Military Review

"Russia has an absolutely disgusting economic structure"

38
The press published three scenarios for the development of the Russian economy prepared by the IMF experts. According to the first scenario, the price of oil will fall to 80 dollars per barrel, which will lead to a fall in GDP. The second scenario assumes the preservation of the current economic situation, which will provide Russia with a relatively low economic growth compared with the third possible scenario, in which growth is noticeably higher, but this will require investments in industry.

We turned to Mikhail Leontiev with a request to comment on this information.

The current conjuncture cannot be preserved: it is artificially maintained

I want to personally thank the IMF for the scenario, according to which Russia will invest in production and growth will begin. Even in the government program, which our prime minister opposed to the Davos scenarios, there were no ideas to invest in production.

We had fairly high rates of investment in fixed assets, but these investments are mostly inertial in nature, that is, they do not change the structure of the economy, and therefore our dependence on energy exports has only increased. Significant economic restructuring did not occur at all, and in some cases, domestic production was replaced by imports.

In order to reverse the deindustrialization, simply investing in production will fail. For this, we need models that are not covered by the methodology, ideology and practice of the IMF, that is, illiberal models of accelerated economic development are needed. This does not mean that they are anti-market.

It’s amazing why the IMF believes that the most likely model is to preserve the current market situation, in which Russia will ensure small growth and stability. No real processes in the economy give chances for such a development of events, that is, for the preservation of the current conjuncture. The current situation cannot be preserved: it is artificially maintained - due to the global deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, due to further disruption of macroeconomic equilibrium. At that moment, when the client can not keep balance, and it is all broken and broken, he just falls from the perch.

Russia has no existential obstacles to economic growth and development

In fact, there are two real models. The first model is an economic collapse, after which anything can come, including a very heavy, very expensive, very tough economic revival of Russia, or it may not. The second model is when Russia begins to purposefully engage in structural policy, begins to engage in re-industrialization and ensures its economic growth, economic success and economic attractiveness, including precisely because it happens against the background of a worsening conjuncture.

Russia has no existential obstacles to economic growth and development. We have no overconsumption, we have no macroeconomic imbalances, that is, inhuman debts; we have an absolutely disgusting structure of the economy in the presence of prerequisites to change this structure, but in the absence of the will and desire to do so on the part of the economic model that prevails here. The IMF advises us to invest in production. They advise everyone to invest in production, but behind this there is no state investment program, an active industrial policy. Behind this is the idea of ​​improving conjuncture and investment attractiveness.

What is the investment attractiveness when investments under the current development model are in principle unattractive? Investments must have a return, but where will it come from within this model?

This model was built on artificially stimulating demand by issuing and, thus, pumping the main results of activity from those who create a product to those who print money. The main beneficiary is the one who prints money. All the others also exclude something from it. For example, Russia has received a lot from this: at the expense of expensive energy, it has increased the budget, improved welfare, repaired something, patched and darned.
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38 comments
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  1. Kaa
    Kaa 26 February 2013 07: 07
    +5
    Everything new is well forgotten old. Paradoxically, all over the world, the development of military-industrial production is the engine of progress, all innovative technologies are secondary - the same Internet through which we communicate, all electronics, new materials, basic research. Therefore, the most promising investment is not a mythical growth, but an increase in the State Defense Order. In the medium term, this will make it possible to saturate the domestic market not with South Asian goods, but with domestic ones; in the short term, it will provide geopolitical stability and competitive products of the military-industrial complex to the foreign market, but for rubles, not dollars. Countries will have to earn these rubles by supplying their goods, which in the short term will saturate the market with cheaper goods than when calculating through the dollar, enough to support the Fed!
    1. Dr.oPaSaYn
      Dr.oPaSaYn 26 February 2013 08: 58
      +3
      The engine of progress is respected)) Kaa .... these are people who work in enterprises and it’s not really important where they work, this is clearly seen in the example computers, they were only in narrow specialized circles, and those who developed them in the 60s said that the world needs maybe 1000 computers lol and now they are 700 million fellow pcs A country whose advantage in space is an advantage in intellectual resources floats !!! frankly in g * out) But the whole thing is at the heart of the country in the family and in families they don’t talk about space exploration and don’t meditate on the high, they say in families that the director is kh ** th .... there is no money ... about the same housing and communal services and about that in Europe well ... the education system is terrible at the UNIVERSITIES there is no normal equipment, but if there is then they are not able to work on it !!! And all just techies and engineers to grow expensive for the state is much easier to grow office plankton meat. Normal smart people are unnecessary to anyone) all by themselves. And now, they thought better of themselves, aaa, there’s no need to produce production for a new generation of engineers, it will take 10-12 years.

