Small numbers and expeditionary nature: problems of European NATO armies
In recent decades, European countries have reduced spending on the development of their armed forces. As a result, the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the armies began to decline.
For a long time, the problem of shortage of personnel and equipment was not solved, but now the situation requires urgent measures.
Lack of numbers
The problems associated with the shortage of military personnel in European armies have long been known. This issue is regularly discussed at different levels and various solutions are proposed.
For example, at the end of June the British edition of the Financial Times examined this topic. They examined available data and interviewed experts. The current situation was examined using the example of several countries.
With reference to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), interesting information was presented on the size of armies and trends in its change.
Thus, as of 2023, the French army numbered more than 203 thousand people, 181 thousand people served in Germany, and almost 161 thousand people served in Italy. The British armed forces had 144 thousand troops, and the Polish - about 100 thousand. For comparison, Estonia with an army of 7100 people is given.
Since 2013, only two of the countries listed have been able to increase their armed forces - Estonia and Poland. At the same time, the Polish army grew by only 1,1%. The Estonian Army showed a growth of 23,48%, but this growth should only be considered as a result of a low base. Great Britain, Germany and France have reduced their armies over 10 years - by 14,63%, 8,58% and 8,26%, respectively.
German infantry during exercises. Photo by the German Ministry of Defense
An article in the Financial Times states that the current size of armies does not meet national security requirements. For example, the Bundeswehr needs an additional recruitment of 20 thousand people. Poland also considers its army not strong enough and plans to increase its strength to 180 thousand people in the near future. Similar proposals are being made in other countries.
Current difficulties
It should be noted that the statistics presented reflect only the list of armies and do not give a complete picture of their real potential. The Financial Times estimates that European NATO countries have on paper about 1,9 million troops. However, according to the publication’s sources, in the event of a real conflict, they will be able to send no more than 300 thousand people to the combat zone.
In recent decades, the main goal of military development in Europe has been to optimize armies for participation in expeditionary operations. As a result of this realignment, NATO countries can work together to assemble a limited contingent to send abroad.
The military-political situation of the recent past as a whole did not require other capabilities from the armies. However, by now the situation has changed, and the armed forces should have a different appearance and potential. Since 2014, Europe has been literally frightened by Russian aggression and possible open conflict. The existing “expeditionary forces” will not be enough to confront Russia.
British Army grenade launcher. Photo by UK Ministry of Defense
The FT warns that attempting to wage a limited war against a well-prepared army could have serious consequences. The Russian army could destroy half of the European troops or even more in just a few weeks.
Since the European contingent is relatively small, there will be few doctors, signalmen, engineers and other specialists. The army will feel the losses among them especially acutely.
Sources of problems
The current negative situation has been developing over the past three decades. The current outcome is due to several key political, economic and organizational factors. Some of these factors persist to this day, continuing to have a negative impact on the overall situation.
The first factor is unjustified savings on the army. After the end of the Cold War, NATO countries in Europe decided to reduce defense spending by reallocating funds to other areas. However, excessive cuts led to a decrease in both the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the armed forces. After 2014, the military-political situation in Europe began to change, but it was not possible to quickly restore the lost potential.
There was also a problem with the distribution of budgets. The Financial Times noted that decision-makers often focused excessively on high-profile programs and the procurement of unique, innovative products. At the same time, more mundane issues related to recruitment and training received insufficient attention and funding.
Polish SPZR Poprad air defense systems on maneuvers. Photo of the Polish Ministry of Defense
Despite the end of the global confrontation, NATO member countries in Europe continued to participate in various military and peacekeeping operations, as well as international exercises. However, the scale of these actions did not require large numbers of troops and complex logistics. European armies gained experience in operating in such conditions, but stopped preparing for larger operations and lost the skills to conduct them.
In 2022, a new one was added to the existing problems of European countries. Under pressure from the United States, they began to provide assistance to Ukraine both in the form of financing and in the form of supplies of weapons and equipment. Money to support the “ally” was taken from the military budget, and weapons and equipment were seized from their own armies. This negatively affected the combat effectiveness of European armed forces and limited the possibilities for its restoration.
Proposed solutions
The issue of the number and potential of troops has long been the subject of discussion at various levels. Various solutions are proposed both for individual armies and at the international level.
Recently, a few days ago, the latest statements on this matter were made at the NATO summit in Washington.
The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, made a report on the state of affairs in the European armies. He said there are about 1,5 million troops in NATO countries' armed forces on the continent. Of these, only 150 thousand are in a state of operational readiness and can be involved in various activities. However, to achieve the required level of combat capability and collective security, an international force of 300 thousand people is required.
Interestingly, the information from the official differs significantly from the IISS and FT data to a lesser extent. This means that the real situation in European armies is worse than the relevant organizations believe.
Flight and technical personnel of the French Air Force. Photo by Dassault Aviation
Josep Borrell proposed several solutions to overcome the current situation. He emphasized that to solve pressing problems, 27 European states must work together and in a coordinated manner. However, it must be taken into account that each country has its own interests, as well as differences in the economy and industry.
The official suggests joining forces and focusing on common projects. For example, instead of many different types of tanks, only two or three models should be produced, and ammunition produced in Germany or other countries should be available to everyone.
Josep Borrell also noted that the creation of a single EU army is neither required nor proposed. However, European countries need developed armed forces and mechanisms for interaction in the military sphere. What exactly they should be and when they will be created was not specified at the summit.
Objective reality
The armed forces of European countries that are members of NATO are going through hard times. The short-sighted policies pursued in recent decades have led to a reduction in the size and combat effectiveness of armies. As a result, these armies, individually or together, can only participate in limited operations.
Despite this, NATO, the European Union and some capitals are scaring everyone with a possible war with Russia and calling for preparations for it. Such rhetoric seems unreasonable and illogical, since the current state of the armies does not allow them to participate in any conflicts. The leaders of NATO and its member countries must be aware of this and structure their policies accordingly, avoiding excessively risky adventures.
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