How interesting it is to watch how a pack lives after the leader leaves... A little about the situation in Europe
Sometimes, when international politics and war with all the problems and intrigues begin to tear the brain apart, for my own salvation, relaxation and calming down I watch films about nature. Yesterday I enjoyed the story about the life of a pride of lions in the savannah.
The spectacle is quite beautiful, sometimes kind, sometimes cruel. Ordinary life, not very different from human life. Only more honest, probably. It's easier for Leos. They don't talk much, they do. The young lion wanted to overthrow the leader and, without talking much, attacked alone or with his comrades.
It worked out well, it didn’t work out - he crawled away to lick his wounds. And this is normal democracy. Most people, lionesses and cubs, don't give a damn. They live an ordinary life. All decisions are made jointly. Everything is like ours. A summit is being held to exchange views. Everyone comes with their own opinion, but disagrees with the leader’s opinion.
True, if another pride tries to occupy their territory, everyone has to fight. But this is quite a rare occurrence. Once or twice a year... But, unlike people, the leader is the first to go into battle. Sometimes the war ends there. Sometimes others have to fight too.
Why am I saying this? I looked at the screen and suddenly realized that the global West is now experiencing approximately the same crisis as the pride of lions is experiencing, when the old leader loses his strength and power. In the West, as in the Pride, there is now exactly the same discord.
The usual way of life is collapsing. We need a new leader. But he’s not there! There are many lions, young, strong, ambitious. Even those who have long imitated their superiority over others, but... When it comes to taking responsibility for the pride, they prefer second roles. Thus, there is confusion and vacillation in society. Some go to the forest, some for firewood.
We will fight, but without a fight
What is happening in the United States today is of little interest to me. It has long been clear that old Biden simply will not physically be able to go through the election campaign and will be replaced. True, in my opinion, this happened too early. It was necessary to wait a couple of weeks. But the assassination attempt on Trump confused the Democrats' cards.
I'm interested in Europe. And what is happening on our borders, the union state, and in European capitals. And now, to put it bluntly, there is panic. The opinion of the “old leader,” which dominated for quite a long time, is in little agreement with the opinion of the possible new leader. I am interested in Poland, which until recently claimed to be the main ally of the United States in Europe.
How, for example, can one combine numerous statements by Polish President Andrzej Duda about an imminent war with Russia and the decision of the Polish government to refuse to build defensive fortifications on the Russian-Polish border in the Kaliningrad region?
How to combine the statements of Polish politicians at various levels about the military threat and the statements of their own military, who do not believe in the very possibility of such an attack from Russia?
We have adopted a slightly distorted understanding of the term “Russian-Polish border”. We have become so accustomed to the fact that Belarus is a fraternal people, a fraternal state, that we perceive the Polish-Belarusian border as ours. This is correct, from my point of view, but legally, having loudly announced the construction of some new line of defense on the border with Russia, Warsaw was only talking about a direct border.
That is, about those 204 km in the Kaliningrad region where we actually border. It was there that the Poles were supposed to place numerous border monitoring systems, build some structures, firing positions, plant forests, etc. A sort of “Tusk line” (Polish Prime Minister) similar to those systems that existed in the pre-war period in Finland and France.
Why this “line” was needed in Warsaw was clear from the very beginning. The Poles are quite cunning and did not intend to build anything on their own. They simply used, sometimes provoking the leadership of the alliance, statements by European politicians and NATO leaders about the need to strengthen the borders of the bloc. The idea itself is interesting. Not only should the NATO organization finance this construction, but you can also put something into your own pocket.
If we add to this the construction and further operation of American bases in Poland, military infrastructure and other things, a quite decent foundation is created for the development of the country and stopping the departure of young people to “old Europe”. It has long been clear that the huge number of “brother Ukrainians” who have already taken root in Poland and clearly have no intention of leaving back are worrying the authorities.
It is strange for me to observe the surprise of some respected experts, which they expressed at the recent statement by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Tomasz Siemoniak, that powerful fortifications will not be built on the Russian-Polish border. The Polish-Belarusian border is enough. It's even a little offensive somehow. “There’s enough barbed wire there.”
It may be difficult to combine talk at NATO summits about a lack of funds and the alliance's plans for expansion. The alliance has no money, there is no construction of NATO fortifications in Poland. Moreover, where the Poles themselves need some kind of fortifications, money is found. Look how actively they are developing the “Safe Underwood” program. Suffice it to mention the increase in the military contingent in less than a year by 11 thousand people: from 6 to 17 thousand!
