range missiles. As such, it is more similar to the FB-22, a proposed short-range fighter-bomber variant based on the F-22A Raptor stealth fighter, which also had a very wide delta wing.
Lockheed-Martin FB-22 concept
To be clear, the latest GCAP concept is not complete. It's not certain that the result will be a decent bomber, but the design does indicate that GCAP's designers are leaning toward trading some maneuverability (used in dogfights with enemy fighters within visual range) for greater range and payload. This is likely due to the fact that they believe that these qualities will be of greater importance - not only for assault and anti-ship missions, but also possibly for air combat.
All GCAP partners operate the stealthy carrier-based F-35B and (with the exception of the UK) land-based F-35A aircraft. However, they want to build their own next-generation stealth aircraft that can fly further and carry more internal weapons than the F-35 - one that they can freely modify and/or export without restrictions from the US. This last factor may facilitate missile integration weapons domestically produced by these countries, such as MBDA Meteor, SPEAR 3, as well as Japanese ASM-3 anti-ship missiles and JNAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles.
More generally, the aircraft would combine the defining feature of the fifth generation fighter (low radar signature) with a set of features that were expected to define the still conceptual sixth generation:
- sophisticated, secure data links that allow sensors and weapons to be networked with friendly forces and drones;
- helmets that not only display data for pilots, but also monitor their physical and mental states to provide intervention in the event of overload or loss of consciousness;
- integrated artificial intelligence that will assist the pilot in many tasks, including issuing instructions to multiple combat drones in a “trusty wingman” style that can carry out risky missions;
- Advanced adaptive cycle turbofan engines that can be rebuilt during flight to optimize performance or fuel efficiency;
- Improved engine cooling and gearless electric generators producing ten times more electricity to power sensors and perhaps eventually directed energy weapons.
While diverging national requirements and commercial priorities have undermined many past multinational fighter jet programs, the partners have reportedly agreed on a single design document.
Ultimately, the UK and Italy want the GCAP to eventually replace their Typhoon "4+" generation fighters, while Japan is more desperately in need of a new aircraft to replace its F-2s, which are exhibiting serious problems with wing cracking. which makes life extension undesirable.
And the triumvirate could be expanded: Saudi Arabia, which was denied the sale of the F-35, has also expressed interest in joining GCAP, but has not yet been invited due to Japanese objections (they will eventually buy the Su-57). Sweden was also in talks to join GCAP, but declined, saying it would reconsider its decision in 2031.
The GCAP program's intention remains to begin production of fighter jets by 2035. It is expected that the use of new digital tools will enable this rapid pace of development.
Meanwhile, production of a flying demonstrator began in 2023, with a flight scheduled for 2027. It will include an internal payload bay, a Martin-Baker ejection seat, and the EJ200 turbofan engines used on the Typhoon fighter rather than the next-generation GCAP engines, although the EJ200s will reportedly have stealthy S-shaped air intakes.
In addition, a Boeing 757-200 airliner called Excalibur is being converted into an avionics testbed for GCAP systems. It is due to enter service in 2026 and will serve as a test site for the MFRS radar, infrared sensor, and GCAP communications and self-defense systems.
Show your faces
The Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) is a three-pronged project led by Britain's BAE Systems, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Italy's Leonardo to develop a sixth-generation manned stealth fighter.
The joint project is overseen by an organization called the GCAP Intergovernmental Organization (GIGO). The company is headquartered in the UK and is currently headed by a Japanese official.
A successful GCAP program will result in an aircraft called Tempest in UK service, but may have different designations in Italy and Japan (possibly F-3 for the latter).
GCAP/Tempest is one component of a wider British program called the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which also includes the development of related combat drones and aviation ammunition.
Confusingly, France and Germany are leading a separate but identically named FCAS program with similar ambitions to the UK FCAS, which Spain and Belgium have joined. The Franco-German program includes an aircraft called the Next Generation Fighter (NGF) and unmanned aerial vehicles called Remote Carriers.
In general, it seems like everyone is in one apartment under the sign of NATO, but in reality everyone really has their own bar...
The British defense press has been nervous about the future of GCAP lately, with new Defense Secretary Lucas Pollard refusing to commit to the program until the department has completed its Strategic Defense Review, due to be published in the first half of 2025.
However, some UK analysts say the alleged threat of repeal was exaggerated by (or by) the press, driven by anonymous insiders who may either be antipathetic to the new government or intend to change the distribution of interdepartmental funding.
For now, GCAP officials insist they have secured all the funding they need (around £2 billion or $2,5 billion) until 2025, with a further £9,5 billion to be released after that date. However, the final cost is likely to rise sharply based on past stealth fighter programs. A more realistic threat than outright repeal may be a funding shortfall, as Labour's commitment to increase defense spending from 2,2% to 2,5% depends on the financial conditions facing the UK economy.
Another obstacle is the US Air Force's policy regarding its supposedly breakthrough sixth-generation fighter NGAD, caused by very high unit costs ($250-300 million per aircraft) and the accompanying budget crisis caused by the modernization of strategic nuclear weapons. Air Force leaders now say they can achieve what they want by using drones designed to accompany the NGAD in combat, without the NGAD itself.