      Z, I didn’t want to offend anyone
      1. Kaa
        Kaa 26 February 2013 10: 05
        +1
        Quote: Dr.oPaSaYn
        and those who developed them in the 60s said that the world in need may be a little 1000 computers

        Those at whom you are laughing, quite rightly spoke about computers, not about PCs. Now computers are called proudly - "supercomputers" - their dear ones, all over the world know what they can, so do not confuse the two concepts. a little outdated data - "There have been major changes in the list since the June version was published. The former number 1, the American supercomputer IBM Sequoia, installed at the Lawrence Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy (LLNL), has moved to second place: 16,3 petaflops (floating point quadrillion operations per second) is no longer enough for leadership. Topping the rankings is the Titan system, mounted at the DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, a supercomputer powered by 16-core AMD Opteron 6274 server processors and nVidia accelerators Tesla K20 series, has a performance of 17,6 petaflops.
        The K Computer complex, created by Fujitsu Corporation and the Japanese Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), with a productivity of 10,5 petaflops, closes the top three. The most powerful Russian supercomputer Lomonosov occupies the 26th line: its speed is 901,9 teraflops (trillion floating point operations per second). Six months ago, this system was the 22nd. The lowest performance threshold is now 76,5 teraflops, compared to 60,8 six months earlier. http://hard.compulenta.ru/720358/-December 2012.
        And there are people, only without state injections for some reason they try to move to Silicon Valley, and not to Oskolkovo ....
      2. albanec
        albanec 26 February 2013 14: 36
        0
        Yeah, sucks in Kazakhstan sad
        1. aksakal
          aksakal 26 February 2013 20: 53
          +2
          Albanian, I somehow do not complain about Kazakhstan-)))). Yes, what the fellow countryman described with a complex nickname has a place to be, but not much shit than you. But I agree more with Kaa - alas, the military industry is the engine of progress, I also repeatedly posted on this topic.
          I will give one more example - the founder of the Japanese "Sony" recalled how a super-fashionable gadget appeared in the 70s (in the USSR in the 80s) - a cassette player, remember that? So, the Japanese special services (close to the military sphere) needed a compact sound recording device, they turned to Sony, paid for R&D and then a batch of finished products. The idea to popularize the player, a product already finished and paid for by someone, came later, which Sonya did. The founder himself recalled - if some enthusiast came to him with this idea, like let's make a compact music player and popularize it, with no ready-made drawings (R&D still needs to be carried out at the expense of Sonya), no guaranteed sales in the form of already languishing in anticipation a large buyer and other things - this enthusiast would be sent far and for a long time. Think about why military development is the engine of progress. And the fact that people are the engine of progress is understandable, people also work in the military-industrial complex. This is not about people, but about the institutions of the state and their influence.
  2. Tartary
    Tartary 26 February 2013 07: 15
    +5
    Russia gained a lot from this: due to expensive energy resources, it increased its budget, improved its welfare, repaired, patched and darned something.
    Including at the expense of their own people, which pays tens of times more for energy than they really cost in the costs of production, generation and transportation, and even for export. It's funny, but in China our electricity is much cheaper than in Russia they pay for it.
    At the same time, teams of energy managers fly to meetings once a month in Thailand, Pattaya, Cyprus, etc. charter flights with families ...
    Miracles...
    Therefore, they’re not surprised at the bills for housing and communal services - the fate of the people to pay for their existence in money, to pay for their health, to pay for the future of their children, to pay with their lives when defending their homeland.
    Where is the wrong in the above?
    Yes, everything is right - you want to live, pay.
    But what about justice in Russian?
    1. Kaa
      Kaa 26 February 2013 07: 56
      +2
      Quote: Tartary
      Therefore, nehren will be surprised at the bills for housing and communal services

