Oracle at the request of readers. What awaits us in August
It’s somehow strange to receive messages asking me to tell you about the near future. Not globally, but specifically regarding the situation in Ukraine. I am not sure that even among the senior officers directly involved in these events, there are few people who would predict how events would develop, not even globally, but in the areas for which they are responsible.
It is clear that questions arise because the coming month for Russia has long become somehow fatal in terms of negativity. This is probably because the holidays are ending. Rested people, missing active activity, rush to fight this very boredom.
To be honest, I also have some prejudices from my past life. For example, before making any important actions or decisions, I don’t shave in the morning. Meeting a pregnant woman is also undesirable for me. I think there are people among the readers who understand what I mean. This is roughly the same way people react to August. Funny for a modern person? Maybe. But it is what it is.
And the media today are quite active in this direction. How many materials about the new offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. About the upcoming peace talks, about how the future US president, and I am not at all sure that it will be Trump (this is for future critics), will force us and the Ukrainians to stop the war and so on, so on, so on.
At first I didn’t want to write. Well, I don’t see anything that can happen in the world in August. I see the desire for this to happen, but there are no prerequisites for this. And there is no way to create them. But then I decided to speak out anyway. Explain your position to those who have not forgotten how to think for themselves.
SVO
There can be no talk of any strategic offensive in the next month. Neither on our side nor on the enemy's side. Where is the necessary superiority of forces and resources for an offensive? On what section of the front? Russian Army will continue to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of their positions, take cities and villages, clear the liberated territory... In short, what is happening now will continue.
Ukraine received the first American planes, which it hides in Poland... And what, someone can say that these planes will change the situation on the LBS? I think that very few people will see these planes on LBS. A huge number of Ukrainian pilots trained to work on the “Americans” (as many as 6 (six) people) will be in Poland and sitting. Russian air defense was created to counter these aircraft. So…
I have written many times about the FPV problem.drones. And what? Has this problem been resolved? No! Ease of production and low cost with great efficiency made this possible weapon a threat to ground troops on both sides. Many have already noticed how easily threats from the enemy are stopped if the commander has the required number of these drones at his disposal.
ATACMS missiles, with the help of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to capture something there. There is even talk of seizing Crimea. Does anyone believe this? Or does anyone believe in Kyiv’s statements about its own production of analogues of such missiles? Alas, as our tactics teacher once said: a position is considered captured only when (sorry, but you can’t erase the words from the song) your fighter’s scrotum is hovering over the enemy’s trench.
The conclusion is simple. The Russian Army will continue to put pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the defensive positions, move to more advantageous positions, threaten with boilers... Which, in fact, suits us. The tasks that were set before the start of the summer campaign are being fulfilled.
Peace negotiations
Again, all talk about readiness for negotiations is an empty phrase. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will negotiate. President Putin and Zelensky have repeatedly voiced their positions on this issue. No one intends to retreat yet. True, it is worth noting that Kyiv has already given signals several times about its desire for such negotiations. But on Ukraine's terms.
Some analysts are talking about possible negotiations at the level of contact groups. I don't share their optimism. What kind of joint work can we talk about if the management categorically refuses any compromises? I think the experience of the Istanbul negotiations was enough to understand the futility of any decisions of such groups.
Today, only a very ignorant person does not understand that Kyiv has long lost its independence, and there is no point in reaching agreement even at the presidential level. There are not many countries that can, to one degree or another, become mediators in such negotiations. USA, but due to circumstances this state is not involved in foreign policy today. China, but here, despite Beijing’s statements, the position is more wait-and-see than proactive. India: they are quite satisfied with the economic situation in which the country, without doing practically anything, makes huge money from the resale of Russian oil.
Well, the last “against”.
This is talk about a temporary truce in those positions that currently exist. For what? To accumulate forces, i.e. to increase losses of manpower in the future? We have already played this game and know the result. And Zelensky is not doing well enough to be confident in his own safety if such a decision is made. Ardent supporters of the Maidan can also “tear off their heads.”
Just thoughts without conclusions
As most analysts noted quite a long time ago, the main event of August and September will be the elections in the United States. No matter how hard Kyiv tries to regain interest in the events in eastern Ukraine, the world is already tired of its constant talk about Russia’s guilt in all the failures of the Kyiv regime.
The economic situation in Europe is terrible. And winter is just around the corner. This means that Europe will focus on its own survival. Under these conditions, Ukraine is becoming quite toxic for European governments. Europe has not seen as many failures as have happened in the politics of European countries over these six months.
So, sleep peacefully until October-November.
Information