Lockheed Martin NGAD Concept
If the US (with its huge defense budget) believes that the R&D and production of a sixth-generation manned fighter is too expensive and not as necessary, it could call into question sixth-generation programs such as GCAP in other countries. Perhaps the inevitable transition to cheaper and more expendable unmanned strike fighters will occur sooner than expected, without the need to develop sixth-generation manned aircraft as a bridge.
Some analysts argue that this is not the case - GCAP is expected to cost significantly less than NGAD, and the development team is focused on having a "minimum viable product" ready by the mid-2030s, with future upgrades possible. Lower costs may also make it easier to obtain export sales.
This is quite logical in our times. Minimum output capabilities with upgrades and enhancements at a separate cost - why not?
Since USAF officials have said they may revise the NGAD design to be cheaper, it is possible that the NGAD could eventually reduce the cost to be more comparable to the GCAP. Interestingly, however, GCAP was originally billed as using advanced adaptive cycle engines, a component that is responsible for NGAD's high projected costs.
However, not everyone is optimistic about GCAP's future.
Analyst Justin Bronk argues that GCAP will require such a huge chunk of the UK's defense budget that the RAF will not be able to rebuild or upgrade its current combat aircraft in the next decade, and that current cost estimates are actually wildly optimistic. Given that the previous Eurofighter Typhoon ended up being 50% over budget (adjusted for inflation, £23 billion to £34,5 billion for the UK alone), the program could realistically prove to be financially unsustainable.
It is noteworthy that both optimistic forecasts for R&D time and cost-effectiveness achieved through the use of digital tools turned out to be lower than forecasts (cost reduction of “only” 20%) in bringing the Boeing T-7 Red Hawk trainer aircraft to state of production readiness.
Plus general instability in the world, affecting both currencies and components for production - all this can add its ten bob to the GCAP program scales.
Why range, speed and payload trump maneuverability
GCAP (and the sixth generation fighter concept in general) is influenced by the idea that stealth, more powerful radars and better missiles are inexorably turning air warfare into something more akin to a standoff between teams of snipers.
Thus, the ability to avoid detection, i.e., stealth, the ability to quietly detect the enemy first (using powerful AESA radars with a low probability of interception) and stealthily maneuver into position for the perfect shot can determine the winner to a greater extent than a "knife fight" at close range. distance.
Obviously, having a decent amount of ammo (missiles in the internal bays) and a bunch of expendable wingman drones is also a big advantage.
It is noteworthy that during the more than two-year air war over Ukraine, Russian fighters with more powerful radars and R-37M and R-77M missiles almost constantly use long-range missiles, operating from long distances, abandoning close combat within visual range due to high mutual risks using modern short-range missiles.
Case in point. Why arrange a “dog dump” if you can reach the enemy from a distance of 200 km, when the enemy does not even see the plane that is already attacking him.
Rising tensions between Western countries and China are also affecting GCAP. Japan is a Pacific country and, as expected, seeks to strengthen its role in the region. And to do this, aircraft must fly long distances, especially in order to be based out of the range of long-range Chinese missiles to attack ground targets. In addition, a larger amount of internal fuel allows fighters to accompany stealth bombers deep into enemy air defense zones, where tankers simply cannot safely approach.
Sustained high speeds also provide a quick transition to the battlefield and provide greater ability to evade long-range enemy missiles by simply running away from the area. Hit and run at its best.
Conveniently, speed, range, sensors, stealth and a large payload are also key attributes of a strike aircraft designed to evade enemy air defenses, potentially harass mobile targets such as ballistic missile launchers or warships, and inflict maximum damage in a single departure.
While the advantage in maneuverability is still useful, it is believed to affect the combat power and survivability of the aircraft, but not as significantly as the qualities listed. This explains why the GCAP's design is less similar to the F-22 Raptor than to the canceled FB-22 bomber.
The FB-22, offered by Lockheed-Martin in various configurations, was an F-22A with wider delta wings, three times the surface area, larger internal weapons bays capable of holding up to 6 kg of payload, and triple the fuel capacity. the combat radius would be approximately 800 km.
By 2003, Secretary of the Air Force James Roche stated that the FB-22 was the "clear choice" to replace the F-15E and proposed buying 150 FB-22s in addition to the planned the fleet from 500 "Raptors" (which will presumably have 80% unification in parts). R&D for the FB-22 is estimated to have cost about $6 billion, far less than what would be needed for a new, clean-sheet bomber.
As a result, Lockheed-Martin submitted six concepts for the FB-22 project for consideration. However, the Raptor bomber did not fit with the defense concept of the 2000s, aimed primarily at fighting terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan, for which stealth fighters were of no use.
The FB-22 was finally canceled in 2006, and F-22 production was reduced from 500 aircraft to 187 aircraft. Instead of a supersonic bomber, the Air Force eventually turned to developing a larger subsonic stealth strategic bomber that could be based at an even safer distance in Hawaii or even the United States—the B-21 Raider, which is currently undergoing flight testing.
And as uncertainty grows over whether NGAD will enter service, the ambitions of the France-Germany-Belgium-Spain and UK-Japan-Italy blocs to create their own aircraft of tomorrow are entirely understandable. If yesterday's hegemon in the arms market begins to give up, we need to strain ourselves.
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