      For miracles - you did not have time to criticize, but the GDP has already responded:
      "Today, on February 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his indignation at the unregulated increase in tariffs for housing and communal services during a meeting on tariff setting and improving the quality of services in the housing and communal services sector." In St. Petersburg, in some areas [rent] increased by 40% the press service reports the words of the president. - Go and explain to people why they had to pay that kind of money in January or December, in November, and in January, February - such a leap. And this is in St. Petersburg, in some areas. And in Murmansk, you say, in some municipalities it is more than 200 percent. Have you lost your mind or what? "" Everything that is being done should not contradict common sense, "the president continued. - Maybe this makes a certain sense - to pay for heat exactly when it enters the house. But it still needs to be done somehow carefully, to build a payment system that would not hit people like a butt in the head. But I'm sure that the overwhelming majority of people do not even know anything about this, they just received a payment 40 percent more. And in the Murmansk region or the Altai Republic - even more several times. Well, how can they live? .. It is possible, after all, to build technologically so that people will pay some stable amount during the year, and when the heating season comes, it can increase, but increase insignificantly. And people must understand what is at stake and be ready for it. "According to the president, in those regions where utility rates" jumped - either due to a negligent or formal attitude to this issue, everything must be done to in order to correct the situation and not force people to pay such completely unreasonable amounts. The economic approach cannot be considered separately from social issues. "
      : http://www.regnum.ru/news/economy/1629259.html#ixzz2LyRORuT3
      Bravo. Delighted. He hears you, continue in the same vein. Probably, soon he will be engaged in flights of energy managers ... good
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 26 February 2013 08: 00
        +5
        Quote: Kaa
        And in the Murmansk region or the Altai Republic - even more several times. Well, how do they live ?.

        But no way! If this continues, the way out of this impasse will be one. One fine day, the offices of the housing and communal services and administrations will begin to smash, and then it will rush about, like by notes.
        1. Kaa
          Kaa 26 February 2013 09: 07
          +2
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          No way

          No way - if only I had said, or you. And I quoted VVP, and now, along the way, he defines something like a "new course" and after such a voiceover - instantly at attention to the housing and communal services - "I admit my guilt, measure, degree, depth ..." It's a pity that there are problems darkness, and the president is alone ... until the old packs are dispersed, so it will be ... point dive bombing ... but "carpet bombing" on bureaucrats is needed.
        2. w.ebdo.g
          w.ebdo.g 26 February 2013 15: 37
          +1
          about housing and communal services ...

          Igor Slyunyaev after a question from the president began to mumble ...
          )))))))))))))))))))))))

      2. krisostomus
        krisostomus 27 February 2013 02: 52
        -1
        Yes, there are no miracles and the President is not a Wizard. It is completely understandable and it has been repeatedly stated that state policy in market conditions is aimed at ensuring that the population gradually comes to 100% payment for the maintenance of their housing.
        Another thing is completely clear that heat and power equipment and especially heating mains are both physically and morally obsolete and are characterized by unthinkable losses of heat energy, and these losses must be compensated by someone: either the state or the population. The producer of heat energy simply cannot do this, since it will be bankrupt. Modernization of the entire heating system is needed - and this is a huge amount of money, while maintaining acceptable tariff growth rates for the population with a payback period of 25-30 years, or even more. There are no such investors yet. The state also has no such money yet. Therefore, it is simply impossible to establish technically justified heat energy losses in the fuel – boiler – highway – consumer – chain –– and therefore it is not necessary to talk about any reasonable tariffs. As a partial way out - the installation of automatic gas boilers in houses or on several houses. There is such an experience. But it also requires money.
    2. Goga
      Goga 26 February 2013 08: 12
      +3
      Tatarstan - Colleague, "expensive energy resources" are expensive because up to 70% of the price of the same gasoline is excise (taxes), and therefore gasoline prices do not change much even with a significant drop in oil prices. So this is not a question for the oil industry, but for the government ...
      So, the other day, in Bulgaria, the government that raised electricity prices with a bang flew into retirement ... And how many times have prices been raised in our country? And who "took off"? Is that money from our pocket ... fellow .
      As for the article - the quote - "... Russia begins to purposefully engage in structural policy, begins to engage in reindustrialization and ensures its economic growth ..." Who, personally who will deal with this? The Gref-Nabiulina ministry and how is his current minister of their fosterling? Yes, these stubborn "market monetarists" are firmly convinced that joining the WTO in itself will force our enterprises to modernize, and whoever cannot, then the "market" is what the hell with him, and they themselves will sit and watch - really work they still can't!
      1. kostella85
        kostella85 26 February 2013 11: 38
        -1
        Quote: Gogh
        So this is not a question for the oil industry, but for the government ....