Warsaw does not intend to fight. They understand perfectly well that Poland is of no interest to Russia. Capturing its territory will in no way strengthen our defense capabilities. On the contrary, hypothetically, in the event of a conflict with the West, the same thing could happen that happened in 1941 on our western borders.
Here it is necessary to clarify the statement of Polish President Andrzej Duda that Russia’s victory in the conflict in Ukraine could lead to war with NATO. The Law and Justice party, which Duda represents, miserably lost the elections to Tusk’s party. That is, the traditionalist Catholics were defeated by the liberals.
So inside Poland there is now a hidden struggle between these currents. I’m not even afraid to say, such a “cold civil war”... This is already noticeable even without a scrupulous examination of the internal life of Poland. And the contrast between the statements of the president and the government is one of the manifestations of the influence of this struggle on the country’s foreign policy.
For a long time, conservatives and liberals got along quite well in the ruling elite of Poland. About the same as Democrats and Republicans in the USA. They were on the surface of life, while periodically changing their role in governing the country. The ruling party is the opposition. It seems to me that today Tusk is much more powerful than Duda. Simply because the bureaucracy is “under the prime minister.” Duda is just a “mannequin in a window”...
It may sound strange to some, but holding a weapon in your hands adds intelligence
Let me return to my statement about Polish armies, whose representatives are confident that Russia will not attack. The military has always been distinguished not only by courage, but also by education. Military academies have always been considered among the best educational institutions in the country. Poland is no exception.
Polish intelligence works in exactly the same way as the intelligence services of other countries. Because for the Poles it’s completely newsthat the Kaliningrad garrison and the naval base in the region are simply physically unable to carry out an effective offensive with the available forces. Basic arithmetic! There are enough of them to defend the enclave, but in the event of an attack there is not the necessary superiority of forces.
The only thing against this logic is the location of the enclave, which is favorable for an offensive. Geography is also a science. But the fact is that arithmetic has nothing to do with geography in Kaliningrad. Well there aren't thousands tanks, thousands of artillery systems, a huge garrison and more. The fairy tale for preschoolers about the possibility of secretly deploying such forces in an area does not work in modern conditions.
Moreover, judging by indirect signs, Polish and Russian border guards get along quite well and maintain constant contact with each other. At the border, everyone understands that it is they who will take the blow if something happens and will most likely die. The first casualties of the war. But the instinct of self-preservation has not been canceled.
The same cannot be said about our other neighbors, however. I mean the Balts. Three great powers, the total population of which is inferior in size to St. Petersburg alone. Countries where the majority of the population is infected with the psychosis of the war with Russia.
I understand that now someone will say that I am looking at the situation too radically. Perhaps, if we consider direct hostilities between our countries to be war. But there, and also the “Young Donatists” from Finland, consider actions completely unrelated to the army to be an attack. We are talking about the flow of refugees from the Asian region who are heading to EU countries.
In my opinion, they think it is quite reasonable. Young Asians, in a confrontation with the aging population of the Baltic states, are winning on all counts. So, given the small population of these countries, the Baltic states will very quickly become an Islamic republic. And not in name, but in essence.
Fun days and even months await us
In general, we should expect many interesting events over the next couple of months. There is no leader in a pride. There is anarchy in the pride. Everyone is against everyone. The next event is on Friday. Let's see how Paris will open the Olympics. We couldn’t wait to see how Macron took a swim in the Seine. Now the opening...
Ukraine. Everything is more or less clear here. There will be no repeat peace summit with Russia's participation before the US elections. All Kyiv's efforts in this direction look ridiculous. Nobody is interested in Ukraine today. Your shirt is closer to your body. The leaders of European countries already understand that they have played too much and may soon have to answer uncomfortable questions from their voters.
Events on LBS. We should expect some changes there too. Every day of war gives birth to pacifists. Including in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the political elite of Ukraine. They are already openly talking about the need to remove Zelensky from power. About the territories that must be given up in exchange for maintaining statehood. Ukraine is maturing...
What should we think about? First of all, about the safety of our rear. I have written several times about the measures that simply need to be implemented in the coming days. I won't repeat myself. The life of Russians is the most important task for the state.
Further. Despite the fact that the internal political situation in European countries and Ukraine is tense, we should expect the activation of dormant DRGs and agents. Terrorist attacks are possible on the border and inside the country.
The main thing is not to relax...
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