        recourse In addition, the largest oil companies are state-owned (Rossneft, Gaspromneft)
    3. Avenger711
      Avenger711 26 February 2013 08: 22
      +1
      Do you seriously think that getting oil or gas somewhere in *** yakh beyond the Arctic Circle is cheaper, or at least comparable to pumping oil from under the sand almost immediately into a tanker? It is time to take up the mind and stop wailing about Russia feeding half the world, etc., the imaginary wealth that is actually impossible to get.

      And in China, electricity is produced by energy companies at a loss, this is the way the manufacturer of the final product is maintained.
      1. Tartary
        Tartary 26 February 2013 09: 47
        0
        Quote: Avenger711
        And in China, electricity is produced by energy companies at a loss, this is the way the manufacturer of the final product supports

        That's just it, that bureaucrats treat their people in the mass as cattle ...
        After all, what is written in the Constitution that the bowels belong to the people of Russia, etc.
        But what really? To tell or so everyone knows?
        Why is there no political will to support your people not only with shouts at local officials, with various stupid notions of ministries?
        But it turns out that the strategic objectives outlined, somehow implement, and a specific person is behind the fence of what is happening ...
        Well, the acre of his (the people) function is to work.
        The type is the same as in the USSR rechka:
        We don’t need the sun-US party (!) Shines,
        We don’t need bread, give me work!

        Any citizen of Russia should have the right to freely use the resources that the state receives from the raw materials industry, from the value added received from the production of other natural monopolies, those enterprises whose foundations were created under the USSR ...
        Such, for example, as Russian Railways ...
        It is necessary to create to the existing state. funds - the "National Development Fund", the funds of which should be spent in a simplified way through specific banks for the development of small (!) and medium-sized industries at a meager bank interest. Of course, the responsibility for such funds should be tough. Against crooks and scammers.
        In the current conditions, no citizen can pull the burden of the interest of the usurer banks. And the system of support and development of small and medium-sized businesses is rotten through corruption, although the conditions for the operation of the system "Center" thought out competently. Today, local distributors of federal money have all the conditions to develop small-scale production, because for 1 rub. the funds issued and used by small enterprises "Federals" reimburse 3 rubles. to the regional budget ... But the money for kickbacks is often distributed to trade and resource-producing enterprises, and to the service sector, and almost always to replenish the circulating assets of the oppressed corrupt businessmen, and not to projects of new industries
        Almost nothing sensible industrial was created and is not being created ...
        But the reports on the work done are always beautiful, but in numbers - go and figure out what is what ... The bureaucrats have numbers, but there is no sense "on the ground".
        The bureaucrats learned to launder money even on training programs for entrepreneurs. Letters were sent to the catalog of enterprises from neta, postal receipts to reports, but no courses, but money was laundered.
        A month, under 3 million rubles, they are laundered without bothering too much about themselves.
        This is around 30 million a year - nichrome itself small business ?!
        *** We are talking, of course, about regional centers ... And how much they squeeze out of small businesses according to other schemes and "stupid" kickbacks, one can only assume .................... ....................
        Ugh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    4. pav-pon1972
      pav-pon1972 26 February 2013 08: 28
      +3
      It's funny, but in China our electricity is much cheaper than in Russia they pay for it.

      In the mid-2000s, for example, the Khasansky district received electricity from China, bought by China in Russia. Moreover, electricity tariffs were almost 1,5 times lower in the region than throughout the Primorye ... (paradox).
      I don’t know how now ...
    5. kostella85
      kostella85 26 February 2013 21: 28
      0
      Speaking of Pattaya:
      He met a fellow countryman there, he himself is from Surgut, and works as a welder on Bovanenkovo.
      So, he is married to a secret, and how the shift ends he went straight to Thailand. Being a Thai citizen, a ticket from Moscow to Bangkok costs him about 150 bucks !!!!!!!!!, and the cheapest Salekhard-Moscow ticket costs $ 250!
      So, he lives a month in Pattaya, two in Yamal. Says huge savings !!!
  3. Magadan
    Magadan 26 February 2013 07: 23
    +7
    Zadolbali already with the eternal expectation of an "effective private owner".
    Even if such a person appears, his competitors will just stupidly bang him. Have you heard how a farm for 300 thousand pigs was opened in the Stavropol Territory, and immediately mysterious diseases appeared on this farm, which never existed? And all the pigs died. So much for "competition" in Russian.
    In short, dear rulers, it’s good to fool around. Finally build state factories! Believe me between the director hired by the state and the director hired by a private traderTHERE IS NO DIFFERENCE. Do not believe me, study the history of Apple and Steve Jobs. (Apple only worked efficiently, when Jobs was the director, and not just the owner)
    Now Russia desperately needs at least factories that produce plywood and normal boards. We have to carry these products from the USA if we want normal quality. Debilizm is complete for a country with 50% of the world's forests! Or will we wait another 20 years for an "effective private trader"?
    1. kostella85
      kostella85 26 February 2013 11: 46
      0
      Quote: Magadan
      Now Russia desperately needs at least factories that produce plywood and a normal board.

      Simply, the production of plywood, smallpox, brick, hardware is not innovation, all the technologies have been invented for a long time ........ Why should the iPhones such plants, they will not make him a new gadget !!!!!!!
  4. not good
    not good 26 February 2013 07: 50
    +3
    Even foreigners shout that it’s time for Russia to invest in its production and only our wise government, headed by the prime minister-dreamer, tells us how it will raise something not standing up. That there would be new programs, and most importantly the desire to implement them, first you need to send it’s a mediocre bunch of people to resign, after which they must be tough, consistent people and the prime minister must be a tough, consistent person, and the State Planning Commission will not interfere.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 26 February 2013 07: 54
      +1
      Quote: Negoro
      only our wise government, led by the prime minister dreamer,

      So I don’t understand, does Medvedev rule our country? As far as I remember from the economy, Putin reports to us in the Duma.
      What became fashionable in Medvedev to spit, found a scapegoat?
      1. zambo
        zambo 26 February 2013 08: 37
        +2
        What became fashionable in Medvedev to spit, found a scapegoat?

        Spit is no longer fashionable, I want to shoot ...

        They just found a goat in the garden ... (and the garden is our country).
      2. Kaa
        Kaa 26 February 2013 09: 12
        +4
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        What became fashionable in Medvedev do not care

        "Putin-Medvedev are twins brothers, who is more valuable than the mother of history? We say ..." Well, further, according to Mayakovsky, only one in the image of a strict but just father-breadwinner, and the second - a loving mother with a touch of liberalism ... laughing (without hints of unconventionality)
      3. not good
        not good 26 February 2013 09: 20
        0
        And no one controls the country. There is a great someone - the king-type - he broadcasts, and there is a certain substrate called the government - it kind of introduces the thoughts of the broadcaster into the life of the person, but what hasn't gone wrong ... the chief has no questions for his friends (see. history of the last 15 years) .As in an old joke: "... the plane is on autopilot ... hic ..."
      4. kostella85
        kostella85 26 February 2013 11: 49
        0
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        So I did not understand, Medvedev rules our country.

        He (Medvedev) runs the Minister of Economics, Finance, etc. So who doesn’t care?
        PS I also want to be in Putin !!!
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 26 February 2013 11: 56
          +1
          Quote: kostella85

          He (Medvedev) runs the Minister of Economics, Finance, etc. So who doesn’t care?

          Come on, when Putin was the prime minister and Serdyukov was under him, half of the Saite blamed Medvedev for everything. Now the prime minister has become Medvedev and he is again to blame. What post is not Putin's, Medvedev is to blame, such as a lightning rod. wassat
          1. kostella85
            kostella85 26 February 2013 12: 23
            -1
            The fact that the GDP should be responsible for Serdyukov is generally an axiom (a statement that does not require evidence). Moreover, the GDP must also be responsible for Medvedev - he took him to work !!!!
      5. DeerIvanovich
        DeerIvanovich 26 February 2013 13: 27
        +1
        Putin specifically assigned him such a role!
    2. Goga
      Goga 26 February 2013 08: 17
      0
      Negoro - Colleague, - quote - "... to recruit professionals for the profile ministers ... and the state plan will not hurt." - the year so in 1991, and better in 1985 it was necessary to think about it - so no, it's all gone ...
      As for government programs and their implementation - read here today's article about the aviation industry - everything will become clear "to tears."
      1. not good
        not good 26 February 2013 09: 29
        +1
        Unfortunately, any of the most sensible program of our government turns into a screen for effective managers, behind which it is convenient to steal state funds. Lack of control gives rise to permissiveness. One friend of mine, working in the presidential envoy, once said about his work: "... this is a mechanism, gears, until they spin at the top, no one will turn ... "in my opinion this does not require comments ...
  5. Strashila
    Strashila 26 February 2013 07: 59
    +2
    What can I say ... Russia doesn’t have an economic structure at all. Any structure, albeit the poorest one, implies some kind of logic ... but it doesn’t exist either. It was understood that there would be a certain self-regulated market, a thing from the point of common sense was initially nonsense, at the beginning it (the economy) has slipped to the level of a flea market ... now the flea market is a flea market.
    A private owner cannot be effective, let alone have a socially oriented component, it’s a world practice, the private owner is interested in the loot and in what form it was received, the last thing, and people as such are consumables ... call us what has become more efficient and better .. .no right, even the world monopolies are out. The whole private sector lives on servicing the budget of countries in one form or another ... on this, efficiency is discussed at the level of diving and rolling back. Only the state can be an effective, dominant manager, one owner .. only then will the economy become an efficient and socially oriented economy.
    1. not good
      not good 26 February 2013 09: 32
      +3
      I really like the joke about Gaidar. If my grandfather knew what his grandson would do, his grandmother strangled him.
      1. Goga
        Goga 26 February 2013 09: 49
        +2
        negro - Colleague, a gloomy joke turns out - the grandfather of this pig in the civil war was so distinguished that even in those wild times he was removed from the post of commander of a punitive detachment, and he later began to write children's books. So this is their family - the grandfather with a saber cut people's eyes and opened their stomachs, and the grandson of the reforms ....
  6. Predator-74
    Predator-74 26 February 2013 08: 14
    +1
    To start transforming the economy, moving away from the "wild market", you must first take control of the state, the main part of the economy, nationalize it, this applies primarily to heavy industry and energy. Further, it seems to me, it is necessary to "cure" and only then partially give them over to private hands, while maintaining control over them.
    This is of course my opinion, but no one except the state will be able to transform the real sector of the economy.
  7. CCA
    CCA 26 February 2013 08: 14
    0
    there was a substitution of domestic production by import
    But this practice just needs to be abandoned, in various ways increasing the demand for our own products ... Including the price component, with the help of indirect subsidies from the state for significant types of products ...
  8. Renat
    Renat 26 February 2013 08: 15
    -1
    That is, we live today. what they pumped out of the bowels then ate. Why does the prime minister go to these economic forums? Hanging out? Or again, uncles with the IMF or the CIA will decide how we live. Wouldn’t it be easier then to abolish the entire government and let it be openly governed from across the ocean. So at least it will be more honest.
  9. ism_ek
    ism_ek 26 February 2013 08: 55
    0
    Russia has no existential obstacles to economic growth and development

    I do not agree. The main problem of Russia is the low quality of products and low labor productivity.
    Well, we will borrow. Let's build ten car factories. AvtoVAZ is better not to guarantee anything
    We will borrow and build a highway to Magadan. How long will this highway last? How will we repay debts?
    There is no need to rush to economic growth. Product quality is the main priority of our economy. It is better to save and save than spend all resources "on trash"
    1. buga1979
      buga1979 26 February 2013 09: 32
      0
      save and save, so that fat uncle Sam could spend the extra couple of years on our stash, no better plants
      1. ism_ek
        ism_ek 26 February 2013 09: 44
        -1
        Quote: buga1979
        save and save, so that fat uncle Sam could spend the extra couple of years on our stash, no better plants

        In order to "build factories" in conditions of high oil prices, it is necessary to artificially devalue the currency. At the current ruble exchange rate, we are not competitors to China, and with Germany and Japan we are not competitors in quality.
        The ruble can be devalued only by increasing foreign exchange reserves, and increasing foreign exchange reserves is nothing more than direct investment in the US economy at the expense of impoverishing Russians.
        There is no way out, except for how long and tedious to improve the quality of our products.
      2. kostella85
        kostella85 26 February 2013 12: 00
        0
        Quote: buga1979
        It is better to save and save than spend all resources "on trash"

        As I understand it (extremely simplified), the idea: "It's better to save and save" is inflation, but: "spend all resources on infrastructure" is to stimulate economic growth. So the textbook on economics says! Maybe you've read others ism_ek? The name of the skinte, I will read it for general development! laughing
        1. ism_ek
          ism_ek 26 February 2013 12: 30
          0
          Quote: kostella85
          As I understand it (extremely simplified), the idea: "It is better to save and save" is inflation, but: "spend all resources on infrastructure" is to stimulate economic growth.

          Spending money on German autobahns or American highways is a good idea. They were built in the 30s and still serve.
          But spending money on the Chita-Khabarovsk Road, which already needs to be reconstructed, because it all went in waves - this is a bad idea. It’s already difficult to ride Kalina there.
          It's a bad idea to spend money on the Sochi Cut.
          The Russian economy and political system is not ready for a massive waste of money. There will be no effect.
        2. ism_ek
          ism_ek 26 February 2013 18: 06
          -1
          Quote: kostella85
          skinte, read for general development!

          Until 1984, the budget of the USSR was in surplus, the external debt was minimal. Everyone shouted: "Stagnation", "Horror", "NTR is passing through us"
          Gorbachev came with his comrades and decided to invest in infrastructure. "Citizens' money is lying around like nothing in a savings bank - let's build something good on it." Since 1985, the USSR budget began to be reduced with a deficit of 10% of GDP. In the first years, the GDP grew by 3 ... 4%. We spent 10% of GDP, and the economy grew by 3 ... 4% .....
          In the first years, the capitalists willingly lent, but when they realized that the USSR was developing "not quite according to textbooks," the debt tap was turned off.
          By 89, they had consumed both external loans and citizens' savings in Sberbank and the working capital of enterprises in the State Bank.
          The republics ceased to transfer money to the State Banks, as realized that state-owned banks are bankrupt.
          So, with good intentions, acting on textbooks, the USSR was destroyed.

          Where did you spend the money? For example, they bought completely new equipment for the Moskvich automobile plant. This is hundreds of millions of dollars. When the equipment was delivered, money for its adjustment was not found. As a result, this equipment was sent to scrap metal directly in the factory boxes in the late 90s. :(
  10. Avenger711
    Avenger711 26 February 2013 09: 25
    +1
    And what is offered? Phones to release?